FanGraphs Chat – 10/30/13

Dave Cameron: The baseball season could end tonight. Let’s talk World Series. Or off-season stuff.

Dave Cameron: And, despite the hypocrisy because of my “no fantasy questions” rule, I’m going to plug my own fantasy league for a second. I started an Ottoneu league two years ago to help raise money for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society. In the last two years, we’ve raised about $8,000 for cancer research. Now, the league has two openings, and we’re auctioning them off to the people who will offer to make the largest donations to TNT.

Dave Cameron: If you’re interested in joining the league, send a tweet to @dcameronfg stating how much you’d be willing to donate to get one of the two teams. Once we have a list of bidders, I’ll send those folks more information.

Dave Cameron: Okay, let’s get this thing started. We may be looking at a shortened chat again today, as the puppy might have to take a trip to the vet this afternoon if she doesn’t stop throwing up and start showing some energy.

Dave Cameron: But I’ll be back tonight for the Game 6 live blog, so there should be hours of time to hang out later.

Comment From JEB
World Series? End tonight? With Wacha on the mound? Nawwwwwwww.

Dave Cameron: Lackey is no slouch himself.

Comment From JAC
Which would you rather have pitching for your team in a must-win playoff game: an elite starter that had to be used in a traditional way (100 pitches) and an average set-up guy/closer OR the Cardinal bullpen used any way you want (presumably 1-2 innings each from Rosenthal, CMart, Siegrist, Lynn, Axford, etc.)?

Dave Cameron: The bullpen.

Comment From Guest
Cuban atletes are going to be able to sign contracts soon. Canada doesn’t have economic or travel restrictions. Can the Jays sign these

Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays are part of MLB, and are governed by the rules set for by Major League Baseball.

Dave Cameron: So, no, they can’t just start signing Cuban players because they’re in Canada.

Comment From kilroy
With the gyroball seemingly debunked, will we ever see a new pitch again?

Dave Cameron: There are only so many ways to spin a baseball. I think any “new pitch” now is just going to be a variation of an existing pitch.

Comment From 2ndHS
Would rather run an outfield consisting of Khris Davis (LF), Gomez (CF), Braun (RF); or Braun (LF), Gomez (CF), Aoki (RF)? Assuming Braun and Aoki are approximately equal defenders in RF, the question becomes: Would you be willing to sacrifice some defense in LF for the potential offensive boost of Davis’ bat over Aoki’s?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what the Brewers are trying to do. Davis probably has more of a future than Aoki, and I don’t think the 2014 Brewres are going to be contenders, so you might just choose youth over experience.

Comment From Ben Cherington
if you were the Red Sox, would your leadoff guy be Ellsbury, Pedroia or Nava?

Dave Cameron: Ellsbury.

Comment From Prince Fielder
Why was I ever signed for 200 million?

Dave Cameron: Mike Ilitch is old and wants to win a World Series before he dies, long term ramifications notwithstanding.

Comment From kilroy
Is it possible the lincecum deal is less about peripherals and more about increased revenues. Maybe $/WAR is headed to ten mil faster than we thought?

Dave Cameron: Baseball has seen rapid inflation in prior years, but it’s never gone to guys who had replacement level ERAs before. This is new.

Comment From Arquimedes Bozo
I’ve heard 2 reporters (Jason Stark and Greg Amsinger?) say that the Cardinals are 8-1 in elimination games since the start of 2011 postseason. I seem to remember the Cards being up 3-1 on the Giants last year before losing 3 straight. Any idea what the difference may be here?

Dave Cameron: I’m pretty sure that “elimination game” means that they could be eliminated, not that they could eliminate the other team. So the 3-1 and 3-2 games don’t count, since their season didn’t end if they lost.

Comment From Franklin Morales
Why won’t John Farrell let me play catch with David Ross during a game? I really miss playing with him. Plus the Cardinals have some lefty problems and Breslow hasn’t looked great.

Dave Cameron: You can’t throw strikes.

Comment From Dave
Does the World series end tonight or are we going 7?

Dave Cameron: I think Boston takes it tonight.

