FanGraphs Chat – 11/6/13

Dave Cameron: Welcome to Hot Stove, Cool Chats. Or Something like that. Don’t sue me Peter Gammons.

Dave Cameron: Off-season is in full swing, so we’ll talk free agency, trade speculation, contract extensions, managerial hires, or just about anything else.

Dave Cameron: Queue is now open, so get your questions in now.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Red Sox handling of Torey Lovullo is a disgrace.

Dave Cameron: Agree. Holding a coach hostage because they’re holding a grudge from Theo leaving should be beneath an organization like that.

Comment From skipperxc
What could the Brewers do to compete next year? Anything realistic?

Dave Cameron: Relegate themselves to Triple-A.

Comment From Prich
Kyle Seager: 4/24 with an option… too much, too little?

Dave Cameron: No reason for Seager to do that.

Comment From Ben
There’s been a lot of talk about the Mets finally spending money and making some moves this winter. Do you think it happens? If so, any educated guesses on their final haul?

Dave Cameron: It sounds like they’re going to try to add a few pieces that would make them at least respectable. I could see them going after guys like Bronson Arroyo and David Murphy.

Comment From JEB
Biggest hole Cleveland needs to fill this offseason still starting pitching?

Dave Cameron: Depends on Ubaldo/Kazmir. But yeah, if they both leave, pitching becomes a big problem.

Comment From Casey
How does the Tigers buying out Veras’ option make any sense? It seems to me that he would have been an affordable effective reliever.

Dave Cameron: They’re penny pinching because they’ve got too many high priced players. This is the downside of stars-and-scrubs.

Comment From Eastern NC
Is it time for the Cubs to make a splash similar to the Nats getting Werth? You know, get a guy that seems to make no sense but will in 2 years?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll be in on Ellsbury to an extent, but if the bidding gets insane, they’ll hold the line.

Comment From Max
Are there any free agent starting pitchers you would give 3+ years to for big money? Seems like the risk outweighs the reward

Dave Cameron: Tanaka seems very good, though not technically a free agent.

Comment From Bret
Might a deal based around Chris Iannetta for JA Happ work for both teams? Both players have their warts, but anyone is an upgrade over Arencibia for Toronto, and if the Angels want Vargas back, Happ seems to have similar value and will come cheaper in dollars.

Dave Cameron: Blue Jays should be able to do better than Iannetta.

Comment From Guest
Why did it become conventional wisdom that the team with the highest WAR winning the world series disproves all of sabermetrics?

Dave Cameron: Because 60 year old white men are attempting to defend their turf.

Comment From Eastern NC
Do you envision the Dodgers getting Price AND Tanaka?

Dave Cameron: I think Tanaka ends up in NYY.

Comment From JIMBO
How much does not getting a QO boost Saltalamacchia’s market? What are the chances he returns to Boston?

Dave Cameron: Definitely helps Salty, and he should get a 2 or 3 year deal out of it. I don’t think he’s going back to Boston.

Comment From Steve
Do you think Kazmir could be a good fit got the Pirates if Burnett calls it quits? Do teams shy away from having so many lefties in thier rotation?

Dave Cameron: Probably out of their price range.

Comment From JIMBO
If Stephen Drew accepts the QO, does Bogaerts move to third and Middlebrooks get shipped out of town? Or some other sort of movement?

Dave Cameron: I think they probably just those three to cover the two spots. Depth is important.

Comment From Guest
We all know that Cano is the big FA fish this year, but it seems like he’s not the proverbial “first domino to fall”, for whom all other FAs are waiting. If not Cano, who is the guy that needs to sign before the log jam loosens this year?

Dave Cameron: Masahiro Tanaka. His posting/signing process is going to hold things up for all the pitchers.

Comment From concerned citizen
In your opinion what can STL do to improve the SS position?

Dave Cameron: Alexei Ramirez makes a lot of sense.

Comment From Grady
What can we expect from McClendon as Ms Manager? Is he known for developing young prospects or a hitting guru or anything positive?

Dave Cameron: Nope, basically just known as a guy who will spew cliches and manage the same way everyone else has managed for 50 years.

