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Yankees Advance to ALCS Behind Dominant Gerrit Cole Performance

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

In an postseason era marked by aggressive bullpen usage and pitching staff chaos, Gerrit Cole delivered a fantastic seven-inning performance on Thursday night to lead the Yankees past the Royals and into the ALCS. The final score of 3-1 makes the game appear closer than it actually felt; the Royals really only threatened once or twice all night thanks to an efficient Cole and a pair of scoreless relief appearances.

For the second time in the series, Cole racked up only four strikeouts in his outing, but this one was undeniably better than his shaky start in Game 1. On Thursday night, he gave up one run on six hits and didn’t walk anyone. The Royals’ approach was pretty clear from the get-go: They aggressively attacked his four-seam fastball and cutter early in the count, hoping to ambush him as they did in Game 1 — when their first five balls in play were all hit over 100 mph — before he could turn to his curveball or slider. This kept his pitch count down; he needed just 87 pitches to complete his seven innings. The BABIP gods must have turned away from the Royals because they didn’t earn their first hit until the third inning, and only once did they collect multiple hits in the same inning. As in the series opener, Kansas City made a lot of loud contact against Cole — 12 of the 22 balls in play off him registered an exit velocity of at least 95 mph — but this time half of those hard-hit balls were either on the ground (5) or popped up (1); in Game 1, all but one of his 11 hard-hit balls (out of 17 BIP) were line drives (5) or fly balls (5).

The Yankees batters were just as aggressive while facing Michael Wacha for the second time in this series. Gleyber Torres laced a double into left-center field on the game’s first pitch, and Juan Soto brought him home with an RBI single two pitches later.

Wacha settled down after inducing a double play from Aaron Judge and cruised through the next three innings. The Yankees struck again in the fifth when Torres chipped in with a two-out, run-scoring single that chased Wacha from the game. Right then, with runners on the corners, Soto due up, and his team down two runs, Royals manager Matt Quatraro turned to closer Lucas Erceg to get out of the fifth-inning jam. Soto got under a second-pitch changeup and skied it to center field for the final out of the frame.

Erceg came back out for the sixth to face Judge, who entered the plate appearance 1-for-12 in the series with four walks and five strikeouts; that lone hit was an 86.6-mph infield single in New York’s Game 2 loss. This time, though, Judge finally barreled one up, ripping a double into the left-center field gap. Catcher Austin Wells moved Judge over to third with a groundout to second, bringing up Giancarlo Stanton, whose career 160 wRC+ in the postseason ranks 12th among players with at least 100 playoff plate appearances. He scorched a 116.9-mph single up the middle to drive in the Yankees’ third and final run of the game.

Tensions rose a bit in the bottom of the sixth after the Yankees turned a 3-6 double play and Maikel Garcia took issue with the tag from Anthony Volpe at second.

After the play, Garcia started jawing with Jazz Chisholm Jr., causing both benches to clear and their bullpens to empty. No punches were thrown; they mostly just milled around second base for a few minutes. After the game, Chisholm said that he felt like Garica slid into second too hard and was sticking up for Volpe.

“I just felt like he tried to go and injure Volpe because he was being a sore loser. He was talking a lot on Instagram and Twitter and stuff. I do the same thing, but I’m not gonna go and try and injure somebody if they’re winning a game, and I didn’t like that. So I told him we don’t do that on this side, and I’m always gonna stick up for my guys.”

Chisholm became a lightning rod during this series. First, he scored the go-ahead run in Game 1 after a controversial safe call on his successful steal of second base. Then, following the Yankees’ Game 2 loss, he said the Royals “just got lucky.” That earned him a cold reception in Kansas City on Wednesday for Game 3, and the boos continued in Game 4. I’m sure this incident won’t help his reputation with the Kansas City faithful.

After all the hubbub died down, the Royals finally got on the board with a couple of two-out hits. Bobby Witt Jr. drove a single to right, and then scored from first on a long double off the bat of Vinnie Pasquantino.

The Royals gave the Yankees one final scare in the seventh; with two outs and a runner on first, Kyle Isbel launched a 370-foot fly ball to deep right field that fell just shy of leaving the yard. The batted ball had an expected batting average of .510 and would have been a game-tying home run in 24 ballparks, including Yankee Stadium, but Kauffman Stadium wasn’t one of them. Soto made the catch up against the wall. Inning over.

Turns out, so was Cole’s night. He finished with just six total swings and misses, five off his four-seamer and one with his curveball. More than half of the pitches he threw were four-seamers, but he didn’t really have great command of the pitch; just 52% of his four-seamers were in the strike zone, and most of his misses with it were high. It didn’t really matter much because the Royals weren’t willing to be patient and the rest of Cole’s repertoire was more than effective.