Comment From nj0
How close (or distant) of a relationship does Fangraphs have with Baseball Reference? Friendly, neutral, competitive? I always thought it’d be nice if both sites could hyperlink to the other on player pages (since I find myself going to both when looking at a player’s stats).

Dave Cameron: I’d say we’re cordial. David Appelman and I had lunch with Sean Forman back in March, when we got together to talk about coming up with a common replacement level. We have a lot of respect for what he’s built, and I think the same is true from his perspective as well.

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Zach McAllister for Mark Trumbo, who hangs up?

Dave Cameron: Both teams?

Comment From Erich
Gold Glove winners: Most deserving? Least deserving? Who wins the “Platinum Gloves”?

Dave Cameron: They mostly got it right this year. The Adam Jones pick is the atrocious one, of course.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Angels shopping Bourjos for pitching — could the White Sox be a good fit? Is the underrated (3.7 WAR) Jose Quintana too much to give up? is Hector Santiago (1.7 WAR) enough?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re probably going to move Trumbo and keep Bourjos.

Comment From Troy
Why does Adam Jones keep winning gold gloves? Do you even care about GGs? It does seem like they got the majority of them right this year….progress?

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t care about them. Jones keeps winning because he’s athletic and voters assume atheltic = rangey.

Comment From Steve
The puppy is in distress?! End the chat now!

Dave Cameron: Hard to call it distress. She just occasionally acts like something is caught in her throat, but she had a ton of energy yesterday, so there was no real reason to be concerned. She’s been kind of lazy this morning though, so now I’m starting to think a vet trip is in order. We’ll see.

Comment From Dennis
How many IBBs would Ortiz get tonight if you were the Cardinals manager? Any?

Dave Cameron: If there’s a runner at second and first base is open, I’d definitely consider setting up the double play. But I’m not putting him on just because I’m scared of him.

Comment From David
Are you buying the narrative that Papi’s post season exploits are going to almost single handedly put him in the HOF?

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll get far more consideration than he should.

Comment From Seymour
you think that the cold weather is affecting hitters more than pitchers and that is what’s largely attributable to the anemic offense we’ve seen in this series? It seems that despite what should be some SPs being really gassed at this time of the year, maybe the cold suppresses hitting even more.

Dave Cameron: There’s absolutely an effect on offense from cold weather. There were a few balls hit in STL that just didn’t carry at all.

Comment From Guest
JJ Hardy a possible Cardinal SS option? He was shopped last year and the Orioles could use some pitching in return.

Dave Cameron: No, they’re not going to trade their starting SS so that they can move Machado back to SS coming off knee surgery.

Comment From Seymour
what do you think tier 1a of the FA pitching market gets – Ubaldo and Nolasco (after Garza and Ervin)?

Dave Cameron: I think Nolasco gets a lot more because he’s not tied to the QO. I’ll guess 4/52 for Nolasco, and 2/25 for Jimenez.

Comment From Joe
If you’re the Yankees do you offer Granderson and Hughes qualifying offers? Gotta get those picks

Dave Cameron: Granderson yes, Hughes not a chance.

Comment From Colin
If the Cubs do indeed move Jeff Samardzija, is there any way someone like Jameson Taillon or Archie Bradley comes back in return?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think either of those guys would be on the table, no.

Comment From Joel
Are the M’s going to have to do a serious overpay to get Ellsbury? And do you think there is a good chance of that happening?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From PR
Is Ian Kinsler worth more than his contract now given rising MLB money? Any trade ideas? Porcello?

Dave Cameron: I think his contract is fair-ish, kind of like Brandon Phillips. But that means little trade value.

Comment From Jeb
Regarding your comment about Illitch, does that make the Tigers a legit Cano contender?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll just bring Infante back for 1/10 the price.

Comment From Hunter
The Astros are looking to increase their payroll to $50MM this offseason. Should they? What is the smartest way to sllocate their resources.

Dave Cameron: Do what the Cubs did last year; bet on short term guys who could be nifty trade deadline chips or have multiple years of value.

