FanGraphs Chat – 4/2/14

Dave Cameron: We’ve got real, actual baseball. Let’s talk about it.

Dave Cameron: Queue is open, chat will begin in 15-20 minutes.

Comment From Ryan
Still too early to be legitimately optimistic about the M’s playoff odds?

Dave Cameron: It’s two games. They count, and the gap between the Angels and Mariners is now smaller than it was a few days ago, but I have the gap much larger than the FG Playoff Odds do, and I still don’t see the Mariners as more than a .500ish team.

Comment From Depressed Braves Fan
Is BJ Upton fixable? Obviously a SSS but he has not had a good past few games.

Dave Cameron: Remember last April? The one where Justin Upton was Babe Ruth? Don’t overreact to small samples.

Comment From Tucker G
Do you think intelligent usage of shifts by managers could add to greater variability in expected team W-L records? In other words, could a smart manager of a bad team cause his team to outperform their peripherals, since shifting is not well-accounted for?

Dave Cameron: Shifting is not important enough to make a bad team into a good team. I think, at most, you can probably add a couple of wins to the ledger. Sure, that’s super valuable, but the Astros aren’t going to be playoff contenders if they shift a lot.

Comment From Buttsy Colons
Chris Archer deal is poised to be an absolute steal for the Rays, right?

Dave Cameron: Ehh, not really. It’s a deal worth doing, but the long term expected value of hitters is way above that of pitchers. Archer could easily break down in next 24 months and this deal would be a waste.

Comment From Moop
Ok Dave, you can’t tell me Moustakas is going to not perform expectations, his expectations are super low! You don’t think his off-season work will help? (and don’t say ‘it wont’ or ‘he’s bad’ or one of those DC answers)

Dave Cameron: It won’t, he’s bad.

Dave Cameron: (More seriously, off-season work absolutely can help. Unfortunately, we weren’t there to witness what we did and all we can go off are notoriously unreliable third hand reports. That’s not really evidence as much as it is conjecture.)

Comment From Brian
Who blinks first…Stephen Drew/Scott Boras or a team that needs a shortstop (Blue Jays?)

Dave Cameron: Every day you get closer to the draft, the desire to sign him before then lessens. At this point, he might as well wait another two months.

Comment From Kazmanian Devil
Who do you have in today’s Kazmir v. Kluber match up?

Dave Cameron: Let me check our new Game Odds on the scoreboard page.

Dave Cameron: Before line-ups are announcd, we have it as 57/43 in favor of the A’s. Sounds about right. http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

Comment From A Cardinals Fan
Expectations for Wacha this season? Rationally I know that we can’t expect the guy we saw at the end of last season and in the playoffs, but man it’s hard not to get excited.

Dave Cameron: I think he’s James Shields.

Comment From Cody
If hitters were given an automatic take sign in 0-2 counts, would this be a good or bad idea?

Dave Cameron: A terrible idea. The value of going from 0-2 to 1-2 is not that large, but the negative value of taking a called strike is huge.

Comment From cbird
how many games into a season does it stop becoming a slow start and start becoming a slow stop

Dave Cameron: 82.

Comment From JD
I love baseball but can we please find a way to make it more fan friendly by speeding up the game? I know some of the lure about baseball is that it has no time constraints, you lose when you run out of outs but isn’t there some things we can do so that the between pitch action is made shorter?

Dave Cameron: There are approximately 45 minutes between plays in the NFL, and it’s the most popular sport in the country.

Dave Cameron: I think people just like complaining about baseball.

Comment From Josh
I assume Max Scherzer and Scott Boras know at least as much about BABIP (Max’s was about 50 points lower than his and the league average last year) and regression (inevitable) as the average stat-head. Why didn’t he take the money?

Dave Cameron: Because they know that 6/$144M is low given the current market.

Comment From Don Baylors Femur
Weirdest injury you’ve ever seen in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Has to be the Kendrys Morales broken leg, right?

Comment From Bert
Do you think that Stubbs’/Blackmon’s defense is more beneficial to the Rockies than having a bat like Dickerson’s in the lineup? Is Dickerson’s defense that far behind those two? Why waste his bat on the bench when he could get everyday at-bats in the minors? A lot of questions I know, but the Rockies are questionable. Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Dickerson/Stubbs platoon makes more sense than Blackmon/Stubbs.

Comment From Alex
So, about instant replay being about “getting the calls right” – did you catch the debacle in the Giants game? Failed challenge, next play scores a run that would be overturned by replay. (and almost took Matt Cain’s hand off) I think Jeff predicted stuff like this from day one: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… How long before MLB fixes this situation?

