FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/23/14

by Paul Swydan

September 23, 2014

6:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Join me, and possibly Jeff, tonight at 9 pm as we potentially bid a couple of teams adieu, and see if anyone really wants to win the AL Central as well. We can also talk anything else on your mind! See you soon!

9:00	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. I think you’re stuck with just me tonight, you guys. Sorry about that.

9:01	Comment From Guest Best matchup tonight: STL at CHC

9:01	Paul Swydan: I mean, not really, but I like your spirit!

9:01	Comment From Salvo I can keep three of these five as cheap starters in 2014: Paxton, McHugh, Duffy, Fiers, and Derek Holland. Which two get the ax?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Assuming you mean 2015, I would give Fiers and Holland the ax, as I believe they have the least upside.

9:01	Comment From Nuke Laloosh 10 team, roster 30, keep 20. If Buxton stays healthy in the AFL, I’m planning on keeping him. Would keeping Sano, over say Taveras, be a case of keeping too many prospects?

9:03

Paul Swydan: Wow, keep 20? That’s a lot. But OK.

I think you just want to keep the best players. Right now, I’m not sold on Taveras, and neither do the Cardinals. They have Holliday, Grichuk, Jay and Bourjos to play out there as well, so I don’t even know if Taveras is an everyday guy next year. I’d rock Sano and Buxton.

9:03

Comment From Ryan
Is there anywhere I can find team stats broken down by, say, “top 3 starters” or “top 5 relievers”? It seems like that would make it easier to compare post-season rosters than relying on full-team data that include contributions from players who will never see the field in the playoffs.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t know of any place that does that work for you, no. BUT, you can create all sorts of custom leaderboards here at FanGraphs!

9:04	Comment From Rick Would you want your favorite team to make a run at Jung-Ho Kang?

9:05

Paul Swydan: I will admit to knowing nothing about him, but in general, all you’re spending on Asian players is money and the time it takes to scout them. Given the spending cap on Latin players, I think I would almost certainly want my favorite team making a run at most Asian players who don’t fall under said cap.

9:05	Comment From Rick Would you rather have the Orioles or Pirates rotation going into the playoffs? And how would you line up their respective starters?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I wrote last week at ESPN Insider that I would go Tillman, Gausman, Chen and Norris if I’m the O’s.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Hey cool people and Paul, sorry for being late.

9:07	Paul Swydan: For the Bucs, I would go Cole, Liriano, Worley and Morton/Volquez.

9:07	Paul Swydan: And I probably take the Pirates rotation.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:08	Comment From Stephen Do you think a “veteran presence” in a clubhouse at this time of the year really makes a difference for those clubs in the playoff hunt? Ibanez and Willingham don’t seem to be contributing much offense-wise.

9:09

Paul Swydan: I think it depends on the veteran. A guy like Jason Giambi has been roundly praised by his younger teammates for taking them under his wing in multiple cities – Denver and Cleveland at least. But not every guy is Jason Giambi. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that MOST veterans are not like this at all.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really if the manager is doing his job. What do they really have to do besides tell the new guys to get ready for more questions.

9:09	Comment From Ryan Since no one wants to win the AL central this year, what about next year? I like the Indians, but is that premature after only half a year of great pitching?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: And a half of horrible pitching. What happens with Scherzer may determine a lot.

9:10	Paul Swydan: It’s all premature until we see how the offseason shakes out, but I like the Indians as well. If Carrasco is half this good, and if Salazar can be a 4 at least, well then they’ve got their rotation mostly settled between those two, Kluber, Bauer and McAllister.

9:11	Paul Swydan: As I noted the other day, again at ESPN Insider, I sincerely doubt that the Tigers have the cash for Scherzer. They’re basically ALREADY at $140 million, which is only $20 million away from where they were on Opening Day this season.

9:11	Comment From Ryan The Angels have a poor farm system and lots of big financial commitments, but are they pretty well set up to contend for the next several years? With Richards, Skaggs and Shoemaker under control for a while, it seems like their rotation could be better than expected.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think their being set up to contend depends more on how slowly Pujols and Hamilton decline, and less on their starting pitching talent. We’ll see.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: If they can stay healthy until the end of the season. They are so thin at pitching.

9:13	Comment From Guest How many MVP ballots will Jeter end up on this year?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Five 10th place votes.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think Jeter is the Comeback Player of the Year. Or at least I’m hoping he is. I’d be embarrassed for any writer that listed him on his MVP ballot.

9:14	Comment From bucs_lose_again Am I the only one having big time issues with MLB.tv lately? It seems the player crashes at least three times per game anymore.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t mind in the 8th to 10th spots. pretty useless after to top 5

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t have that trouble, but I know that some do.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Only 3 times, I would take that rate anytime.

9:14	Comment From Guest #3 How can I tell Jeff Sullivan and Jeff Zimmerman apart? (other than their names)

9:15	Paul Swydan: One is tall and handsome. The other is Jeff Zimmerman. (ducks)

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Jeff Sullivan can write.

