FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/19/17

by Paul Swydan

September 19, 2017

9:18	Paul Swydan: What is tonight’s best matchup? MIN (Berrios) vs. NYY (Sabathia) (54.9% \| 56 votes) CHC (Montgomery) vs. TB (Archer) (24.5% \| 25 votes) CLE (Clevinger) vs. LAA (Skaggs) (14.7% \| 15 votes) TEX (Perez) vs. SEA (Leake) (0.9% \| 1 vote) Other (4.9% \| 5 votes) Total Votes: 102

9:20

Paul Swydan:

Which Wild Card contender do you think has the best chance of winning the LDS should they make it there?

Arizona (41.0% | 46 votes)

Colorado (2.6% | 3 votes)

LA Angels (0% | 0 votes)

Milwaukee (3.5% | 4 votes)

Minnesota (1.7% | 2 votes)

New York (50.0% | 56 votes)

Other (0.8% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 112

9:23

Paul Swydan:

Do you think there is a clear choice for either MVP Award this season?

Definitely! (2.8% | 3 votes)

I think so. (25.4% | 27 votes)

Meh (14.1% | 15 votes)

I doubt it. (16.9% | 18 votes)

Definitely not. (23.5% | 25 votes)

Haven’t thought about it too much. (16.9% | 18 votes)

Total Votes: 106

9:26

Paul Swydan:

How many games do you think the Brewers will win in their series with the Cubs this week?

All 4, sweep, baby! (15.3% | 16 votes)

3 of 4, enough to stay in the division race (10.5% | 11 votes)

2 of 4, enough to stay in the wild card race (51.9% | 54 votes)

1 of 4, which won’t be good enough (20.1% | 21 votes)

0 of 4, broomed out of playoff contention (1.9% | 2 votes)

Total Votes: 104

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	99: Will Kershaw pitch 30 games next year?

9:01	Paul Swydan: I’ll say yes, though it is a fair point. This will make 3 of the past 4 years that he didn’t do it.

9:02	Paul Swydan: And I don’t think it’s just the Dodgers being cute. Each of the past two years, he’s had real, DL-able injuries. Maybe the Dodgers extended his stay on the DL to keep his workload down, but they weren’t phantom stints.

9:02	joe: Can EL Gary hit 40 homers next season?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Well, I think he has 40-homer power. But I’d always bet against a catcher actually getting to 40 homers, because they don’t play every day.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, sorry for being late

9:03	Paul Swydan: For reference, only 6 catchers have ever hit 40 homers in a single season – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&ty…

9:03	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: And no on Sanchez hitting 40 bombs

9:04	Paul Swydan: Certainly Gary Sanchez could join that group. And it’s actually really just 4 catchers – Piazza and Bench did it twice. But I’ll bet against him getting enough PT to actually pull it off.

9:04

Jackson: Does BaseRuns/Pythag record have a tendency to favor offensively-minded teams? Good hitting can run up the score, good pitching can’t run it down any lower than zero. Plus, good hitters will knock starters out and get to weaker relievers, while pitchers can’t actively make their opposing lineup weaker.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’m going to lean on Jeff for this one – he knows better than I do.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really, the teams that beat it have unbalanced pitching, starters and relievers. Bigger differences in runs allowed per game. Pythag assume even distribution.

9:06	BTinVT: Do you think Stratton can be a front end starter? Thanks

9:07	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. Stranger things have happened, but he’s in his first real major league action at age 26, and he’s been league average thus far. Nothing wrong with league average of course, but I’d be surprised if there was more there unless he drastically cuts that walk rate.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: No, he’s never had a K/9 over 9 (maybe once) and has walk issues in the majors. He has too far to go to be a front-end starter.

9:08	Gary: Am I the only one who feels that Yandy Diaz is severely underrated, even amongst people who kind of like him? He strikes me as current Joe Mauer who can play SS/2B and who presumably has power upside. What do you guys think? His Steamer projections are outrageous.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Not sure why you’re presuming that he has power upside — his career high ISO in the minors was .136.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think he’s rated just fine, sorry.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: There are some things to like with him but the playing time just isn’t there right now. The Indians are getting to the point of the Dodgers and Cubs where they are stockpiling MLB talent.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Too much talent is fine for a playoff team

9:11	Michael B.: Is it time to start Carson Wentz over Aaron Rodgers?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Wrong chat my friend, but no. Stick with Rodgers.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Wentz would have looked horrible if it was for that late TD. Rodgers

9:12	Murdoc: Is Devers current line of 289/347/478 about what you’d expect over the course of a full season?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yeah, and I think in the aggregate, that’s fine. It seems as though the league has figured out Devers a little bit, and he needs to re-adjust, but I’m sure he’ll be fine.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the AVG may be 15 points too high, but yes.

