Author Archive: Jake Mailhot

Two of the most successful ballclubs of the modern era are set to battle each other in the National League Division Series, with a spot in the Championship Series on the line. Fresh off dispatching the Philadelphia Phillies in a dramatic three-game Wild Card Series — their first postseason series win since winning the World Series back in 2021 — the Atlanta Braves now have to face a juggernaut in the Los Angeles Dodgers. They had to go through Los Angeles in the NLCS to earn that championship five years ago, the second of their back-to-back meetings in the semi-finals. As for the Dodgers, this series is the beginning of their quest to win a third consecutive World Series, something that’s been done just four times in MLB history and never by a National League team.

The Braves won the season series between these two teams, claiming victories in five of their six meetings while holding Los Angeles to just 15 total runs across those games. Still, beating the regular season-Dodgers is one thing; the postseason-Dodgers are an entirely different beast. The injury issues that plagued them throughout the season are largely in the rear-view mirror and their roster is the strongest it’s been since Opening Day. It will be a tall task to try and topple one of the best teams in baseball in five games.

After being eliminated from the playoffs by the Phillies twice in the last four years — and missing the postseason entirely last season — the Braves finally managed to get revenge against their division rival. That said, it took three games to do it, which puts them at a bit of a disadvantage heading into the NLDS. Not only do they have just one day to recuperate and prepare for the next challenge, the Braves used Chris Sale to get the final four outs of yesterday’s Game 3. His start against the Phillies Tuesday would line him up to start Game 2 of the NLDS on normal rest, and Thursday was his normal bullpen day, but his relief appearance is not without potential consequences. Manager Walt Weiss told reporters today that Sale could start Game 2, but that the team would “err on the side of giving him (time to rest) if it’s even close.” Pushing him to Game 3 would be a significant blow to the Braves chances since it would only allow him to start once in the series. Read the rest of this entry »

Two playoff races came down to the final day of the season, but with the 12-team playoff field now settled, the postseason can begin. The American League side of the bracket looks particularly weak, while the National League side features a handful of the best and hottest teams in baseball. Remember, September success (or failure) doesn’t necessarily predict how things will go in October. Here’s a look at the 12 playoff teams and how they stack up against each other.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Since we’ve reached the postseason, I’ve removed the playoff odds weighting to our raw Elo calculations and presented the teams in the tiers below based on their odds of winning the World Series. If you’re curious about how your team finished in the standard regular season power rankings, the full table can be found at the bottom of this article. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the final week of the regular season. There are still two divisions in the American League up for grabs, a couple of long-shot playoff hopefuls looking to make a last-minute run, and playoff seeding to fight over. It should make for a dramatic end to a great season.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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It was a great week for the Brewers. They won their fourth straight NL Central title and sixth in the last nine years, and also set another franchise record for wins in a single season, one year after setting the previous record. They now have a chance to win 100 games for the first time in club history this week and still have the top seed in the NL to play for.

The Rays swept the Athletics and won their series against the Red Sox last week to put some distance between themselves and the Yankees in the AL East race. The gap in the division is now six games, and even though the two rivals play each other four times during the final week of the season, it would take a massive collapse from Tampa Bay to upset the current standings. Because the Rays also currently lead the season series with the Yankees, 6-3, all they need is to win one of the four games in New York to take the division title. With Shane McClanahan still recovering from his forearm injury — his availability for the playoffs is up in the air — Freddy Peralta has stepped up to lead the pitching staff over the last few weeks. Across his last five starts, he’s allowed just three runs in 28 2/3 innings. That’s the kind of production the Rays were hoping to get when they acquired him at the trade deadline.

The Dodgers are getting all their pieces in place for the postseason. Andy Pages and Roki Sasaki will be activated off the IL on Tuesday, and Shohei Ohtani should follow on Wednesday. There’s a lingering question about Blake Snell’s status after he injured his groin last week, but it sounds like he’ll be able to make a start during the final weekend of the season. And even though the majority of the year has been a slog for Kyle Tucker, his bat seems to have finally woken up at the right time; he collected nine hits and three home runs last week.

