Mariners Finally ‘Seize the Moment’ and Advance Past Tigers to ALCS

SEATTLE — On a per-game basis during the regular season, the Mariners and Tigers both scored and allowed roughly the same number of runs — 4.70 and 4.28, respectively. Through the first four games of the best-of-five ALDS, each team eked out a one-run win and each team triumphed in something of a laugher. Both teams won one game at home and one game on the road, and both teams relied extensively on their bullpens. Heading into Game 5 on Friday night in Seattle, it was clear one team was going to need to do something to distinguish itself. These teams entered the night locked in a dead heat, having played matching hands for much of the series and needing a new strategy, something different to get an edge and break the stalemate, and even then, it required 15 innings and four hours and 58 minutes to do that. When it was all over, the Mariners had outlasted the Tigers, 3-2, on a walk-off single by Jorge Polanco to advance to the American League Championship Series for the first time in 24 years.

“I don’t even know where to begin to try to recap all the heroic efforts that went into today,” manager Dan Wilson said. “And 15 innings? I’ve got to say, I don’t know how the fans kept their energy going. It was unbelievably loud, even in the 15th inning. And this is a special place. T-Mobile Park is a special place, and they showed us that tonight. And just an incredible ballgame from top to bottom.”

Both starting pitchers were taking the mound for a second time in the series, and both brought a slightly different approach to Game 5 than what they put on tape in their prior starts. In Game 1, Seattle starter George Kirby threw his slider 31% of the time; it was the first pitch he threw to eight of the 22 batters he faced. In Game 5, Kirby went to his slider 50% of the time and threw it as the first pitch to 10 of the 18 batters he faced. After the game, he confirmed this was a conscious shift in strategy to show Detroit’s lineup something different from what it’d seen from him six days prior. “All those guys from top to bottom are probably looking for a heater to start,” Kirby said, “and just starting off with a slider, curveball, whatever it may be, just — if I kept them off balance a little bit, I was able to attack the zone a little bit more with my fastball.” By mixing in more sliders early in the count, he was able to maintain the effectiveness of his four-seamer despite the recent exposure. Though the slider-heavy approach meant Kirby racked up fewer strikeouts than usual, he finished his outing allowing just three hits and one earned run over five innings with six punchouts.

After going to his changeup just 22% of the time in Game 2, the Game 5 version of Detroit starter Tarik Skubal went back to throwing his changeup over 30% of the time (in line with his average usage on the season) and scaled back his slider and sinker usage dramatically.

As Jake Mailhot noted prior to Game 5, the Mariners offense was happy to feast on the buffet of sinkers and sliders he laid out on chafing dishes during his first three encounters with Seattle this season. At least to the extent that anyone really gets to eat against Skubal. With that surely in mind, Skubal chose to rely more heavily on his changeup, which is his best pitch by Stuff+ and run value. And though his Game 2 start was only marred by the two home runs hit by Polanco, the recalibrated pitch mix Skubal threw in Game 5 was even more effective, serving up a final line of six innings pitched, two hits, no walks, 13 strikeouts, and one earned run. Skubal’s best got even better and he distinguished himself even further by setting a postseason record for consecutive strikeouts at seven.

But while certain aspects of each team’s game plan needed to evolve to stay competitive and perhaps manufacture an advantage, others provide a steadfast edge that should never be modified. Like Josh Naylor’s baserunning. Despite moving at a glacial pace, Naylor reads pitchers and situations like a book. His ability to get the right read led to 30 stolen bases during the regular season and multiple instances during Game 4 where he overtly relayed signals to the batter while standing at second base. So when Naylor doubled in the second, it should have come as no surprise when he made a move to steal third. But Skubal seemed suddenly struck by a bout of ephemeral amnesia, causing him to forget to check the runner. Naylor was able to read Skubal and made it over halfway to third by the time the ace started his delivery. It’s clear Naylor couldn’t believe his good luck because he briefly broke back toward second. The crowd realized what was happening before Skubal did, and as the roar spread through the stadium, perhaps Naylor was worried the overexcited fans were going to blow his cover. But Skubal’s focus stayed trained on Mitch Garver at the plate, and Naylor swiped third on Skubal’s memory lapse. From there, Naylor scored easily when Garver drove a ball deep to right-center field. And with that, Seattle jumped out to a 1-0 lead.

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Eventually, the starters came out of the game, and it was on managers Wilson and Detroit’s A.J. Hinch to find a new way to gain an advantage. Initially, Wilson played the hits, which led him to bring in Gabe Speier to face Kerry Carpenter for the fourth time in the series. After Wilson let Kirby face Carpenter for a third time in Game 1, and Carpenter hit a go-ahead two-run homer, Speier became Wilson’s go-to guy for retiring Carpenter, one of the most platoon-heavy players in the game. Carpenter owns a career 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a mark of 69 vs. lefties, with 63 of his 70 career home runs in the regular season coming with the platoon advantage. He’s also 7-for-13 with five home runs in his career against Kirby, including the playoffs, with two of those hits (both singles) coming in his two previous times up in Game 5. The move made sense.

And yet, when Carpenter stepped in against Speier with a runner on second and nobody out, he drove a middle-middle fastball 411 feet to give the Tigers a 2-1 lead in the sixth. Carpenter did the very thing Wilson’s tried-and-true Speier-strategy aimed to prevent.