An interesting note about Cole’s pitch mix in Game 4: It was the first time in his major league career, spanning 336 starts in both the regular season and the playoffs, that he did not throw a slider. His usage of that breaking ball dipped a bit this year, falling from a little over 20% last year to just 14.6% this season, but it’s still pretty surprising to see him completely turn away from one of his best swing-and-miss offerings in a huge playoff game.

After Cole exited the game, Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver shut down the Royals in the eighth and ninth innings. Weaver earned his third save of the series, and the Yankees relief corps finished the ALDS without allowing an earned run across 15 2/3 innings.

For the Royals, this series ends their incredible turnaround season. It’s a bummer for them, though they head into the offseason with some hope that their winning ways might continue. They improved by 30 wins this year, they have an MVP candidate signed long term to build around, and their youngsters now have some postseason experience under their belts.

But this series also exposed some of the cracks they’ll need to address in the offseason. Witt Jr. collected just two hits in the series, preventing him from making much of an impact on the proceedings, while Pasquantino’s RBI double on Thursday was his first and only hit of the series. That’s not to put the blame on them; during a short series, sometimes your best players go cold. Sure, the Royals did get a bit of production from other members of their lineup earlier in the series, and Tommy Pham collected three hits in Game 4, but this is an offense that had the 40-year-old Yuli Gurriel — who has an 82 wRC+ over the last three seasons — batting fifth. The Royals simply didn’t have enough offensive firepower to compete with New York.

With the win, the Yankees advance to the ALCS for the second time in the last three years and the fourth time in the last eight. But despite their run of excellence for the better part of a decade, they have not reached the World Series since they won it all in 2009. To get there, they’ll have to beat the winner of the Guardians-Tigers series, which is set for a win-or-go-home Game 5 on Saturday night. The Yankees are the best remaining American League team; we’ll see whether that’s enough for them to win the pennant.


American League Division Series Preview: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Ken Blaze and Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

After dispatching the Houston Astros in a two-game Wild Card sweep, the Detroit Tigers’ magical season — their playoff odds sat at just 0.2% on August 11 — continues with a matchup against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS. For its part, Cleveland emerged as the winner of the surprisingly tough AL Central, the team’s second division title in the last three years. The Guardians flirted with the best record in the American League for most of the season, but a slow July and August meant that they finished a game and half behind the Yankees for the top seed; they ultimately outperformed their BaseRuns record by 11 games, by far the widest differential in baseball this year, on the back of clutch hitting and a shutdown bullpen.

These two division rivals are well acquainted with each other — Cleveland eked out the regular season series 7-6 — but this will be the first time these storied franchises have met in the postseason. Both teams are extremely young and neither had especially lofty expectations entering the season, but here they are, battling for a spot in the ALCS.

ALDS Preview: Tigers vs. Guardians
Overview Tigers Guardians Edge
Batting (wRC+) 95 (11th in AL) 100 (9th in AL) Guardians
Fielding (FRV) 29 (5th) 31 (4th) Guardians
Starting Pitching (FIP-) 88 (1st) 112 (13th) Tigers
Bullpen (FIP-) 95 (4th) 81 (1st) Guardians

As was true in the Wild Card round, one of the primary questions for the Tigers is how they will deploy their pitching. They got a brilliant start from Tarik Skubal in Game 1 in Houston, then bullpenned their way through Game 2 with the help of seven different pitchers. Now the challenge is figuring out how to take the unorthodox approach that got them through the end of the regular season and past the Astros, and adapt it for the Division Series. Fortunately, the postseason schedule means that Skubal should get two opportunities to pitch this series if it goes all the way to five games, but what they do for the other three games is anyone’s guess.

Both Reese Olson and Casey Mize were on the Wild Card roster, and Detroit will probably bring Keider Montero back for the Division Series. Still, Olson hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning in any of his three regular season starts since returning from a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. Mize, meanwhile, was an effective starter for the Tigers for most of the first half of the season, but missed two months with a hamstring injury and was used as a piggyback option in two of Olson’s starts in late September. The ZiPS game-by-game odds assume that Olson will “start” Game 1, with Montero going in Game 3 and a bullpen game for Game 4:

ZiPS Game-by-Game Odds
Team Win in 3 Win in 4 Win in 5 Total
Tigers 8.5% 15.1% 18.9% 42.5%
Guardians 17.0% 22.5% 18.0% 57.5%
Game Tigers Starter Guardians Starter Tigers Win% Guardians Win%
Game 1 @ CLE Reese Olson Tanner Bibee 38.0% 62.0%
Game 2 @ CLE Tarik Skubal Matthew Boyd 51.3% 48.7%
Game 3 @ DET Keider Montero Alex Cobb 43.7% 56.3%
Game 4 @ DET Bullpen Game Tanner Bibee 45.7% 54.3%
Game 5 @ CLE Tarik Skubal Matthew Boyd 51.3% 48.7%