Comment From Ray
Will the Rays get a Wil-Myers-like offer for David Price this offseason, and which team is best suited to do so?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there are any top 3 prospects moving this winter, so no. I could see LA putting up a package of good prospects that might be on par with what KC paid for Shields though.

Comment From JIMBO
Thoughts on Chris Young potentially going to the Red Sox? If Ellsbury leaves, he might be a nice complement to/insurance for Jackie Bradley Jr.

Dave Cameron: Right-handed pull power in Fenway does seem like a good idea.

Comment From JIMBO
Who makes the most absurd offer for one year of David Price?

Dave Cameron: It’s two years.

Comment From A. Lane
With all the commentary on QO and who it benefits, I keep asking why does the free agent compensation system exist in the first place? I understand the issues with the old system of type A & B but when did the compensation system start and what was its genesis?

Dave Cameron: It exists to drive down salaries for free agents.

Comment From Jay
Who wins more games in 2014, Pirates or Nationals?

Dave Cameron: Impossible to know without knowing who will be playing for each team, but based on current rosters, I’d guess Washington.

Comment From Man With A Plan
Given the White Sox need for offense, and the Blue Jays need for SP, does a Jose Quintana for Brett Lawrie trade make sense?

Dave Cameron: Quintana isn’t worth Lawrie.

Comment From JIMBO
Does Napoli’s market look much different now than it did last winter after he was diagnosed with avascular necrosis? Why would it, since as far as I can tell his hip could still fall apart at any time?

Dave Cameron: Well, everyone knows he’s not a catcher anymore, so now he’s marketing himself strictly as a 1B. But I think he gets something like the 3/39 he was in line to get before the AVN was discovered.

Comment From Seymour
most likely destination for David Price?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers.

Comment From Pendragon
Could Kolten Wong be Brian Roberts II?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the under.

Comment From concerned citizen 2
I’d also appreciate thoughts on STL’s return on a Lance Lynn trade.

Dave Cameron: Okay, not great. Problems versus lefties will hold down his value.

Comment From Seymour
do you expect a Battle Royale between the Rangers and Yankees over Brian McCann?

Dave Cameron: I think he signs with Boston.

Comment From Jay
If Miami and Houston were both to go insane and trade off their entire farm systems while raising payroll to ~$100M, which one would be more likely to field a playoff team in 2014?

Dave Cameron: Miami. They have Stanton/Fernandez.

Comment From Dave
Jays need help at 2B, is it worth perhaps exploring trading Bautista and see if St.Louis will part with 1 of Carpenter/Wong & 1 of Miller/Wacha is a realistic idea?

Dave Cameron: You’re not getting Carpenter or Wacha, who are basically untouchable, and the Cardinals don’t need Jose Bautista.

Comment From Guest
Tigers sign McCann and look to move V-Mart as a salary dump?

Dave Cameron: They have Alex Avila already, so no.

Comment From Guest
Who do you see as the Mariners 2014 opening day 2nd baseman, Ackley or Franklin? Do they intend on using Ackley in the outfield permanently?

Dave Cameron: I think they trade Ackley and go with Franklin full time.

Comment From Jays fan
Josh Johnson’s medicals must not be good, otherwise one would think he is worth the one year gamble?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Blue Jays know his health better than we do, but still seems like a QO there might have been worth it.

Comment From Henry
Have you talked to any scouts/front office people who think that Tanaka is a massive risk (insanely overused)? He’s almost Matsuzaka bad in terms of overuse in Japan.

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that the schedule is different over there. They’re generally not pitching every five days, so it’s not apples to apples to US pitch counts.

Comment From Evan
Adams/Martinez for Andrus?

Dave Cameron: Cardinals would laugh at that.

Comment From JIMBO
Are teams investing more in player development, rather than amateur player acquisition, now that spending in the draft and internationally is more limited?

Dave Cameron: The question is how you invest in player development. It’s not entirely clear that there’s an obvious place to spend money that will help you develop better players.