Dave Cameron: At the rate that they move, probably a few yeras.

Comment From Sadwick
Thoughts on Sabathia’s start? I didn’t get to watch it so maybe he looked better than his line, but that was one ugly line.

Dave Cameron: Velo continues to be a significant problem, and he’s going to have to learn to be a guy who hits the corners if he wants to remain a top shelf starter. Too many bad locations yesterday.

Comment From E. Honda
Which Street Fighter do you think would make the best baseball player?

Dave Cameron: The girl with the spinning leg kick. She could use that as a bat and never miss.

Comment From Scott
Which middle infield do you want for 2014: Seattle, Boston, Washington, other?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners, though Pedroia/Bogaerts isn’t far behind Cano/Miller. Love both pairs.

Comment From Brad
Thoughts on Verducci’s article yesterday in SI about people living in vacuum by criticizing the Puljos/Cano/Miggy contracts.

Dave Cameron: Didn’t read, don’t plan to.

Comment From Cory
Is Evan Reed someone to keep an eye on? Minor league #s aren’t great but his velocity seems to be way up this year.

Dave Cameron: Lots of guys throw hard and still suck. I’d wait to see if he has any secondary pitches before I get too excited.

Comment From Jord Windy
Do MLB teams really work with a annual payroll, or do they have 3, 5, 7, 10 year “pools” of money they can spend? Would that help in case of a Cabrera signing, if they’re paying him 50 million per for 5 years, and the rest is gravy. Am I far off of how they are thinking?

Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays did a three year rolling payroll a few years back, but almost every team works on a single year number.

Comment From kevinthecomic
So, CC Sabathia….on the one hand, he was leaving the ball up in the early innings and getting crushed which he then adjusted and didn’t get crushed in the later innings…..on the other hand, low velocity and Astros hitters

Dave Cameron: Randy Johnson went from throwing 100 to throwing 88 and was still very good. The lack of velocity in and of itself isn’t a death knell. He’s just going to have to be a different type of pitcher.

Comment From Brandon Belt
Isn’t Bochy nuts to move me down against lefties? I don’t have a split problem; I mash everyone!

Dave Cameron: It’s maybe a little premature to say that you mash, no?

Comment From Fun Facts
The highest leverage situation possible (bases loaded, two out, down by 1, bottom of 9th inning) occurred yesterday in the game between Dodgers-Padres (Jansen-Hundley, LI=10.73). There are entire seasons where that doesn’t happen and it usually only happens a couple of times per season out of 100,000+ plays.

Dave Cameron: That is a fun fact. You live up to your name.

Comment From Scott
When looking at Cano’s contract, would playoffs in 2014 and 2015 make it “good,” despite the fact that it could be a disaster toward the end?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s not how you evaluate a contract.

Comment From Daniel Carroll
Dave, if you were inventing the Box Score from scratch, what five categories would you list for hitters?

Dave Cameron: PA, BA/OBP/SLG, wRC+

Comment From Guest
If a hypothetical player pitched 162 perfect games by striking out all batters, and hit 1 homerun every game, would his WAR be in the 160 range?

Dave Cameron: Probably higher, actually. A 27 K perfect game would probably result in a WAR close to 1 by itself, and the HR would push it over the top. Basically, I think that kind of performance would break the scale.

Comment From Jake
Last Night, Paul and Jeff claimed missing part of a season seriously hurts awards chances. Is Kershaw still the CY Young frontrunner?

Dave Cameron: Probably not anymore.

Comment From Jerry Dipoto
First 3 things you would do to fix the Angels?

Dave Cameron: 1. Be patient

Dave Cameron: 2. Don’t panic

Dave Cameron: 3. Don’t overreact.

Dave Cameron: It’s two games.

Comment From BJP
You have shown not a shred of interest nor aptitude, yet the fantasy questions keep coming. When are you going to surrender and start taking a serious look at the game?

Dave Cameron: I don’t choose my interests based on other people’s interest in asking me about their interests.

Comment From Scott
Has fangraphs ever considered a manager-grading system? For instance: lineup grades, when to pinch-hit for the pitcher grades, did they bring in the best guy in a high-leverage spot grades?

Dave Cameron: There are too many variables that we don’t have access to. Say you give a manager an F for a line-up, but it turns out that the guy we wanted him to play that day had the flu and wasn’t able to go. Or the guy who we wanted him to bring in had trouble getting loose during warmups and wasn’t available. They don’t tell the public these things, but they happen.

Comment From Zach
Any chance Tony Sanchez wrestles away some playing time this year

Dave Cameron: Not if the Pirates are trying to win.

