FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 9/9/14

5:17	Paul Swydan: Hi guys, join Jeff and myself at 9 pm ET, and we’ll chat with you live during the big KC-DET matchup tonight. We’ll take all our normal questions too, so the other 95% of you who don’t care about that game needn’t worry! See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I just helped my neighbor move one of those old, heavy TVs, so the adrenaline is FLOWING!!!!! Woo!

9:02	Comment From Pale Hose Will complete teardown rebuilds go out of style? It seems like if a team stays mediocre-ish they will have quicker turnaround time and might even luck into a playoff spot.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul – Want to move 9 railroad ties with me tomorrow?

9:02	Paul Swydan: YES!!!!!

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if they have anything to rebuild around. The key is staying mediocore

9:03

Paul Swydan: Pale Hose – I don’t think they have ever really been in style, because in order to have one it means you F’d up your team so irrevocably that you had to burn it all down and start over. It’s why teams like the ’03-’04 Tigers, and this recent Astros team are remembered in infamy for so long.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: and don’t go all Philly.

9:04	Paul Swydan: And, for teams who were considering it, I think Houston is a cautionary tale, because I really don’t see the Astros getting to 90 wins with the core they have, even the guys that haven’t graduated yet.

9:04	Comment From GSon Even though the teams involved in the Buehrle v Arrieta are not going to factor into the playoffs, this is an excellent (and the best matchup, imho) of the night.. ot

9:05	Paul Swydan: Fair enough. It was between that and TB-NYY for the last spot. Call it east coast bias.

9:05	Comment From Guest When will the bleeding stop in oakland?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Who knows, but why not now. Tough to tell why is really started in the first place.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I mean, we’ve seen this before. The Sox in ’11, the Mets in ’07. Sometimes the bleeding doesn’t stop. Hopefully for Oakland, it will. Losing Russell and then not getting their World Series would be a real bitter pill to swallow.

9:06	Comment From Harrison How much does an FG writer get paid? If that’s too personal, can you at least say how much on a per article basis? How been dying to know this about FG and other baseball sites. Thanks guys!

9:07	Paul Swydan: I think that’s a little personal to tell you what we make right now. I am happy to tell you that when I started in 2011, I got $10 an article. As for what people get on the main blog, I don’t even know – Cameron or Appelman could answer that.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I get paid very little and what little I get is from behind the scenes work.

9:07	Comment From Colonel Obvious Can we please, please, please have the playoff odds for 4/15/2014 published?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I checked on this when I saw this comment earlier while I was making dinner. Consider it on my list!

9:08	Comment From Pennsy Where is Rendon on your NL MVP ballot?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know if it is possible with the way everything is setup.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Somewhere from 5-9, RE: Rendon.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Top 10, but not for sure. I will look more into it once the regular season is over.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think the main point on the NL MVP is that it is still pretty fluid. Posey coming on in the last month has complicated things quite a bit.

9:09	Comment From Jheff Marcus Stroman, legitimate ace? At least does he have the upside of an ace?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Upside of an ace, yes. Tons of plus pitches. All with good bite. I love him.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think he has that upside, ya. Among starters with 100 innings pitched, his 2.75 ranks 10th in baseball. Tied with Jordan Zimmermann.

9:11	Comment From Steve Is a Jays rotation of Stroman-Norris-Dickey-Buehrle-Hutchison good enough to make them a contender?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but the rest of the AL East isn’t going to stand still.

9:12

Paul Swydan: Maybe. I’m sold on Stroman for next year, and I’m sold on Buehrle’s floor. I’m not sold on Dickey’s floor – he can be very bad at times. I’m not sold on Hutchison being this good again, and I haven’t seen anything from Norris at all.

They’ll also need some depth behind that. But yes, on paper it has the makings of a rotation that is good enough to help them contend.

9:12	Comment From Timmy and Tommy Since much of Buxton’s value is defensive, is he the better real life Twins prospect and Sano is the better fantasy option?

9:13	Paul Swydan: You would probably say that, yes. But it’s too early to tell, especially if Buxton steals a lot in the majors.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably, but I would like to see how each does in the upper minors for healthy half season.

9:13	Comment From Guest Where does Kershaw rank in the pantheon of all time greats…Top 50?

9:14	Paul Swydan: If Kershaw never threw another pitch, he’d be at 35 WAR, which no, wouldn’t get him close to the top 50. I think when it’s all said and done, if he stays healthy, he may blow past top 50 and into the top 25. But he’s not to either milestone yet.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: He is a top 10 pitcher IMO right now and could move up. right now he is comparable to Koufax and Gibson IMO.

9:15	Comment From Scott Fantasy baseball is sooo much better than fantasy football. Thoughts on Darvish in a dynasty league? 12 team roto standard 5×5. Looking towards next year and beyond. Would you trade him and Lawrie for Donaldson and either Smyly or Odorizzi? Which one? Thanks.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Scott is correct. Fantasy football sucks. I love Darvish in a dynasty league. I would not do that deal. Hang onto the top shelf talent unless you get top shelf talent back.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Darvish injury issues worry me. I would only expect 150 IP from him. I like the trade for Donaldson and Smyly.