As you can see, if the Tigers are able to force a Game 5, the series is essentially a coin flip, with the odds slightly favoring Detroit thanks to Skubal. The trick will be to win Skubal’s starts and at least one of Games 1, 3, or 4. Of course, no matter who is listed as the official starter in the non-Skubal games, the Tigers will almost certainly use every available reliever to work through those games. In the Wild Card series, they used eight pitchers out of their bullpen between the two games, with Jason Foley and Jackson Jobe the only ones to allow any runs. Will Vest and Beau Brieske were the standouts, pitching in both games and each earning a save.

The Guardians won’t have to scramble quite as hard to find starters, but the rotation certainly isn’t the main strength of Cleveland’s roster. After Shane Bieber was sidelined by Tommy John surgery in April, Tanner Bibee became the de facto ace of the staff, turning in a solid effort (3.47 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.3 WAR) in his second big league season. He improved his strikeout rate by more than two percentage points, lowered his walk rate by 1.5 points, and was a reliable workhorse the entire season. His slider and changeup are both legitimate bat-missing weapons, and his fastball is just good enough to support those secondary pitches.

After Bibee in Game 1, things become a little less clear. Matthew Boyd will certainly make at least one start during the series, and potentially two if Cleveland opts to use him in Game 2 (which would line him up to start a potential Game 5). Boyd returned from Tommy John surgery in August and made eight very impressive starts down the stretch. His fastball velocity is sitting right around where it was at his peak with the Tigers, and his secondary offerings are generating plenty of swings and misses.

For Game 3, the Guardians have a number of options to turn to. The game-by-game odds above assume Alex Cobb will be activated off the IL for this series and make the start, but he’s only made three starts all year and just one in September after dealing with blisters on his throwing hand. Gavin Williams has electric stuff to go along with his prospect pedigree, but he’s struggled with inconsistency, particularly with runners on base, leading to a 4.86 ERA that’s more than a run higher than his 3.67 FIP. There’s also the veteran Ben Lively, whose 3.81 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 29 starts gave Cleveland’s rotation some stability after Bieber’s injury, but he’s not exactly the kind of starter you’d want pitching in a big postseason game. However they lineup their rotation, it’ll be a lot more predictable than the chaos Detroit is trying to harness.

Of course, the Guardians’ true strength lies in their bullpen. Led by Emmanuel Clase, who just had one of the best reliever seasons ever, Cleveland also has a deep stable of setup men who form a bridge from the middle innings to the ninth:

Guardians Bullpen
Player IP K% BB% ERA FIP WPA pLI
Emmanuel Clase 74.1 24.4% 3.7% 0.61 2.22 6.40 1.78
Cade Smith 75.1 35.6% 5.9% 1.91 1.40 3.04 1.16
Hunter Gaddis 74.2 23.7% 5.0% 1.57 2.82 2.44 1.42
Tim Herrin 65.2 26.5% 9.7% 1.92 2.86 1.67 0.95

Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin are as good a setup trio as there is in baseball, and Cleveland’s relief corps as a whole had the sixth-best league- and park-adjusted ERA among the 750 team seasons since 2000. The same expanded schedule that benefits the Tigers’ heavy bullpen usage will also allow manager Stephen Vogt to deploy his ‘pen aggressively should the Guardians take an early lead.

The x-factor on the Guards’ pitching staff is Joey Cantillo, their 13th-ranked prospect. He made his major league debut in late July and has shown some real promise with his changeup and slider, especially across four September starts that saw him pitch to an impressive 2.25 ERA and 1.17 FIP with 29 strikeouts in 20 innings. It’s possible they’ll use him as their Game 3 starter, but it’s more likely that they’ll deploy him as another multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen.

Not only do the Guardians have the more impressive bullpen, they also employ the series’ biggest superstar in José Ramírez. He was a double and a home run away from posting a 40 double, 40 home run, 40 stolen base season, and will certainly receive down-ballot MVP consideration behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. Despite his fantastic track record in the regular season since his breakout 2016, Ramírez has had a rough go of things in the postseason. In 134 plate appearances across 32 playoff games, he’s slashed just .242/.291/.347 (a 70 wRC+) with a pair of home runs. If Cleveland wants to make a deep run in the playoffs, Ramírez will need to be firing on all cylinders.

Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor are the other key members of the Guardians lineup, with the former posting an excellent 131 wRC+ from the leadoff spot while the latter blasted 31 home runs and collected 108 RBIs from the cleanup spot. Both Kwan and Naylor hit left-handed, which puts them at a disadvantage against Skubal. That’s one reason why Cleveland acquired Lane Thomas from the Nationals at the trade deadline — to balance out the lineup with a strong right-handed batter. Thomas got off to a slow start with his new team in August, but produced a 137 wRC+ during the final month of the season.