Comment From Dave
Pre-emptive apolgy for length. the clutch conversation lingers with me. what about the idea of “clutch” as a counting stat instead of an intrinsic ability? We call people clutch AFTER they doing something clutch- we cannot predict that they will be clutch. clutch would need to be defined, but it could be something like,hitter hits with opportunity to bring game to 4 run or more/less lead deficit from 6th inning on. This way you could quantify “clutch” in a real (counting or rate) way and satisfy both camps. But we should agree you can’t predict clutch

Dave Cameron: We have that on the site. Look under the Win Probability section.

Comment From PR
nine of any player. who wins. micah owings?

Dave Cameron: Probably would have to be a catcher, since that’s the thing that no one else on the field can do with any reasonable skill without serious practice. Maybe Yadier Molina or Russell Martin?

Comment From Scott
Does this series look different if Mujica/Miller are replaced with bench players/bullpen arms that could have actually participated in the games?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, maybe. Though Adron Chambers probably wouldn’t have made that huge of an impact.

Comment From MT
Do you think Farrell is really starting Gomes for “chemistry” reasons, or is there something we’re missing (Nava not 100%)?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s betting on dingers over walks.

Comment From stg03
Peter Bourjos landing spots? STL would make a lot of sense, no?

Dave Cameron: If they go that direction, yes.

Comment From Dan
You in Fenway tonight?

Dave Cameron: No, David Laurila will be. We split up our WS coverage by geographic area, so I got CIN/ATL/PIT. Stupid chokers.

Comment From Steve
Impressed that Arenado won a gold glove his rookie year? It seems the writers generally take a few years to reward defense. But I suppose the same could be said for Simmons and Machado. Are we seeing a shift in how the voters vote or are these young guys just too good to not vote for?

Dave Cameron: We’re definitely seeing a shift in voting.

Comment From person hscer
What does an athletic CF do to have poor range? Just can’t read the ball off the bat?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, poor reaction times, bad routes.

Comment From Elvis Andrus
Do the Cards make a serious run at me this offseason? Adams, Jenkins and Kelly get it done?

Dave Cameron: The STL/TEX rumored trade pairing has been so heavily discussed that it’s kind of amazing they haven’t gotten together on something yet.

Comment From JB
If Wacha comes out and pitches another gem does he enter rookie of the year conversation or has he not had enough playing time in comparison to Puig?

Dave Cameron: The postseason awards voting ends with the regular season. Those votes have already been cast.

Comment From person hscer
When Martinez has yet to be inducted 5 years after Ortiz retires, will HOF voters finally realize something?

Dave Cameron: No, because Ortiz hits dingers in a big city.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
By “far more consideration than he should” you mean, “far more consideration than Edgar”, right?

Dave Cameron: A HOF that includes David Ortiz but not Edgar Martinez is a farce.

Comment From Gila Monster
Fun fact: David Ortiz is a .297/.403/.554 hitter in 81 post season games.
Ortiz is a career .287/.381/.549 career hitter. It is magical what an almost adequate sample size will do.

Dave Cameron: Well, hitting at your career norms against better pitchers in colder weather is more impressive.

Comment From Prich
Right now, it seems like the Angels have 9 ok starters and holes in the rotation and pen… So, if they were to move Trumbo/Kendrick/Bourjos or -anyone for that matter- for pitching, wouldn’t that be just opening another hole to fill another?

Dave Cameron: Yep, this is the trap of “filling needs” rather than trying to get better.

Comment From Eminor3rd
I never realized how bad Pete Kozma was. It’s hard to believe the Cardinals wouldn’t give up some farm to upgrade.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I have to think they regret not going harder after Alexei Ramirez or Erick Aybar at the trade deadline.

Comment From Seymour
I think that if the O’s can’t extend JJ then a deal is possible. They can also go Schoop at SS and see where that goes until MM’s knee is 100%

Dave Cameron: Schoop is a 2B with a questionable bat.

Comment From Todd Boss
If the Cards lose the WS, are we going to see some Nats-shutting-down-Strasburg like outrage for their purposely sitting Shelby Miller? It seems to me the two situations are nearly alike…

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals aren’t losing this series because their starting pitching isn’t good enough.

