FanGraphs Chat – 8/28/13

Dave Cameron: We’ll be starting just as soon as I hit publish on this piece explaining some of the features of our new Playoff Odds page. The queue is now open.

Comment From Guest
how is the going rate of a win on the open market calculated?

Dave Cameron: We use projected values from forecasting systems like ZIPS and Steamer along with aging curves to create a forecast number of wins over the length of the contract. So, say you’re signing Jacoby Ellsbury for 7/150 this winter, and over the next seven years, Ellsbury is projected to accumulate 25 WAR. The contract would pay him an average of $6M per win over that span.

Comment From Smell the Glove
Can someone please explain Jed Gyorko? Crazy 2nd half, including going from decent-to-good BB% his whole professional career to a 1.6% in the 2nd half.

Dave Cameron: 2nd half is, what, 150 plate appearances? Things happen in small samples.

Comment From GSon
Excited to see how Taijuan Walker does in his first ML start on Friday?

Dave Cameron: They haven’t said that’s what they’re doing yet, and I don’t think he’s ready.

Dave Cameron: Plus, it’d be a waste of a 40 man spot.

Comment From Hal
Should the W/L be eliminated or just talked about a lot less?

Dave Cameron: When was the last time you used a horse and buggy as a mode of transportation? That’s what W-L is equivalent to.

Comment From Hal
Which offensive stat do you always look at first?

Dave Cameron: wRC+.

Comment From Eminor3rd
In your opinion, which team is “in the worst shape,” defined by how far they are away from likely contention?

Dave Cameron: The Astros.

Dave Cameron: But I trust the people in charge to get them there eventually.

Comment From Johnny
Dirk Hayhurst suggests that the Blue Jays should buy out Adam Lind for $2M (he has a $7M option) and pursue Justin Morneau. I am of the belief that Morneau is pretty much done at this point, and that the Jays would be better off picking up Lind’s option and finding him a platoon partner. Am I right?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Bkgeneral
The Reds seem to be running on fumes. Bullpen is a mess, and rotation has taken two hits. They got enough?

Dave Cameron: The wild card race could get interesting. As I just noted in the post about playoff odds, the Nationals schedule the rest of the way is hilariously soft.

Comment From Gregory
Rumors are that the Giants aren’t going to offer much for Lincecum this offseason. Mistake or do they know something we don’t?

Dave Cameron: Seems like they’re probably best off making him a qualifying offer and leaving it at that. If he takes it, 1/14 for Lincecum is not bad. If he doesn’t, then they get an extra draft pick.

Comment From DetFan
Baseball Propectus has the Tigers at 25% to win the WS. You have them at 17%. This basically comes down to how you are projecting playoff games right? What are you doing different?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know what they’re doing to get that number, but I’m more comfortable with ours. And, by the way, our system loves the Tigers.

Comment From Anthony
You touched on this on twitter yesterday, but very little of the coverage I’ve seen of the Pirates/Mets trade even mentions Byrd’s PED suspension (just last year) or his Contee ties. Do you think people don’t want to spoil both Byrd’s and the Pirates’ feel-good stories?

Dave Cameron: I think people just don’t really care about steroids use unless its a big name guy who hits a lot of homers.

Dave Cameron: Or unless the media tells them to care.

Comment From GSon
Do the M’s deal Kendrys now that he’s been claimed?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely.

Comment From Gregory
Who would you rather have going forward – Lincecum or Garza?

Dave Cameron: For the same money, Garza. But for the price they’re going to get this winter, probably Lincecum.

Comment From CW
What do you make of the Astros, 6th in the majors in wOBA and wRC+ over the last 30 days? Are even team stats too noisy in this sample size?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, last 30 days numbers are basically trivia. They don’t really mean anything.

Comment From Furman
I’m afraid to jinx him, but is Ackley starting to turn things around? Has anything changed about his approach or is he just getting lucky.

Dave Cameron: His BABIP over the last month is like .900. The additional power is nice, but there doesn’t seem to be anything like a real core change.

Comment From Gregory
Why do so many people have such a hard time embracing or even accepting DIPS?

Dave Cameron: Because it’s difficult to watch a pitcher give up a line drive off the wall and think “he had nothing to do with that”.

Comment From Guest
Is a power rankings type feature being considered? That would be a great place to have non-schedule adjusted information. It seems misleading to have a ‘projected standings’ page that intentionally ignores strength of schedule.

