FanGraphs Audio: Mike Newman Goes to College
February 15, 2013
Episode 307
FanGraphs prospect analyst and proprietor of ROTOscouting Mike Newman is forced by the host — largely against his will — to discuss the college game and its relevance to his (i.e. Newman’s) process as a prospect writer.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)
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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Related to your “WAR regression discussion”.
I have been winning fantasy leagues for years with this basic knowledge a friend and I discovered maybe 10 years ago with some math:
Age related improvement is less strong than regression to league average performance.
Adrian Peterson comes in and is amazing (and more importantly way above league average) as a rookie and EVERYONE is expecting better things from him the following year. But in pretty much every sport that augurs for a worse year next year not a better one. The math is a little different in each sports, but fundamentally if you take 100 Mike Trouts a lot more of them are going to have a worse year next year than a better one.
A large portion of that is injury (your typically only have amazing years when you go injury free), but even when you take out injury seasons it STILL generally holds.