FanGraphs Chat – 8/14/13

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s go ahead and talk some baseball, or puppies, or baseball playing puppies? The queue is now open, and the chat will start in 15 minutes or so.

Comment From Greg
Starlin Castro – obviously he’s not this bad, but the shine has kind of worn off, hasn’t it?

Dave Cameron: Sometimes, it takes guys a while to develop, but yeah, at some point, Castro’s going to have to get better.

Comment From Dave
I’m a Pirates fan, do you blame me for panicking every time they drop 3 or more games?

Dave Cameron: No, being a fan isn’t rational. Your team is good, and you shouldn’t worry too much.

Comment From JEB
How many years before the White Sox are good again? They seem to be in full rebuild mode right now.

Dave Cameron: They’re definitely starting from scratch and the farm system is not very good. It’s going to take a few years.

Comment From Baltar
You have trashed Dayton Moore for his moves and statements in the offseason and this season. Now, his team is a contender. Are you going to apologize?

Dave Cameron: His team is not a contender. His moves were poor and left the franchise in a worse state than they would have been. There’s nothing to apologize for. The Royals are a mediocre team that flushed away a big part of their future for a futile run at finishing in second place.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Will teams ever go all bullpen in the playoffs? With rest, a team like Royals or Pirates could do it. Use only ace starter, bullpen the rest of the series.

Dave Cameron: Eventually, yes, I think teams will stop asking mediocre starters to go 5+ innings in critical playoff games.

Comment From Pete
Who is your pick to win the NL central? We now have 3 teams all within 3.5 games of each other.

Dave Cameron: STL is the best team, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh hangs on.

Comment From Dougie
Paul Goldschmidt has got to be the favorite for the NL Player With The Most RBI On A Playoff Team Award at this point, doesn’t he?

Dave Cameron: D’Backs aren’t a playoff team at the moment. If they get in, though, yeah, he’s going to win it.

Comment From GSon
Seattle has a group of about three or four guys who could make a playoff pretender into more of a contender. Kendrys, Ibanez, Morse, & perhaps Gutierrez. What fuels the reluctance to take these players through revocable waivers to see what there is to see?

Dave Cameron: Morse, Ibanez, and Gutierrez have little or no value. The Mariners want to make Morales the qualifying offer.

Comment From FW
Any $ estimate of what it would take for the Braves to lock up Simmons with an extension? Considering most of his value comes from defense, they could seemingly get him at a slight discount compared to an offensive first SS.

Dave Cameron: That’s the reason not to do it. Defense peaks early and doesn’t really generate big arbitration paydays. He’s the kind of guy you go year to year with.

Comment From Bruce
Where can I find these projected standings I keep hearing about?

Dave Cameron: Click the tab at the top that says “Standings”

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Jose Abreu’s MLE #’s are nuts (and dwarf those of Cespedes/Puig). His Cuban league #’s also dwarf those two….how good could this guy be?

Dave Cameron: No reason to trust MLEs.

Comment From Benzedrine
As a fantasy player, I know that Nick Franklin is not good at all against lefties. Is this a long-documented struggle in the minors?

Dave Cameron: Yep. He’s been awful as a right-handed hitter basically forever. There’s always been a suggestion that maybe he should give up switch hitting.

Comment From Justin
If you were to make up a sabermetric Triple Crown, what three stats would it be comprised of?

Dave Cameron: Bat/Fld/Bsr

Dave Cameron: With Fld being fielding plus the positional adjustment.

Comment From Paul B
Whats better one 6 WAR player with two other positions 0 WAR or three 2 WAR players??

Dave Cameron: From a roster construction standpoint, many argue in favor of the 6/0/0 setup, since it’s easier to upgrade the replacement level guys. From a risk standpoint, you’re better off with 2/2/2, since one injury doesn’t sink your whole team. From a cost perspective, 2/2/2 is very likely cheaper. It probably depends on the team and the situation.

Comment From BassmanUW
Does the Cardinals’ pythagorean record take into account the fact that they’ve hit like crazy with RISP? Or does it just look at the run differential?

Dave Cameron: Hitting well with RISP leads to runs scored, which leads to a good run differential, so by it’s nature, pythag is giving the Cardinals credit for that. It’s one of the flaws of pythag.

Comment From Jake
Can you quickly explain the difference between rPM and DRS? I thought Plus/Minus was supposed to tell the whole tale of runs saved, but clearly I’m off on something.

Dave Cameron: Plus/Minus is part of DRS. DRS is Plus/Minus plus runs saved through throwing arm and what BIS calls good fielding plays. DRS includes rPM, but rPM is not all of DRS.

Comment From Anon21
Nationals were projected by analysts of every stripe to be much, much better than they are. Is this just a case of bad luck, every team hits its 10th percentile outcome sometimes, etc., or were there preexisting weaknesses in the team that were overlooked?

