FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 15–28

With the playoff pictures in both leagues nearly settled with a month left to play, big matchups between the best teams lose a little meaning without the high stakes of a close pennant race hanging in the balance. Still, there are a few competitive divisions, and the Wild Card race in both leagues should be exciting down to the end of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Dodgers 88-38 -4 123 79 80 2 180 100.0%
Astros 82-47 0 113 85 81 18 181 100.0%

Despite nine wins over their last 13 games, the Dodgers have slowed down just a touch, though they’re still on pace for 113 wins this year, or a .698 winning percentage. History awaits if they can crest the .700 mark: Only the 1998 Yankees and 2001 Mariners have finished a full 162-game season with a winning percentage that high or better. After wrapping up their series with the Marlins on Monday, they have a tough stretch of games ahead of them: three in New York against the Mets and then six games against the Padres split up by a three-game set against the Giants. If they can get through this part of their schedule at their current pace, they’ll have a good shot of becoming the third team ever to finish with 114 wins or more.

Even though they just dropped two of three to the Orioles over the weekend, the Astros have elevated themselves over all the other teams in the American League. Houston has played extremely well all season long and has a soft schedule on the docket, with six straight series against teams with records below .500. Of some concern: the Astros scored just four runs total against Baltimore. Justin Verlander, the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award, was also forced to exit his start on Sunday with a calf injury. The offensive woes should sort themselves out, but losing Verlander for an extended period of time would be a serious blow.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Yankees 78-50 -6 116 88 82 12 179 100.0%
Mets 82-47 4 112 89 94 5 157 100.0%
Cardinals 74-54 -2 116 98 98 20 161 97.7%
Braves 79-50 0 109 88 85 3 153 100.0%

The Yankees got back on track a bit, putting together a five-game win streak early last week, including a pair of victories over the Mets. They couldn’t keep it going in Oakland over the weekend, though, splitting a four-game series against the hapless A’s. Six games against the surging Rays over the next two weeks loom large; New York still holds the advantage in the AL East, but the team’s August free fall makes that position more tenuous than the 7.5-game lead over Tampa Bay looks on the surface.

Sunday was the first time since the All-Star break that the Mets and Braves both lost on the same day. During the second half, these two NL East rivals have matched each other with 24–12 records, with Atlanta still trailing in the division by three games despite all the ups and downs. This is shaping up to be the most exciting division race down the stretch.

The Cardinals won a pair of dramatic games against the Braves over the weekend, scoring a couple off Kenley Jansen on Saturday for the walk-off win and then tallying four in the bottom of the eighth on Sunday Night Baseball to secure the series win. St. Louis has the second-best record in baseball since the All-Star break and has opened up a six-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Mariners 70-58 1 105 102 92 6 131 94.0%
Blue Jays 68-58 0 115 96 100 6 141 91.3%
Rays 70-57 0 104 90 102 3 124 85.1%
Phillies 72-56 0 104 87 94 -23 121 89.1%
Padres 70-59 1 101 96 93 14 127 65.2%

The Mariners had quite an eventful weekend. They inducted Ichiro Suzuki into their team Hall of Fame, and as they honored one franchise icon, they signed their next, Julio Rodríguez, to a massive long-term contract. They also took three of four from the Guardians in a potential AL Wild Card preview. Bolstered by the addition of Luis Castillo, Seattle’s pitching staff has allowed just 3.6 runs per game in August and just three runs on average over their last 16 games.

The Blue Jays entered the weekend riding high after winning three of four in New York and sweeping the Red Sox in Boston earlier in the week. But they fell flat on their faces after that, scoring just three runs against the Angels in a three-game sweep at the hands of Los Angeles. They’ll look to get back on track against the Cubs and Pirates this week while looking ahead to a huge four-game series against the Orioles next week.

The Rays are 13–7 over their last 20 games, helping them leapfrog Toronto and Seattle to claim the top spot in the AL Wild Card race. Injuries have crushed their roster, but they’ve managed to keep moving up the standings by leaning on their considerable depth. That depth will be bolstered by the return of Wander Franco, who had been sent out on a rehab assignment and suffered a setback but will resume playing sometime this week.