Comment From Guest
I’m very impressed that you (east coaster) stayed up to watch the conclusion of a west coast game last night. How often does that happen?

Dave Cameron: I work late.

Comment From Guest
Any ideas which team bought that supercomputer? And what they would use it for?

Dave Cameron: If I had to guess, I’d say the Royals.

Dave Cameron: And it was almost certainly used in anticipation of crunching a lot of data from player tracking systems.

Comment From Dewey
Brad Miller’s chances of being a 4 WAR player for a few years?

Dave Cameron: We have him as a +3 WAR player right now, so pretty good.

Comment From FRED
also, OZUNA for ROY. Get on the wagon.

Dave Cameron: Didn’t he spend like two months in the majors last year?

Comment From Mike
Most underrated team in MLB by projections….Gotta be the O’s right?

Dave Cameron: No, they’re not very good.

Comment From Rothbard
Why am I the only Redsox fan not panicking? Listening to the Boston sports radio is making me think I’m crazy.

Dave Cameron: Why are you doing that?

Dave Cameron: Turn it off. Do something else.

Comment From Mark
A lot of critics of the Mike Trout extension argue that he already had financial security. How is this possible and how much $$ are we talking about? Surely not even remotely close to $144 mil.

Dave Cameron: There is basically no scenario under which Trout gets non-tendered, so he had minimum arb payouts of $8-$10M based on performance already rendered. At the very least, he was going to get $25 or $30 million over next three years. And if he wanted a bigger guarantee, he could have taken out insurance.

Comment From LaLoosh
Do you think that Gregorius spending a few months in AAA impairs his market value because on a perception basis? or are we talking purely demand/supply that sets the value? Bottom line is that by waiting, will a team like the Mets (if they are really interested) get a lower price by having waited?

Dave Cameron: If he hits, there will be a market for him.

Comment From Catoblepas
yan gomes extended through 2 pre-arb, 3 arb, and 1 fa season for $23 million — steal for the indians? obviously we can’t expect him to replicate 3.7 WAR in 322 PA every year, but still, pretty damn good value, right?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what you think he might have gotten in arb. Probably a bit of a bargain, but catchers historically haven’t been well compensated.

Comment From zack
Where would you put the over under on Grady Sizemore plate appearances? 200?

Dave Cameron: 350.

Comment From BassmanUW
For me the Rays extending Archer and Moore this early is more a necessity for them than such a sure bet to get a steal. They can survive having one free agent year and some arbitration years where the guy is hurt, payroll wise. But once these sorts of pitchers hit free agency, the Rays will never be able to afford them on open market rates unless they get a new stadium. So they have to role the dice on these guys early to keep costs down later. It’s a calculated risk.

Dave Cameron: Correct. These types of deals come with low enough costs that the busts don’t hurt that bad.

Comment From Matt
Saw Sunday night the Padres shifted for Adrian Gonzalez. I looked at his spray chart from last year and it’s nothing like David Ortiz’s. What are teams looking for when deciding whether or not to shift?

Dave Cameron: Almost all ground balls are pulled, so remember, it’s just the infield shifting. The spray chart to the OF doesn’t really matter so much if the player isn’t likely to hit a ground ball to the left side.

Comment From Doug
Where the heck is Kendrys Morales going to end up? When?

Dave Cameron: Still think the Mariners sign him eventually.

Comment From cbird
where can we find the live score odds

Dave Cameron: On the scoreboard page. Just go to FanGraphs.com, then click scores.

Comment From Zachary
Does WAR include how many pitcher per PA a player sees, with the assumption it leads to lower quality opposition pitching later in the game?

Dave Cameron: No, because there’s no real evidence that is true.

Comment From Guest
I hadn’t seen any comment from you regarding the Indians/Gomes deal. Anything of note or your typical “arb buyout plus a few years” deal?

Dave Cameron: Pretty typical.

Comment From Zane Smith
Comparing this season to last, when does a decrease in a pitcher’s average FB velocity become a cause for concern?

Dave Cameron: Give it at least a few starts.

Comment From Mike
ROY Gausman or Schoop getting no love because…???

Dave Cameron: Gausman is in the minors, Schoop isn’t very good.

Comment From Scott
What would be the easiest/most reasonable change to make so that players like George Springer can be playing right this moment? I remember people freaking over Fernandez being up last year, but look how FUN he has been

Dave Cameron: There is no easy change that doesn’t involve either the owners or the players giving something up. Easiest structural change would be something like codifying seven years of team control and changing minimum service time to qualify as a year down to 20 days or something. But that would add a year of service before FA for non-star types who aren’t held down for service time reasons.