Having won 13 of their last 14 games, the Padres are peaking at exactly the right moment. They’ve surged five games ahead of the Diamondbacks and one ahead of the Phillies in the NL Wild Card standings, and are now tied with the Cubs for the top spot. San Diego’s final series of the season against Arizona still looms large, especially if the Friars stumble against the Dodgers in the series beforehand. You’re probably familiar with Fernando Tatis Jr.’s hot streak — he blasted four home runs last week to bring his total in September up to eight — but the biggest contributor to the Padres’ success recently has been Ty France. He had 12 hits and a home run last week and has posted a fantastic 168 wRC+ during the second half of the season.

After a couple of years away from the top, the Braves are NL East champions again — it’s their seventh division title in the last nine years. Atlanta’s dominance this year has been a welcome return to form. Even though his season has been a bit up and down, Ronald Acuña Jr. is looking like the superstar that won the MVP back in 2023 again. Last week, he smacked three home runs, including a go-ahead grand slam on Saturday, and is running a 191 wRC+ in September.

A little more than a week after being activated off the IL, Aaron Judge is back on the shelf, this time with a calf injury sustained on Wednesday. His availability for the playoffs is still up in the air, though he’s confident that he’ll be able to return sooner rather than later. Thankfully, Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be activated off the IL on Tuesday, and there’s some confidence that Trent Grisham will also be ready to return for the postseason. It helps that Ben Rice has bounced back from a rough August to post a 192 wRC+ in September. Still, Judge’s injury is a major blow to the Yankees’ hopes for a deep October run.

Even though the Red Sox lost both of their series last week, they managed to clinch a postseason berth on Sunday. It’s the cap to a remarkable turnaround after the team looked completely lost in mid-June. Boston can officially secure the second Wild Card spot with a couple of wins against the Guardians this week. Then the team can turn its attention to the Yankees and the rematch of last year’s Wild Card matchup between these two historic rivals.

Nothing is going to come easy for the Phillies over the next few weeks. The team placed Jesús Luzardo on the IL last week with a shoulder injury, but thankfully, it sounds like he’ll be ready to pitch in the playoffs. But before they count their chickens, they need to actually clinch a playoff spot. Philadelphia is four games up on the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race, but its upcoming opponents are no cake walk; the Phillies have the Brewers and Rays on the schedule to finish off the regular season. Facing two of the best teams in baseball is quite a test ahead of the postseason, and the Phillies haven’t exactly been playing well lately.

The biggest concern for the Cubs right now is the status of Alex Bregman. He was struck by a foul ball in the face while standing in the on-deck circle during Sunday’s game and was taken to the hospital for further evaluation. Alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bregman has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break. It would be a huge blow if the third baseman had to miss any significant amount of time at this point in the season. As for Crow-Armstrong, he’s two stolen bases away from joining the 40/40 club. He put a few finishing touches on his MVP case last week by bopping four more home runs, bringing his season total up to 45.

There was some upheaval in the two division races represented in this tier. Entering last week one game behind the White Sox in the AL Central standings, the Guardians took two of three games against the South Siders in a dramatic series, which included a walk-off on Tuesday and an improbable go-ahead homer on Wednesday. From there, although Chicago took advantage of playing — and winning — on Thursday while Cleveland was off to pull back into a tie atop the division, the Guardians just kept winning, sweeping the the Athletics over the weekend to bring their winning streak to five. José Ramírez finally broke out of his extended slump, tallying nine hits, a home run, and four stolen bases last week.

As for the White Sox, they won three of their four games against the the Tigers, but that one loss was enough to drop them to a game behind Cleveland in the Central. Still, the Sox have a three-game cushion for the final AL Wild Card spot, and they own the tiebreaker over the Guardians, meaning both first place and a potential first-round bye are still in their sights. Miguel Vargas is carrying most of the load for the lineup right now, hitting three home runs last week, but he needs some support if Chicago wants to make some noise in the postseason.

Over in the AL West, the Astros were swept by the Braves this past weekend, allowing the Rangers to jump into first place with a .500 record. Texas enters this week one game up, but crucially Houston holds the tiebreaker. If the Rangers can manage to hang on, it would be just their second postseason appearance in the last decade. The last time they made the playoffs, they won the World Series.