9:13	Cage: Is it about time that the Red Sox bullpen starts getting credit for being pretty elite? They’ve been great lately and the addition of Price is a game changer. Are they really that far off what the Yankees bring to the table at this point?

9:15

Paul Swydan: I’m skeptical of the addition of Price being a game changer. They’re only going to let him start innings — ie, they’re not going to let him come in in the middle of an inning — so his use is limited. But yes, the Red Sox bullpen has been great since Farrell stopped trusting Matt Barnes. It took him forever to clue in to the fact that Barnes just isn’t that good.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I still think the Yankees bullpen is better. It is actually underrated IMO. Teams with good bullpens make the playoffs. The teams usually have good starting pitching, fielding, and hitting also.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Adding Carson Smith back in is the real game changer. He pitched again tonight, which is his first back-to-back outings. If he can do that a few more times, he’ll be ready.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yeah, agreed that the Yankees ‘pen is better, but the Sox ‘pen is still good.

9:16	P: Would the Astros be well served to leave the left handed specialists off the post season roster (Liriano, Sipp…) and just got with the best bullpen pitchers? It seems forcing a bullpen lefty who hasn’t been particularly reliable isn’t necessarily the best use of roster space.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Great …. teams are worried about their playoff LOOGY’s. Enjoy the playoffs and winning and losing will come down to the studs performing. Not a LOOGY

9:18	Paul Swydan: It’s not a bad thought. The Red Sox don’t really have a lefty that you need to strategize around. Cleveland is a tougher call because a lot of their guys are switch hitters, and maybe you want them hitting from a certain side. But it’s not the worst idea in the world.

9:18	Murdoc: Should Gerrit Cole alter his pitch selection? He doesn’t seem like a guy that should have a slightly below average SwStr%.

9:20	Paul Swydan: His K% isn’t that far off from his career marks, but IIRC he has always tried to get weak contact over Ks. And he certainly gets his fair share of grounders. 29th among qualified SPs this year.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Looking at his pitch mix and results, I would have him drop the sinker (only 50% GB%) and the change. Otherwise, he just above average, not elite

9:21	joe: Is severino the third best pitcher in the AL? What is his future outlook

9:21	Paul Swydan: On history, you’d probably say Verlander. But yes, Severino is in the mix with Carrasco, Archer and Verlander for third best behind Sale and Kluber. I like Severino a lot, actually.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: No on third. Verlander is up there. I like him a lot. The third pitch saved him from going to the bullpen

9:23	Morris Buttermaker: Espn and mlb network are going crazy over the season homecrun record falling. If they break the record again next year does anyone care?

9:23	Paul Swydan: I don’t care this year.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not at all. Juice the ball and batters will take advantage

9:24	John: What about Paxton for AL pitchers?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Health is a skill. Paxton’s never even sniffed 150 IP in a season. Until he does, he wouldn’t be on my list.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I think McCuller’s skill is more than Paxton but LM needs to stay healthy

9:25	Emmett: Gary, Kieth, and Ron were just talking about having umpires call high strikes as a possible countermeasure to the HR-rate. Is there any chance there is data on umpires who call higher strikes and batters’ HR rates?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’m sure that could be dug up, yes. Not sure that we’d see anything concrete come out of it, but the data should be there at the very least.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Any increase in zone will drop HR totals (increase strikeouts) but I think the HR/contact (which should be an actual stat) would stay constant.

9:26	Bo: Aaron Nola or Jimmy Nelson long-term as the better top young NL pitcher?

9:26	Paul Swydan: For now, I’ll say Nola, just because shoulder injuries scare me.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Nola more. I don’t totally buy into the Jimmy Nelson transformation

9:28	John: Dave Cameron wrote about the potential end of Jose Bautista’s career today. Do the Jays have another veteran nearing his end in Tulowitzki and if so, is his contract even remotely moveable?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Never say never, but I wouldn’t anticipate the Blue Jays being able to move Tulo’s contract.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: It depends if they gain an advantage moving it. They will have to pay most of it if he is traded.