Dave Cameron: Now that we have the Playoff Odds page, we’ll likely be combining and refining things, so that those two pages work together a little better than they do right now.

Comment From Chris
With Reddick out again could the A’s be in on Morse?

Dave Cameron: No, they’re a pretty smart team, and smart teams don’t play Michael Morse in the outfield.

Comment From JEB
Is Ben Zobrist going to rebound next year, or are we seeing a normal regression from him that we should be used to?

Dave Cameron: He’s getting older.

Comment From Gregory
Why don’t more pitchers throw splitters? Seems like pitchers who feature that pitch get a lot of whiffs with it.

Dave Cameron: Belief is that it’s also terrible for your arm.

Comment From Ira
Does the Playoff Odds stuff require in-season data? If not, what are pre-season playoff odds based on?

Dave Cameron: The projected mode uses Steamer/ZIPS forecasts. So, before the season, it will just be based on pre-season projections, and then in-season, it uses the updated projections that account for most recent data.

Comment From Rain Dog
What are the Odds that Crane gets $250m a year average over the next 8 years out of the Astros, the way McCourt did with the Dodgers?

Dave Cameron: None.

Comment From David
If you’re Boston, what do you do for 1B next year?

Dave Cameron: Depends on whether I’m re-signing Ellsbury or another expensive OF to replace him. Probably makes the most sense to find a cheap platoon partner for Carp and use the savings to bolster rest of team.

Comment From John
Shane Victorino ranks tied for 4th in WAR for all outfielders, hasn’t been terrible batting against righties, currently only hits right handed,and is by far the best defensive right fielder. This has to rank high as one of the most unpredictable seasons right?

Dave Cameron: Victorino has been a good player for the better part of a decade.

Comment From Anon21
If you bumped Simmons up to a 100 wRC+, where would he place on your hypothetical NL MVP ballot?

Dave Cameron: Probably in the top 5.

Comment From Chris
You think Ellsbury will get 7/150?

Dave Cameron: No, I think he gets 7/125.

Comment From Cuban Joe
Is Joey Votto hurting the Reds offense by walking too much? Or is that crazy talk?

Dave Cameron: Super crazy.

Comment From Billy
Does the Giant’s volatility from year to year speak to how unpredictable pitching is? The team is built on good young starting pitching (and an MVP catcher). You need pitching, but maybe you can’t rely on it long term TOO much?

Dave Cameron: Actually, their offense carried their pitching last year. Angel Pagan getting hurt and Pablo Sandoval sucking are the main reasons they weren’t good this year.

Comment From Justin
Is $/WAR the same for hitters as pitchers?

Dave Cameron: It’s an overall average. Not every player is going to sign for $5M per WAR. It’s like saying milk costs $3 per gallon. It’s probably more than that at Whole Foods, less than that at WalMart.

Comment From Dan
Should MLB eliminate deterministic draft order to prevent teams (like this year’s Astros) from tanking for draft picks? Should there be a salary floor?

Dave Cameron: I’m of the opinion that we just shouldn’t have a draft. But no, a signing floor isn’t a very good idea.

Dave Cameron: salary floor, I mean.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, two minute break.

Comment From LarryA
Do you think that there will ever be a medical concensus on how to treat young pitchers? you have to figure there will be some kind of discovery within the next 20 years, right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably even sooner than that. I’d imagine that the ASMI guys or some biomechanics expert will figure something out eventually.

Comment From Jenna Haze
There is currently a RP in “FanGraphs: The Game” with 159.2 IP and a 3.20 FIP, which results in a 1.6 WAR. Meanwhile, there is a SP in “FanGraphs: The Game” with 164.1 IP and a 3.23 FIP, which results in a 3.4 WAR. What is the most likely explanation for this giant gap in WAR? Is the difference in replacement level of a SP and a RP that large? Is it possible that the current WAR for calculation relievers isn’t meant to handle a RP with 160 IP since that will never happen any time soon in real baseball?

Dave Cameron: Pitching in relief is a lot easier, so yes, the difference in replacement level is that large.

Comment From zack
In regards to Context batting runs, would it be fair to say there is a difference between unsustainable and lucky? A .400 avg w/RISP might not be sustainable, buut over a 50 or 60 game stretch someone could hit really well and not just be lucky.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s definitely a difference between “you can’t do that again” and “you didn’t do anything to cause that result”.