The Houston bullpen was responsible for the backbreaking losses on Saturday and Sunday, but the lack of offense has been a much bigger problem. Over the Astros’ last 10 games, they’ve scored more than four runs in a game just once. Yordan Alvarez looked fine last week (eight hits, including two home runs) after his ankle scare the previous weekend, and Jeremy Peña has been great too (10 hits, three homers), but the rest of the lineup has been struggling. During this 10-game stretch, Houston hitters not named Alvarez or Peña have combined for an ugly 55 wRC+.

The Diamondbacks managed to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a pair of wins over the Yankees on Saturday and Sunday. The first victory was a walk-off and the second was highlighted by a go-ahead grand slam from Nolan Arenado. Arizona needs to take care of business in Colorado and get some help from the Dodgers to ensure that the final series against the Padres has some stakes. There’s a chance the Phillies could crash out, opening another window for the Snakes, but the direct path is through San Diego.

The Blue Jays’ hopes for a last-minute surge into the playoffs were dashed last week when they lost both of their series to the Tigers and Rangers. They’re three games back and have the Astros to contend with if they want to try and sneak into that final Wild Card spot. It’s probably too little, too late, but the team is activating Trey Yesavage off the IL on Monday as one more reinforcement ahead of a final push.

The series between the Orioles and Mets last week in Queens turned out to be more interesting than you’d expect from two teams mired in hugely disappointing seasons. Pete Alonso made his first appearance as a member of the opposing team at Citi Field and wound up hitting his 300th career home run on Tuesday, a game-tying shot in the ninth inning. He received a huge ovation from the hometown crowd, which drew some irksome comments from a few Mets players and staff after the game. Baltimore wound up sweeping New York to cut its deficit in the AL Wild Card race to 2.5 games. Alas, a sweep by the Brewers over the weekend slammed the door shut on any playoff hopes the O’s still had.

Even though the Marlins’ season essentially ended with that 12-game losing streak back in July, they have made some significant progress in their quest to become a contending club. Otto Lopez looks like a star they can build the lineup around, while Eury Pérez and Max Meyer should be strong enough to anchor the pitching staff in the years ahead. There’s also a cohort of young prospects in the upper minors who should be making their debuts soon. The future in Miami is brighter than it’s been in a while.

This is the huge step forward the Reds were hoping to see from Elly De La Cruz. In September, he has blasted seven home runs, including in five straight games earlier this month, and is running a major league-best 236 wRC+. It’s too bad the rest of Cincinnati’s roster is a bit of a mess. Sal Stewart has been excellent as De La Cruz’s sidekick, but the starting rotation has struggled mightily, and the big injury to Hunter Greene has thrown the ceiling of that group up in the air heading into next year. Still, building around a superstar like De La Cruz should make things easier if the resources to improve the rest of the roster are made available.

The AL Central crown runs through Kansas City; both the White Sox and Guardians travel to face the Royals during the final week of the season. Unfortunately, the Royals haven’t been playing well enough recently to act as a spoiler. They ended August with a 13-3 stretch, but they’ve been the worst team in the AL in September, with just five wins in 18 games.

It took a lot longer than expected, but the Twins were finally eliminated from the playoff race last week. It was a drama-filled week, too. They won a wild extra-inning walk-off affair against the Yankees on Wednesday and then were walked-off twice against the Angels between two shutout victories over the weekend. Even though they all made their big league debuts over the last few weeks, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Emmanuel Rodriguez never all appeared in a game together. That trio represents the future of the organization, so it’s a little disappointing that that future couldn’t be realized in a small way this year.