Dave Cameron: The lack of a decent #6 starter has been a problem, and was identifiable as one going into the year. But yeah, this is just a lot of underachievement going on at once.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
sure MLE’s are barely worth the paper they are printed on but does it not matter that Abreu has (much) better #’s in the Cuban League than Cespedes and Puig given their success so far?

Dave Cameron: There is so much noise in numbers from low level leagues that they’re not really worth much.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
What does MLE stand for with respect to Jose Abreu? I’m used to that standing for Mid Level Exception.

Dave Cameron: Major League Equivalencies. Basically, it’s the concept of translating a non-MLB performance into an MLB line, based on assumptions about league quality, park effects, etc…

Comment From NJQ
Whos the most likely to post a >.500 obp playing today?

Dave Cameron: Probably Votto.

Comment From Guest
Is there a baseline wRC+ for average replacement level production? I know replacement level varies by position, but so does ‘average’ production and we have a wRC+ standard for that.

Dave Cameron: wRC+ is not position specific, and it’s not that helpful to think of replacement level in terms of offensive production only. There are replacement level players who can hit and not field, and there are replacement level players who can field and not hit.

Comment From Crusty
Do the FLD & BSR portions of FG’s WAR stat update only on Sunday nights?

Dave Cameron: Baserunning is updated every day, I believe. UZR is updated weekly.

Comment From Justin
What does BA tell us that OBP or SLG doesn’t? Why do even saber-friendly websites still regularly use players’ triple-slash lines (instead of just OBP/SLG) to show their stats?

Dave Cameron: It tells you what type of hitter a player is. If you tell me a guy hit .320/.350/.500, I know that he’s an aggressive power hitter. If you just tell me .350/.500, I have no idea if he’s Yasiel Puig or Shin-Soo Choo.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Cool, we’ll just not discuss Jose Abreu’s potential impact at all then.

Dave Cameron: We can discuss it all we want, but I wouldn’t advise using Cuban league data to make any assumptions.

Comment From Gila Monster
What kind of deal does Choo get in the off season? He has been a top 15 player this season and his OBP makes him a perfect valuable leadoff guy?

Dave Cameron: Huge platoon splits, awful defense, walk-based offensive approach; I think he gets like 4/60 or something.

Comment From Gareth
Please say something Nice about the Cleveland Indians. I feel that you are not a fan of the organization.

Dave Cameron: I spent the entire off-season praising most of their moves. It’s amazing how people will see bias wherever they want.

Comment From Greg
Is the the one game play-in for the playoffs supposed to affect award voting? What about a game to resolve a tie for one of the play in games?

Dave Cameron: No, the awards ballots are due at the end of the regular season.

Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
Is there any reason to believe that a lineup full of high wOBA but low BA players would underperform their expected runs scored? Basically would there be enough of a scarcity of hits to skew run scoring events downward?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From chuckb
If you were Trout and the Angels offered you 10/$250 this offseason would you take it or would you rather have something shorter or even go year-to-year?

Dave Cameron: I think 10/250 he’d probably have to take.

Comment From Greg
Would choo be more valuable in a corner spot than in CF?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Dan Rozenson
Why has Mike Trout all of a sudden become a plus defender according to UZR? Seems like he was in the red only a few days ago.

Dave Cameron: He went from -0.5 to +2.2. Is it really that hard to think he made a couple good catches last week?

Comment From Tom
Where are you on the AL MVP debate?

Dave Cameron: There are two good candidates. It’s obvious which one will actually win.

Comment From Timothy
Do you think every sportswriter should have to publish their ballot? Let us see the clowns that thought Ibanez was an MVP candidate or Aaron Sele should be in the Hall of Fame.

Dave Cameron: I believe the BBWAA has either strongly suggested or mandated this now. I know they released almost or all of the ballots last year.

Comment From Chris Davis
I’m not a good candidate?

Dave Cameron: Have you seen what Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout are doing?

Comment From Shark Mapiro
If 2 players have the same stats, same skill sets, and have teams with similar records, but one is right handed and one is left handed, does the righty win MVP due to having to face more same handed pitching?

Dave Cameron: No, a hit is not more valuable just because it came against a same-handed pitcher.

Comment From Spencer
What type of pitcher could Josh Johnson be moving back into a neutral field in the NL? His xFIP makes me think he’s probably worth a shot.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it’s a move back to the NL thing. He seems like he’s probably hurt.

Comment From Greg
Regarding waiver reform – what if there were rules in place to prevent a team from claiming a player they had already DFA’d that season?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure why we should prevent a team from reclaiming a player that they didn’t want to lose in the first place. The problem is teams claiming guys that they just want to stash in the minors.