The Phillies activated Bryce Harper off the IL on Friday after he missed just shy of two months with a thumb injury. When he went down, Philadelphia was just four games over .500 and two games back in the NL Wild Card race. In his absence, they went 34–20, the fourth-best record in the NL over that span, and now hold the second Wild Card spot with a four-game lead over the Brewers, the top team on the outside looking in. With Harper now back in the fold for the final month of the regular season, the Phillies are well positioned to make their way back to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

Since acquiring Juan Soto at the trade deadline, the Padres have gone 10–13 and are barely clinging to the last NL Wild Card spot. Soto has produced exactly as you’d expect him to, but it’s another trade deadline acquisition that’s really hurt the team. Josh Hader allowed six runs to score in just a third of an inning yesterday; he’s now given up 12 runs as a member of the Padres. Somewhere you can hear the Brewers shouting “vindication!”

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Guardians 67-59 0 98 101 87 15 116 67.6%
Brewers 67-59 1 104 97 98 -6 108 47.2%
Twins 65-61 -1 111 102 101 -6 114 37.0%
Orioles 67-60 2 100 107 89 -7 84 8.9%
White Sox 63-65 4 100 102 102 -15 78 13.5%

The playoff picture is murkier in the Junior Circuit than in the Senior Circuit. The Guardians hold the AL Central but will face challenges from the Twins and White Sox down the stretch. The second-place team in that division is technically in contention in the AL Wild Card race along with the Orioles, who refuse to back down. It’s likely that just one of those four teams will finish with a playoff berth, and odds are it will be whoever claims the Central.

The Guardians had the best record in the AL during the second half until they ran into the Mariners over the weekend, but even with that bump, they’re in the driver’s seat for that sixth AL playoff berth. The Twins finally showed a bit of life, sweeping the Giants over the weekend and breaking a six-game losing streak. Minnesota has the tougher schedule over the next few weeks, though these two teams are looking forward to eight games against each other in an 11-day stretch in mid-September. The White Sox fell below .500 after getting swept by the Diamondbacks over the weekend and have lost nine of their last 11 games. They can’t escape the injury bug that’s haunted them the past two seasons; Yasmani Grandal, Yoán Moncada, and Michael Kopech all hit the IL over the last week.

The Orioles hold the second-best record in the AL since the All-Star break and continue to defy all the odds by sticking around in the Wild Card race, winning two of three from the Astros in Houston over the weekend. After struggling over the first few weeks of his major league career, Adley Rutschman has been carrying the O’s on his back as they make a Cinderella run towards the postseason.

In the National League, things are a little more clear. The Brewers are the only team without a playoff spot and that is in a position to push into the postseason picture in September. And while the Cardinals are running away with the division, the struggles of San Diego have opened up a pathway to October if Milwaukee can overtake the Padres.

Tier 5 – Spoiler Alert
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Diamondbacks 59-67 -2 93 101 106 22 95 0.0%
Red Sox 62-66 3 102 105 108 -4 87 2.7%
Giants 61-65 -2 101 92 108 -24 83 0.8%
Angels 55-73 -4 90 92 107 8 92 0.0%
Rangers 58-69 -6 103 110 101 -8 85 0.0%

Technically, the Red Sox have an extremely long shot chance of taking the final Wild Card spot in the AL. But with Baltimore looking like it’s going to stick around in the playoff hunt for good, it’s Boston that will likely end up playing spoiler in the crowded and competitive AL postseason races. Eight of the team’s remaining 11 series will have some sort of playoff implications, beginning with a three-game set in Minnesota this week.

The return of Mike Trout off the IL makes the Angels a little more dangerous down the stretch, something the Blue Jays learned the hard way over the weekend. Los Angeles has just six series with playoff implications on the schedule, but it will have its chance to play spoiler sooner rather than later, with upcoming series against the Yankees, Astros (twice), Guardians, Mariners, and Twins over the next four weeks.