Cleveland will also hope to see more consistent production out of Jhonkensy Noel. He slumped pretty badly in September, but he was a key member of the lineup during his hot August. His huge raw power gives Cleveland something it has largely lacked the last few years, and one swing from “Big Christmas” could change an entire game.

Because the Tigers will be looking to exploit as many matchups as they can with their relievers, Cleveland’s bench will bear a lot of weight this series:

Guardians Bench and Platoons
Player Position Bats Career wOBA vR Career wOBA vL
David Fry C/1B/OF R 0.301 0.396
Angel Martínez 3B/OF S 0.267 0.323
Daniel Schneemann 3B/SS/OF L 0.269 0.428
Will Brennan OF L 0.315 0.198
Jhonkensy Noel 1B/OF R 0.299 0.399
Kyle Manzardo 1B L 0.311 0.248

David Fry, Cleveland’s surprise All-Star, should get starts against the left-handed Skubal, with Noel in the outfield. Beyond those two straight platoons, Vogt will need to pick and choose the right moments to deploy his pinch-hitters to counter A.J. Hinch’s bullpen machinations. The switch-hitting Angel Martínez, in particular, could be the most valuable piece off Cleveland’s bench.

In my preview of the Tigers-Astros Wild Card series, I wrote that Detroit’s offense would need to rely on four key contributors: Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson. That quartet collected just four combined hits against Houston, though Meadows’ home run in Game 2 broke the scoreless tie and Carpenter’s single in the eighth started the game-winning rally. Behind those four, the rest of the Tigers lineup collected 13 hits against the Astros, with Torkelson and Colt Keith the only batters to go hitless in the series. Timely hitting was the differentiator; all three runs in Game 1, as well as Andy Ibáñez’s go-ahead, three-run double in Game 2, came with two outs in their respective innings. The Tigers also left a combined 19 runners on base during the series, squandering a number of opportunities to tack a few more crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

The blueprint for both the Tigers and Guardians should look pretty similar: scratch across a few runs early in the game and hand things off to a shut-down bullpen to close things out. With both teams working from the same plan, the series will likely come down to which club can find a timely hit to put themselves ahead. The moves both managers make will have a huge influence on the course of the series. Hinch’s bullpen management has been pretty flawless so far; Vogt will have his own bullpen to manage, along with a bench that should see heavy usage. For fans of nuanced baseball strategy, this series should prove to be a fascinating matchup.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: 2024 Playoff Edition

After a thrilling conclusion to the regular season on Monday, the postseason is finally upon us. There are a couple of favorites in the National League in the Dodgers and Phillies, but the American League field looks pretty wide open, and both of the teams that played in last year’s World Series are home on the couch. Anything can happen in the playoffs, and underdogs can topple giants in this wild, month-long tournament. Here’s a look at the 12-team field and how they stack up against each other.

This season, we revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Read the rest of this entry »


American League Wild Card Preview: Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Ken Blaze and Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Now that Detroit’s magical run through the end of the regular season is complete, snapping a decade-long postseason drought, the Tigers have been rewarded with a first-round matchup against the formidable Astros. Not only will this be the first postseason meeting between these two franchises, it’ll be an October reunion of sorts between Detroit manager A.J. Hinch and the ballclub he led to two World Series appearances and one championship, before he was fired in the aftermath of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Houston has been an October staple since 2015 and will be attempting to reach its eighth straight ALCS.

This isn’t a classic David and Goliath story, however. These two teams have been the best in the American League since the beginning of July, though the Tigers aren’t exactly structured like a traditional juggernaut, and the Astros aren’t as strong as they have been in recent seasons. Houston has plenty of postseason experience up and down its roster, but Detroit is young and essentially playing with house money after its surprising playoff berth.

ALWC Preview: Tigers vs. Astros
Overview Tigers Astros Edge
Batting (wRC+) 95 (11th in AL) 111 (3rd in AL) Astros
Fielding (FRV) 28 (5th) -2 (10th) Tigers
Starting Pitching (FIP-) 88 (1st) 98 (6th) Tigers
Bullpen (FIP-) 95 (5th) 101 (10th) Tigers

The Tigers’ surge to the playoffs was almost entirely driven by their pitching staff. Since July 1, they’ve had the second-best run prevention unit in the majors, allowing just 3.58 runs per game. This is despite the fact that they traded away Jack Flaherty, their second-best starter over the first four months of the season, at the deadline, when they were 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with 2.8% playoff odds. Over the two months since then, Detroit essentially has turned to a two-man rotation, with the other three slots being covered by a rotating cast of openers and bulk relievers. It’s been unorthodox to say the least, but you can’t argue with the results.

