FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 9/6/16

by Paul Swydan

September 6, 2016

9:02	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Jeff may be late, but we’ll get started.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Trying out my Gamechanger priority list. It has me on STL-PIT right now, I assume because the LI > 2.

9:03	Spenny: Bottom of the ninth, down one, you can send up one batter to lead off: Trea Turner or Billy Hamilton?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Turner, easily. I want the guy who has the higher chance of getting to first base. I’ll worry about the rest after.

9:04	Carrotjuice: Does Dan Szymborski no longer do chats for Fangraphs?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I will check, but I assume he didn’t do one this week because we didn’t publish any content on Labor Day.

9:04	Eastern nc: 20 team keeper would you leave out Soler, Gurriel, or Edwin Diaz?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I would cut Soler.

9:05	Eastern nc: Keeper again: keep six h2h already have Xander, Rizzo, Miggy, Trout, pick 2 from Dahl (platoon?) Benintendi, J Fernandez, Bregman. Killer B situation?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Gotta keep Fernandez. Really can’t go wrong on the last one – whichever you think fits your team best.

9:06	Stu: If an elite reliever, such as Miller or Jansen were given the entire offseason to train to be starters in 2017, how would they fare?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Not sure. Usually guys don’t want to do that, so it’s hard to judge.

9:07	Jo-Jo Reyes: Freddie Freeeeeeemannnnnn. Talk about him.

9:08	Paul Swydan: He has really turned it around. At the end of May, it looked like it might be his worst season yet, and now it might be his best. Pretty huge turnaround.

9:08	ChatzMcGee: Without cheating name the most valuable 1B in all of baseball. Then comment on it.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Without cheating, I’d say Rizzo.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Ha, that’s pathetic, I was literally just talking about Freeman. Shows what I know. It’s been an odd year for first baseman, now that I’m looking.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Lot of guys at +3 WAR, but no one really shooting the moon.

9:09	Rufus T. Firefly: My fantasy season rests on Kershaw. How many starts does he get? Do they let him throw 100 pitches? Is he going to be nearly as good as he was?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, but I’m right there with you. I think the number of starts will rest on how the NL West plays out.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I would say yes, they’ll let him throw 100 pitches when he does pitch.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi, I will jump in on the next question Paul picks

9:11

Darth Plagueis the Wise: Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth Plagueis “the wise”? I thought not. It’s not a story the Jedi would tell you. It’s a Sith legend. Darth Plagueis was a Dark Lord of the Sith, so powerful and so wise he could use the Force to influence the midichlorians to create life… He had such a knowledge of the dark side that he could even keep the ones he cared about from dying. The dark side of the Force is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural. He became so powerful… the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his apprentice everything he knew, then his apprentice killed him in his sleep. It’s ironic he could save others from death, but not himself.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I’d love to know why this comment was submitted. It’s literally just the quote from Episode III…

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: And that is the comment you choose Paul …. thanks.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Sorry Jeff!

9:12

Playoffs?: Say the Nationals open the playoffs against the Dodgers, as looks increasingly likely. Considering the Dodgers relative struggles v. LHP this season, where would you throw Gio Gonzalez? Still just game 4, assuming Stras is healthy, or do you try to get him work elsewhere to take advantage of matchups?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t bump Scherzer or Strasburg for Gio, I know that much.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: No way Gio gets the call

9:13	Paul Swydan: I’d be fine with Gio starting Game 3.

9:13	Jamie Sayer: Which Rockies hitter is more exciting: Raimel Tapia or Tom Murphy?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Neither

9:14	Paul Swydan: Definitely Tapia for me. He’s only 22, Murphy is 25.

9:14	Patrick: If the Red Sox win the division, at this point does Rick Porcello have a legit Cy Young argument? I mean, I don’t think he’s the best pitcher in the AL, but his W/L record and good team could appeal to traditional voters.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: I have a feel he will be top 3, but Kluber gets my vote (if I had one) right now

9:15	Paul Swydan: He’ll get some traditional love, and in a year without a clear frontrunner, that might help propel him. Whether that makes him legit from an argumentative standpoint…no.