Comment From Jay
What’s your opinion on the Andrus extension? If he hadn’t been extended they could easily trade him now to patch some of their holes and poor Jurickson Profar wouldn’t be in limbo

Dave Cameron: Good idea at the time, followed by Andrus having a bad season. It happens.

Comment From Alex
Is there any conceivable trade for Prince Fielder out there that you can think of?

Dave Cameron: With Mariners hiring Lloyd McClendon, I fully expect the Tigers to at least gauge the Mariners interest in taking Fielder off their hands.

Comment From Dave
Do you think it’s a better idea to wait on Polanco or should the Pirates dangle him + Glasnow + Bell for Stanton?

Dave Cameron: Stanton is unavailable.

Comment From Max
Do you think the Tigers move on of their high priced guys since they are pinching pennies? Who should go?

Dave Cameron: They have to move either Fielder or Martinez, and Fielder is probably untradeable unless they eat a lot of the remaining deal.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Only relevant question: How is the puppy doing

Dave Cameron: She’s back to normal. Never did figure out what was wrong, but ran up a big vet bill in the process. But she’s good as new again.

Comment From Justin
The Dodgers declined their $5.75mm option on Mark Ellis. What do you think their plan is for 2B? And what kind of deal do you think Ellis eventually gets?

Dave Cameron: I could see them going after a Dustin Ackley 2B/OF type who could give them depth at second base but also play the outfield if Guerrero works out.

Comment From Steve
Do you think anything has changed recently in the way young pitchers are being developed in the minor leagues that has allowed so many to have success right away? It seemed like for years nearly all of them struggled at first, and last year we had a big handful that really dominated.

Dave Cameron: Run scoring in baseball is way down, making all pitchers look better, including young ones.

Comment From Jay
Are there any teams that were below .500 last year that you could see making a surprise playoff run in 2014?

Dave Cameron: Blue Jays, Angels, and Giants would be the three most likely.

Comment From Dewey
I noticed in your USSMariner annual what to do article you listed only one trade. Is that influenced by some observation of how hard it is to make a trade these days?

Dave Cameron: I could see them going after a Dustin Ackley 2B/OF type who could give them depth at second base but also play the outfield if Guerrero works out.

Dave Cameron: Well, that was a very late time to put that answer in, Cover It Live.

Dave Cameron: The single trade was mostly influenced by the fact that the Mariners don’t have a lot of stuff that other teams would want.

Comment From Mike
Considering the stars and scrubs issues you mentioned, doesn’t it make some sense to deal Fister (similar to what they did with Granderson back in 09) if you’re Detroit? Seems like they could get a good return while saving $7ish million.

Dave Cameron: He’s one of the few guys on the team making less than what he’s worth.

Comment From Dan
If the Yankees don’t re-up Cano, who else even has the money and fit to afford him?

Dave Cameron: That’s basically going to be the Yankees stance, I think.

Comment From Cory
You think we’ll see anyone sign before the winter meetings or no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, a few guys always sign early. I could see Brian McCann signing very quickly.

Dave Cameron: Carlos Beltran too.

Comment From Tim
Do you buy all the Scherzer trade rumors? They just don’t make sense to me personally.

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t.

Comment From Seymour
as an M’s fan, what is your reaction to McLendon?

Dave Cameron: Resigned cynicism.

Comment From Mike
Should the Tigers be considering dealing guys like Fister, Porcello, Jackson and others they almost certainly can’t afford when they hit the open market? Or just let it ride for this season and see where it stands a year from now?

Dave Cameron: They probably have to move one starter and one of their DHs. They should keep Jackson and Fister.

Comment From Seymour
Is re-signing Nolasco a priority for the Dodgers?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t seem like it.

Comment From Jay
What does a realistic trade look like for Alexei Ramirez? I assume the Cardinals could get it done without including one of Miller/Wacha/Martinez/Rosie

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s not going to command that kind of return.

Comment From Sean
How do you automatically know that declining a 4m option for Veras is penny pinching? You think it’s penny pinching instead of the fact that the guy was terrible after they acquired him and the fact that he’s had one season in his career with a BB/9 under 5?