Comment From Kimball
Did you read the CR piece on what the author called OVA? Do you think such finely grained statistics are helpful? Doesn’t it just worsen the “problem” of WAR, suggesting false precision?

Dave Cameron: I read the piece, and I find some of his ideas pretty interesting. I do wonder how much of a difference those little tweaks end up making in the final results though.

Comment From nj0
There’s no sign and trades in MLB, correct? If that is the case, when does a newly signed FA technically become tradeable?

Dave Cameron: June 1st of the following season. They do have the right to waive their two month no-trade clause if they want, but MLB would probably frown on anything before Opening Day.

Comment From Prich
Franklin and Pryor for Porcello, who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Mariners.

Comment From Andrew
What is the market for Stephen Drew, assuming no QO?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess two years with some kind of option, maybe at $10M per year or so.

Comment From Kevin
Considering that Ubaldo was better this year, better last year (terrible, but better) and carries a higher upside, why is Santana viewed in such a better light? Just because HR troubles are more likely to go away than control?

Dave Cameron: The perception is that Ubaldo’s problems are physical; bad mechanics, huge velo loss, etc… Betting big on a guy with some physical red flags can be scary.

Comment From Izzy
What are Matt Holliday’s HOF chances?

Dave Cameron: Not very good.

Comment From Seymour
what happens to Grandy’s market with draft comp attached? It feels like that may be the one deal that someone regrets big time. Grandy hasn’t been good since 2011 and now that he sees a shift on a pretty regular basis it’s prob not going to get better for him. It’s funny that the PaleHose have been linked to him given his high K rate and that they’ve had to deal with Dunn’s whiffing the past few yrs.

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll end up taking the QO, or re-signing with NYY for something close to that.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Is Trumbo to the Bucs a good idea or is it a problem to have an Alvarez clone at 1B?

Dave Cameron: They can do better.

Comment From Kevin
Scott Kazmir is the free agent pitcher who will deliver the most surplus value over the life of his contract this offseason. True or false?

Dave Cameron: False.

Comment From person hscer
I just want to make sure you’ve met Jeff Sullivan and confirmed that he is human. He writes 3 things a day (doing research for them manually, he suggested yesterday), manages the community blog (which he’s publishing something to almost every day), chats once a week (usually going overtime) and live blogs when needed. Did I miss anything?

Dave Cameron: He also writes at USSM, contributes to our weekly conference call, is active on Twitter, and goes hiking almost every weekend. But, yes, we’ve met (many times), and he’s human. And awesome.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Adron Chambers wouldn’t gave got picked off to end a game

Dave Cameron: He’s kind of a terrible baserunner, actually. So maybe he would have.

Comment From Mike
Everyone talks about Jones but wasn’t Gonzalez over Marte almost as bad?

Dave Cameron: Gonzalez is a good LF, so him winning isn’t atrocious, but sure, Marte would have been a better choice.

Comment From Guest
On what top-ish prospect does your opinion most differ with the prevailing scouting consensus? Why?

Dave Cameron: I think I’m maybe a little bit of a Byron Buxton skeptic relative to the current hype. The idea of him being better than Mike Trout is basically nuts.

Dave Cameron: That isn’t to say he isn’t a fantastic prospect, but I think the narrative got carried away this summer.

Comment From Guest 0
I realize RBI is a useless tool for player evaluation, but would something like RBI% have some value? To show over time that Player X has a greater tendency to come through with runners on than Player Y?

Dave Cameron: No reason to use RBIs as the tool to measure that. There are many better ways to do so, by looking at things like batting lines in certain situations.

Comment From DTSS
Nine of any player? How about Bryce Harper? He caught growing up and played various infield and outfield positions as well during college. He used to pitch, I believe, too. I always heard he could throw 95.

Dave Cameron: Solid choice.

Comment From Prich
Do the Cards have the ammo to acquire both Bourjos and Andrus this offseason, while still fielding a great team around them?

Dave Cameron: If they wanted to, yes.

Comment From Colin
Any possibility that Jordan Zimmerman makes it to free agency? Lot of money to be made for a young pitcher these days.

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but I think a pitcher with his health track record should probably take the security while he can.