9:15	Patrick: Seriously, what is up with Xander Bogaerts? His 2nd half this year looks like his 2014 2nd half, he’s been awful over the past few months. Time to consider moving him down in the order?

9:16	Paul Swydan: They showed a segment on NESN recently where Remy talked with the Sox assistant hitting coach about fixing Xander’s swing. Since then, he has hit better.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Some major 2H contact issues. Looks more to do with his eye than swing

9:17

Yanks: There was a recurring discussion in August’s chat yesterday regarding Robinson Cano’s Hall of Fame chances, specifically compared to his elite 2B peers, Kinsler and Pedroia. The three are in the same ballpark according to fWAR, and August’s contention was that all three would be borderline cases assuming a standard aging curve.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Realistically, Pedroia is going to have a leg up on them. One, he won an MVP award. Two, he’s played his whole career with one team. No matter what we think of the analytics, those soft factors will always come in as tiebreakers.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Oh, and Pedroia has the most World Series titles as well.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Cano and Pedroia will get more love with more Boston and NY HOF voters. Kinsler is borderline right now for me

9:19	Paul Swydan: Jeff do you mean Pedroia and not Kinsler? I don’t understand why Kinsler would get love from Boston voters…

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I put the wrong name … try to correct

9:19	Paul Swydan: 🙂

9:19	Jim Lonborg: Are we sure that Moncada is better than Shaw at this point, considering both offense and defense? The metrics think Shaw is decent at 3rd.

9:20	Paul Swydan: As I wrote today at Boston dot com, Travis Shaw has a 69 wRC+ since June 1. He’s a bench warmer who had a good two months.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: He may not be right now, but it is close IMO. Moncada is the future so go ahead and play him

9:21	Paul Swydan: My thoughts exactly. Shaw isn’t a guy you put in front of Moncada, even if he might be 5% better right this second.

9:21	Jawn VanBenschoten: What could the Twins reasonably get for Dozier in the offseason? What is a likely landing spot?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Top 20 prospect probably. I am not sure of his contract details, but something useful, but not great

9:22	Paul Swydan: Kansas City could be a good fit.

9:23	Guest: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays to end the season… is Paul going to have a heart attack when Bautista and Donaldson come to town and sweep the carmines and miss the playoffs?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Nope. While I still root for the Red Sox, I don’t get nearly as down about losses as I used to. Realistically, no loss could ever be worse for me personally than Game 7 in the 2003 ALCS. I was catatonic for that whole weekend.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think the Red Sox vs Blue Jays will kill Paul, my money is on beer and cheese

9:24	Paul Swydan: Cheese is definitely the frontrunner.

9:24	Jim Lonborg: If either of you knows: where’s the best place to sit in Wrigley and in Comiskey (or whatever they call it now)? I’m going to both either this month or early next season.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I have never been to either one, sorry.

9:25

Paul Swydan: I have never been to Comiskey. The one game I went to at Wrigley, I sat in the left field bleachers, and it was awesome. Sammy Sosa did the kiss and point thing to my friend and I because we stood up and yelled his name, and a group of drunk Wrigleyville firefighters kept buying too much hot dogs and beer, and kept just handing them to us, which was great, because we weren’t 21 yet.

9:26	Paul Swydan: The firefighters told us they were on duty. Incredulous, we said “what if there’s a fire during the game?” And they looked at us and said, without a hint of irony, that no one would dare call in a fire in Wrigleyville while the Cubs were playing.

9:26	Paul Swydan: It was a great time to be alive.

9:26	Rick: Who is in the Royals’ rotation next year?

9:26	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: What a mess

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Duffy and Ventura. Kennedy. Pull names out of a hat for the rest. The minors are bare. Strahm will get a shot

9:28	Paul Swydan: Jeff is as optimistic and effervescent as ever!

9:28	Phil: Hi Paul, is Sandy Leon high on your list of biggest surprises of the season?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: He should be

9:28	Paul Swydan: The highest, yes. He literally had six extra-base hits coming into this season.