The Padres’ recent hot streak has put some daylight between them and the Diamondbacks for the last open playoff spot in the National League. If that gap remains, playoff seeding is all that will be left to figure out in the Senior Circuit. Thankfully, we still have the potential for upheaval in the American League, where all three divisions are up for grabs and the Wild Card race is still unsettled.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Brewers put the NL Central race to bed with a big sweep of the Cubs last week. The division isn’t officially clinched, but Milwaukee’s magic number is down to two. The Brewers became the first National League team to secure a spot in the playoffs when they demolished the Reds on Friday night, 20-0, a score that is shockingly only their second-largest shutout victory of the season. Jackson Chourio was an absolute menace. In addition hitting to the go-ahead, two-run single on Monday and the game-tying two-run home run on Tuesday — both coming in the ninth inning — Chourio collected 11 other hits, including another home run against Chicago on Wednesday.

Although the Rays clinched a playoff berth on Friday night, the battle for the AL East crown isn’t over yet. Tampa Bay and New York are separated by four games right now with a huge four-game series between the two rivals on the schedule next week. The Rays just wrapped up a sweep of the Astros over the weekend and have a series against the Red Sox this coming weekend leading into that decisive series in New York. All three of those teams are potential postseason opponents, making these last few weeks of the regular season a test of Tampa Bay’s mettle against some of the best the AL has to offer.

As for the Yankees, they managed to keep pace with the Rays by sweeping the Rockies and winning the Subway Series against the Mets over the weekend. Aaron Judge’s return hasn’t exactly been a spark for the lineup; he tallied just three hits in five games and struck out in half of his plate appearances last week. Instead, it was Cody Bellinger leading the charge with eight hits and three home runs. The injury issues haven’t abated either; Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit the IL on Thursday with a thumb sprain, though it doesn’t seem serious enough to jeopardize his availability in the playoffs.

The Red Sox stumbled a bit last week, losing three straight to the Angels and Royals. They got back on track with a pair of wins on Saturday and Sunday, but the losses probably cost the team a shot at overtaking the Yankees for the top spot in the Wild Card standings. Boston now sits 3.5 games behind New York with two weeks left to play. That means we’re likely to see another AL Wild Card series in Yankee Stadium between these two historic rivals.

Last week, the Dodgers finally bit the bullet and placed Shohei Ohtani on the IL to ensure that he’s fully healthy for the postseason. Despite their superstar’s injuries, they had been playing well until a pair of losses to the Marlins over the weekend snapped an eight-game winning streak. In Ohtani’s absence, the run scoring has been led by Teoscar Hernández and Mookie Betts; the two veterans have combined for 31 hits, eight home runs, and 27 RBI since the calendar flipped to September.

The Braves probably put the NL East out of reach with a series win over the Phillies this past weekend. It started with a dramatic extra-innings, walk-off victory on Friday and culminated in a 12-2 blowout on Saturday. After those two wins, Sunday’s loss didn’t sting so bad — Atlanta is five games up with two weeks left to play. With a patchwork rotation behind Chris Sale, owing to a myriad of injuries throughout the season, the Braves have to be glad they picked up Tyler Mahle at the trade deadline. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his seven starts with Atlanta and held the Phillies to just a single run in seven innings in that blowout win on Saturday.

The Phillies faltered last week, losing both of their series to the Astros and Braves. Their grip on a postseason berth is probably secure — they’re four games ahead of the Diamondbacks, the first team outside the playoff picture in the NL — but their place in the Wild Card pecking order is very much up in the air. They’re currently tied with the Cubs for that top spot, with the Padres just 1.5 games back. Where Philadelphia ends up could be critical because the team is currently sporting the worst road wOBA in baseball. The pitching staff has covered for that lack of punch on the road, but a Wild Card series away from Citizens Bank Park could make for a very short postseason run for the Phillies.

After being swept by the Brewers last week, the Cubs can also focus all their attention on their NL Wild Card seeding now. And with Ohtani on the IL for the rest of the regular season, Pete Crow-Armstrong has two weeks to solidify his case for NL MVP. He’s four stolen bases away from becoming the seventh member of the 40/40 club and a hair shy of becoming the ninth position player to post a double-digit WAR total in the last 50 years.

A seven-game winning streak has helped the Padres pull 2.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Their Playoff Odds now stand at 77.6%, though that three-game series against Arizona the final weekend of the season still looms large. San Diego’s superstars have finally shown up to play. Jackson Merrill registered 12 hits and three home runs last week while Fernando Tatis Jr. matched his teammate with a dozen hits of his own. Since the All-Star break, those two teammates have combined for 5.5 WAR. The only pair of teammates to out produce them in that span — with 7.0 WAR accumulated — has been Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman on the Cubs.