Dave Cameron: If you think Veras was “terrible” for the Tigers, you don’t actually know what a terrible reliever looks like.

Comment From Ray
follow up question on Price, how many of Seager, Pederson, Lee and Urias would be needed to trade for Price? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Probably the first three.

Comment From Justin
Is there any way the Dodgers could get Price without giving up Seager?

Dave Cameron: Doubt it.

Comment From Eastern NC
Where do you stand on the Cardinals needing a trade for Andrus/Profar?

Dave Cameron: They don’t need to trade for any one player. Lots of fish in the sea.

Comment From Gila Monster
Why didn’t Boston give Salty a QO? Because they want to sign him to a multi year deal, but don’t want to lose a pick?

Dave Cameron: Because he’s not that good and they prefer McCann.

Comment From Mike T.
Is this time of year fun for you because of all the ridiculous potential trade offers people come up with? I just saw somewhere that the Cardinals should be able to get Tulo for Lynn and a prospect and they should hold shelby Miller in that scenario. Yep, I’m sure the Rockies would be cool with that.

Dave Cameron: I liked the guy on Twitter last night who wanted STL to give up Wacha, Martinez, and Adams for Price.

Comment From Dan
If you’re running the Cards, do you give Rosenthal a shot to start?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From Guest
Do you think the current system with slave wages for young players and a basically unrestricted market for veterans is actually good for the health of MLB as a whole?

Dave Cameron: It’s the system you get with a union. Experience gets paid.

Comment From Jeff
Extending DeJesus seems like it will likely end Matt Joyce’s tenure in TB. He obviously has his limitations, but a guy who posts a career wOBA of 130 against RH pitching and is a passable corner outfielder seems like he has some value. Perhaps a fit for the Indians to platoon with Raburn at DH/RF?

Dave Cameron: No reason Rays can’t keep him for same role.

Comment From Tommy
Do you think we will ever see a movement towards front loaded contracts? Not only is it practical performance wise, it makes the players more tradable on the back end, has the same effect on the luxury tax, and the time value of money proves it as beneficial to the player as well. Or do you think we will continue to see a “deal with that issue later/let the next gm deal with it” attitude from teams?

Dave Cameron: Front loaded contracts make no sense. If you backload a deal and just want to move him later, you pay part of the remainder of the contract, and it works out just the same, only you got an interest free loan for several years.

Comment From pogotheostrich
If you were running the Cardinals what would you give up for Alexei Ramirez? The rumor earlier this year was the ChiSox asked for Carlos Martinez and the Cards said no.

Dave Cameron: Wong for Ramirez makes some sense for both teams.

Comment From Sean
Trading Martinez, who had a 920 OPS in the second half, was the best hitter in the playoffs, and has only one year remaining would be stupid and only creates another hole.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, you should totally judge players by their second half OPS.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Eithier getting moved this offseason?

Dave Cameron: I think so, yes. Probably to Seattle if they miss out on Ellsbury.

Comment From Seymour
you just described KellyJohnson for the Dodgers

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’d be a good option.

Comment From Joe
Do you think that Stanton being “unavailable” is 100% true or just the Miami FO trying to drive up offers they get for him?

Dave Cameron: True. His price is already sky high.

Comment From Prich
How much money would the Tigers have to eat on Fielder’s contract for you to be ok with the Ms taking him on? (non-sarcastic answer appreciated)

Dave Cameron: He’s got like 1/170 left, I believe. I’d probably take half of that.

Comment From Tommy
I know you have said before that you don’t think the Reds will trade Bailey, but do you think they would be wise to this offseason? They won’t be able to extend all 4 of their SP whose team control ends in the next 2 years and the return could fill the organizational depth they currently lack.

Dave Cameron: I’d keep Bailey, trade Cueto.

Comment From John
Over/Under…. 140 million for Ellsbury?

Dave Cameron: I think thats just about right.

Comment From person hscer
does cover it live basically have a monopoly?

Dave Cameron: We tried one of their competitors, didn’t really like it.

Comment From Devin
think the Giants roll the dice on Beltran again? Or is he destined for the AL?