Comment From JD Abredrew
When the Royals overtake the Central and the A’s and Rays take the wildcard, who will win the MVP?

Dave Cameron: Mickey Mouse, because it will all be a dream.

Comment From Tyler
How do you get Fld and Bsr data from, say, the 1920s? Seems like you would have to have videos of these games to estimate such measures???

Dave Cameron: Pre-2002, BSR is just SB/CS, which we have the data for. For fielding, it’s based on Total Zone, which is a non-play-by-play metric that estimates defensive performance using data that is available at the time.

Comment From Timothy
Trout Hall of Fame O/U%?

Dave Cameron: 75%

Comment From Neal Huntington
Should I try to acquire Justin Morneau? Doing so would allow me to have him/Gaby Sanchez platoon at 1B, as well as putting Garrett Jones in RF-platoon or have a solid bench piece for playoffs. Agree/Disagree, assuming acq-price isn’t terribly much?

Dave Cameron: If you can get him for free, sure.

Comment From Ricky
So you’re telling me WAR pre-2002 is completely useless then? Cool, thanks.

Dave Cameron: You don’t really know anything about Total Zone. Your opinion that it’s useless is based on ignorance.

Comment From Marcus A.
Scott Boras wrote an article for ESPN this morning and used only ERA and wins when talking about Kyle Lohse, and only HR and BA when talking about Adam Laroche. Is he being selective to benefit his clients, or does he actually not pay attention to advanced stats?

Dave Cameron: He’ll make the case using whatever arguments best make his case.

Comment From Bkgeneral
True or False? Casper Wells would have given the Yankees same season Vernon Wells.

Dave Cameron: Better, probably.

Comment From chuckb
David Price is pitching where next April? What kind of haul will he bring in return?

Dave Cameron: I could see him in Texas, depending on what the Marlins do with Stanton. He’s going to bring back a serious haul.

Comment From Chris
What are your thoughts on Ryu going forward? I lot of people said overpay at the time of the signing.

Dave Cameron: Change-up and command are very good. Looks like a quality starter until he breaks down, as all pitchers eventually do.

Comment From Gila Monster
Why do we see so many teams in the MLB try to just make the playoffs compared to say the NBA where teams are more concerned with seed and how far they can make it? For examples, the Royals could make the playoffs,but they would probably lose, should they aim for advancing further in 2015 and be worse in 2013?

Dave Cameron: The difference between teams in the NBA is much larger, and their playoff series are far more likely to be won by the better team. The MLB playoffs are much more of a crapshoot.

Comment From Toodles
Besides yourself, who is the handsomest FGer?

Dave Cameron: Michael Barr.

Comment From Charles Barkley
Are the successes of Darvish, Ryu, Cespedes and Puig going to lead to massive overpays for international prospects in the coming years?

Dave Cameron: Probably.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Re Price Shouldn’t the Rockies be in that market? It seems the only way they can get top level pitching is trade market. Plus pitching in Coors might lower his value to a point they could resign him.

Dave Cameron: So you think that Price would get traded to Colorado, see his numbers go in the tank because he’s pitching at altitude, decide that he’s not any good any more and sign at a discount because he doesn’t understand park effects?

Comment From GSon
The Pirates and Cardinals series.. the most interesting so far during the start of the playoff push season?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s been fun.

Comment From MFG
We’re coming up on the 1-year anniversary of the Dodgers-Red Sox massive trade. And here we are with both teams charging into the 2013 playoffs. Any takeaways from this, other than “there are several ways to skin a cat”?

Dave Cameron: Yes. For the Dodgers, the best way to skin a cat was to have Yasiel Puig and Hyun-Jin Ryu carry their overpaid “stars”.

Comment From Greg
The Cubs have a ton of money to spend this offseason – will they? Any players you think they’re likely to be after?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if they went after Ellsbury. Theo obviously knows him from his Boston days, and he’s young enough to still be good when their kids are ready.

Comment From Prich
If you were running the Marlins and had to trade him, which team could put together the most preferable package for Stanton between: STL, BOS, SEA, PIT, TEX?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably target Boston, hoping to land Bogaerts/Bradley and whatever else they’d kick in with those two.

Comment From Bring Back Houston
Is it at least possible that the NL Central is really good for the next couple years? Could see the Cubs rising quickly, Brewers being less awful.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that division looks pretty tough going forward.

Comment From Benzedrine
Why don’t more pitchers throw splitters? It seems like a good pitch to use for GB and K’s. Could be good for guys who have poor changeups.

Dave Cameron: There’s a long standing belief that the split-finger is a quick path to the surgeon’s table.

Comment From Theo
Bogaerts/Bradley over Tavares/Martinez ?

Dave Cameron: Yes, easy.