Comment From Matt
Before injuries, would you rather have a young Grady Sizemore or Bryce Harper?

Dave Cameron: Harper, easy.

Comment From rinchond fontaine
How much would you pay Jacoby Ellsbury in free agency?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably top out around 6/100.

Comment From Hoozer
do you think we’ll ever see a trend where teams sign SP’s for bigger dollars but shorter years, to protect themselves against bad long term contracts and career altering injuries that always happen to SP’s?

Dave Cameron: No, because players prefer long term security over annual salary maximization.

Comment From Dan
Pretend I’m a guy who wants to use statistics to learn more about the quality of a player. I go to FanGraphs search for Player X and Player Y. What stats should I start with (e.g. Level 1 stats) and what stats should I investigate further (e.g. Level 2 stats)?

Dave Cameron: For hitters, I’d start with BA/OBP/SLG, then look at things like his BB/K/ISO/BABIP to see whether those numbers are based on a normal skillset or if there’s something weird. For pitchers, ERA/FIP/xFIP, then look at BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%.

Comment From Brian S
Are you able to briefly summarize the main difference between the FG playoff odds and the BP variety?

Dave Cameron: Different inputs. We’re using ZIPS/Steamer and our own depth charts, they’re using PECOTA and their depth charts.

Comment From Guest
Why do League wOBA’s = 96 and not 100?

Dave Cameron: You mean wRC+, but it’s because of pitcher’s dragging down the average. Click on the non-pitcher tab, and it will be 100.

Comment From Jack
Is there a generally agreed-upon pronunciation guide for sabermetrics? I never know when to say “war” or “W.A.R.”, “B.A.B.I.P.” or “bah-bip”, etc.

Dave Cameron: I think everyone does it differently. I wrote a post on “the language of FanGraphs” a few years back that has my personal choices.

Comment From Guest
Yadier or Kershaw for MVP?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw.

Comment From Mark
Question re accounting for defense. Reds v. Cards Mon. night. Bottom of first, Jay on first base with two out. Craig rips ball into RF corner. To my untrained eye, Bruce makes an above-average play to get to the ball quickly and fire it back in, holding Jay at third. Next batter makes an out to end the inning. Does Bruce get “credit” in UZR or other stats for that play? Does Jay get “penalized” for not scoring? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: If the system agrees with you that the runner usually scores on that play, then yes, Bruce would get credit for it in the ARM section of UZR. And yes, if the system thinks that a runner normally scores on that play, then Craig would get docked in UBR.

Comment From zack
Are you concerned at all about Votto’s power outage? Career low .190 ISO. Also, is there a point where trading OBP for SLG is worth it? Say 10 points of OBP for 25 points of slugging?

Dave Cameron: General estimates have OBP as equal to 1.8 points of SLG. So, more like 10 points of OBP for 18 points of slugging.

Comment From Guest
With Trout putting up another big BABIP #, where do you see it normalizing to, in the near future.

Dave Cameron: I’d say he seems like a true talent .350ish guy.

Comment From Smell the Glove
Walk rate normalizes in 120PA. Don’t be so dismissive of Gyorkos 1.6% 2nd half walk rate

Dave Cameron: That’s a complete misuse of the research on stabilization rates, and why I’m not a fan of the way those have been presented.

Comment From Table
Is there a WAR benchmark for making the hall of fame? Is getting into the 50’s enough to be a legit candidate?

Dave Cameron: 60ish, though it’s lower for offense-heavy guys and higher for defense-heavy guys.

Comment From Chris
What do you do in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Write about baseball. There’s a lot going on in the offseason.

Comment From Klatzy
Mariners have cut ties to Blengino and Tango, two stat guys. Are the M’s a scouting first organization now (at least until the end of 2014).

Dave Cameron: This happened last winter.

Comment From Guest
What is your opposition to a salary floor? Spend below $50M and you lose xx% of the difference in revenue sharing.

Dave Cameron: If a team is going to be awful and wants to put all their resources into scouting and player development, forcing them to sign a few old free agents instead won’t help them at all.

Comment From Jonathan
Regarding DIPS theory, is it more accurate to say “the pitcher has no control over where the ball is hit?” or “the pitcher has no control over how hard the ball is hit?” Or are both accurate?

Dave Cameron: I’d say neither are accurate. It’s more like the pitcher has little control over whether a ball in play becomes an out or a hit.

Dave Cameron: Angle, trajectory, and even hardness of contact are within the pitcher’s control to some degree.

