FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 16–22

As we approach the midpoint of the season, the playoff races in both leagues are as muddy as ever. With July just around the corner and the trade deadline looming, the teams on the fringes of the postseason picture need to figure out if they’re truly contenders or if they need to start looking toward the future.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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The Dodgers separated themselves from the pack by going 7-3 in a 10-game stretch against the Padres and Giants over the last two weeks, and then threw in a series win over the Nationals last weekend for good measure. Shohei Ohtani dazzled in his second start of the season on Sunday, pitching a scoreless first inning with two strikeouts while hitting a home run and a triple at the plate.

The Phillies climbed back to the top of the NL East with a series win against the Mets last weekend. After being benched on Tuesday following some “inappropriate comments” he made toward manager Rob Thomson, Nick Castellanos provided eight hits upon his return to the lineup on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Trea Turner is slashing .296/.348/.535 (143 wRC+) since May 16, providing a spark for Philadelphia’s offense while Bryce Harper remains sidelined with a wrist injury.

The Tigers managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Rays and snapped a little three-game losing streak with a 9-3 victory on Sunday. Riley Greene did his best to show why he’s worthy of starting the All-Star Game; he had 11 hits and three home runs last week, including a multi-homer effort in Friday’s contest.

With their series win over the Tigers last weekend, the Rays have pushed their record to 13-6 in June and have now won 22 of their last 30 games. They’re thriving on both sides of the ball right now; during this stretch, they’re averaging 6.3 runs scored per game and just 3.6 runs allowed. Tampa Bay now has the third-best run differential in the American League and a three-game lead in the AL Wild Card race.

The Yankees were very nearly swept by the Angels in a four-game series in the Bronx last week, but managed to get back on track with a series win against the Orioles over the weekend. After the Yankees had ended the previous week with a 2-0 loss to the Red Sox, the Halos shut them out in the first two games of the series; it marked the first time since 2016 that New York was held scoreless in three straight games, en route to a season-long six-game losing streak that was finally snapped on Thursday. Yankees pitchers are doing their best to carry the load, allowing just 2.4 runs per game over the last two weeks, but their hitters have combined for a meager 92 wRC+ during that span. For what it’s worth, the lineup’s woes have corresponded with a relative slump from Aaron Judge. He’s slashing .217/.333/.500 with four home runs and a 120 wRC+ in his last 13 games, a stretch that has probably ended his bid to bat .400 this season. His overall average is down to .367.

Jacob Misiorowski’s introduction to the big leagues has gone about as well as anyone could’ve hoped; he didn’t allow a hit through his first 11 innings in the majors and took a perfect game through the sixth inning of his start on Friday. His debut a week and a half ago has sparked a 7-2 stretch from the Brewers that has pushed them into the final NL Wild Card spot.

The Mets finally snapped their seven-game losing streak on Saturday, but their relief was short lived, as their loss to the Phillies on Sunday night dropped them out of first place in the NL East. A rash of injuries has put their starting rotation under some strain, though Frankie Montas should be activated off the IL on Tuesday, with Sean Manaea not far behind. The bigger problem has been the offense; the Mets were shut out twice and scored just 2.3 runs per game during their losing streak. An 11-run outburst on Saturday was a nice change of pace, and Juan Soto blasted two home runs in the blowout victory, but the lineup went dormant again on Sunday. Speaking of Soto, if the Mets are looking for silver linings, he has fully emerged from his early-season struggles. He has the third-best wRC+ (225) in the majors since the start of June.

The Cardinals bounced back last week with a five-game winning streak before losing the final game of their weekend series with the Reds. St. Louis begins this week with its first matchup against the first-place Cubs this season, a four-game series at Busch Stadium. That makes the timing of Iván Herrera’s hamstring injury particularly unfortunate, as the Cards will have to face their division rival without their best hitter.

The hot and windy weekend series between the Mariners and Cubs was full of fireworks; the two teams combined for 21 home runs in the three-game set. In the middle of it all was Cal Raleigh, who slashed .417/.481/1.125 with five home runs and 12 RBI across six games last week. His season totals are now up to 31 homers and 66 RBI, ranking first and second in the majors, respectively. He’s setting all sorts of records for offensive output from the catching position, and he’d be the front-runner for AL MVP if Aaron Judge weren’t in the middle of what could go down as the greatest season ever for a right-handed hitter.

The Guardians are currently tied with the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot thanks to a couple of series wins against the Giants and Athletics last week. However, they might be out over their skis a bit, as their current record is three wins better than you’d expect based on their run differential and six wins better than their BaseRuns record. It all comes down to their lineup; they’ve scored more than four runs in just two of their last 20 games. You’ve got to wonder when prospects like Chase DeLauter and C.J. Kayfus are going to get the call, because the guys in Cleveland aren’t getting the job done right now.

Heading into their weekend series with the Cardinals, the Reds were 9-3 over their previous 12 games. Cincinnati lost that series in St. Louis but is still firmly in the Wild Card picture. The Diamondbacks are also hanging around in the Wild Card race. They’ve gone 12-7 since Corbin Burnes injured his elbow, and their upcoming series against the White Sox and Marlins should help them pad their record before they begin a big four-game set against the Giants to kick off next week.

There’s no love lost between the Padres and Dodgers. The two division rivals wrapped up a span of seven games in 11 days, and things got especially heated last week during a four-game set in Los Angeles. Eight batters were hit by pitches in the series, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, and Andy Pages each getting drilled twice. The Dodgers wound up winning the series, pushing San Diego out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but the Friars got back on track with a series win against the Royals last weekend. Tatis hit his first home run since May 27 on Saturday, and Jackson Merrill was activated off the 7-day IL on Sunday.

The Angels already have a three-game sweep of the Dodgers under their belt this year, and they almost added a four-game sweep of the Yankees last week. Since they’re still on the fringe of the AL Wild Card race, they’re in the awkward position of trying to compete while making sure their youngsters get plenty of playing time. They called up Christian Moore a few weeks ago, but he’s struggled with his first taste of big league pitching. Jo Adell isn’t a prospect anymore, but he has taken some big steps forward this year and might have finally developed into an above-average contributor.

The Braves may not be dead yet, but they’re barely hanging on. Following a huge sweep of the Mets last week, Atlanta fell on its face against the Marlins over the weekend. The Braves will get another shot to revive their season with seven games against the Mets and Phillies this week. Unfortunately, Chris Sale was placed on the IL with a fractured left rib cage, making their ascent all the more difficult.

The Twins have hit another valley in their roller coaster season. They started the year 13-20 before their big 13-game winning streak sparked a 21-8 stretch that lasted until June 4. They’ve gone 3-13 since then, and suddenly they’re back on the fringe of the AL Wild Card race. Byron Buxton is doing everything in his power to carry the team right now; he smacked home runs in three consecutive games last week and capped things off with another pair of home runs on Sunday. The Twins lost all but one of those games in which he homered.

Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz had a phenomenal week. Including the previous Sunday, he bashed five home runs in a six-game stretch. On Monday, he clubbed his first walk-off home run of his career and added his second for good measure on Thursday. With Jacob Wilson the favorite to take home the AL Rookie of the Year award and Denzel Clarke making dazzling plays in center field seemingly every night, you have to admit, the A’s are a fun team to watch right now. Just ignore what their pitching staff is doing. The A’s have allowed a whopping 462 runs this season; no other AL team has given up more than 400.

Although their schedules initially were lined up, we were robbed of a potential Paul Skenes–Tarik Skubal matchup on Thursday because of a rainout and a doubleheader. Instead, we get to look forward to a Skenes-Misiorowski duel on Wednesday. It’s easy to bemoan the state of Pittsburgh’s roster outside of Skenes, but we should all take a moment to appreciate what he’s accomplished on an individual level. He’s leading the NL in pitching WAR (3.3) and ERA (1.85) and ranks second in FIP (2.48), and this is only his second year in the big leagues. His win-loss record is 4-6 through 16 starts. The lowest win total for a non-reliever, non-2020 Cy Young winner is 13 (Félix Hernández in 2010 and Robbie Ray in 2021); Skenes could win the award this year without hitting double-digit wins.

The Rockies bats have come alive this month! Their .339 wOBA in June ranks third in baseball, with Mickey Moniak (249 wRC+ in June), Hunter Goodman (193), Tyler Freeman (182), and Ryan McMahon (125) leading the way. Of that quartet, you could argue that Goodman and Freeman are the only pieces the organization should build around. Conspicuously absent from that list of hot hitters are Brenton Doyle (-1 wRC+ in June) and Ezequiel Tovar (injured). Make of that what you will.