FanGraphs Chat – 6/5/13

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open. We’ll definitely talk about the BioGenesis report, but I’ll be honest, I don’t have that much to say about it at this point. So hopefully you’ll ask about other things too.

Comment From Keith
So what do the Royals do from here? Trade Butler, Gordon and Shields and start over…again?

Dave Cameron: My guess is they’ll do very little in season and Dayton Moore will be fired during the off-season, leading to a new regime and maybe a new plan.

Comment From JEB
I think the big news here is that Chris Perez was picked up last night for recreational drugs!

Dave Cameron: Chris Perez just seems to do so many things wrong.

Comment From Greg
Should the White Sox be looking to trade Sale at the trade deadline to rebuild their system?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Mike Zunino
Jesus Sucre is hurt. Will I be called up? Should I be called up?

Dave Cameron: No and no. My guess would be that the M’s put out an APB to other teams asking to buy a AAA catcher for cash.

Comment From indyralph
How many players are better than Yadier Molina right now?

Dave Cameron: Not very many. Maybe 5-10.

Comment From Denji
So is Machado now officially in the Trout/Harper/Stanton discussion?

Dave Cameron: Not quite yet, no.

Comment From Carl
How long does Iglesias have to hit to believe in him? He’s shown more power this year (at AAA and majors) than ever before

Dave Cameron: Longer than a few weeks.

Comment From Bob Loblaw
Given that some of Arte Moreno’s MO appears to be to try and “stick it to Texas” as much as possible, who’s excited about the Angels signing up Michael Young to a 2 year, 16 million dollar deal this offseason?

Dave Cameron: The funny thing is he forgot to stick it to Texas by failing to outbid them for Adrian Beltre. That single decision may have changed the entire balance of the AL West.

Comment From Phil
I noticed that on the ESPN Mock draft that you picked Evan Longoria and not Troy Tulo. What made you pick him? Was it based on his team-friendly contract?

Dave Cameron: For reference, Phil is asking about ESPN’s Franchise Player Draft, which went up over there yesterday. I took Longoria over Tulowitzki and Stanton primarily for health reasons. All three have had some injury concerns, but Longoria’s scare me a little less than Tulo’s.

Comment From Michael
Charlie Morton has one more rehab start before he’s ready to rejoin the bucco’s. Do you see him being productive in the majors?

Dave Cameron: He’s still going to be Charlie Morton, right?

Comment From Fish
Jonah’s article on Grantland helped clear up the potential legal issues a little, but can we expect to get an piece from Wendy today?

Dave Cameron: Wendy’s actually on vacation at the moment, but she’ll write something up shortly.

Dave Cameron: Shortly being not today, though.

Comment From JEB
I know hes only played in two games but, thoughts on Puig?

Dave Cameron: I’m very excited to see how he does against Major League pitchers.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
am I the only one that thinks guys that are 29-30 got greatly undervalued in the ESPN franchise draft yesterday? 6-7 more years of elite Miguel Cabrera trumps the chance at 10 years of very good non-Miguel Cabrera production in my opinion

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think there’s too much interest in upside/youth in that exercise. Take the wins now.

Comment From JEB
With Toronto and the Angels sucking it up, Cleveland could have a real shot at the wild card this year right? Supposing they don’t blow it like years past…

Dave Cameron: They need another pitcher.

Comment From Joe M.
What do you make of Matt Moore? Will he ever put it together? His peripherals are terrible this year.

Dave Cameron: i’m always a little skeptical of stuff guys who can’t throw strikes. Sometimes, they learn. Most times, they don’t.

Comment From Michael
Not sure if you follow the draft or not. But if so, who would you take #1? and who do you think goes #1?

Dave Cameron: I follow the draft in the sense that I read about it and I know who is available, but I don’t think I know enough to have an opinion that matters on who should go where. Based on what i’ve read, I’d probably take Appel, but I’m certainly not going to think it’s a bad pick if Houston takes someone else.

Comment From Will
Would you play Puig over Ethier/Crawford when all of the outfielders are healthy?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably pay half his contract and trade Ethier away.

Comment From Daniel F
Also, Mr. Cameron don’t international free agents like Cespedes and Puig have an advantage over American born players eligible for the draft in terms of the first contracts they get? Shouldn’t the MLBPA do more to get top players like Machado and Trout more money up front?

Dave Cameron: Puig was the last young Cuban to get a monster deal. The rule changes now mean that Cuban prospects are subject to the international spending limits, just like every other international prospect. Veteran Cuban players are not subject to those limits, but veteran Cuban players usually don’t get huge money deals.