The Astros just can’t pull away in the AL West race. A sweep by the Rays over the weekend dropped Houston back to .500, just a game ahead of the Rangers. The biggest problem has been an ill-timed slump from Yordan Alvarez. No longer leading the AL in home runs or RBI, the slugger has posted a mere 103 wRC+ over the last three weeks. He missed two games this past weekend with an ankle injury that might explain some of the slow down. With the battle for the division going down to the wire, the Astros are hoping that the early return of Carlos Correa will help provide a spark for the offense. Originally thought to have been lost for the season when he underwent ankle surgery in May, he’s set to begin a brief rehab assignment this week.

The White Sox are running out of steam at the worst possible moment. A 1-5 week against the Pirates and Cardinals dropped them to just half a game ahead of the Guardians in the AL Central. Suddenly, Chicago’s playoff hopes look a lot less solid than they did just a few weeks ago. On the other side of the coin, the Guardians have been playing just well enough to maintain a grip on the final AL Wild Card spot while putting pressure on the White Sox during their slide. Incredibly, Cleveland has been doing this without any help from José Ramírez; he’s batting .111/.149/.111 in September and hasn’t collected a single barreled batted ball since coming off the IL in late July. These two rivals meet in a decisive three-game series to start this week. If the White Sox prevail, they’ll secure the all-important tiebreaker over the Guardians.

Canada’s long national nightmare is finally over: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit a home run at home in Rogers Centre on Sunday, part of a 4-for-5 day at the plate. The Blue Jays managed to keep pace with the Guardians in the AL Wild Card race with a series win over the Orioles this past weekend. And with the AL Central battle up in the air this week, Toronto might be the benefactor in the Wild Card race if the team can continue to rack up wins.

These two long-shot playoff hopefuls met in a series over the weekend with the Rangers emerging victorious and improving their chance at a late-season charge into the postseason. Texas couldn’t overcome the Mariners earlier in the week, but the series win over the weekend helped the team take advantage of the Astros’ stumbles. A weekend series against the Blue Jays, the team immediately ahead of the Rangers in the AL Wild Card standings, is the next hurdle to overcome.

As for the Diamondbacks, they activated Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, and Michael Soroka off the IL last week, a huge infusion of pitching talent to their roster. Those three pitchers aren’t the only veterans helping carry the team during this playoff chase; Nolan Arenado has four home runs across his last eight games. Corbin Carroll also returned to the lineup over the weekend — he had been slowed by a nagging back injury over the last few weeks — but was healthy enough to blast a home run in Friday’s game.

Depending on how these final two weeks go, the Pirates could finish the season with a record over .500 for the first time since 2018. There were higher hopes for them this year, especially after their hot start to the season and a mostly competitive summer. Still, it’s significant progress after a long period of rebuilding. The most surprising development? The team is fifth in baseball in run scoring. With a young and talented pitching staff continuing to grow and Konnor Griffin now established in the big leagues, the future is looking brighter than it has in a long time.

A late-season surge from the Tigers has them in position to create some chaos in the AL playoff picture. Riding a four-game winning streak, they face off against the Blue Jays and White Sox this week. It’s been a perplexing season for Detroit. The team is on track to fall short of its Pythagorean-projected win total by the largest margin of any Wild Card-era team. It’s a small consolation that Kevin McGonigle will likely win the AL Rookie of the Year award, but at least his phenomenal season gives the Tigers hope for the future.

The Mariners’ roller-coaster season hit another low against the Athletics last weekend, when the A’s took three of four in an absolutely critical series in Seattle. Then, this past weekend, the A’s won two backbreaking walk-off victories in Sacramento on Friday and Sunday, slamming the door on Seattle’s slim playoff hopes. In between those two losses, the Mariners set a franchise record with a 19-1 blowout win on Saturday. If only they could have distributed those runs a little more evenly across the three-game series.