9:29

another bad dynasty manager: A little while ago, there was an article in FG that provided a link to the best players, as measured by WAR, that have ever played baseball. But that link also showed defensive values (DRS, UZR) for players like Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson and Arky Vaughn, among others. How was it possible to assign defensive values to players who played in an era when there was no videotape? Were the numbers created on the basis of testimony of old players, newsreel footage or some other means?

9:29	Paul Swydan: It is done so using Total Zone, or TZ. You can read up on TZ here – http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/tz-tzl/

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Was it just a position adjustment?

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, guess not

9:30	Jeff Fassero: Do you think the Cardinals deploy Reyes as a starter next year or do they end up tantalized by the heat and use him to solve the bullpen?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I would never underestimate the stupidity of Mike Matheny to ruin a perfectly good starting pitching prospect by making him a reliever before he fails at being a starter. They did it to Trevor Rosenthal, after all.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will limit his innings and go with bullpen and then starter, but I haven’t heard anything.

9:31	Roger: Who produces more WAR over the next three years: Correa, Lindor, Seager, and Turner; or Altuve, Dozier, Cano, and Murphy?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Shortstops vs. Second baseman! I will say the shortstops. Not convinced that Dozier and Murphy will be good three years from now.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Good question, but I will take the younger guys based on age and health and thereby being in the field more.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Oof. Big 2-run double from Kevin Pillar right there.

9:33	Jim Lonborg: Is it reasonable to be encouraged by Joe Kelly’s inning last night? Is it reasonable to expect more out of him than Uehara?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Sort of. It was the Padres. And yes. Uehara needs to be extremely limited in his usage if they don’t want to break him again. Kelly should have more flexibility.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: One inning will not overwrite years of subpar performance.

9:35	2017: What does the LAD rotation look like next year? Kershaw, Maeda, Ryu, Urias, De Leon? But what about after the inevitable injuries?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now, I would only bet on the first couple. The is a crap shoot right now.

9:36	Paul Swydan: The inevitable injuries will inevitably happen, and then they will turn to other guys. They’ll still have Kazmir and McCarthy under contract, and at least one of those guys is going to be in the rotation. You might see them try to trade Ryu this winter.

9:37	Paul Swydan: A package where they trade Ryu, McCarthy + prospects for Greinke could line up salary-wise…just spitballing.

9:37	Horace: The QO: If nobody had to give up a draft pick for signing a FA, but the team who lost the FA would get a compensation pick at the end of the 1st or 2nd round, would that be enough to make the QO system livable for all?

9:38	Paul Swydan: It would definitely be better than the current system, that’s for sure. Not sure if it would be enough to make it livable for all though.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No …. I just hate it everything about it.

9:39	Dave Aunepetitegraine: If you had to describe Carson Cistulli in under 5 words, how would you?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Top five human being. I love Carson, it’s just fun to pick on him.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Carson’s one of a kind. Oops 5 words. Carson’s the greatest

9:41	Jack B: Chances of the Brewers winning a world series in the next five years?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I like their odds. I have been very impressed by the Brewers’ moves under Stearns & Co.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: That start at 3.3%. Maybe half that so 1.6%

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: It will be higher because 3.3% per year

9:42	Dave Aunepetitegraine: Gary Sanchez has a cannon arm… Time for people to hear about it.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe around 8%

9:43	Paul Swydan: Consider it heard about.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Noted

9:43	Paul Swydan: Look at Jeff doing math over there. You go, Jeff!

9:43

Jim Lonborg: Thoughts on the Ortiz usage question, regarding both last night and the next two games? Should handedness trump circumstance? Separately, what do you think about using him in a situation in which there’s a high likelihood that he’ll be walked (but another hitter wouldn’t be)? Would you take the free baserunner, even at the risk that a better opportunity for him to hit might arise later in the game?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Depends on the situation. But yes, happy to take the free base runner in general.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Handedness over circumstance IMO. Let them walk him.

9:45	Dave Aunepetitegraine: As a Red Sox fan, are you rooting for the yankees to come back right now?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Eh, I guess. I’d first root for a 20-inning game, and then whoever wins, everyone loses.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a Red Sox fan, and I would never root for the Yankees

9:45	mike will: Who holds more value, Blackmon or Tanaka?