Of course, it helps that the Tigers have the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young award leading their pitching staff. Tarik Skubal has ascended into the stratosphere this year, winning the pitching Triple Crown and leading all American League pitchers in WAR. The Tigers will hand the ball to Skubal in Game 1, which might be the only traditional start the Astros see in this series.

The pitching plan for Games 2 and 3 is a complete mystery, one that Hinch seems to be relishing. “I’m going to try to keep everybody guessing just as much as I have with you guys for the last two months,” Hinch told reporters over the weekend. Keider Montero was the other traditional starter the Tigers leaned on during the past two months, but he doesn’t fit the profile of a big-game starter. It’s possible they’ll turn to Reese Olson in one of these games, but he hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning in any of his three starts since returning from a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. That means it could come down to the same opener-bulk strategy that’s been so successful over the last few months, with unsung heroes Brant Hurter or Ty Madden getting an opportunity to make an impact on the biggest stage.

There’s also the question of how the Tigers are going to deploy Jackson Jobe, their top pitching prospect. They called him up during the final week of the regular season, and he made two appearances out of the bullpen, including a three-inning outing on Saturday. It’s unclear if they trust him enough to hand him an actual start during this series, but he should see some action at some point, even if it’s as a bulk reliever.

And then there’s the rest of the Detroit bullpen. Beyond the team’s gaggle of long relievers, there’s a ton of depth to cover the later innings. That’s a huge reason why the Tigers were so successful down the stretch. And it’s not like their bullpen is stacked with big names; instead, it’s guys like Jason Foley (3.15 ERA), Tyler Holton (2.19), Beau Brieske (3.59), and Will Vest (2.82) getting deployed interchangeably in high-leverage situations.

Offensively, the Tigers rely heavily on just a handful of key contributors and have had a couple of guys get hot over the last two months to help fuel their postseason run.

Tigers Standouts Since August 1
Player Position G PA BB% K% ISO wRC+
Kerry Carpenter DH 37 133 8.3% 27.8% .319 167
Parker Meadows CF 47 201 6.5% 20.9% .204 137
Riley Greene LF 36 157 8.3% 29.9% .206 124
Spencer Torkelson 1B 38 151 11.3% 32.5% .195 125

Since returning from the injured list in early August, Parker Meadows has been one of the best outfielders in baseball. He’s slashed .291/.333/.500 over the last two months and played great defense in center, helping him accumulate 2.1 WAR during that timeframe, the 18th best mark in all of baseball. Both Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene have been solid contributors throughout the season when they’ve been healthy, and both were activated off the IL in August to help Detroit’s playoff push. And Spencer Torkelson has finished the season strong after getting sent down to the minors in June. Since he was recalled in mid-August, Torkelson is batting .248/.338/.444 with six home runs and a 125 wRC+.

For the Astros, the biggest lingering question is the availability of Yordan Alvarez. He injured his knee sliding into second base on September 22 and has been sidelined since then. He’s expected to take some batting practice on Monday, which could be a good sign for his recovery, but his knees have given him trouble for much of his career, and I’d expect the Astros to be cautious with him.

Even without the big man anchoring their lineup, Houston has plenty of firepower to deploy, all coming from the usual suspects. Kyle Tucker missed a couple of months of the season due to a fractured shin, but he was in the middle of a career year before that injury and picked up right where he left off when he returned at the beginning of September. Jose Altuve is on the downswing of his career, but he’s still a potent table-setter atop the lineup, and Alex Bregman has rebounded nicely from a slow start to the season. Yainer Diaz has been fantastic in his first full season as Houston’s starting catcher, so much so that even on some of the days that he didn’t catch, the Astros used him at first base to keep his bat in the lineup regularly.

Unlike the Tigers, the Astros boast a traditional, playoff-tested rotation that they’ll need to lean into during this short series. Don’t mind their full-season stats listed in the table up top; since June 1, Houston starters have had the second-best ERA in the majors (3.31) and the fifth-best FIP (3.73). Framber Valdez will take the ball in Game 1; he had a 1.96 ERA across his 12 starts (78 innings) during the second half of the season. Next up will be Yusei Kikuchi Houston’s big trade deadline acquisition. He’s been absolutely phenomenal since switching teams thanks to some pitch mix adjustments and a honed attack plan for his slider. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced since joining the Astros while keeping his walk rate under control.

If the series goes to Game 3, Hunter Brown should get the call, something no one could have expected after he started off the year with a 9.78 ERA through his first six starts of the season. After adding a sinker to his repertoire in May, he lowered his ERA to 3.49 by the end of the year. Perhaps surprisingly, Justin Verlander isn’t an option to make a start during this series, though he could be called on in the Division Series should the Astros advance.