Dave Cameron: I think he lands in Texas or NYY.

Comment From Bret
Would you feel comfortable betting on Ubaldo for a 4-or-so year deal at $13-$16M per year?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Seymour
Nats may be the one viable alternative to the Bankees on Cano.

Dave Cameron: Don’t think so.

Comment From JIMBO
Is there any chance the A’s actually end up playing in AT&T next year? Or is it just a negotiating tactic?

Dave Cameron: The latter.

Comment From Kyle
I have a hard time comprehending a Yankees off season without a splash of four…is Tanaka their only BIG move? (other than the 8/200 they give Cano)

Dave Cameron: Cano/Tanaka/Beltran seems like a “big splash” off-season to me.

Comment From Gila Monster
Am the the only one that would just resign Napoli, sign a veteran catcher on the cheap to a 1 year deal(like Ruiz), and try to land Chris Young and Corey Hart with the extra cash make sense for Boston?

Dave Cameron: What are you going to do with Napoli/Hart/Ortiz? Three guys for two spots.

Comment From Alex
Could the Tigers trade Miguel Cabrera? What kind of haul could he fetch?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but they won’t consider it.

Comment From pogotheostrich
What is the deadline for players to accept qualifying offers?

Dave Cameron: Next week.

Comment From Seymour
Are the Halos a legit possibility for Price?

Dave Cameron: They don’t have any prospects, so no.

Comment From nick
Does Brandon Phillips bring anything useful back to the Reds in a trade? Two good prospects?

Dave Cameron: I’d say a couple good relievers.

Comment From benzedrine
Dave Cameron blink watch ETA?

Dave Cameron: Friday afternoon.

Comment From zeus
Can you picture a scenario where the Mariners acquire Austin Jackson?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. I’d guess that McClendon would probably be happy to push for the team to trade with Detroit.

Comment From WWMRD
Shouldn’t the Dodgers be focusing on other areas rather than Price? SP really wasn’t much of a problem for them this year.

Dave Cameron: The goal is to get better, not just improve on your weaknesses.

Comment From Spencer
Is Rendon too much or too little for Scherzer?

Dave Cameron: Too much.

Comment From Oren
Hey Dave – you mentioned to a previous commenter that the Jays could do better than Iannetta. Who do you see available on the trade market, as the free agent crop is fairly shallow?

Dave Cameron: A’s have Jaso and Vogt, who are somewhat redundant.

Comment From zack
Any chance the Rays keep price for one more year and try to make one more run with him?

Dave Cameron: None.

Comment From Seymour
what do you mean? keep Joyce to platoon with Jennings? huh?

Dave Cameron: Joyce can DH for the Rays just like he could DH for any other team.

Comment From Bud
Do the positional adjustments get updated every year? I’m thinking changing trends in offensive performance (and ball club philosophies) regarding positions like DH and corner outfield. If they’re updated, how can I find the numbers for any given year?

Dave Cameron: Positional adjustments aren’t based on offensive production. If catchers outhit first baseman one year, that doesn’t make the first baseman more valuable defenders than catchers.

Comment From zeus
Gun to your head, do you think the Mariners and Tigers make a trade this offseason? Tigers could use a 2B and Pryor, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s some potential fits there.

Comment From Devin
you don’t think Stanton’s last year hurts his value even a little?

Dave Cameron: Not much, no.

Comment From Guest
If Rosenthal gets a chance to start for the Cardinals and makes the rotation, who gets left out? Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Lynn, Kelly, Martinez, and Garcia all would be in the rotations of most MLB teams, and the Cardinals have even more starters that are more than acceptable #5s.

Dave Cameron: Trade Lynn, keep Martinez in pen, Garcia will be on DL anyway.

Comment From Man With A Plan
Isn’t Choo a perfect fit in Texas? Why aren’t they being linked to him?

Dave Cameron: Not their kind of player.

Comment From zack
Were you surprised that Burnett didn’t get the QO? Was it because they skipped him in game 5?