Then, in the seventh inning with runners on first and second and Skubal out of the game, Wilson attempted to send the lefty-hitting Dominic Canzone and his 150 wRC+ against righties to the plate to face right-handed reliever Kyle Finnegan in place of Garver and his 63 wRC+ against righties. But once Canzone was announced, Hinch lifted Finnegan from the game and brought in lefty Tyler Holton. From there, Wilson pivoted to birthday boy and switch-hitter, Leo Rivas, who brings neutral platoon splits to the function. As such, when Holton left a changeup over the plate, Rivas looped it into left field for a game-tying single. Bringing in Rivas was a departure in strategy for Seattle. Initially, when Rivas heard his number called, he thought he was most likely coming in to run for Polanco who stood at second. Instead, he took his first-ever postseason plate appearance and knotted the score at two.

“To be honest, I was ready to run for Polo on second,” said Rivas, who turned 28 on Friday. “Then [bench coach] Manny [Acta] came to the case, ‘Hey, Papa, come here. Go get this guy.’ I’m like, ‘All right, I’ve got him.’”

The Mariners next move to shake things up and create separation from the Tigers was to bring in starters Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo out of the bullpen. The two pitchers have headlined Seattle’s rotation over the last few years and neither has pitched a single inning in relief at the major league level. Gilbert last pitched out of the pen during his sophomore year at Stetson University in 2017, while Castillo last appeared as a reliever for the Marlins High-A affiliate in 2016. Gilbert and Castillo combined for 3 1/3 scoreless innings, preventing Wilson from needing to call upon the members of the bullpen that Detroit had already knocked around earlier in the series.

As the innings wore on, Hinch cycled through Finnegan, Holton, and Will Vest — his mainstay relievers. He also called upon Troy Melton and Keider Montero, his all-purpose pitchers, who have spent the season cycling between starting and relieving. Then, like Wilson, Hinch asked a starter to power through a couple of innings. Game 3 starter Jack Flaherty worked the 13th and 14th after not having appeared in relief since pitching one inning out of the bullpen for the Cardinals in 2022.

But before we get to what happened in the 15th inning, we must pause for a brief interlude to explain some T-Mobile Park lore to those not already in the know. As part of the between-inning entertainment at every home game, the Mariners host a Salmon Run in which four salmon — King, Sockeye, Silver, and Humpy — race along the warning track. Stats are kept documenting each salmon’s record, and famously, Humpy had never won. As of this writing, the fun fact in Humpy’s bio on the Mariner’s website reads, “Has never won the race!” Just over a week ago, outfielder Victor Robles joined the Salmon Run to ensure Humpy stayed winless. But as the two teams continued to tack on extra innings, someone behind the scenes made the call to stage a second Salmon Run. And y’all are never gonna believe what happened: Humpy notched its first career win. The players and coaches were not the only ones in the stadium pushing the envelope in the hope of securing a victory.

Then, in the bottom of the 15th Tommy Kahnle took the rubber for the Tigers. Kahnle famously throws changeups 86% of the time. But perhaps knowing a shift in strategy would be necessary to finally overcome the deadlock in both the game and the series, Kahnle threw just 62% changeups, opting to mix in six fastballs. Or maybe the uptick in fastball usage was simply a byproduct of Kahnle’s inability to locate his changeup. Normally, he is able to throw the pitch to all quadrants of the zone, but on Friday, Kahnle struggled to even kiss the shadow region of the zone. His only way to tempt hitters to swing was to use his fastball to prove he could still hit the zone with something. But it wasn’t enough.

After J.P. Crawford singled to start the inning, Kahnle hit Randy Arozarena to put two runners on with no outs. The next batter was Cal Raleigh, who hit a fly ball to center that seemed ill-placed to advance the runners, but Crawford tagged up and pushed for third anyway, and a throwing error Parker Meadows not only allowed Crawford to reach third, but it also let Arozarena move up to second. Detroit intentionally walked Julio Rodríguez to load the bases for Polanco, hoping he would roll over a Kahnle changeup and ground into an inning-ending double play. Instead, Polanco worked the count full and then got just enough of the barrel on a low-and-away changeup to rip it through the four-hole into right field, scoring Crawford and sending Seattle into a state of joyous delirium.

“I know we played a long game, but this team never gave up,” Polanco said. “I know there is a lot of emotion, but we are always trying to keep it simple. I’m just trying to go out there and play and trying to get the win.”

With the win, the Mariners advance to the ALCS to face the Blue Jays. It will be Seattle’s first appearance in the Championship Series since 2001 and fourth time overall. Though the team has found success at various points over the last 30 years, but it has never reached the World Series.

While waiting for Wilson to join the media in the interview room for his postgame press conference, a Mariners PR person brought in a gray plastic chair and placed it behind the mic at the center of the table, between several padded leather chairs. When Wilson entered the room, the reason for the change became clear. Visibly dripping with a soup of beer and champagne, Wilson took his seat — the gray plastic one — so as not to ruin the upholstery of the chairs on either side. The rearranging of the furniture represented one final strategic shift to get Seattle over the ALDS hump and on to Toronto, where the series begins this Sunday.