The Giants have suffered through a miserable season this year, but at least fans could count on seeing some excitement from the big stars on the roster. Rafael Devers had been in the midst of a torrid hot streak — he smacked seven home runs and drove in 19 runs in September — but he was placed on the IL on Sunday and is expected to undergo season-ending surgery to address a core injury. If not for the injury, Devers had a shot at becoming the first Giant since Barry Bonds to hit 40 home runs in a season; instead, Devers finished the year with 37 homers. Adding to the disappointment, Logan Webb could be joining Devers on the shelf soon, as manager Tony Vitello told reporters Sunday that the team has discussed shutting Webb down for the remainder of the year. San Francisco’s ace has struggled mightily recently — he’s posted a 9.86 ERA over his last five starts — and since the team has already been eliminated from contention, there’s no reason to push him over the next two weeks.

Labor Day has come and gone, and with just three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff pictures have become a little more clear. There are still a couple of division races up for grabs and a handful of teams in both leagues vying for the final Wild Card spots.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning. Read the rest of this entry »

As the regular season enters its final month, the playoff picture in both leagues has been clarified somewhat. There are just two or three teams vying for the final NL Wild Card spot, while the AL Wild Card field has been whittled down to four or five. For the teams on the fringe of the playoff chase, it’s quickly becoming crunch time.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a wild week across baseball, with walk-offs, blowouts, and a playoff picture in the American League that’s still incredibly crowded. With one week left in August, there’s not much time left for those teams on the fringe of the AL Wild Card race to make a move.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

If you want to point to an example of parity in baseball, just look at the AL Wild Card standings. There are six teams within 2.5 games of the final Wild Card berth. Yes, all six are below .500, but having that many clubs competing for one playoff spot at this point in the season should make for some very exciting baseball down the stretch.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

Even as teams have settled into their new normal following all the activity surrounding the trade deadline, the standings haven’t become any clearer with two months of the regular season left to play. There are still wide open division races and crowded Wild Card chases. For the teams already looking forward to next year, the stretch run is an opportunity to evaluate their rosters, and maybe play a little spoiler against those vying for the postseason.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

The dust has barely settled from a wild day of wheeling and dealing, but the season continues to chug along. The dog days of summer are just ahead, the playoff pictures in both leagues are a little clearer after a few teams on the fence decided to sell, and the stretch run looks like it’ll have plenty of drama as teams race toward the playoffs.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Note: All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.

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The Red Sox might not have the best overall record in baseball, but they just swept the Dodgers over the weekend and have taken the top spot in these power rankings as a result. Boston has been the best team in baseball for about a month and a half now; the Sox are 31-8 record since the start of play on June 19. They also made one of the most surprising moves on Monday, acquiring Adley Rutschman to significantly improve their production from behind the plate. They gave up a serious haul for the three-time All-Star catcher, but the bold move signals that Boston believes this recent hot streak is more indicative of its true talent over the remainder of the regular season.

The Brewers didn’t land Tarik Skubal, instead opting to make a handful of moves around the margins of their roster. They added Dustin May, JoJo Romero, and Antonio Senzatela to provide a ton of necessary depth for the pitching staff. That trio should be solid enough, but none of them is the kind of impact addition that Skubal could have been. The Brewers currently have the best record in baseball, but even after they made the necessary moves to improve their roster for the stretch run, it still feels like a pretty disappointing trade deadline for them.

The Dodgers made their big move a few days before the trade deadline, acquiring Skubal from the Tigers on Saturday. This trade isn’t meant to shore up the roster ahead of a summer push in a tight playoff race; rather, it’s all about improving the team’s odds of winning a third World Series championship in a row. The Dodgers are in an odd place on the win curve, where a postseason berth is all but guaranteed but the randomness of the playoffs still looms. Nothing can fully eliminate that risk in October, but adding the two-time Cy Young winner to an already-stacked rotation goes a long way toward reducing the potential for an early-round upset. Alas, a sloppy series against the Red Sox this past weekend resulted in a sweep, and Los Angeles also lost the first game of a series against the Cubs on Monday. Skubal is slated to start on Tuesday, and he’ll be tasked with stopping this four-game slide.