9:15	Comment From Doctor Internet Stream Niese at home against Stros?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: He is better than some of the dirtbags I am using this week to move up a couple spots in K’s

9:16	Comment From Guest Will Jeff be depressed when the Royals blow it this last week?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Jeff? Inquiring minds want to know!

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I expect it to happen. It is the Royals. They always disappoint, but usually sooner in the season.

9:17	Comment From Rated Rookie Sports (fantasy, especially) cliche that is tired and needs to go away: "[Insert player name] says hi."

9:17	Paul Swydan: COMPLETELY AGREE WITH THIS PIC AND SENTIMENT.

9:18	Comment From Lenard Opinions on Yelich’s future potential? Does a consistent .280/.370/.440 in his prime sound reasonable?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I think the OPS is probably 30 or so points high, probably more on the slugging side.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: It could happen. Yea, not sure he will walk and/or get plunked that much.

9:20	Comment From G What does Felix’s terrible start tonight do to the AL Cy Young vote? Who would you vote for?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. Let’s check back next week on that. Going to give it until Sunday.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Who cares about the Cy Young, he may cost me 1st place in my main cash league. I needed a normal Felix type performance.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Certainly it is going to help Kluber, if only in perception. Probably a lot of the old guard is going to bang Felix for not being clutch.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Yeah, also, what Jeff said. I picked up Kyle Hendricks in my league because I figure if he is bad, Felix picks him up, and now it’s gotta be the other way around. It’s working so far. Fingers crossed!

9:21	Comment From Brad Orioles said going 4 man rotation. Tillman gonzo chen and between norris or gausman for 4th spot.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think putting Gonzalez in the rotation is a big mistake. But what do I know.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Gausman needs to piggy back with someone, he is only good once through a lineup.

9:24	Comment From Meano Eno How many pitchers do the Red Sox have to sign for you to be comfortable with their SPs?

9:24	Paul Swydan: At least two.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: At least. Some teams are way going to over spend for the little available.

9:25	Comment From Lenard Bucs_lose_again, there is a fix (at least for PS3 where I had issues) in the mlb.tv forum. Basically uninstall, reinstall, update, open it up but don’t log in, change the video player to off in settings then log out and log back in and sign in.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Helpful (I think? Sounds like a lot of work) tip from Lenard.

9:26	Comment From Bomok Please say “This season was all because of the injury, David Wright will be a 5-7 WAR player next year”. And then tell me what you really think. Please?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Why don’t we just skip to the part where we tell you what we think? I think Wright has a couple more 4-5 WAR seasons left in him, but the days of him posting 7 WAR seasons are probably a thing of the past.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: “This season was all because of the injury, David Wright will be a 5-7 WAR player next year” and I think he has one more good WAR season in him, but is basically done being a top 20 player.

9:27	Comment From Bomok Did you know that March Madness has over 9 quintilloion possible outcomes? And that It would take everyone in America submitting a ballot a second for 900 years- no 2 alike- for all the possibilities to be covered?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I did not know this. So, thanks!

9:27	Comment From Brad everytime i start to get excited about gausman, jeff kills him on twitter or fg.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Jeff is usually right though, is the thing.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I am just stating the facts, he is 2 pitch pitcher and they have problems making it as a starter. Her is his stats for times through a lineup: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:28	Comment From Guest #3 Has Yordano silenced the early season critics who said he belonged in the bullpen?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Jeff was one such critic. What say you now, Jeff?

9:29	Paul Swydan: For my money, I think he is absolutely a starting pitcher long-term, but Jeff watches him more closely than I do.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: He developed a nice change and has held up as starter. Going forward the change will stay, not sure his body will hold up.

9:30	Comment From Bomok Dave is very confusing. So please just tell me straight out. Is clutch hitting luck or not? Dave said not to credit the manager for luck of Pythag record VS regular record, but to credit the player with clutch hitting. This is why he chooses Cano over Altuve. I don’t get it.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Since small guys are more injury prone (article is in Pauls inbox for THT publication).

9:31

Paul Swydan: Basically, Dave is saying that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill, and it can’t be taught. So, you give the player credit for getting those hits, because they actually got them, but you don’t credit the manager for imparting any wisdom, because there is no wisdom to impart that translates to the field.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I hope that was more clear. I’m not sure if it was.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t believe in clutch. Players, unless they were slacking the rest of the season (Reggie Jackson), just can’t turn it on. I do believe some player can’t handle pressure.

9:33	Comment From Bomok Why doesn’t XFIP adjust enough for ballpark that we need FIP-?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I’m going to let Jeff take this one.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: FIP- is also league adjusted and I don’t trust xFIP as much as I did in the past. It doesn’t move with ERA like FIP. It is one study I need to get done this off season.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Cool.

9:35	Comment From Hank What does McCarthy get this offseason? (year/$$) Any guesses/irresponsible speculation on potential landing spots?

9:35	Paul Swydan: 3 years, $35-40 million? And I’ll guess he goes nowhere, unless he really doesn’t like living in New York.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: 2-3 year deal with one of the power houses. One of the teams who miss out on Lester, Shields Scherzer.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: 12M to 15M per season.

