When I asked about AGonz, park verses lineup, I was thinking that he would get a lot more at bats in the Red Sox lineup as they’d get around 5 times many times where the light hitting Padres only got around 4, etc. etc. In that context, is your answer the same?
The difference isnt there. The last three years as a team the Red Sox have average 6366 PA and the Padres 6189 a difference of 177 PA/year for the team
The greatest difference was last year @ 208 PAs
Even weighting it toward the front of the lineup thats only about 25 more PAs per year.
Gonzales avergaes 1 HR every 22 PA for his career and his best is 1 every 17 PAs
so the line-up differential is only 1 or maybe 2 HRs
Over the last 3 seasons SD has averaged 724.4 PA’s out of the #3 slot (where Gonzalez usually bats).
Over the last 3 seasons BOS has averaged:
739.7 PA out of the #3 slot (+ 15 PA’s)
727.7 PA out of the #4 slot (+2 PA’s)
707.7 PA out of the #5 slot (-17 PA’s)
(the 3 slots where Gonzalez has hit with BOS)
All 3 slots combined to average 725 PA’s.
Doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing Gonzalez with more times at bat
Thanks for the replies. So if AGonz has fewer PA than 700, that would be because of missed PAs because of injuries, right? I understand what you’re saying in that it would be foolish to count on a lot more HR from increased PAs, but overall it should help.
So let’s say the extra PAs resulting from a better lineup (25) will net him about 1.5 extra HR.
that of course is just generally, not fenway specifically; he also get to play 27 road games at Yankees, Orioles and Tampa instead of LA, SF and Arz.
even Still the monster in fenway is hard to account for as it seems to get into guys heads in different ways. But simply playing 81 game not in petco is good.
When I asked about AGonz, park verses lineup, I was thinking that he would get a lot more at bats in the Red Sox lineup as they’d get around 5 times many times where the light hitting Padres only got around 4, etc. etc. In that context, is your answer the same?
I asked the same follow up question in the chat, but didn’t get answered.
Obviously more PAs=more HR.
The difference isnt there. The last three years as a team the Red Sox have average 6366 PA and the Padres 6189 a difference of 177 PA/year for the team
The greatest difference was last year @ 208 PAs
Even weighting it toward the front of the lineup thats only about 25 more PAs per year.
Gonzales avergaes 1 HR every 22 PA for his career and his best is 1 every 17 PAs
so the line-up differential is only 1 or maybe 2 HRs
I’m surprised by this:
Over the last 3 seasons SD has averaged 724.4 PA’s out of the #3 slot (where Gonzalez usually bats).
Over the last 3 seasons BOS has averaged:
739.7 PA out of the #3 slot (+ 15 PA’s)
727.7 PA out of the #4 slot (+2 PA’s)
707.7 PA out of the #5 slot (-17 PA’s)
(the 3 slots where Gonzalez has hit with BOS)
All 3 slots combined to average 725 PA’s.
Doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing Gonzalez with more times at bat
Gonzalez has averaged 700 PA per year for the last four years. There’s basically nowhere to go but down.
Thanks for the replies. So if AGonz has fewer PA than 700, that would be because of missed PAs because of injuries, right? I understand what you’re saying in that it would be foolish to count on a lot more HR from increased PAs, but overall it should help.
So let’s say the extra PAs resulting from a better lineup (25) will net him about 1.5 extra HR.
What will the park give him?
well lets see here these will be roundish numbers.
In Petco he averages 1 HR ever 28.6 PA, and 1 HR every 15.7 on the road.
Assuming he gets half his PA at home and half on the road we see this
350 PA @ petco = 12.3 HR
350 PA anyother stadium = 22.3 HR
So the difference there is about 10, even if we take 1 away because the sox will bat about 50 less innings at home than on the road.
that of course is just generally, not fenway specifically; he also get to play 27 road games at Yankees, Orioles and Tampa instead of LA, SF and Arz.
even Still the monster in fenway is hard to account for as it seems to get into guys heads in different ways. But simply playing 81 game not in petco is good.