9:16	Comment From Guest #2 Jeff /And/ Paul? When was the last time the two of you were together for this chat?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t think we’ve ever been in the same room for one of these, because when we see each other we’re usually drinking, haha.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Never? Did we ever do it in AZ?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. We did the Ottoneu draft together when you filled in for Klaassen, but never the chat.

9:17	Comment From Guest #2 Soler: great cubs rookie, or greatest cubs rookie?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Soler has cooled off considerably, and I am going to wager that the Cubs have had better rookies in their history.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not versed on my Cubs rookie seasons, so I will go with great Cubs rookie season.

9:18	Comment From Bomok With more news on David Wrights shoulder still hurting, can we write off this (2.0 WAR season) as a fluke bad season because of injury? As of now would he still be on Dave Camerons top 50 trade value list?

9:20	Paul Swydan: If this is who he is going forward, then no, he wouldn’t end up on the top 50. But I’m not ready to admit that yet. Jeff might be though. He’s the injury guy.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: The problem is the injury may still bug him for a while since he never really rests it and lets it heal. The 2 WAR seasons may end up being the norm.

9:20	Comment From Rated Rookie Paul Swydan and Jeff Zimmerman.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Is that from Ricky Bobby? Nice.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I want be waffles.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: to be

9:21	Comment From Zach Is there a stat that compares strikeout rates by era? similar to what era+ does.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not that I know of but the math is not that hard.

9:22	Comment From Rated Rookie Danny Salazar worth keeping? I plan to keep him because he makes it interesting.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: K+ = K%(for player)/K%(for league)

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so on Salazar, the tools are there. He could put them together and go Carrasco on the league.

9:24	Paul Swydan: Look at that. Boom, thanks Jeff! And yes, I still believe in Salazar.

9:24	Comment From Bip Vargas, Castellanos or Kendrys for ROS in OB% league?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Vargas, the dude rakes.

9:25	Paul Swydan: I’d roll the dice with Vargas.

9:25	Comment From zmiko Thoughts on Tyler Matzek?

9:25	Paul Swydan: My thought is that he still needs to earn a place in the Rockies’ starting five for next season, but that he’s earned the right to be the first or second guy up once the injuries roll in.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t watch him much, but the numbers are good-ish. I should add him to my quick look list.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Also, I wonder if he saved the scouting directors job this year. That was a record deal for the Rockies that Matzek got, and for the longest time it looked like there would never be any ROI there.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Yes, Jeff, do that!

9:26	Comment From Timothy Braves keep Heyward, Upton, or both?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I say Upton. I’ll be very surprised if they pony up for Heyward. The bidding on Heyward could be monstrous. Not a lot of 25-year-old MVP candidates who hit free agency.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know for sure. I could see them a little strapped for cash.

9:28	Comment From Bomok An average defensive center fielder who has a 50% K rate and a 50% BB rate over a full season. Good player or bad player?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Awesome player. A .500 OBP would be huge. Since he has some speed to play CF. Might be a 8 WAR player.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yeah, what Jeff said. People would hate him though.

9:29	Comment From Bomok To Jeff: But he has a 0 SLG

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yeah, JEFF.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: So. Doesn’t matter.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Yeah, BOMOK.

9:30	Comment From Mike Thoughts on Ozuna’s production next 3-5 years?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I will look up what he will be in 150 tonight or tomorrow.

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’m more bullish than bearish. I could see 9-10 WAR or so over the next three years.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: 150 games

9:31	Comment From Random How many calories do you think Dee Gordon eats a day?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Man, that’s one of the weirdest questions we’ve been asked in awhile. Probably a lot?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: more than me.

9:32	Paul Swydan: And Jeff eats a lot, you guys.

9:33	Comment From Bomok Get Dave an interview for the Diamondbacks GM job. Then they might compete a little.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Dave has historically said that he would make a bad GM. Probably none of us would make a good GM. We’d be better AGMs.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Having LaRussa around will make sure it is a true baseball person

9:34	Comment From Bruce Dare start Ryu at SF this week, Giants so hot recently and they’ve bashed lefties all season?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah, but it’s in SF and I’m guessing Ryu is one of your better pitchers. Gotta start him.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I would. I probably don’t have many better choses.

9:35	Comment From Diego Would an MLB version of Hark Knocks be entertaining?

9:36	Paul Swydan: You’re talking to the wrong person, because I’ve never watched that show and find the concept to not be entertaining.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: No, have you ever seen spring training.

9:36	Paul Swydan: But, probably not, unless you like watching baseball players play golf poorly.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Scherzer out of the game after 6 2/3. Tigers still in the drivers seat though.

9:37	Paul Swydan: For now. 10 outs from that bullpen could be terrifying.

9:37	Comment From Rated Rookie Has Bogaerts done enough lately to fend off rumors of his demise as a ballplayer?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I think so. I think we’re back to “how good will he be next year.”

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, update on the 50%BB% player. Some initial numbers puts his hitting around 4 WAR alone and .364 wOBA

9:39	Paul Swydan: Interesting.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Xander will be fine.