Houston’s bullpen has nearly as many high-quality options as Detroit’s does, but the top Astros relievers are far more battle tested. Josh Hader was the big offseason signing, and he’s been solid, if a little shaky, as the primary closer; a bout of homeritis drove his FIP higher than it’s ever been in a full season (excluding 2020). The former closer Ryan Pressly and flame-throwing Bryan Abreu make a formidable setup duo, and Héctor Neris, claimed off the garbage heap in August, gives Houston four high-leverage arms with plenty of playoff experience.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 16–22

The final week of the regular season is upon us and most of the division races are pretty much decided, if not officially wrapped up. Thankfully, the two Wild Card races should provide plenty of drama over the next seven days.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Padres 90-66 1587 1499 100.0% 1627 0
2 Dodgers 93-63 1572 1495 100.0% 1615 1
3 Mets 87-69 1587 1501 76.4% 1605 7
4 Astros 85-71 1554 1497 99.8% 1601 1
5 Yankees 92-64 1554 1503 100.0% 1601 2
6 Diamondbacks 87-69 1573 1501 82.7% 1598 -2
7 Phillies 92-64 1549 1495 100.0% 1597 -5
8 Brewers 89-67 1540 1495 100.0% 1591 -2
9 Guardians 90-67 1523 1493 100.0% 1578 -1
10 Tigers 82-74 1558 1494 70.6% 1564 4
11 Orioles 86-70 1481 1498 99.9% 1545 0
12 Royals 82-74 1478 1497 68.2% 1513 -3
13 Braves 85-71 1529 1497 40.9% 1500 -1
14 Twins 81-75 1466 1489 54.1% 1475 -1
15 Rays 78-78 1523 1506 0.6% 1458 5
16 Cubs 80-76 1523 1497 0.0% 1457 -1
17 Cardinals 79-77 1519 1500 0.0% 1455 2
18 Mariners 80-76 1502 1496 6.6% 1450 -2
19 Giants 77-79 1499 1495 0.0% 1439 6
20 Reds 76-81 1499 1499 0.0% 1439 -2
21 Blue Jays 73-83 1481 1511 0.0% 1425 -4
22 Rangers 74-82 1479 1500 0.0% 1424 1
23 Red Sox 78-78 1477 1504 0.2% 1422 -1
24 Pirates 73-83 1468 1503 0.0% 1415 -3
25 Rockies 60-96 1464 1510 0.0% 1412 2
26 Athletics 67-89 1459 1500 0.0% 1408 0
27 Nationals 69-87 1444 1505 0.0% 1397 -3
28 Marlins 57-99 1421 1512 0.0% 1380 0
29 Angels 63-93 1408 1499 0.0% 1370 0
30 White Sox 36-120 1286 1507 0.0% 1277 0

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Padres 90-66 1587 1499 100.0% 1627
Dodgers 93-63 1572 1495 100.0% 1615

The Padres won five games last week to push three games ahead of the Diamondbacks and Mets for the first NL Wild Card spot and just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. San Diego and Los Angeles are set to face off three times at Dodger Stadium this week, beginning Tuesday. The Padres are the only second-place team with a greater than 1% chance to win the division. It won’t be easy, because even if the Friars take care of business against the Dodgers, they close out the regular season with a three-game set in Arizona over the weekend.

Shohei Ohtani just completed what could very well be the best week ever produced by a big leaguer; not only did he found the 50/50 club with an epic performance on Thursday, he added two more home runs and four more stolen bases over the weekend to bring his season totals to 53 homers and 55 steals. In total, he collected 16 hits, six home runs, 15 RBI, and seven stolen bases last week. After hosting San Diego for three games with their 11th division title in 12 years on the line, the Dodgers head to Coors Field this weekend for three games against the last-place Rockies.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Mets 87-69 1587 1501 76.4% 1605
Astros 85-71 1554 1497 99.8% 1601
Yankees 92-64 1554 1503 100.0% 1601
Diamondbacks 87-69 1573 1501 82.7% 1598
Phillies 92-64 1549 1495 100.0% 1597
Brewers 89-67 1540 1495 100.0% 1591

The Diamondbacks blew an 8-0 lead on Sunday afternoon to lose to the Brewers, denying them a chance to mop the four-game series in Milwaukee. That loss meant they ended the week tied with the Mets in the Wild Card standings, which ratchets up the stakes for this final week of the season. Eugenio Suárez continues to rake and Ketel Marte launched home runs in three consecutive games over the weekend, but the Snakes will need all hands on deck to maintain their playoff position.