9:29

Who is Stubby Clapp?: Jeeze, sorry, accidental send. I watched the Cubs-Cards series this weekend and have a question. (Full disclosure: I am a Cards fan.) How do we weigh the balance of a player like Rizzo crowding the plate vs. the absurdity of the “unwritten rules”? If a pitcher tries to come inside and take back the inside corner he hits Rizzo and then a bean ball feud starts. But if the pitcher doesn’t establish the inside corner, Rizzo takes a base for a grazed sleeve. I am against the intentional beaning of players. What say you?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I think the way you back guys up is to bury sliders at their feet, like Pedro used to do to Posada, but I’m not the expert on that type of game theory.

9:30	Paul Swydan: What I mean is, I think guys that crowd the plate like Rizzo and Bonds are always ready for the inside fastball. You have to figure out a way to challenge/trick them with other stuff.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d give pitchers a ball or two inside. I don’t like guys who crowd. Now, the Molina HBP was crap. I wish umps wouldn’t give them the bases on those.

9:32	Archie Graham: What 3 baseball books do you consider “must reads”?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Ball Four, anything by Roger Angell, Moneyball for the references related to it.

9:33

Paul Swydan: Well, I’m not comfortable with the concept of a must-read. Even the baseball umbrella of books is wide-ranging. Do you want instructional? The Science of Hitting by Ted Williams. Do you want historical? Ball Four, The Teammates, etc. Do you want sabermetric? The Book. There are lots in each category, and we didn’t even get to biographies — my pick there would be Clemente by David Maraniss.

9:34	Minty: You expecting anything out of Francisco Mejia? Torn on him as my last OBP keeper

9:34	Paul Swydan: Not this season, but as a keeper, absolutely. I expect him to be a stud.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep him. I am worried he may not produce next season

9:35	Dres : Only 2 close division races, and both could be clinched by the weekend. Bummer? Or not a big deal?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I think it sucks, to be perfectly frank.

9:36	Paul Swydan: But, not a whole lot you can do about it. Hope next year is better.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Not a big deal. They won all year and deserve a break from the actions.

9:37

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Adeiny Hechavarria over the last 30 days: 92 PAs, .313 AVG, 5 HR,164 wRC+. BABIP of .350, but the biggest deviation seems to be that his HR/FB over that span is 23.8%, compared to a career 3.7%. Obviously he’s overperforming, but his glove is good enough that 85 wRC+ Hech is still a valuable player. Is he playing his way into a starting SS job for 2018?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I was under the impression that the Beckham trade was made specifically to clear room for him to be the starter in 2018…

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve liked him before. He will struggle but should have job somewhere in the majors.

9:38	Dominic: Is there a good way to reach out to teams with jobs posted that you know you cannot take the position? Many of the recent internships you posted are appropriate for me, but I’m still in school.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I would tell you simply to apply for the jobs and get your resume on file for when the positions DO become appropriate for you.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I don’t know of any other way to do it, to be honest. Obviously it’s easier to do this with the teams who ask you to email rather than apply online.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: And this is open hiring season. Teams are in flux as people are coming and going.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, lot of job posts this week.

9:40	Paul Swydan: I have more to do, in fact.

9:40	Tommy: Hi! I love you.

9:40	Paul Swydan: We love you too, Tommy!

9:41	Matt: I web scraped game logs from FG game recaps and am trying to reconcile the data with the player game logs I scraped. Having lots of trouble getting these to compare. Any idea where I can get this PA-level data much more easily?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I don’t, no, but maybe Jeff does?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: In-season, no. You can wait for Retrosheet to come out.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Ohhh….

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Scape MLB gameday … same source at Pitchf/x

9:43	Big Joey: Should Dynasty owners be deeply worried about Conforto’s injury/surgery?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Ask around for the source of it

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Not deeply but yes, it concerning.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I know I am. In general, I won’t keep a Mets player in a dynasty league until Alderson, Collins, and their whole medical staff get gone.