9:37	Comment From Kyle O In a league with ~300 major leaguers kept are you keeping Rubby de la Rosa?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Assuming 200 position players, 100 pitchers – ya, I think I would keep Rubby. But I’m a big fan, so I might not be seeing it as clearly as I should.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: He would be close, probably. He looked like …poo … here at the end of the season.

9:38	Comment From Bomok To Paul: but why do we credit a hitter for the luck of situational hitting? Just because player “A”‘s hits came with players on doesn’t mean he’s better than player “B”. does it?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul ?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I don’t really credit players for the differences in their hitting in different situations.

9:39	Comment From Michael Matt Vasgersian just said Victor Martinez is his AL MVP on MLB Network. That network is treading dangerously close to ESPN these days

9:39	Paul Swydan: Let’s just say that much of the promise that MLB Network started with has not been realized. I don’t even get the channel anymore, and that’s fine with me. Not itching to watch it.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: At least MLB Network covers baseball, I didn’t like ESPN did anymore.

9:40	Comment From Ryan What do you think of Aoki as a FA target this year? Does he make sense for the Reds?

9:40	Paul Swydan: He does, but I fully expect that the Reds will do nothing, just like every other offseason.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: He makes sense for a lot of teams. He could be cheap, short contract and makes some great GIFs

9:41	Comment From Bomok Should we trust XFIP or FIP? DOES a pitcher have the ability to stop HR’s? Why doesn’t FIP take into account opp. ISO? wouldn’t that be a good teller of hard contact?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I trust FIP far more. xFIP is perhaps what should have happened, but I certainly don’t take that as gospel.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I like xFIP more in the past, but found he doesn’t move along with ERA as velocity declines. The HR/FB rate is note constant for a hitter. Let me get the link.

9:43	Comment From Hank Are the Pirates going to catch StL? They could be 1 behind in the loss column after tonight – and how did that happen? (seems like StL was in cruise control when they worked over MIL a little while back.

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no, but it would certainly be a lot of fun if they did. I like the Pirates, and I don’t care much for the Cardinals.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: No, 20% chance without looking.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Link to xFIP article: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:46

Comment From Bomok
Paul Swydan:
Basically, Dave is saying that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill, and it can’t be taught. So, you give the player credit for getting those hits, because they actually got them, but you don’t credit the manager for imparting any wisdom, because there is no wisdom to impart that translates to the field.
“you credit those hitters for getting those hits” yes they got the hits, but why did he provide more value than the guy who got the hits at times when runners aren’t on base?

9:47	Paul Swydan: First, I was just trying to explain what Dave said. Second, clutch hitting doesn’t imply that there are runners on base.

9:48	Comment From DC What would Jayson Werth get as a free agent this offseason?

9:48	Paul Swydan: More than he is making right now. That contract is looking better and better every year.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I still wonder if some player may be better off with 1 year deals after off years to build up their value.

9:50	Comment From dgrussel If you’re the Orioles, what do you offer Hardy to stick around?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I probably just make him the qualifying offer. If he stays, great! If he leaves, just as great!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Qualifying offer

9:50	Comment From Bomok Did you notice the similarities between Werth’s first year in Washington and Grandersons first year in NY?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not basing anything on a sample size of one.

9:52	Paul Swydan: If Granderson somehow piles up 1.4 WAR in the next five games, I’ll give you that one. I don’t think it’s happening though.

9:52	Comment From dgrussel Trust Wainwright in ’15 enough to keep him for $25 in Ottoneu? steady starters is what kept me between 1st and 2nd this season

9:52	Paul Swydan: Definitely.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, especially for $25

9:54	Comment From Bomok Please rank the top 5 GM’s.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I want to make some smart comment on the makes and models of General Motor cars, but just don’t have it tonight.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Beane, Rizzo, Dombrowski, Huntington, Friedman, Epstein, Sabean, Cherington, Duquette all in the conversation.

9:56	Comment From Bomok Is it a slow night? you’re answering alot of my questions, Not that i mind. In fact, i’m very grateful. Thank you!

9:56	Paul Swydan: No, and I’m not meaning to ignore others. Sorry.

9:56	Comment From dgrussel Jeff is such a Debbie Downer/Negative Nancy/Pessimistic Patty. He’s like the Eeyore of baseball compare to Paul

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe you are asking good questions.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: So?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah, but that is because Jeff is smarter than me. If I was smarter, I’d be more pessimistic. Ignorance is bliss!

9:57	Comment From Rated Rookie Do you think Baez can cut down on the swing-and-miss enough to be more than a young Dan Uggla at the plate?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, but that GIF was too good not to post.

9:58	Paul Swydan: For the record, I one time clocked my sister on a backswing with a giant Louisville Slugger wood bat. My dad was horrified.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now my answer is no.

9:59	Comment From IsIt2015Yet? Pirates clinch a post season spot!

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yea, Pirates! I wonder if anyone in Pittsburgh remembers that I said they should cut bait on the season back in June. Crap, why did I just bring that up?