FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 26–June 1

The calendar has flipped to June, and the teams that are fighting for their place in the playoff picture are starting to get serious about addressing the flaws on their rosters.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Tigers clambered back to the top of these rankings by winning five of their six games last week. The margins have been pretty thin — their largest margin of victory was two runs — but the team has been figuring out ways to win. The Tigers still hold the best record and the largest division lead in baseball.

The Yankees salvaged a win on Sunday in a rematch of last year’s World Series, though the Dodgers won the first two games of the series pretty easily. There were plenty of fireworks for both teams, however. Shohei Ohtani blasted two home runs on Friday night, while Aaron Judge chipped in one of his own. The next night, it was Judge’s turn to hit a pair, though his solo shots were the only runs the Yankees scored in a blowout loss. The Dodgers have a pretty grueling schedule ahead, with four games against the Mets this week followed by series against the Cardinals, Padres (twice), and Giants.

After struggling in his first taste of the majors and getting demoted to Triple-A in mid-April, Matt Shaw has adjusted quite well since the Cubs recalled him on May 19. He has collected hits in nine of his 12 games since rejoining the big league club, including a huge walk-off winner last Tuesday.

The Mets took advantage of a bad week from the Phillies to climb to the top of the NL East standings. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto all homered on Sunday, the first time that superstar trio has done so this year. Meanwhile, a bruised elbow kept Bryce Harper from playing five of the Phillies’ six games last week. They lost four of the games he missed, including a sweep at the hands of the red hot Brewers. These two teams should be vying for the NL East crown all season long.

The Astros split a weird series against the Rays this past weekend. They were outscored 29-6 in their two losses, while their two wins were one-run affairs in which just four total runs were scored. Still, the big news in Houston was the new diagnosis of a hand fracture for Yordan Alvarez. The slugger had been working back from what was being called hand inflammation, and had progressed to taking live batting practice. A setback on Friday caused the club to reassess the injury, and that’s when the fracture was discovered. The misdiagnosis conjures memories of Kyle Tucker’s shin injury from last year that also wound up being a misdiagnosed fracture. Alvarez’s new timeline is unclear, though it doesn’t sound like it’ll be very much longer than initially expected.

The Mariners and Twins played a hard-fought series over the weekend, with Seattle emerging victorious on the back of walk-off wins on Saturday and Sunday. Cal Raleigh blasted four home runs in the three-game series — he now leads the majors with 23 total — and Saturday’s win came thanks to an RBI single in the 11th off the bat of top prospect Cole Young, who was making his major league debut. The two walk-offs were a pretty significant vibe shift for the M’s, who had just lost two consecutive extra-innings games in which they allowed a combined 13 runs to score in the 10th inning. The walk-offs also allowed Seattle to regain the top spot in the AL West after briefly slipping behind the Astros on Friday.

The Blue Jays mopped the Athletics this weekend, running their win streak to five games and pushing past the Rays in the AL East standings. The hot streak didn’t come without some bad news, however, as Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho were both placed on the IL last week. As for the Rays, they had their six-game win streak snapped on Tuesday, but they still managed to go 4-3 last week and are right in the thick of the very crowded AL Wild Card race.

With sweeps of the Red Sox and Phillies, the Brewers put together a seven-game win streak to finish May and salvaged what had been shaping up to be a pretty disappointing month. The man leading the charge? Christian Yelich, who has finally broken out of his season-long slump. He had an eight-game hit streak snapped on Sunday — he collected 17 hits and five home runs over that stretch — and the only reason why he couldn’t extend the streak was because he was removed from the game early after getting hit in the wrist by an errant pitch. Thankfully, the initial X-rays were negative.

It’s been over two weeks since the Giants have scored more than four runs in a single game; they’ve scored just 2.14 runs per game during this team-wide slump. Willy Adames has seen his wRC+ slip to just 76 in his first season with San Francisco. Thankfully, Robbie Ray has been good for some vintage performances to further bolster a solid pitching staff. Just a game behind the Padres in the NL West standings, the Giants will host San Diego in a huge four-game series this week.

After losing both of their series last week, the Royals dropped to 7-13 over their last 20 games. Because the AL playoff field is so crowded, they’re still right in the thick of things, but their offense desperately needs a spark to help turn things around. Enter Jac Caglianone. Kansas City plans on calling up the top prospect on Tuesday after he has crushed Triple-A pitching over the last two weeks. Considering that their offense is currently scoring the third-fewest runs per game in baseball, it’s the kind of gamble the Royals need to make.

The Nationals offense powered them past the Braves in the NL East standings last week. Washington scored nine or more runs in four straight wins last week, while Atlanta lost both of its series to the Phillies and Red Sox. Josh Bell hit home runs in three straight games, while James Wood chipped in three home runs of his own. This little hot streak has the Nats just three games under .500, though they’re still five games back in the NL Wild Card race. It’s progress.

The Diamondbacks’ season has taken a turn for the worse. They’ve lost four straight series, winning just three times in their last 12 games, and Corbin Burnes exited his start on Sunday early with a concerning elbow injury. Losing their ace for any length of time would be a huge blow to Arizona’s dwindling playoff hopes.

The Rangers offense awoke from its slumber last weekend; they scored 11 runs on Friday and another eight on Sunday. Marcus Semien had four hits in Friday’s victory and two more on Sunday to bring his wRC+ up to 64 on the season. Texas has managed to stick around on the fringe of the AL playoff picture thanks to a fantastic starting rotation. Unfortunately, Nathan Eovaldi, their best starter this year, was placed on the IL on Sunday with a minor triceps injury.

The Angels activated Mike Trout off the IL on Friday; baseball is always better when Trout is healthy and playing. Unfortunately for the Angels, they’ve now lost seven of their last eight games since their eight-game win streak was broken two weekends ago. Despite the up-and-down performance of the team, the Angels should be encouraged by Zach Neto’s development. He’s turned into an impressive little slugger.

For much of their recent history, the Marlins have had no problem churning out interesting young pitchers, but they’ve really struggled to develop impact hitters. That’s why Kyle Stowers’s breakout this year is such a big deal. With Xavier Edwards getting on base in front of Stowers and Agustín Ramírez, the team might have the start of an offensive core. Of course, no sooner has Miami solved a problem in the lineup, then the pitching pipeline appears to have dried up. The good news is that Eury Pérez is very close to returning from Tommy John surgery; perhaps he’ll inject some excitement into the pitching staff.

The Rockies finished the month of May with a single-digit win total and began June with their 50th loss of the season. They’ve now lost 22 series in a row dating back to last September, the longest series losing streak in major league history. They have a -185 run differential. What’s more, this month they’ll face the Marlins, Mets, Giants, Braves, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Brewers. That’s a tough schedule for any team, and it certainly doesn’t provide much hope for the Rockies.