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: At the trade deadline, Tanaka. Offseason, Blackmon.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Huh. What an interesting question. In fantasy, definitely Tanaka. In real life…it would depend on the medicals. Tanaka seems to be well past his elbow trouble by now, but perhaps the worry is always lingering?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure I agree with Jeff on the winter part. There is no pitching available this winter. The Yankees could probably get a fair bit for Tanaka if they made him available and teams were comfortable with the medicals.

9:48	Rick: If forced to pick one, would you do the Greinke signing or the Kennedy signing from this past off-season?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Greinke. I’d always rather bet on the star.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Greinke

9:48	mike will: Is Kris Bryant on his way to being a hall of famer?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’m not ready to go there yet.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Just like Dale Murphy and Nomar were?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: And Don Mattingley?

9:49	Jawn VanBenschoten: Do the Yankees really take guys like Torres, Frazier, Mateo and develop them into major league players or was it all an elaborate scheme to turn them into major league stars that they can afford a la Dozier/Braun when the asking prices are lower in the offseason?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Does it matter? Either way, the Yankees are in great position.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: The Yankees did an almost perfect partial reload

9:50	Ryan: Does it bother you guys at all the rosters expand in September? Some people complain about the rules not being the same throughout the year, but as long as everyone plays by those same (changing) rules, does it really matter?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I hate it. I like Dave Cameron’s idea a while back to make the 1st month the one with expanded rosters

9:51

Paul Swydan: I think where people get bent out of shape is that some teams will load up the whole 40-man roster, and some teams will only add one or two guys. In other words, there is a lot of wiggle room in those rules. I think people would prefer to have those rules tightened. But for the most part, it doesn’t bother me.

9:51	fallout boy: hi paul and jeff, would you trade Kris Bryant for Rougned Odor and Aaron Sanchez in full dynasty league?

9:52	Paul Swydan: No – not sold enough on Sanchez to justify giving up Bryant.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Bryant side

9:52	Josh Schecter: I was offered this trade in my dynasty league: (12 team, 5X5 Roto, $260 salary cap) My Melky Cabrera $5 3yrs for Jason heyward $14 3yrs Will Heyward out perform Melky over the next 3 years?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yes. I would do that trade, assuming you can float the $9.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Heyward side

9:54

Jeremy Klein: I am in an 18 team dynasty league (first place). We keep 28 players on a 40 man roster. I can not move in Saves. I need SP and, on offense, HR, Runs, OBP, Avg (in that order). The team I would be trading with is in a close race in saves with my two nearest competitors.

Fair? Too much? Too little?

I offer: Mark Melancon and Justin Morneau
I get: RA Dickey, Chris Carter, and a draft pick. I am thinking 3rd or 4th round; thoughts?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Seems fair to me, though the idea of trading for draft picks when you’re in first place strikes me as a little too cute. Flags fly forever, I would focus on shoring up this year’s roster.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: It would basically be Carter and Pick for Melancon. I would do it and as Paul said, move the pick

9:56	Fan: Madison bumgarner leads Tom Tango’s cy young tracker, among all AL and NL pitchers in fact. In your opinion why isn’t he garnering as much attention for the award?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Because people tend to think of San Fran as a good team rather than single out their players individually?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Not sure, to be honest. Bumgarner is great.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Bum had been really good, but not Kershaw great. It’s tough to measure up to Kershaw’s past few seasons.

9:58	EvanC: Cano has such an advantage in bWAR and will get to 3000 hits. He’s the only lock of the three. (Just talking about voting, not personal opinion, although I do think he’s the best of the three)

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: If he gets the 3000 hits, he is in for sure.

9:59	Paul Swydan: You’re just claiming he’ll get to 3,000 hits? I’d love to see that, but I’m not sure I’m willing to say that he’ll just average 150+ hits for five more seasons of his career. That’s a tall order.

9:59	Cam: Corey Seager is awesome. I’m in a conference call at work right now, and all I can think about is how I’m looking forward to seeing him hit today. That is all.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Sorry you’re on a conference call. That sounds terrible.