Comment From Erich
Do the Brewers toss a cheap 1yr/incentive laden deal at someone like Berkman or Morneau this offseaon, or bet on Hart coming back? To call Milwaukee’s 1B last year a revolving door of jabronies is being nice.

Dave Cameron: Sounds like Hart wants to come back.

Comment From Guest
Do you think Jesus Montero ever figures it out? What kind of value does he have?

Dave Cameron: I think his upside is an average DH.

Comment From Ryan
so with the Cardinals’ wealth of options in the rotation next year it seems like most people assume Lynn will be traded. Do you agree, or do they shop one of their young guys around?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine they’ll keep Wainwright/Wacha/Kelly/Miller, and then take offers on everyone else.

Comment From Matt
how is the runs per win calculated? (around 10 i think)

Dave Cameron: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Winning_Percentage_Estimators

Comment From Matt
do turf infields produce more singles on groundballs?

Dave Cameron: I believe so, but I don’t know that I’ve ever seen it proven.

Comment From Jason
Why would Theo want Eric Wedge to steer his ship? Does that trouble anyone else? I understand the Mariners org was in disarray, but his management style wasn’t exactly progressive.

Dave Cameron: Interviewing someone doesn’t mean you hired them.

Comment From TheXman
I am a graduate student in math about to graduate and in my job applications in one of my job applications I’m asked to provide a syllabus for a course that I would teach. I was thinking of designing a course of analytics in sports. Do you have any suggestions for books to look at as possible textbooks for such a course?

Dave Cameron: I actually spoke at Elon University last week in a very similar kind of class. If you google for Elon baseball and statistics, the course syllabus should come up.

Dave Cameron: Beyond what he’s using, I would suggest The Book by Tango/LIchtman/Dolphin.

Dave Cameron: or Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver.

Comment From Guest
IS Roberto Hernandez the true test of how much teams value xFIP over ERA?

Dave Cameron: No one player is ever the true test of anything. N of 1 is almost always useless.

Comment From That One Guy
Any feeling on what the Tigers do for LF next year? Could they make a trade for somebody superior to internal options?

Dave Cameron: Everything depends on if they stick with Cabrera at 3B or finally end the madness and move him to 1B/DH. That determines what they do with Castellanos.

Comment From semperty
If all parties agree to the move, and it can be waived, why can’t it happen?

Dave Cameron: MLB has veto rights over trades that it believes are designed to get around the QO.

Comment From Jon
What do the Jays do with Josh Johnson?

Dave Cameron: Make him the qualifying offer.

Comment From person hscer
You used to compare Montero’s ceiling to Carlos Lee. If you got to do it all over again, how much lower would you have gone for a comp? Arencibia?

Dave Cameron: It’s still not impossible that he turns into Carlos Lee, but now I’d probably go with something like Kendrys Morales.

Comment From Mr. Jones
Why do managers seem to treat the postseason more or less like the regular season when it comes to conserving their pitching staff? Shouldn’t every game be managed hyper-aggressively to maximize win probability? It seems like a twelve-man pitching staff should be able to handle a month or so of abnormal usage patterns.

Dave Cameron: We saw LaRussa and Ron Washington do exactly that two years ago. I’m not sure why Matheny and Farrell have gone the other way this time around, but I think this trend will eventually end.

Comment From Eminor3rd
WORST choice for nine of any player? Ryan Howard?

Dave Cameron: Jim Abbott?

Dave Cameron: Too soon?

Comment From John
What type of prospect would the Angels want from the Cards for Bourjos?

Dave Cameron: Pitching.

Comment From Pablo Sandoval
Is someone going to give me $100M+ next offseason?

Dave Cameron: No way.

Comment From chuckb
If you have a .400 wOBA hitter facing a .300 wOBA pitcher with an average defense behind him, would the expected wOBA from any given plate appearance be .350 or would it favor the hitter or pitcher slightly?

Dave Cameron: Well, there’s platoon splits and park factors and such to include, but it’d be close to .350.

Comment From Eminor3rd
What will the Royals do this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Isn’t it really easy to see them overpaying for Brandon Phillips?