Comment From kilroy
Does anyone actually offer insurance to pre free agency guys like trout so they can wait for free agency? How does that work? Seems like some company would step in and take some of the value teams get from being the exclusive source of “set for life” money.

Dave Cameron: Yes, there are insurance companies who will sell a player a policy that protects him in case of injury. I’d expect that this will become a more prominent part of the negotiating process in the next few years.

Comment From Transient Gadfly
Have you looked at the current version of the mlb.com gameday app? If so, can you please tell me what the two green lights under the letter “C” (it’s next to the balls/strikes/outs indicators) indicate in the game summary?

Dave Cameron: Whether a team has a challenge remaining or not.

Comment From Christian
I cannot figure out any logical reason why Scioscia intentionally walked Cano to load the bases in the 3rd. We know that IBBs are almost always dumb but even old school wisdom says to take the lefty on lefty match up and not load the bases for the hot bat (Smoak). This move is pretty indefensible right?

Dave Cameron: Smoak was terrible as an RHB last year. From that perspective, it wasn’t much different from walking an LHB to get to another LHB.

Dave Cameron: Still weird, though.

Comment From J
Why doesn’t MLB.tv have a channel for live look-ins like on MLB network? I would watch that at least an hour a day.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d love to see some kind of curated MLB.tv channel where they pick the games for you based on the action. It’s not like they’re selling ads between innings that they want us to watch.

Comment From jay dog
Did you see Tulo’s play in the hole yesterday? Supposedly he’s moving better than he has since 09. Any chance he wrests the Gold Glove away from Andrelton?

Dave Cameron: Sure, if Andrelton dies.

Comment From Chris206
Favorite player growing up?

Dave Cameron: It was usually some limited value platoon guy. I loved Darren Bragg, for instance.

Comment From Scott
Ever run into a major leaguer that has actually been in one of these chats?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Jeff T
Jose Fernandez works extremely quick. Is there a way to quantify how much this impacts his team defence?

Dave Cameron: Studies have shown basically no correlation between pitcher pace and defensive performance, or pitcher performance, for that matter.

Comment From Jake
One of the things that confuses me about the trout contract is, the main reason he signed the team friendly contract he did, covering the risk, could’ve been done through insurance. If I were AIG, would I be making a smart move for, say, guaranteeing Trout $50 million in exchange for ~20% of future baseball earnings? Assuming Trout continues to be an 8-10 win player, AIG makes money, Trout gets his security, etc

Dave Cameron: From what I understand, policies don’t even cost that much.

Dave Cameron: I mean, it’s a good amount of money, but it’s not anywhere near 20% of future earnings.

Comment From Scott
Isn’t that how you evaluate some contracts, though? A contract that inches a team into the playoff hunt is more important than that same contract for, say, the Astros?

Dave Cameron: You evaluate it on the amount it changes the odds, not decide later than it was good or bad based on whether a team makes the playoffs or not.

Comment From Mike
Machado or Harper who do you start your team with?

Dave Cameron: Harper, easily.

Comment From Dan
When there’s a debate over if a guy is a SP or RP long-term, like a Carlos Martinez, don’t you eventually have to give him a healthy shot to start to figure it out? How would you approach such decisions if it were up to you?

Dave Cameron: It should depend on health, mechanics, pitch repertoire, and performance as a starter in the minors. There are guys who absolutely belong in the bullpen, and you don’t have to let them suck in the majors for a year before you conclude that.

Comment From Jimmy
Would you consider Trout’s generosity as a fault or an asset? He’s granting forgiveness to DiPoto for some pretty terrible sins.

Dave Cameron: I think making life decisions that involve intentionally taking less money than possible are generally as a positive character trait. On the other hand, one could argue that Trout had some responsibility to help elevate the pay scale for those that come after him. It depends on your perspective.

Comment From Richie
I guess a football huddle doesn’t bother me because I know something’s going on in there. But Ryan Braun leaving the batter’s box to readjust his gloves after every pitch? A LaRussa reliever staring at the runner, then stepping off, or freezing him by intentionally standing there till the batter finally calls time? AAARGHHHH!

Dave Cameron: So player communication and strategy is okay as long as it is talking in a circle but not okay if it is hand signs from a distance?

Comment From LaLoosh
What was the projection for the Red Sox going into the ’13 season? I don’t think expecting some fall back to the pack is unreasonable this year after way outperforming last season’s projection.

Dave Cameron: I think we had them at ~85 wins a year ago. Expecting regression is prudent, yes.