Comment From Hank
So Peavy most likely had a bad rib in his previous start vs. the Cubs, doesn’t say anything, and then gets hammered vs. Seattle last night…like the White Sox need this headache on top of their terrible play already…

Dave Cameron: The play-through-pain-and-be-a-man mentality is just so dumb.

Comment From JEB
With the AL Central as close as it is, Peralta getting a 50 game suspension could be the biggest deal out of any of these suspensions, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I tweeted that out last night. The dropoff from Peralta to whoever would replace him would be huge.

Comment From zack
Did every team come out pretty well in the Bauer/gregorious/choo deal? Seems like all parties got what they wanted.

Dave Cameron: Cleveland wanted an overrated pitching prospect who would struggle at Triple-A?

Comment From Will
Were you surprised by Chris St. John’s finding that 80% of top 100 players were on Baseball America’s top 100 list?

Dave Cameron: Not really. BA does a good job.

Comment From JohnnyU
How much analytics do you think teams use in the draft?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the team. Some teams more than others, and potentially a decent amount.

Comment From Pete
Is abraham Almonte interesting?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure his mother thinks so.

Comment From Ryan
What do you make of Starlin Castro? Part of Cubs’ future or just a tease?

Dave Cameron: Talent is there, but isn’t getting better. Could take the leap eventually, or he might be Jose Lopez 2.0.

Comment From JT
Is Moustakas still considered up and coming? Is it too early for the -b word?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t write him off forever, but he’s clearly not a good big league hitter right now.

Comment From Tyler
what type of return could cliff lee fetch? more than what the brewers got for greinke?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how much money the Phillies are willing to pick up.

Comment From Guest
Do you suspect at all that Jesus Montero became a good hitting prospect because of his connections to Biogenesis, and do you believe his struggles have something to do with not having that anymore?

Dave Cameron: No and no.

Comment From Vin
Should the Blue Jays consider dealing Bautista or Encarnacion, and just deal Johnson at the deadline and try to reload for 2014?

Dave Cameron: I think there’s enough talent there to contend next year. I’d just retool, not rebuild.

Comment From Andrew
Not sure I’ve ever heard your view on Puig.

Dave Cameron: He looks like a star in the making.

Comment From Franchise Players
Odd question here: For the ESPN franchise player draft, Ryan Braun was taken pretty far down at 21. Were the writers potentially knowledgeable about the report that was to come out later in the day?

Dave Cameron: No, because those picks weren’t made in real time. We all made our selections a few weeks ago.

Comment From Aceathon
What kind of approach would you take to the plate against David Murphy?

Dave Cameron: Stand in the corner of the batters box and hide.

Comment From Eminor3rd
How ridiculous were the Cespedes and Harvey picks in the ESPN mock? How did Tulo drop to 19?

Dave Cameron: I almost took Tulo at 6. That he went behind a bunch of inferior players and a host of unproven pitchers was… interesting.

Comment From Fletch
Buying into Puig-mania yet?

Dave Cameron: The Padres have a Triple-A pitching staff, so at this point, I don’t think he’s actually been called up to the Majors yet.

Comment From Denzel
Is Stanton even in the Trout/Harper/Stanton discussion any more?

Dave Cameron: How much of his knee/hamstring problems do you think are just “why should I rush back to play for that?”

Comment From Brendan
Will the M’s move Brendan Ryan/Tom Wilhelmsen before the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Ryan yes, Wilhelmsen no.

Comment From Jimmy
As a Twins fan, I terrified of the Twins playing well enough for long enough to become a buyer at the deadline. Should I be?

Dave Cameron: No, that team is bad.

Comment From Bill
Should Iwakuma be on the AL all-star roster?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Cory
If you were the GM of a team with Lincecum on the roster, how would you deploy him right now?

Dave Cameron: Multi-inning relief ace.

Comment From Crusty
Everything I need to know about BioGenesis I read on THT in a piece by Eugene Freedman. Onto another topic… assuming Franklin doesn’t have the defensive skills to make it at SS, and further assuming Ackley returns to play 2B, where does Franklin fit in? As a utility infielder or as an around the field super sub like a Mark McLemore c. 2001?

Dave Cameron: The M’s will eventually have to trade one of the two.

Comment From Ben
Thoughts about what the Brewers can do to rebuild for 2 or 3 years down the road?

Dave Cameron: Focus on the other 20 roster spots not occupied by your stars.