9:39	Comment From Bomok Thanks!

9:39	Comment From Rick Has anyone in Boston’s rotation over the last month impressed you?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I like De La Rosa. Webster and Workman have definitively NOT impressed me, and the jury is still out on Ranaudo.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: When healthy, Buchholz can be really good.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Buchholz is fine. Hoping he’s not the #1 or #2 next season, but we’ll see.

9:40	Comment From Timmy and Tommy If I keep Sano or Buxton, will either help me starting next year for a dynasty?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I don’t think either helps at the beginning of the 2015 season, no.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: No, maybe in September.

9:41	Comment From Guest #2 Who can name more mlb players between the two of you? About how many teams can you name 20 of their Major League Players?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Are we counting 40-man rosters or active rosters? If we’re only talking active rosters, probably no more than 20. If I can go to 40-man, I have some more wiggle room though, and maybe could get up to 25. And, I bet I know more than Jeff. But it’d be close!

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now on the active rosters, I would be horrible. I am guessing Paul. I probably spend too much time covering local baseball.

9:43	Paul Swydan: But with just cause – Jeff just got published in Baseball America! Too cool.

9:43	Comment From I want be waffles Just commenting to test out my new username.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Nice.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think that username is a go!

9:43	Comment From Steve Buechele Is Josh Harrison a legit NL MVP candidate?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Nooo….but I expect him to get some votes. Which would be a shame, because if Harrison costs McCutchen an MVP….hoo boy!

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Candidate, yes. Winner no. He will get some love IMO.

9:44	Comment From Rick Hardy, Markakis and Cruz: The Os should give a qualifying offer to which ones?

9:44	Paul Swydan: None of them. All three would be best off accepting a qualifying offer.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: which may be fine with Hardy.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yeah, maybe I could see Hardy. Def not Markakis or Cruz though.

9:46	Comment From Zach Another stat question, shouldn’t we look at offensive hard hit balls? They’re the hardest balls to defend. So instead of rewarding the players for the bloop hits reward them for the hard hit outs.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Mark Simon looks at these all the time. I think it’s interesting. Not sure of their predictive power though.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: The xBABIP values I publish only use them. Harrison is hitting a ton of them.

9:47	Comment From Bomok How do you guys chooe the Q’s on a live chat? Does someone else do it? Do you ick the esiest ones to answer? The funniest ones?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul does them all.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Generally speaking, I pick them. I just try and pick unique ones.

9:48	Comment From Ryan You really think Cruz would accept a one year deal after the year he had?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I think he would be best off accepting one. Even after the year he had, I don’t expect a team to sacrifice a draft pick for him AND pay him handsomely.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: It depends if another team will give him a long term deal.

9:49	Comment From Bomok For all live chats? or just yours?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Just ours. Each chatter picks his own question.

9:49

Comment From I want be waffles
Does Beltre have more 5+ WAR seasons left in him after this? He’s been outstanding again this year. Follow-up: Heading into this season he was already a borderline HoFer, how long does he have to keep this up to be a lock? Surely his sub-par seasons will be forgotten by the time he’s eligible.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: He may have one or two. I am surprised he has been able to stay on the field. It will be interesting how much of his defense will be taken into account.

9:51

Paul Swydan: I think he has at least one more in him. I think he’s got to play well for a couple more years, but he’s one of those guys whose defensive reputation has always been so good that when he hits the ballot, his advanced defensive numbers will be given more credence than perhaps other players would.

9:51	Comment From Jeff Francour How much do we understand about the game of baseball at this point? Percentage wise

9:51	Paul Swydan: Somewhere between 85-90%?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: The game, quite a bit. There is still always more.

9:52	Comment From Joe Any chance Victor wins the MVP?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Well, there’s always a chance, but I certainly don’t see him winning.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Not right now.

9:53	Comment From Guest What to do with Ryan Zimmerman?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Swaddle him in bubble wrap and hope he stays together? No, you put him back at third. Asdrubal Cabrera doesn’t need to start every day.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Vegas act. People could gamble on how close his throw gets to 1B.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Hahahaha. The house always wins!

9:55	Comment From Guest What franchise is in the best shape for the next five years?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Cubs and Red Sox.

9:56	Comment From Bomok to guest: Mets!!!

9:56	Paul Swydan: Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, with Pirates as a darkhorse.

9:56	Comment From Mike Is J. Zimmmerman essentially a goner with Giolito’s strong season in the minors this year?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I don’t think the two things are related at all, actually.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I have always been a goner.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Hahahaha

9:57	Comment From Guest Whom should the Cubs target if they decide to try to swing a trade for a pitcher?

9:58	Paul Swydan: To trade? Probably Hamels and/or Lee, because they could probably get them for less if they just pay the whole fare.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Kinsler just shoving it in Jon Daniels’ face again with that dive and throw.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they shotgun the FA market this year and hope to hit on a player or two.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I think so, too. Get one pitcher and the rest of that rotation fills out nicely.

9:59	Comment From Bomok To Guest: Wheeler for Russell

9:59	Paul Swydan: Um, no. That’s not happening.