Comment From BassmanUW
If the Marlins had a reasonable owner, would they be looking to extend Stanton instead of trading him? That’s a team with some promise in the not too distant future, if Loria doesn’t go ahead and continue to Loria the team.

Dave Cameron: If you’re Giancarlo Stanton, why would you re-sign there?

Comment From Benzedrine
What kind of impact will Gabe Kapler have in mainstream sports analysis? It seems like a lot of people are listening.

Dave Cameron: It’s definitely helpful for a guy with credibility to be saying the things he’s saying.

Comment From Tones
What do you make of CC’s struggles this year? Do you buy into the whole “he should gain back the weight” argument?

Dave Cameron: He’s adjusting to life without his best fastball. It takes a while.

Comment From Marcus A.
Has Jurickson Profar’s trade value gone up or down this year? On one hand he’s been decent in the big leagues even though he’s just 20 years old, on the other he’s lost a year of control and hasn’t been great, regardless of age.

Dave Cameron: He hasn’t lost a year of control, because they called him up well after the point in which a player can accrue 172 days of service. I’d say his value is still about what it was.

Comment From Bring Back Houston
I know Stanton is really, really good, but some of the trade proposals I’ve seen for him are borderline ridiculous. Are they really going to get that much for him? Sounds like only teams with a slug of Top-50 prospects need apply. I know he’s been hurt and that environment sucks (for both hitters and human beings with souls), but do we just throw out this year? .348 wOBA at 23 is really nice, yes, but sell-the-farm worthy when pre-arb guys are only getting more and more valuable?

Dave Cameron: If you’re judging Stanton on a half year worth of performance, you’re doing it wrong.

Comment From chuckb
Do you think Pettitte makes the Hall? If not, is it because of HGH or that he wasn’t good enough?

Dave Cameron: He had a slim chance before PEDs, but those will basically knock him out. The bar for pitchers is absurdly high right now. The fact that Schilling isn’t in is a joke.

Comment From kramer
who has the smartest front office?

Dave Cameron: TB, STL, OAK, BOS, CHC… there are a lot of crazy smart front offices out there now.

Comment From my jays are red
as a Red Sox fan, I’d like to see Stanton here. but I don’t know if he’ll be worth Bogaerts and Bradley and possibly Cecchini / Renuado + another prospect, should I be rooting for him to come to our team? I don’t really expect more than a 130+ WRC year in and year out for Stanton.

Dave Cameron: You’re underselling him. He’s a monster.

Comment From Bud
Purported trade between Seattle and D’backs in hindsight – fair trade for each team, or a disaster for one of the teams?

Dave Cameron: In hindsight, Mariners should be pretty happy Upton turned it down.

Comment From Brian
The Shane Victorino contract isn’t looking that bad. He’s been decidedly above-average this year. Do you think he can sustain this success?

Dave Cameron: His UZR is something like +22. So, yeah, no.

Dave Cameron: But he’s a good underrated player.

Comment From Chris
Puig and Ryu carrying the Dodgers’ overpaid “stars?” Weren’t Puig and Ryu thought to be overpaid themselves at the time of their signings?

Dave Cameron: They cost, what, $80 million for 12 years of team control between them? Yes, there were skeptics, but it’s not like those two were crazy expensive.

Comment From Adrian Gonzalez
I am not that overpaid this year, though I most certainly will be in 2015-2018

Dave Cameron: No, but Kemp/Ethier/Beckett have been giant wastes of money.

Comment From Japes
Why hasn’t there been more attention paid to the fact that Pedroia has been decidedly average?

Dave Cameron: Because he hasn’t been?

Comment From Tom
Scariest 1-2-3 of the potential playoff teams?

Dave Cameron: Detroit, easy.

Dave Cameron: And their #4 is okay too.

Comment From AGuy
Thoughts on Dan Haren’s recent success?

Dave Cameron: He’s basically a guy who lives and dies with the HR now. When ball stays in yard, he’s good. When it doesn’t, he’s awful.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Name five Astros starters without looking!

Dave Cameron: Dominguez, Castro, Altuve, Bedard, Lyles, Harrell.

Dave Cameron: Wallace?

Dave Cameron: This is hard.

Comment From BassmanUW
Detroit to me seems like the team that is best built for the playoffs. They’re a good but not great regular season team playing in a terrible division, but then they just got to throw the front end of that rotation at you over and over again in the playoffs. With that said, when things start to go south for that team it’s going to happen in an ugly fashion, similar to the current Phillies.

Dave Cameron: They’re a great regular season team too. They’re the best team in baseball, basically.

Comment From Jim
What’s wrong with the giants?

Dave Cameron: Pablo Sandoval apparently sucks now.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for this week. The puppy needs lunch, and then a trip to the vet. Don’t forget about the FG meet-up in Boston on Friday night.