FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 9/26/17

10:20

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best matchup?

MIN (Colon) vs. CLE (Tomlin) (3.8% | 4 votes)

CHC (Arrieta) vs. STL (Martinez) (66.0% | 68 votes)

MIA (Urena) vs. COL (Anderson) (6.7% | 7 votes)

TOR (Happ) vs. BOS (Sale) (16.5% | 17 votes)

TB (Snell) vs. NYY (Montgomery) (4.8% | 5 votes)

Other (1.9% | 2 votes)

Total Votes: 103

10:24

Paul Swydan:

Who do you think wins the World Series?

Boston Red Sox (4.4% | 6 votes)

Chicago Cubs (11.1% | 15 votes)

Cleveland Indians (31.3% | 42 votes)

Houston Astros (9.7% | 13 votes)

Los Angeles Dodgers (12.6% | 17 votes)

Washington Nationals (9.7% | 13 votes)

Arizona Diamondbacks (5.9% | 8 votes)

New York Yankees (12.6% | 17 votes)

Minnesota Twins / AL WC 2 (0.7% | 1 vote)

Colorado Rockies / NL WC 2 (1.4% | 2 votes)

Total Votes: 134

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:00	Justin Verlander: How are my Hall chances looking these days?

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are in. I’ll be able to vote for you. I just hope the standards for pitchers starts dropping

9:01	Paul Swydan: Right now, you’re still 12 WAR shy of Andy Pettitte, and I never thought Pettitte was a Hall of Famer, so I’d say there’s some work to do.

9:01	Paul Swydan: But you’re on track.

9:01	Young Oakland: In OBP leagues, is it realistic for Olson and Chapman to be top 15 in respective positions for 2018 fantasy?

9:03	Paul Swydan: A .306 OBP is pretty terrible, so if Chapman is top 15, he’s 14th or 15th. Olson suffers from the depth currently at 1B. I’ll say no to both.

9:03

Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, it may be hard for Olson at 1B. Here are four early mocks to get an idea:

Justin Mason

@JustinMasonFWFB

All 4 #2EarlyMock drafts are running!
couchmanagers.com/mock_drafts/?d…

couchmanagers.com/mock_drafts/?d…

21 Sep 2017

9:03	PitchClocksPlease: It is depressing that it’s the last After Dark Chat of the season.

9:03	PitchClocksPlease: My Tuesday routine now has to change. It has been…vote on poll questions, go to gym, return home, see how everyone ended up voting, follow chat in real time. (Sad Emoji)

9:04	Paul Swydan: Your Tuesday routine needn’t change at all – we chat throughout October and the offseason too!

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: The only change maybe if/when games are going on.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Though during actual playoff games there might be live blogs that are run by other staff members.

9:05	PTBNL: Aaron Judge is having the least clutch season of all time. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&…

9:05	Paul Swydan: Kris Bryant is having a pretty unclutch season as well. Interesting.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: And Bryant is at #11

9:05	Paul Swydan: Haha Jeff

9:06	Murdoc: Wilin Rosario leads the KBO in home runs. Will he get another shot at MLB?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m too slow

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: No, unless he can now catch

9:06	Paul Swydan: I never thought Rosario needed to go to the KBO in the first place, but people were so down on his defense. I hope he gets another shot.

9:06	Big Joey: Would you be shocked to see Conforto have a great season next year?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I’m always shocked when a Mets player does well.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it might be good, but he won’t be in the MVP discussion

9:07	Paul Swydan: The injury is just a huge unknown. If he’s healthy, I would expect him to play well, but I can’t say with any certainty that he will be healthy.

9:07	PleaseNoTomlin: How much are the Yankees looking forward to teeing off of Josh Tomlin at Yankee Stadium in ALDS Game 4? How stupid are the Indians to neutralize the advantage of their historically good pitching staff by making Tomlin a playoff starter?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’m sure Tomlin will be on a short leash. Francona had no problem pulling his SPs early last year, and with Clevinger moving to the ‘pen, they can basically take a tandem starter approach with Tomlin.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I see it as a bullpen game. They have the arms to quickly replace him

9:09

Schilling and Pence: Machado…will end up with “ok” fantasy numbers, but certainly not what his owners (including me) drafted for, and he’s been incredibly inconsistent day to day–lots of empty 1/4s with a few 5/5 multi HR games here and there. Should we believe the EV stats and assume this will all even out, or is he just not going to reach the ceiling some would have predicted (in part because he’s been overswinging all year).

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: And Salazar

9:09	Paul Swydan: Yeah and Salazar.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I think Machado will be fine, but if you’re wary, try and kick the tires on trading him this offseason.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d believe some of the EV stats. Also, owners need to expect +/- $10 in value from any player. And the top guys have more downside since few can go much higher.