Comment From RSquared
With a plethora of near MLB ready talent in the upper minors, it seems the Red Sox are about to become the Cardinals of the next five years.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t go that far. Bogaerts looks amazing and I like Workman, but the rest of their young pitching seems overrated.

Comment From Joe
Do the Reds make a qualifying offer to Bronson Arroyo? Does Billy Hamilton start the year in Triple A?

Dave Cameron: No squared.

Comment From JCC
If the Tigers move Cabrera to 1b/DH, they’re going to be paying someone a LOT of money to sit on the bench. I don’t think that’s going to happen in 2014

Dave Cameron: Or they pick up some of Victor Martinez’s salary and trade him to a team looking for a one year DH.

Comment From fathersasquatch
Dave, last week you mentioned Phillips to the Royals. Would Duffy, Herrera, and Giavotella be a start on the return? Would KC take Broxton back?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine Cincy would want bullpen pieces, because they’re probably going to try Chapman as a starter again. Maybe Hochevar and Herrera gets them interested.

Comment From Guest
If they go Wainwright/Wacha/Kelly/Miller would you use Martinez or Rosenthal as the 5th starter?

Dave Cameron: I think Rosenthal has a better chance to start long term, but I bet both stay in relief next year.

Comment From Guest
I don’t understand why people suggest moving Ian Kinsler to 1B. I mean I get they have a middle infield logjam and a bit of an opening at first, but can we stop pretending he’d be good there?

Dave Cameron: Defensively, he’d be above average in all likelihood.

Comment From DTSS
I wonder what percentage of FG readers drive pickup trucks? The ad doesn’t seem like a natural fit demographics-wise.

Dave Cameron: I had the same thought. I also noticed that Ford is marketing their trucks as “tough” while Chevy is marketing theirs as “strong”. Any other words for this left? Who is in with “rugged”?

Comment From Sanders
Do you see the Reds trying to move Homer Bailey this winter?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Erich
Puppy seems to be holding out well, huh?

Dave Cameron: She’s perked up a little bit. Might still go to the vet this afternoon, but I don’t think it’s an emergency.

Comment From Matt
In term of things like hot/cold streaks, when we say “they don’t exist”, do we actually mean it? Or do we just mean that for all we know they streak could end at any moment, so we can’t use a streak for predictive value? It seems confidence plays a huge role in streaks because a player is more confident due to recent success, they do better. The inverse being true.

Dave Cameron: You’re assuming confidence is a cause and not an effect.

Dave Cameron: Here’s basically what we know: if there are things that allow a player to raise his performance level for a short period of time, they cannot be identified by using past performance, so anyone telling you that “so and so is hot because he’s 6 for his last 10” is full of it.

Comment From Ethan
What makes a borderline pitcher more suited to being a starter or a reliever?

Dave Cameron: Relievers don’t have to get out opposite handed hitters.

Comment From Arquimedes Bozo
Pickup truck driver here

Dave Cameron: Hope you enjoyed the ad!

Comment From That One Guy
Ram (f/k/a Dodge) “hardest working” trucks

Comment From Tom
Why can’t these playoff games start at a reasonable hour? They are killing future generations of baseball fans!

Dave Cameron: The west coast has people too.

Comment From Andrew
Rugged Toyota Tundra.

Dave Cameron: Get some creativity, truck marketing people.

Comment From Arquimedes Bozo
West coast truck driver here. I need beer and volcanoes

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Hey, I drive a pickup truck!

Comment From Sean
7 Eastern time still makes more sense than 8 if you ask me.

Dave Cameron: That’s 4 pm pacific time, so you’re screwing everyone who lives on that coast and has a job.

Comment From Razor
I’m in the market for a pickup truck, but I’d like one that’s dainty and polite. Any suggestions?

Comment From Richie
Miggy’s been very clear that he ain’t gonna DH. Maybe/hopefully the last injury has changed his perspective on that. But if not, no you can’t force him to shift.

Dave Cameron: Of course you can. Michael Young moved off shortstop for Elvis Andrus. Players will eventually realize they’re the employee.

Dave Cameron: Okay, back to puppy check-up time. We’ll see you guys tonight at 8:00 for maybe the last game of the season.