Comment From Daniel
Liberty’s favorite chew toy?

Dave Cameron: We just bought her a “Bully Horn” over the weekend, and she loves it a lot. Seems like it will last a while too. More of a chew distraction than a toy, though. Her favorite toy is a flirt pole, which is basically a squeaky toy tied to the end of a plastic fishing pole. She goes insane for chasing that thing. She will stand at the mantle (where it lives) and beg you to get it down. She loves it more than life itself.

Dave Cameron: If you have an active dog, I highly recommend a flirt pole. Just search Amazon for that phrase, and the one we got is like $10 or $11 with free shipping.

Comment From kramer
piggy-back on the take an 0-2 count: wouldn’t you want to take the pitch if it’s not in the exact spot you’re looking? not saying to “take the pitch,” just not swing unless it’s right where you’re looking.

Dave Cameron: You should take a pitch that is expected to be called a ball, and swing at a pitch that is expected to be called a strike.

Comment From Catoblepas
well the question wasn’t should he win the gold glove, it’s could he, and we all know how much the voters love the offensive stats when it comes to voting for the best fielder

Dave Cameron: Andrelton didn’t hit last year and won. He’s going to win every year until he breaks something.

Comment From Guest
The proposed MLB.tv channel could take you to the game with the highest current LI.

Dave Cameron: You could, but I think it’d be better if it was more than just about the situation. For instance, I’d probably pick the 6th inning of a Jose Fernandez start over the 8th inning of a Vinny Pastano relief appearance.

Comment From Joey
re: Morales – Do the Mariners sign me before June?

Dave Cameron: Mariners are team he signs with if he doesn’t want to wait until June. If he waits, they lose the pick they would get if he signed elsewhere anyway, so there’s no benefit to them to wait.

Comment From B.C.
Is wRC+ a tool to be used for predicting future success? Or better served as a way to evaluate players after the fact?

Dave Cameron: Both, but it’s designed to measure past performance.

Comment From Doug
Do you see the contract prices reaching a peak at some point in the near future? I am a diehard baseball fan, but I am getting pretty sick of these numbers that are coming out when the price for me to watch and enjoy continually goes up. I’m all for paying these guys major money, because it is a major market. But, where does it stop?

Dave Cameron: The price of your ticket has nothing to do with the contracts players are signing.

Dave Cameron: These contracts are being funded by TV deals, not ticket sales.

Comment From David
Insurance covers injury, sure, but not failure to perform. We sort of take for granted that Mike Trout has a decade of aweseomeness in front of him, but what if he doesn’t? Sometimes taking the money now isn’t so awful.

Dave Cameron: With a high enough premium, I’m sure Trout could get insurance that paid him a certain amount if he failed to get a FA offer for more than X dollars.

Comment From The Bureau
Listening to the podcast a few days back, got to the part where your dog is trying to lick Carson’s ears and immediately googled “dave cameron fangraphs dog.” The results were inconclusive. Where can I see a picture of your dog?

:

Dave Cameron: That’s from like four of five months ago, but she looks mostly the same.

Comment From Los
If insurance were to become prominent, wouldn’t it just be better for the team and player to work something out. It doesn’t make sense for either the team or the player for the insurance company to have a cut of the action.

Dave Cameron: Insurance would create competition, force teams to offer higher extensions until need for insurance went away.

Comment From DTSS
What if Trout got the most money he could and gave it to charities that most efficiently helped save the most lives? Wouldn’t that be more noble than a team friendly contract?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Dave Cameron: But one man’s nobility is another man’s greed.

Comment From Brad
Any tips on convincing my anti-dog wife to accept a dog into our family?

Dave Cameron: Depends on why she’s anti-dog. I love mine, but she is a lot of work, and I honestly don’t know if we could do it if I didn’t work from home. If you both work and are at the office all day, I’m not sure a dog is a great idea, honestly.

Comment From Prich
She looks fast… She ever take off running?

Dave Cameron: She is fast. I take her to the dog park 4-5 days per week, and she plays extended games of chase/tackle.

Comment From Brad
Your dog is adorable.

Dave Cameron: This is true. It is also her number one attribute.

Comment From Daniel
NL MVP: Harper/Freeman/Posey or the field?

Dave Cameron: The field, always.

Comment From Sean
Do you see the explosion of TV deals as a potential bubble? Isn’t there some risk of debundled/a la carte packages and the rise of streaming games severely reducing the value of media rights?

Dave Cameron: Yes, eventually, cable as it exists now will go away.

Dave Cameron: Okay, went a little overtime today, but have to get some lunch. Thanks for hanging out everyone.