9:43	Matt: Jimmy Nelson a $7 keeper next year?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Matt my friend, we need more context than that. What’s the salary cap in your league? How many teams? How many players per team? Without any context at all, I suppose I’ll say yes, but I don’t feel good about it.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, looks good. I would expect him to draw around $15+ if healthy

9:44	Chris: What do you guys make of Matt Olson? Lifetime splits against lefties are concerning.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Perhaps you are also incorporating his MiLB stats, but strictly in the majors, an 89 wRC+ against lefties from a guy who hits left-handed isn’t a death knell.

9:46	Paul Swydan: And that’s only 48 PAs at the MLB level. Too early to say he has a definitive problem IMO.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, the league isn’t caring about adjusting to him. They just want the season to be over. I think teams will look hard in the offseason and he will struggle out of the gate in ’18

9:46	JM: Which team would have their near future outlook damaged the most if the ball reverted back to “pre 15′” standards?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Well certainly not the Red Sox, since they can’t hit home runs to save their lives.

9:47	Paul Swydan: The Brewers stick out to me as a team that has jumped the line because of their power.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: The Indians. Lindor and Ramirez didn’t hit HRs until the new ball.

9:47	Not a Rays Fan: Is it normal to love Kevin Kiermaier as much as I do? This is only referring to his baseball ability and not even his looks.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Totally normal. You do you.

9:48	Paul Swydan: brb

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Normal, yea.

9:49	Roger: The first five rotation candidates for Cincinnati next year are … Desclafani, Bailey, Castillo, Romano, Stephenson? Mahle, Garret, Finnegan, Reed?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Their rotation has the potential for huge variation. I could see five of those kids breakout (WIndians style) or just be dreadful

9:50	Big Joey: What do you guys think Benintendi averages the next 5 years? .300 25/25 100/100?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: All seem fine. The R/RBI mix with change depending on where he bats. Also the AVG and SBs seem high.

9:51	Tim: Kershaw and Kluber have the ERA and xFIP advantage; Scherzer and Sale have the FIP advantage. Who are your Cy Young picks?

9:51	Paul Swydan: He hasn’t hit .300 since High-A so I’m a little dubious of Benintendi AVERAGING .300, but the rest looks good.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I’ll stick with Sale and Kershaw.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll take Kluber (carry 2 of my fantasy teams to championships) and Scherzer. Kershaw missed too much time

9:52	Paul Swydan: True, Kershaw doesn’t have the bulk.

9:52	Big Joey: Conforto or Trea Turner in a keep-forever league?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Turner

9:53	Paul Swydan: Given Conforto’s uncertainty right now, I’ll say Turner. He may be the pick anyway due to his position.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: and the SBs

9:53	Bogs: Who’s your NL Cy this year? Greinke has gotten no media attention but he does lead all NL pitchers in bWAR and fWAR. Does he have a chance? Is Scherzer the favorite? What about Kershaw?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Speaking of Cy!

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think Greinke has a chance, and he’ll get narrative support for the Dbacks getting back to the postseason, but I would agree that Scherzer is the favorite.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: He may once people look a little hard. AZ needs to make the playoffs

9:54	Show Hey O’Tawny: Now for the important question: is Matt Olson’s optimal nickname Batt Olson or Matt Swolson?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I’m partial to Matt Swolson myself. Batt Olson is just going to sound like you pronounced Matt incorrectly.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Batt Swolson?

9:55	Matt: Let’s say the Yanks make and win the WC. Who do they hope they play – HOU, or CLE, and do you think they can take them down?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think the Yankees can take either team down, yes. Somehow, we’re not paying enough attention to the Yankees.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Houston, I’d not want to face Kluber twice right now

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: And the Yankees could win either series

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: So who had the Angels or Twins making the Wild Card?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Obviously we all did!

9:57	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-staff-predictions/

9:58	Paul Swydan: Literally no one picked Minnesota. 3 people picked the Angels.

9:58	Matt: I traded Turner and Stroman at keeper salaries for Conforto(same salary as Turner) and rental Darvish and Kimbrell in dynasty. I think I’m looking good to end in 2nd or 3rd. Did I mortgage too much of my future?

9:59	Paul Swydan: No that seems fine as long as Conforto isn’t totally broken, but now your fate rests in the hands of the Mets medical staff.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Good enough if you were trying for 1st when the trade was made