A couple of days after firing manager Chris Woodward, the Rangers relieved Jon Daniels of his duties as president of baseball operations. A member of the organization for 20 years and the top decision-maker for 17, Daniels made an indelible mark on the franchise’s direction for nearly two decades. But with big expectations placed on the team last winter, another losing season was a bridge too far, and Texas will now hand the reins off to Chris Young to take the next step forward.

Tier 6 – Hope Deferred
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Marlins 55-72 0 88 97 103 -2 71 0.0%
Rockies 55-74 2 89 111 101 -1 57 0.0%
Cubs 55-73 0 97 110 107 -27 46 0.0%
Tigers 50-78 1 79 115 90 7 64 0.0%
Royals 52-77 3 93 116 120 4 51 0.0%
Reds 50-76 -2 87 113 107 -16 26 0.0%
Athletics 48-81 1 83 116 109 0 34 0.0%
Nationals 43-85 0 91 136 104 -39 30 0.0%
Pirates 48-79 5 81 115 109 -20 23 0.0%

With a draft lottery instituted in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, there’s a little less incentive for teams to tank for the top draft spot. The bottom three squads each have the same odds of pulling the No. 1 pick, which means the real battle for draft position goes through either Pittsburgh or Oakland. The Pirates just snapped a seven-game losing streak and face a much tougher remaining schedule than Detroit, Cincinnati, or Kansas City. Those three teams will vie for the second best odds of securing a top-six pick with just a game and a half separating them.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ
1 Dodgers 88-38 -4 123 79 80 2 180 100.0% 0
2 Astros 82-47 0 113 85 81 18 181 100.0% 0
3 Yankees 78-50 -6 116 88 82 12 179 100.0% 0
4 Mets 82-47 4 112 89 94 5 157 100.0% 0
5 Cardinals 74-54 -2 116 98 98 20 161 97.7% 1
6 Braves 79-50 0 109 88 85 3 153 100.0% -1
7 Mariners 70-58 1 105 102 92 6 131 94.0% 3
8 Blue Jays 68-58 0 115 96 100 6 141 91.3% -1
9 Rays 70-57 0 104 90 102 3 124 85.1% 4
10 Phillies 72-56 0 104 87 94 -23 121 89.1% -1
11 Padres 70-59 1 101 96 93 14 127 65.2% -3
12 Guardians 67-59 0 98 101 87 15 116 67.6% 0
13 Brewers 67-59 1 104 97 98 -6 108 47.2% -2
14 Twins 65-61 -1 111 102 101 -6 114 37.0% 0
15 Orioles 67-60 2 100 107 89 -7 84 8.9% 1
16 Diamondbacks 59-67 -2 93 101 106 22 95 0.0% 2
17 Red Sox 62-66 3 102 105 108 -4 87 2.7% 2
18 Giants 61-65 -2 101 92 108 -24 83 0.8% -3
19 Angels 55-73 -4 90 92 107 8 92 0.0% 1
20 Rangers 58-69 -6 103 110 101 -8 85 0.0% 1
21 White Sox 63-65 4 100 102 102 -15 78 13.5% -4
22 Marlins 55-72 0 88 97 103 -2 71 0.0% 0
23 Rockies 55-74 2 89 111 101 -1 57 0.0% 0
24 Cubs 55-73 0 97 110 107 -27 46 0.0% 0
25 Tigers 50-78 1 79 115 90 7 64 0.0% 1
26 Royals 52-77 3 93 116 120 4 51 0.0% -1
27 Reds 50-76 -2 87 113 107 -16 26 0.0% 0
28 Athletics 48-81 1 83 116 109 0 34 0.0% 0
29 Nationals 43-85 0 91 136 104 -39 30 0.0% 1
30 Pirates 48-79 5 81 115 109 -20 23 0.0% -1





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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The Ancient Mariner
1 year ago

“they’ll have a good shot of becoming the third team ever to finish with 114 wins or more.”

The 1906 Cubs are waving at you from the back of the room.

Long Suffering Tribe Fanmember
1 year ago

Jake (who presumably is not from State Farm) qualified his statement by saying “full 162 game season”. 1906 Cubs played 155 games.