While it wasn’t the smoothest ascent to the top of the AL West, all the Astros need to do to clinch the division is win one of their three home games against the Mariners this week. Fortunately, Houston may have “dodged a bullet” after Yordan Alvarez injured his knee on Sunday, though his status is unclear as of this writing.

The Yankees survived their six-week slump this summer and now need to win just one of their final six games to clinch the AL East. After a bit of a slowdown earlier this month, the bats of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto woke up a bit last week. This team will go as deep in October as those two will carry it.

After sweeping the Nationals and winning three of four from the Phillies, the Mets are completely in control of their playoff destiny. They travel to Atlanta this week looking to completely bury the Braves in the standings and secure their surprise spot in the postseason.

It doesn’t bode well that the Phillies faced two playoff teams last week — the Brewers and Mets — and came away with just two wins in seven games. With the division all but locked up, perhaps they were just taking it easy before the postseason begins. After their hot start to the season, their up-and-down second half hasn’t bred a ton of confidence in their ability to cruise through the early rounds. Still, Philadelphia is filled with veterans who have engineered deep playoff runs two years in a row; the Phillies should be fine.

The Brewers became the first team in the majors to clinch their division last week, so I suppose you could excuse the series loss to the Diamondbacks over the weekend. The dramatic come-from-behind victory on Sunday was a nice way to show that they still have a lot of fire within them. They’ll need it as they seek their first postseason series victory since 2018.

Tier 3 – The Guardians
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Guardians 90-67 1523 1493 100.0% 1578

The Guardians are in a weird spot: They’re not consistently good enough to fit in the second tier but they’re clearly above the fray of teams in the Wild Card race. Still, after their disappointing season last year with largely the same cast, they clinched the AL Central on Saturday, their fifth title in the last nine seasons.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 82-74 1558 1494 70.6% 1564
Orioles 86-70 1481 1498 99.9% 1545
Royals 82-74 1478 1497 68.2% 1513
Braves 85-71 1529 1497 40.9% 1500
Twins 81-75 1466 1489 54.1% 1475
Mariners 80-76 1502 1496 6.6% 1450

If the AL Wild Card race hadn’t been so dramatic over the past few weeks, we’d probably be paying more attention to the Orioles’ fall down the standings. As recently as September 10, they were just a half game back in the AL East; now, they are one loss or one Yankees win away from having to settle for a Wild Card berth. Baltimore’s pitching staff has had plenty of issues during the second half of the season — things got so bad in the bullpen, they opted to release Craig Kimbrel instead of hoping to fix him before the playoffs. In more positive news, the O’s just activated Jordan Westburg off the IL on Sunday, they’ll hope he can provide a spark as they crawl their way into the playoffs.

If you’re looking for drama this final week of the season, look no further than the AL Wild Card race. Against all odds, the Tigers have surged into a playoff berth and are currently tied in the standings with the Royals and a game ahead of the Twins. They did it by sweeping the Royals last week and then taking two of three from the Orioles in Baltimore. That’s a pretty stiff challenge and shows just how good Detroit has been during this late-season hot streak. With three-game series at home against the Rays and White Sox, the Tigers have the weakest schedule of the four teams fighting over the last two Wild Card spots.

The Royals have now had two separate seven-game losing streaks over the past month. Sure, there was a 7-2 stretch sandwiched between those skids, but Kansas City is on the verge of tripping right as it reaches the finish line. The Royals have three games against the Nationals in Washington, followed by three weekend games in Atlanta that should be crucial for both teams. Buckle up.

After losing both games of their Sunday doubleheader against the Red Sox, the Twins are out of a playoff position for the first time since April. They’re barely hanging on, and their only saving grace has been the simultaneous collapse of the Royals. Luckily for Minnesota, it holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City, Detroit, and Seattle; this could definitely come into play in such a tight Wild Card race. The Twins host the Marlins and Orioles this week.

Don’t count out the Mariners just yet either, though some agonizing mistakes last week really hindered any progress they could have made in the standings. Sunday’s loss was perhaps the most glaring; leading the Rangers 5-0 after 5 1/2 innings, Seattle gave up four runs in the sixth and another in the seventh before ultimately losing on Marcus Semien’s walk-off single in the ninth. It was just the fifth time all season that the Mariners lost a game in which they scored five or more runs. For as bad as things have been since mid-July, when they squandered a 10-game divisional lead in record time, the Mariners enter this week just two games out of the final Wild Card berth and five games back in the AL West standings. Seattle faces long odds to reach the playoffs, let alone to retake the division, but it’s not impossible. The Mariners head to Houston for three games against the Astros before ending the season at home against the A’s.