Dave Cameron: A bit, yeah. They say it was because they can’t afford $14M, but i wonder how much of it is they know they have leverage since he doesn’t want to go anywhere else.

Comment From primantis
If MLB teams were only willing to pay $1 million annually for the best players, Robinson Cano would be happy to have a job which pays that much. Why hasn’t this dynamic kept salaries lower?

Dave Cameron: Because that’s not how markets work.

Comment From Dave
Would the pirates have any interest in fielder at 1st?

Dave Cameron: Doubt it.

Comment From Tommy
In re: Trade Cueto, keep Bailey- Cueto has 2 seasons of team control left to Bailey’s 1; do you think that extra season outweighs Cueto’s health concerns in regards to bringing back an equal return to Bailey via trade?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think teams would bet on Cueto for two years more than Bailey for one.

Comment From Travis
How would you start to investigate the effects of pitch sequencing? I believe you’ve said a few times that you think it’s a big component as-yet-uncovered in baseball research…

Dave Cameron: It is a big deal, but it’s very hard to study.

Comment From Santiago
Is Kole Calhoun a legitimate big league outfielder or more of a 4th outfield type?

Dave Cameron: Solid starter.

Comment From Roy
What kind of pitcher is Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: A good one.

Comment From Bret
Jays need pitching, and the Tigers need relievers. I read a little bit ago that the Tigers targeted Steve Delabar at the trade deadline. Is a Delabar for Porcello flip reasonable?

Dave Cameron: No, Porcello is worth far more.

Comment From Tommy
Where do you predict Choo lands?

Dave Cameron: Houston.

Comment From Dave
Why can’t the pirates get up into the $100m payroll range? They have solid attendance, didn’t spend at all from 2008-2012, and just got that $25m from the MLB deal.

Dave Cameron: Teams don’t distribute all their revenues to the players. That they got $25M from MLB doesn’t mean they can increase their payroll by $25M.

Comment From WWMRD
Re: Price and Dodgers. The idea is to get better, but if you’re gonna trade most of your top prospects wouldn’t it be better to aim for an area of weakness? If you can get a 4 WAR player for a top prospect, it’s better to plug him it at a position where you had, say, 2 WAR last year rather than 3.5, no?

Dave Cameron: Of course, but it’s not like there are David Prices at every position available this winter.

Comment From Cory
Seems to me Porcello is far underrated. Age 24 season: 7.22 K/9 2.14 BB/9 55.3% gb rate 3.19 xFIP

Dave Cameron: Certainly potential there, but as a super two guy, he’s already getting expensive-ish, so he’s not that cheap anymore.

Comment From Meano Eno
Why Houston?

Dave Cameron: Lots of money to spend, he fits their desired skillset, and most of the other big money teams will be distracted by other things.

Comment From Spencer
Can a Braves fan dream of landing Samardzija? Would Chicago be more interested in quality or quantity?

Dave Cameron: Not sure ATL has what Chicago wants.

Comment From Dave
Re pirates payroll. Similarly sized markets like the Indians and Reds can get there, why not the pirates?

Dave Cameron: Indians and Reds are not running a $100 million payroll.

Comment From Guest
I assume every year front offices try to figure out what is more undervalued – picks, FAs, minor leaguers, draft budget, etc. Any consensus starting to emerge as to what is most undervalued this year?

Dave Cameron: Too early to know.

Comment From Dan
What about the landing spot for Napoli?

Dave Cameron: Stays in Boston.

Comment From Meano Eno
Is Mark Trumbo someone actually worth trading for?

Dave Cameron: Sure, he’s a solid average player.

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Allen Craig, RF?

Dave Cameron: Don’t know that I’d go there, given his foot problem.

Comment From Guest
What would you give from the Cardinals to get Profar?

Dave Cameron: Taveras.

Comment From Jeff
My question regarding Joyce is that he and DeJesus seem redundant on the same team. I suppose you could carry two RH only platoons and two LH platoons, but at some point you have filled up your roster.

Dave Cameron: Plenty of teams run multiple platoons.

Comment From Dan
who sacrifices a pick for santana?

Dave Cameron: The Twins.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.