Comment From Brian McCann
Who do you think my possible suitors will be this offseason?

Dave Cameron: His lefty pull power would seem to be a great fit for NYY, no?

Comment From Josh Donaldson
I might actually be kinda good?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, you might be.

Comment From zack
Other than votto is there a 1st basemen you would rather have for five years than Chris Davis?

Dave Cameron: Yes, many.

Comment From Jerry
Profar for Samardzija. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Rangers.

Comment From Yah-seal Pweeg
Porcello for Profar, possible?

Dave Cameron: Sure, as long as there’s another crappier Profar in the minors that you’re talking about.

Comment From Sammy
Thoughts on what the Braves should do at the deadline? Bullpen? Peavy-type SP? 3B upgrade?

Dave Cameron: Garza.

Comment From zack
Do you buy colonic brown as a solid big league regular?

Dave Cameron: Please tell me that no one named their kid Colonic.

Comment From Cascadian
Hultzen tearing up Tacoma. Ramirez also had nice start. Who gets the call first?

Dave Cameron: Hultzen is on the DL with a shoulder problem. I guess we have different definitions of “tearing up”.

Comment From nedley
What do the Angels do this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Throw more money at their problems, probably.

Comment From LaLoosh
think the Tigers are going to call Castellanos up soon as reported?

Dave Cameron: He’s not exactly tearing up Triple-A. Would be kind of odd.

Comment From Jed Hoyer
Also, how much does Stanton care if him taking his time getting back means the Marlins can’t get the same return for him on a trade? It’s fairly clear that, right or wrongly, he feels a bit betrayed by the organization.

Dave Cameron: This is why they should have traded him last year.

Comment From Will
Would you ever consider replacing Carson Cistulli with someone with a bit more polish for the Fangraph podcast host?

Dave Cameron: No. Carson’s awesome.

Comment From Karl
We know velocity peaks extremely early. Why don’t we see more 19-21 year old flamethrowers cutting their teeth in MLB bullpens?

Dave Cameron: Because it’s better for your development to work on secondary pitches in the minors.

Comment From David
Odds Chris Davis ends the season with a SLG north of .600 ?

Dave Cameron: 10%.

Comment From Jacob
What kind of return do you foresee for Nolasco at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: A modest one.

Comment From Greg
How soon can the Cubs contend?

Dave Cameron: Next year.

Comment From Tom
Thoughts on what the Cards should do at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Replace Victor Marte, get a real shortstop.

Comment From Frank
Mariners are 4th in fielding percentage…how good is their defense really?

Dave Cameron: Terrible.

Comment From Pork Sale
What kind of prospects would dealing for Cliff Lee cost? Nearly 70 million guaranteed for two years and change is a pretty steep price.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Phillies will have to eat some of the money if they want talent back.

Comment From Ned Flanders
1B over Davis: Votto and Fielder, maybe Pujols. Goldschmidt? Gonzalez? I think the list is a lot shorter than you’re letting on. Who are the “many” you’re referencing? Votto is the only clear cut winner. Fielder has the much better offensive track record, but his defense is atrocious. Pujols is in decline. Goldschmidt isn’t any more proven than Davis.

Dave Cameron: Anthony Rizzo’s an easy one for me. Encarnacion probably ahead of Davis too, though that’s closer.

Comment From asg
Have you reviewed your process in staking out the unconventional position that the Upton/Prado trade was decent for Arizona? Still correct as of that time?

Dave Cameron: Why would you think that two months of performance should change my mind?

Comment From Eminor3rd
Would the Rangers offer up Profar for Stanton if Cruz gets a 100 game suspension?

Dave Cameron: Before he spent the whole year on the DL, yes. Now, maybe not.

Comment From Grant
Everyone seems to be picking the Rangers and Tigers as the best in the AL, but what about the 4 contending AL East teams? Do you think any of them have a good shot at making the WS?

Dave Cameron: Boston is very good.

Comment From Richie
A defense with Brendan Ryan and no longer playing Montero is terrible? How so!

Dave Cameron: Morse and Ibanez are maybe the two worst corner outfielders in baseball.

Comment From Tom
SS upgrade for the Cards – Jimmy Rollins?

Dave Cameron: I think I made that suggestion last year, so sure, let’s do it again.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
Morse/Ibanez worse than Duda?

Dave Cameron: He’s the only challenger to their crown.

