FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 12, 2025
And just like that, the postseason field is down to four teams. Tonight, the Blue Jays host the Mariners for Game 1 of the ALCS; tomorrow, the NLCS between the Brewers and Dodgers gets underway in Milwaukee. Two of those four clubs advanced to the CS in ridiculous fashion. First, on Thursday, Los Angeles walked off the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS when, with the bases loaded and two outs, Orion Kerkering panicked after recovering a deflected comebacker and airmailed his throw home instead of tossing to first for the sure out. In his recap of the game, Ben Clemens dubbed the play “Orion’s Melt.” Then, on Friday night, the Mariners and Tigers played 15 innings of baseball before Jorge Polanco ripped a walk-off single into right field.
As always, we’re writing about everything going on during the postseason. You can find Davy Andrews’ recap of Milwaukee’s Game 5 win over the Cubs from last night here. Later today, Dan Szymborski is previewing the ALCS, then Jay Jaffe will have Game 1 covered for you tonight.
Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I’d like to remind you all of a quick programming note. We’re still doing our weekly mailbag during the postseason, but like today, we might move around the specific day it runs depending on the playoff schedule. Our plan is to do one before every postseason round. Also, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
To Kyle’s question, I think it really is just the category-bending nature of the 30/30 feat that makes it stand out. The “guy defies stereotype” thing. Slugger Big, Stealer Small. Last year I told my extremely casual baseball fan father (he usually only watches the World Series) that a guy went 50/50 and that was his take: “Huh. Home run hitters usually aren’t fast.” Then I got to play the “They aren’t usually pitchers either!” card.
Even further: maybe what stands out about most 30/30 guys is that one half is surprising and specifically expectation defying. For example, this year, Juan Soto nearly went 40/40 – to which the reaction would have been, “Juan Soto?! Stealing bases?!” Elsewhere in history: Ohtani stealing?? Ellsbury and Mullins hitting that many homers?? Jimmy Rollins power season, Hank Aaron strapping on wheels…
Obviously, there is a rare athletic archetype that is built for 30/30 (Jose Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, the Bonds family). But I do think if you look through the history of 30/30 seasons, the surprise factor is a very big reason why those marks are remembered.