9:12

Big Joey: Fantasy Question: How do you feel about keeping 2 players that play the same position, meaning one has to be a UTIL hitter? For instance, if you had Correa and Lindor. Are you pumped two have two young premium studs or are you trying to move one just for the sake of not clogging up your UTIL spot?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I go back and forth. I’m usually not pumped about it, but I’ll consider it. I’m considering it right now in a keeper league, where I have Arenado and Devers. Obviously I have to keep Arenado, but do I want to keep Devers too? I think I do, but I’m not 100% sure yet.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d move one without there being an MI spot. Util needs to be saved for a DH, OF, or 1B

9:13	Paul Swydan: There’s nothing wrong in theory with clogging your UTIL spot if you go in with a clear strategy. You just have to commit to a different strategy is all.

9:13	Big Joey: Does Vlad jr make it to the majors next season? And if so, would you go the extra mile to acquire him in a 12 team, 6 player keep-forever league?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Whether he does come up or not, I’d definitely go the extra mile to get him.

9:14	Paul Swydan: brb

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure about next year. The Blue Jays won’t likely be contenders so they have no reason to rush him (i.e Moncada). So you’ll be clogging one of only 6 spots with someone who won’t play. Now I like him but not as a keeper yet.

9:15	Steve: Do you believe Matt Harvey can bounce back and be as good as he was in previous years?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Not a chance. He is going to need to re-establish himself as someone else. I’m not sure his ego will let him.

9:16	Paul Swydan: I don’t believe that, no.

9:16	Jon Lester: Am I an a-hole because I can’t appreciate the fun that happens at the ballpark. Lackey always taught me to never have fun… that nacho guy drove me nuts? Am I wrong here?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Who cares and what do you have against nachos?

9:18

Paul Swydan: It was obviously an odd take, but the thing I come back to is that before Magic and Isiah kissed before Game 1 of the 88/89 NBA Finals, teams were usually pretty antagonistic to each other. So I’m not too surprised by Lester’s reaction, even though it was with a fan. But like Jeff said, who cares?

9:18	Pablo Devers: Do my body issues concern you? I am strikingly similar to Pablo and I have tailed out significantly.

9:18	Paul Swydan: No I don’t think that’s even remotely a fair comp.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I see you moving to 1B or DH in a few years.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think more like Miggy

9:19	Paul Swydan: Sandoval is listed as 5-11, 255 lbs. Devers 6-0, 195. That’s literally a 60 lb. difference, and there’s a damn good chance that Sandoval’s weight listing was generous.

9:20	Avisail Garcia: How long do I have to do this before people believe in me?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Another year, probably.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, good story but you really rode that early BABIP.

9:21	Dr Evil: Devers is not under 2 bills.

9:22	Paul Swydan: If you say so.

9:22	billsaints: Bold prediction. Ohtani to the Rays. He doesn’t care about money or fame. They have none and no one goes to their games. They will invest in the best way to develop 2-way players as they will have two. That’s as far as i can reach, but i still have a sneaky feeling…

9:22	Paul Swydan: Goodness that is a bold prediction. Saying that the young man doesn’t care about money is one thing. Saying he doesn’t care about fame seems like quite another.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: No, if he takes a pay cut, he’ll play where he can get to the postseason. And I was wrong, Garcia kept the BABIP up. Off to see how good….

9:23	Fangraphs: Do you guys go to FanGraphs at all?

9:23	Paul Swydan: We do!

9:24	Paul Swydan: Please buy our new t-shirt! https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/do-you-go-to-fangraphs-at-all/

9:25

Mac: If somebody were to vote for a player like Justin upton for MVP, would you vote for NL where he finishes the year on his merits from both leagues, AL where he began on merits from both leagues, or would you treat NL and AL upton as separate players and could technically have him be the MVP of both leagues (not that it would happen, just curious hypothetically)

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Garcia with #16 highest BABIP (min 500 PA) since 1980 and highest since 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=50…

9:26	Paul Swydan: I don’t think the last thing you said can be correct.

9:27	John: Think the Indians trade a catcher this offseason and Mejia comes up a few weeks into next season?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: My gut says no to messing with a good thing. I think it comes down to the starters trusting him.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I can’t see them trading Gomes and rolling with Perez and Mejia, and I can’t see Perez having any trade value. My guess is they give Perez two months, and if he still is rocking a sub-.300 OBP they just send him back to Triple-A or let him go if he doesn’t have any options lef.t

9:29	weezy: will either of you be on the live chats for the WC games next week? Thanks for doing this style of chat all year.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure. It will probably get decided on Monday

9:30	Paul Swydan: I haven’t spoken to Cameron about the chat schedule next week. We’ll probably wait until Monday to make that announcement, but rest assured, the Wild Card games will be live blogged, and probably the first couple of crazy LDS days as well.

9:30	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Has (x)FIP kept pace with the home run surge? Been looking at Chris Archer’s stats and the major discrepancy between his fWAR (4.4) and bWAR (0.8) and his home run problem. He’ll finish with an ERA north of 4 again despite great K/BB numbers.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Not sure, that’s a good question.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: FIP is fine, xFIP, maybe not. I’ve had issues with xFIP for a while as it works for 75% of pitchers and just wrong for others.