Comment From Michael Scarn
If you were the Red Sox, would you trade Bogaerts, Bradley, and Owens for Stanton in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. It’d be a tough call.

Comment From Teddy
Who would you rather have on your favorite team -Stanton or CarGo?

Dave Cameron: Stanton. He’s better.

Comment From Guest
Mecical consensus for young pitchers – don’t let human beings throw baseballs at 90+ MPH 80 times every five days. If they do, their muscles and ligaments take damage and eventually fail.

Dave Cameron: Well, yes, but there’s probably some things that are less harmful than others.

Comment From Whipple
So by your estimation to make OPS a more meaningful stat it would make sense to multiply the OBP portion by 1.8 and then add them together?

Dave Cameron: People have done that before, yes. And it correlates pretty well with things like wOBA. Of course, in today’s age, why not just use a computer/phone/tablet and look up wOBA rather than doing it yourself?

Comment From Michael Scarn
People seem to be writing off the Red Sox and Rangers as a threat to the Tigers. Do you see the Tigers as really that far ahead of the pack?

Dave Cameron: They’re a significantly better team overall, yes.

Comment From Rudy
Does Kershaw ever throw a 10+WAR season?

Dave Cameron: If you’re going by RA9-WAR, maybe.

Comment From Cream
What’s going on in the standings page, re: Projected W%? Three teams projected to finish at 94-68, with 2 different W% (.583, .581), similar at 95-67 (.589, .586). What’s the deal with these differing win percentages?

Dave Cameron: Rounding.

Dave Cameron: Two minute break again.

Comment From Rudy
Out of curiosity, based on internet statistics, what is Fangraphs busiest month?

Dave Cameron: April, usually. July is good too, but April is generally our traffic peak every year.

Comment From Justin
Is there any way to communicate to a less-stat-savvy baseball fan approximately what a 2, 4, 5, 10, etc. WAR season looks like? Like, “a guy playing average defense in left field who hits 30 homers with a .350 OBP, that’s a 3 WAR season” — something like that?

Dave Cameron: +2 WAR is an average player, so a second baseman who isn’t great at anything. +5 WAR player is a star, one of the best players at his position. +10 WAR is the best player in the game and an easy HOFer.

Comment From Prich
Nick Franklin- Is the athleticism (arm, speed, baseball IQ) there to be a serviceable LF?

Dave Cameron: He’d probably be okay out there, but the bat isn’t what you want from a corner OF.

Comment From Jeff
Dave – is there a way on the new feature to see opponents winning percentage ROS? The Indians, for example, play no one who is likely to be above .500 (Mets, Royals, White Sox, Twins, Astros) after Sept. 5th.

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine we’ll add some column for SOS or something in the future.

Comment From buddy
Has anyone around these parts ever looked into the splitter being terrible on the arm? Or even not around these parts; seems like prime candidate for objective analysis, like what folks have put together regarding extreme slider usage.

Dave Cameron: I think this a bit harder, because there’s not so many obvious differences between a splitter and a change-up unless you have grip photos.

Comment From Andrew
Your comment of misuse of stabilization rates; I see several issue with them, but how would you present them better?

Dave Cameron: I don’t like the idea of a “point” at which things become stable/normal/etc… People interpret that as useless before that point and gospel after. It’s much more accurate to show it as a line at which confidence is always increasing upon.

Comment From JEB
Two minute dog break? How is the puppy, training coming along well?

Dave Cameron: Yes, these breaks are for the dog. She’s doing much better, but I wanted to give her some outside time during the chat, so I have to go stop her from digging holes in the yard from time to time.

Comment From Guest
Matt Carpenter has 5.4 WAR right now (another 0.7 RoS projected). What do you expect next year?

Dave Cameron: Probably more like +3 to +4 WAR, playing a lot of third base.

Comment From DJ
You really think that Stanton is worth Bogaerts, Bradley and Owens? I know Stanton is one of the best young players, if not best players, in the game, but that’s a huge haul for Miami

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it is. But he’s an elite young talent.

Comment From Allen
When does Tajuan Walker make is MLB debut?

Dave Cameron: If Mariners actually care about things like 40 man roster spots and the value of having open ones during the winter, 2014.

Dave Cameron: They haven’t shown that they do, though.

Dave Cameron: Okay, puppy is demanding attention, and it’s hot out here. I’m going to go feed her lunch and get some AC. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.