The Braves had a pretty quiet trade deadline, choosing to add a few minor pieces in outfielder Lane Thomas, righty starter Tyler Mahle, and lefty reliever Brent Suter. Riding a five-game winning streak and a 12-5 record coming out of the All-Star break, Atlanta must mot have felt the need to act very aggressively. It’s a little surprising the team didn’t do more to improve the depth of the starting rotation, especially since Reynaldo López injured his knee last week, further depleting the group. The Braves have a bunch of young starters stashed in Triple-A they can cycle through if needed, and Spencer Schwellenbach is on track to return sometime before the end of the regular season, but their deadline inaction still feels like a missed opportunity.

The Rays added to a position of strength when they acquired right-handed starter Freddy Peralta from the Mets over the weekend. Their pitching staff has been solid all season long, but their position in the standings has forced them to think about what a deep postseason run might look like. All-Star righty Drew Rasmussen has been fantastic, and Shane McClanahan has been wonderful, though the lefty was placed on the IL last week with a minor back strain. Tampa Bay also has to be thinking about McClanahan’s workload after he missed all of the past two years due to injury. Peralta might not be the ace he was in Milwaukee, but he’s a veteran starter who should help the Rays make some noise in October. They also added Liam Hicks to solidify their production behind the plate and lengthen the lineup.

The Cubs did what they had to do at the trade deadline: add pitching. They acquired right-handed starter Kevin Gausman from the Blue Jays on Sunday, and then traded with the Mets for righty starter Clay Holmes, with the Marlins for lefty starter Braxton Garrett, and with the Angels for righty reliever Ryan Zeferjahn on Monday. While all those additions might not be enough to help Chicago chase down the Brewers in the NL Central, they do give the team a much stronger foundation for a deep postseason run.

With injuries decimating their lineup, the Yankees were focused on bulking up the offense at the deadline. They added first baseman/second baseman Luis García Jr. from the Nationals on Sunday, left fielder Heliot Ramos from the Giants on Monday, and are reportedly promoting top prospect George Lombard Jr. on Tuesday. Without a timeline for the returns of both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and a hamstring injury sidelining Cody Bellinger, the Yankees needed to act decisively to improve their standing in the AL playoff picture. With a fantastic pitching staff now supported by a strengthened lineup, this team should be a force to reckon with in October. The only lingering question is whether or not Judge will be healthy for that postseason run.

The Astros swept the Rangers this past weekend to claim first place in the AL West for the first time since early April, and they’ve now won 10 of their last 12 games. This hot streak has helped them leapfrog both Texas and Seattle in the standings, putting them in the driver’s seat in their division. They didn’t make any splashy moves at the trade deadline, only sending right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to the Blue Jays for Daulton Varsho to give them a much-needed center fielder. The pitching staff has seen the return of Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski from their respective injuries recently, but it feels like Houston will only go as far as Yordan Alvarez can carry it.

The White Sox fared well in their matchups with the Yankees and Rays last week, going 4-3 against two of the best teams in the AL. The two wins vs. New York were particularly dramatic; they were both walk-offs in extra innings to secure the series split. Now Chicago has to face the Red Sox and Guardians this week to complete its AL gauntlet. In a welcome show of faith in the progress the team has made this year, the White Sox acquired veteran right-hander Luis Castillo from the Mariners to hopefully improve the starting rotation, along with a bunch of depth pieces — catcher Joey Bart from the Braves, center fielder Brenton Doyle from the Rockies, and righty reliever Huascar Brazobán from the Mets — to reinforce the rest of the roster. It’s now up to the young core to lead the South Siders through this stretch run.

The Diamondbacks were in a really weird position ahead of the trade deadline. They had played their way into a Wild Card spot over the last few weeks — they’re 14-6 since July 9 — but they didn’t exactly act like a buyer on Monday. Perhaps it was because they’ve got a handful of injured pitchers — Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka, and Justin Martinez are all in various stages of rehabbing from their respective injuries — who should help reinforce the pitching staff over the next few weeks. The one move they made, trading for lefty-hitting outfielder Lars Nootbaar, addresses one of the biggest holes in their lineup. Arizona started a critical four-game series against the Padres with a win on Monday.