Over in the National League, the banged-up Braves are still alive in the Wild Card race. They are two games out of the final spot with six to play, including three at home against the Mets, one of the two teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. Atlanta needs to take two of three from New York to hold the season-series advantage that would settle a potential tie, and it already holds the tiebreaker over Arizona. Things aren’t great for the Braves, but if they start winning again this week, they should find their way in.

Tier 5 – Spoiler Alert
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Rays 78-78 1523 1506 0.6% 1458
Cubs 80-76 1523 1497 0.0% 1457
Cardinals 79-77 1519 1500 0.0% 1455
Giants 77-79 1499 1495 0.0% 1439
Reds 76-81 1499 1499 0.0% 1439

The Reds surprisingly fired manager David Bell on Sunday night, less than a year after signing him to a contract extension that runs through 2026. They “felt a change was needed to move the Major League team forward,” said GM Nick Krall. “We have not achieved the success we expected.” Maybe a new voice in the clubhouse is needed, but the reality is that injuries and Noelvi Marte’s suspension played major parts in the team’s underperformance. Even so, things aren’t too bleak in Cincinnati, where Elly De La Cruz has continued his ascent and should receive down ballot MVP votes this season. Of course, the real sticking point is the amount of investment the Reds will receive to improve the rest of their roster. That’s not something a new manager will be able to solve.

The Giants succeeded in playing spoilers last week, winning two of three against the Orioles and then sweeping the Royals over the weekend. San Francisco has one last shot to reprise its role this week with a three-game series in Arizona, beginning Monday night.

Tier 6 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Blue Jays 73-83 1481 1511 0.0% 1425
Rangers 74-82 1479 1500 0.0% 1424
Red Sox 78-78 1477 1504 0.2% 1422
Pirates 73-83 1468 1503 0.0% 1415
Rockies 60-96 1464 1510 0.0% 1412
Athletics 67-89 1459 1500 0.0% 1408
Nationals 69-87 1444 1505 0.0% 1397
Marlins 57-99 1421 1512 0.0% 1380
Angels 63-93 1408 1499 0.0% 1370

Of all the teams in this huge tier, Toronto seems like the club that’s most likely to bounce back with a good season next year. The Blue Jays opted to hang onto all of their big stars at the deadline, and they did manage to play a little better during the second half of the season. Still, the roster isn’t without holes, and they’ll need a healthy season from Bo Bichette to reach their full potential.

The Rockies were so close to winning a pair of series against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers last week. Back-to-back home runs from Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts secured the walk-off victory on Sunday and forced Colorado to settle for a single win in that weekend series. The Rockies have another crack at Los Angeles next weekend.

While James Wood has adapted to major league pitching pretty quickly, Dylan Crews has taken a little longer to make the adjustment to the big leagues. The Nationals aren’t on the verge of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle just yet, which means Crews has some time to acclimate. Unfortunately, All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams, the other young member of their core, was optioned to the minors over the weekend reportedly after breaking curfew for an all-nighter at a casino before a day game in Chicago. Not a great look for someone who is supposed to be leading the team into its next contention window.

Tier 7 – The Worst of the Worst
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
White Sox 36-120 1286 1507 0.0% 1277

With their 120th loss of the year on Sunday, the White Sox tied the 1962 Mets for the most losses in a season since the founding of the American League in 1901. Barring a miraculous turn of events, they will go down as the worst team in modern MLB history. But hey, look on the bright side: Even if they lose their final six games, they still won’t lose as many games as the 1899 Cleveland Spiders!


FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 9–15

With just two weeks left in the regular season, the two Wild Card races look like they’ll be the only source of drama down the stretch. Entering this week, the top team in the closest divisional race has an 87.8% chance to finish in first — that’s the most uncertain winner, according to our playoff odds.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 3–8

With three weeks left in the regular season, it looks like there’s just one true playoff chase remaining: the National League Wild Card race. That said, there’s the possibility that the American League Wild Card race could get a lot more interesting if the Twins keep faltering and any of the Tigers, Mariners, or Red Sox get hot. Still, at a time of year when fans are often obsessively scoreboard watching, the lack of tension is disappointing.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 26–September 1

As we enter the final month of the season, there are a handful of clubs on the edge of the playoff picture whose play of late has made a few of the postseason races fairly exciting as the 2024 campaign winds down.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 19–25

We’re very quickly approaching the final month of the season and no team has really pulled away from the pack. Still, the playoff races are pretty settled, with just a handful of teams remaining on the fringes. The division races should provide all the drama down the stretch.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 5–18

If it’s parity you’re looking for, consider this: 10 of the top 11 teams in these rankings are separated by just 4.5 games in the major league standings, and the odd team out has been the hottest ballclub in baseball over the last two weeks. While no team is currently on pace to win 100 games, the bunching in the standings should make for some very exciting playoff races down the stretch.

This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.

To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »