FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 19–25

This week, as the playoff picture becomes clearer and the best teams continue to jockey for seeding, we have another abbreviated power rankings. The only real drama over the next week and a half will come from the two Wild Card races and the battle over the NL East. These rankings will return for a special playoff edition once the field is set.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Dodgers clinched the top seed in the National League yesterday, ensuring that the NL road to the World Series goes through Los Angeles, and will play six of their final nine games against the Rockies at home. If there’s something to be worried about, it’s their pitching staff; Dustin May was placed on the IL with a lower back strain and Craig Kimbrel was removed from his ninth inning role after his persistent troubles became too much to handle. Tony Gonsolin should be returning from his own injury soon, and it’s possible May will heal quickly enough to be a factor in the postseason. Still, there are a lot of questions surrounding the best team in baseball as it coasts into October.

The battle for the NL East continues to be hotly contested, with the winner determining seeding now that both the Mets and Braves have clinched playoff spots. The two clubs will face off in a three-game series in Atlanta this weekend; the Braves have the opportunity to gain half a game in the standings since they play one more game than the Mets to start the week. The winner of that series will likely emerge as the division champion, barring any setbacks during the final few games remaining afterwards. The Braves will have to manage without one of their rookie phenoms, however, as Spencer Strider was placed on the IL with a strained oblique on Saturday.

After teetering on the edge of disaster for most of August, the Yankees have come roaring back in September. They completed a tightly contested four-game sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend, pushing their win streak to seven games. All told, they’ve won 15 of the 21 games they’ve played this month and are finally looking more like the team that dominated the American League in the first half of the season. Aaron Judge didn’t hit his 61st home run at home over the weekend and will take his pursuit of history to Toronto to start the week before returning home to face the Orioles this weekend.

Judge might not have reached 61 (or 62) yet, but on Friday, Albert Pujols became the fourth player in baseball history to slug 700 home runs after blasting two in Los Angeles. Incredibly, since August 1, Pujols has hit 14 home runs on his way to making history; only Eugenio Suárez and Judge have hit more during that span. The Cardinals are on the verge of clinching the NL Central and their fourth straight postseason appearance; a two-game series against the Brewers this week is their final hurdle before closing out the season with six straight against the Pirates.

The Guardians opened up the month with a five-game losing streak and a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mariners, dropping them into a tie atop the AL Central standings. Since then, they’ve lost just three times and clinched a division championship with a win on Sunday afternoon. They can’t change their playoff seeding, so their main goal this week will be to maintain this hot streak and get into the postseason with a healthy roster.

The Padres have put a little breathing room between themselves and the Phillies and Brewers in the NL Wild Card race; they’ve won seven of their last 10 games and lead Philadelphia by a game and a half and Milwaukee by three. Their last three opponents aren’t going to be easy, however, as they prepare to face the Dodgers, White Sox, and Giants. The only consolation is that all nine games are at home, where their pitching staff is a massive asset.

On September 1, the Mariners and Rays were separated by a half a game atop the AL Wild Card standings. Both of those teams have produced matching .500 records this month and seem to be limping into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have gone 16-8 and now lead the Wild Card race by two and a half games. Both Toronto and Tampa Bay have a tough schedule to close out the season while the Mariners face three teams below .500 in a 10-game homestand. Of course, strength of schedule is only part of the equation — you have to actually beat those teams when it comes down to it. Seattle couldn’t do that in a 10-game road trip versus the Angels, A’s, and Royals, going 3-7 against those teams.

The battle for the final NL Wild Card spot will be the one of the few drama-filled chases over the season’s final week. The Brewers sit a game and a half behind Philadelphia but arguably have an easier path to a postseason berth; they play nine games at home against the Cardinals, Marlins, and Diamondbacks to close the season. They’ve been far better within the friendly confines of American Family Field this year (.583 win%). Meanwhile, the Phillies will head out on the road for their final 10 games, traveling to Chicago, Washington, and Houston. They currently control their destiny, but that road trip will surely put them to the test.

Want to know if a team eliminated from the playoffs can affect the postseason picture over the final stretch of the season? Here’s a handy table to refer to:

Fans of the Nationals, Marlins, Red Sox, and Rangers will be happy to know that the games their team plays over the next week and a half could have major implications for the remaining playoff races. Sadly, the same can’t be said if you’re a fan of the Twins, Reds, or Angels.

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