The Twins were one of the surprising buyers at the deadline, adding righty reliever Jeff Hoffman from the Blue Jays, lefty reliever A.J. Minter from the Mets, and righty starter Dean Kremer to bolster the pitching staff. After losing the final two games of their weekend series against the Mariners in walk-off fashion, those bullpen reinforcements will be a huge help. The Twins are just a game behind the Guardians for the final Wild Card spot and four games back in the AL Central. Their roster looks pretty solid, but they’re currently missing the superstar who was carrying a lot of the offensive load, as Byron Buxton was placed back on the IL last week with the same hip injury that sidelined him for a few weeks earlier in July. Meanwhile, Cleveland added left-handed starter Foster Griffin, right-handed-hitting outfielder Jo Adell, and lefty-swinging first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to its roster on Monday. The three moves should add some juice to a team that’s been limping along with a 6-10 record since the All-Star break.

The Marlins snapped their 12-game losing streak last Monday and immediately rattled off six wins in seven games to jump right back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. That perfectly timed hot streak wasn’t enough to prevent the team from soft-selling at the deadline. Trading away catcher/first baseman Liam Hicks won’t have too much of a long-term impact since Miami had a bit of a logjam at first base and designated hitter, and catcher Joe Mack has acclimated to the big leagues very well since being called up in May. The core that had carried the Fish into this position in the playoff picture is still very much intact.

After being swept by the Astros over the weekend, there was some speculation that the Rangers would sell despite sitting two games back in the AL Wild Card race. They wound up standing pat and will ride their current roster as far as it will take them. The same can’t be said for the Orioles and Tigers. Both of those teams are just a half game behind Texas in the standings, but they opted for pretty dramatic teardowns. Detroit moved Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, while Baltimore traded away Adley Rutschman, Dean Kremer, Taylor Ward, and Tyler Wells. The AL standings have been wide open for the entire season, and instead of gambling on a chance at a playoff spot, these two teams have opted to punt for next year. That undoubtedly helps the Twins, Guardians, Rangers, and Mariners, all of whom are vying for that final Wild Card spot in addition to their respective divisional races.

The Blue Jays had a weird trade deadline. They dealt away Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho, two of their players on expiring contracts. They also went out and traded for right-handed starter José Soriano, giving up a significant prospect package to get the flamethrower from the Angels. Somehow, the Blue Jays successfully managed to straddle the line between selling and reloading for next year. Toronto’s follow-up season after coming so close to winning a championship has been incredibly disappointing, but the roster is built to win, World Series hangover be damned. Soriano and Arrighetti are two young starters who will definitely help the team in the years to come.

A five-game losing streak last week was a huge blow to the Nationals’ chances of staying in the NL Wild Card race down the stretch. They truly waived the white flag on competing this season when they traded Luis García Jr. to the Yankees on Sunday, then sent Foster Griffin to Cleveland on Monday. All is not lost in Washington, however. The offensive improvements seem like they’re for real, even if García Jr.’s power breakout was a big part of that jump forward. Now the Nats just need to figure out their pitching staff — and finding out if Cade Cavalli is the guy to lead the rotation is a big part of that.

The Angels had a surprisingly strong deadline, embracing their role as a seller and netting a ton of young talent to restock a barren farm system. Interim general manager John Mozeliak ripped the Band-Aid off the team’s resistance to tear things down and set the Halos on the path toward a full-scale rebuild. Overhauling their development pipeline to support these new prospects is the next priority, but these moves were a good first step.

The Athletics’ truly miserable stretch of play continued into August. They won just five games in July and started this month off getting swept by the Tigers. The team was leading the division on May 26 and had a .500 record as recently as June 19, and now it’s on the verge of dropping below the Angels for the worst record in baseball. To make things worse, Nick Kurtz is dealing with a hand issue after being hit by a pitch on the forearm on Wednesday. It’s unclear if he’ll need another IL stint so soon after returning from a thumb injury.