Comment From wixdashdashboard
matt carpenter, pretty darn good, no?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Daniel Nava
Is there a better story than me in baseball this year? Everything I overcame not only to make a major league roster, but to be a fringe all star player with a 140 wRC+, same as Justin Upton.

Dave Cameron: Definitely fun to see him doing so well.

Comment From Jerry
You said the Cubs can contend next year. How? Care to elaborate?

Dave Cameron: They’re a decent team now and their front office knows what they’re doing.

Comment From Vinny
You just said boston is very good… I believe you weren’t high on them before… Any specific reason for the change?

Dave Cameron: When was I not high on them?

Comment From Brian
Do people realize how awful J Upton was in May? Obviously you don’t want to rethink your opinion of a trade after 2 months but in this case i don’t even know which way you would want to rethink it.

Dave Cameron: Confirmation bias is a powerful drug.

Comment From LarryA
Is Valbuena OK enough to be part the contending Cubs?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s a nice role player.

Comment From Denzel
Garza? Don’t the Braves have a host of average-to-above average starting pitchers with a glaring need in the bullpen? And Beachy’s return isn’t going to help with the former.

Dave Cameron: Well, the bullpen is easier to address, and they’ll definitely go get a few LH relievers. But I think they could use a better guy at the front of their rotation.

Comment From Pork Sale
Would Pujols get $50 million on the open market right now?

Dave Cameron: Sure. But how much he would get would be a fascinating question.

Comment From Evan Gattis
Wandy Rodriguez just faked an elbow injury in the first inning to get pulled from the game so he wouldn’t have to face me.

Dave Cameron: Smart man.

Comment From Rubby of the Rose
With the Tigers needing some relief help, what would it take for a deal for Lincecum to be a late in RP? And would the Tigers be smart enough to use him for that? Or better question… would SF even trade him?

Dave Cameron: No reason for SF to trade him.

Comment From Joel
Would you predict that absolutely Jack Z and Wedge will be getting fired during or just after this season ends?

Dave Cameron: No, not absolutely.

Comment From John
Consensus is that Puig goes back to the minors when the DL’d Dodger outfield returns. Even if they trade Ethier, is Puig ready for big league pitching? He was in AA…

Dave Cameron: I’m guessing Puig is up to stay.

Comment From Hoad
Do you think selling some of the Brewers’ “stars” to upgrade their panoply of “scrubs” is a good solution? Or do you think Melvin can upgrade the scrubs outside of forfeiting current talent?

Dave Cameron: I think you keep Braun/Gomes/Segura and start over with everyone else.

Dave Cameron: Gomes = Gomez.

Comment From Vinny
Regarding Boston, I can’t remember specifically when you were down on them, but I read a lot of your stuff and they’ve never come up as possible WS contenders until now… no big deal, I was just interested in your thinking, since Boston had a slightly unusual off season (seekign ‘high character’ guys with short term, high dollar contracts). Thanks for the good work Dave.

Dave Cameron: They signed a bunch of guys that I’ve long been fans of, so I’m not sure why you’d have the impression that I didn’t think they were good.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Reds are in their window to contend before payroll becomes prohibitive. Is there a big move for them to make?

Dave Cameron: Be nice if they could get a real CF and move Choo back to a corner.

Comment From Guest
it seems that many fangraphs writers view gattis as a non regular…is there a particular reason?

Dave Cameron: Skepticism about his position, most likely. If he’s not a catcher, then he’s a less athletic Alfonso Soriano.

Comment From Ryguy
Is Billy Hamilton a “real CF?”

Dave Cameron: Not a major league one.

Comment From Josh
Should the M’s make a heavy pursuit of Ellsbury in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Why would you heavily pursue a guy who can’t stay healthy and is showing his single year power spike to be a fluke?

Comment From Andrew
Delmon Young worse than Morse/Ibanez/Duda

Dave Cameron: Maybe not!

Comment From Vinny
Orioles are sticking around, contrary to popular offseason opinion… what gives?

Dave Cameron: They can hit.

Comment From Speed kills
Free agency question, What’s a good estimate for Carlos Gomez’s contract ?

Dave Cameron: He signed a 3/24 extension a few months ago, which looks super prescient now.

Comment From Marcus A.
Aren’t the corner outfield spots amongst the lowest on the defensive spectrum? Doesn’t a top flight SS, an above average 3b and CF, and presumably at least average 2b make a non-terrible defense?

Dave Cameron: No. Balls still get hit to the outfield.

Dave Cameron: Alright, have to end this one a few minutes early today. Thanks for hanging out everyone.