FanGraphs Audio: Mike Newman Goes to College

Episode 307
FanGraphs prospect analyst and proprietor of ROTOscouting Mike Newman is forced by the host — largely against his will — to discuss the college game and its relevance to his (i.e. Newman’s) process as a prospect writer.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

We hoped you liked reading FanGraphs Audio: Mike Newman Goes to College by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Bobby Chopsticks
Guest
Bobby Chopsticks

Related to your “WAR regression discussion”.

I have been winning fantasy leagues for years with this basic knowledge a friend and I discovered maybe 10 years ago with some math:

Age related improvement is less strong than regression to league average performance.

Adrian Peterson comes in and is amazing (and more importantly way above league average) as a rookie and EVERYONE is expecting better things from him the following year. But in pretty much every sport that augurs for a worse year next year not a better one. The math is a little different in each sports, but fundamentally if you take 100 Mike Trouts a lot more of them are going to have a worse year next year than a better one.

A large portion of that is injury (your typically only have amazing years when you go injury free), but even when you take out injury seasons it STILL generally holds.