9:32	Nic: Curious for your take on the AL MVP race.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m biased towards Altuve but it’s a crazy race.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I think I’d vote for Judge. If you want to give Altuve bonus credit for staying focused while his home ballpark and city were ravaged by a historic hurricane, I wouldn’t begrudge you that viewpoint, but I think I’d go Judge.

9:35	Jimmy Ballgame: From your take…who are the starting three for the Cardinals outfield next year?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think Pham, Fowler and Piscotty works.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Pham, Fowler and Piscotty.

9:37	Chris Sale: I feel like I’m being hosed on this Cy Young ballot again. Do the first four months of the season not count? Kluber isn’t close to me in fWAR.

9:37	Paul Swydan: They do count, but it’s hard to overlook 9 HR in 29 IP in September.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Because that’s really, really bad.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d still give it to you.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Kluber was horrible for two months, when he pitched

9:38	Paul Swydan: And by bWAR, Kluber is at 7.9, Sale at 6.2.

9:38	Paul Swydan: So it’s not cut and dry by any stretch.

9:38	Ernie Bank$: Kris Bryant NL MVP? Follow up, why not?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Not clutch enough. Reason to take Altuve over Judge. Clutchness matters.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t have any beef with people who vote for Bryant.

9:40	John Oleruds Helmet: Can the Astros really trust Colin Mchugh in the playoffs when he walked Rougned Odor 3 times last night?!

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, he probably just assumed Odor would swing at crap.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:41	Paul Swydan: Yeah I wouldn’t sweat that. It’s the exception that proves the rule sort of thing.

9:42	Al: Did you guys see Hicks’ catch today.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I did. Pretty sick.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Pretty sick, Chubbs!

9:43	Jack: Christian Vazquez reminds me a LITTLE bit of Yadier Molina, am I crazy for that?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Like they are both catchers?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Maybe not crazy, but I don’t see it quite yet. That’d sure be swell though.

9:44	Tom: Should the Orioles pick up Wade Miley’s $12M option for 2018?

9:44	Paul Swydan: NO.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: no

9:45	Jimmy Ballgame: I read somewhere that teams have much more data than what is publicly available. In your opinion based on rumors/what you have heard….is there that big of a data difference?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. Scouting reports on everyone and Trackman on all their guys. Trackman in bullpen and batting cages.

9:46	Paul Swydan: There really is that big of a data difference, yes. The teams have way more data now.

9:47	Cage: Anthony Rendon has been just as good on a better team?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t begrudge anyone a Rendon vote either, though Rendon’s defensive bump seems larger than it should be.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to help me win Tout Wars so he’s been great

9:48	Maximus: Do you think the Brewers or Rockies will make big offseason purchases, considering how much success they’ve had on a “rebuilding” year?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. The Rockies made a splash with Desmond. It didn’t work out, and they might need another year to see what they have.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’d be very surprised if Milwaukee did.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: No on Rockies, maybe some smaller pieces. I’m not sure with Brewers. I don’t think either should put too much in a single player because if that player struggles (Braun), they are handcuffed for a while.

9:50	Brad: What happened to that Pennsy woman who always posted in your chat how hot rendon is? Haven’t heard peep all year.

9:50	Paul Swydan: There are a couple of Pennsy comments in the queue right now. Pennsy never sleeps!

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Correct

9:51	Brewers: Should the Cubs be worried about how far along we are in our rebuild when many of our top prospects haven’t been called up? Can you guys pray for Jimmy Nelson with me.

9:52	Paul Swydan: The Cubs probably should yes, though if Nelson misses half of next season that’ll set them back, some.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Cubs just worry about the Cubs, they have enough issue to deal with. Jimmy Nelson is likely out the whole season right?

9:53	Mokajige: Of the potential WC teams (ARZ, COL, MIL, STL) who do you think presents the biggest challenge to the Dodgers?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Arizona.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: AZ’s pitching

9:55	billsaints: After tonight’s game Clint Frazier will be 1 or 2 AB’s from losing his rookie eligibility. You think the Yankees care about that and will sit him for the rest of the year so he has a shot at winning ROY in 2018?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I doubt the Yankees care.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No, they can still catch the Red Sox which would be huge.

9:56	Jack: I am intrigued by Mallex Smith, do you think he can be a starter for the Rays long term? Seems like the floor for him is slash and dash 4th OF, is a realistic ceiling Jarrod Dyson?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Dyson’s a decent comp but he has to make more contact and put those legs to work

9:57	Paul Swydan: So far, Smith doesn’t seem to have the defensive ceiling that Dyson does.

9:57	Paul Swydan: But I do like Smith.

9:58	billsaints: Ohtani doesnt like fame at all. He wants to be the best he can be, but doesn’t go out and avoids press. Nice article on him here. The Nippon Ham Fighters sound like the Rays of Japanese baseball http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/big-read-meet-shohei-otani-next-b…

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, I still don’t see him going to Tampa

9:59	Paul Swydan: We’ll see. I would still be very surprised.

9:59	Paul Swydan: But I like your optimism!

9:59	Prince S. Leia Fielder: So Sale basically lost the Cy Young tonight huh?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I think so, yeah. Four homers in 5 innings is a lot of homers.