David Laurila: Greetings, all. About to move a load of laundry, then back to chat.
8:03
Dan Szymborski: And to you Alex! Though sadly, it signals the end of baseball!
8:03
Dreamin: The two NL West heavyweights we all expected all along
8:03
Dan Szymborski: I guaranteed I did NOT project two NL West teams in the World Series!
8:04
Uncle Spike: I don’t think enough people are talking about the fact that the Braves are in the World Series DESPITE the fact that they are without arguably the best player in baseball. Would they be an overwhelming favorite if Acuna was healthy?
8:05
Alex Sonty: With a healthy Acuna, are they so aggressive at the deadline?
8:05
Dan Szymborski: They would be! I admit I thought they were dead in the water.
8:06
GoBarves: Is there a Statcast broadcast? I really don’t want to listen to Smoltz and Buck for 4 hours
8:06
Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m mistaken — which is a regular occurrence — they don’t do any on the Fox games.
8:06
David Laurila: Statcast broadcast is definitely better.
8:06
Alex Sonty: Could be worse. Could be Costas and Showalter complaining about how the game sucks.
8:07
Dan Szymborski: Smoltz does his best to complain!
8:07
Alex Sonty: He does work hard for the money, you’re right
8:07
David Laurila: Showalter is far from perfect, but he’s actually pretty good IMO. Far better insight than many analysts.
8:08
pabravesfan: A-Rod and Papi picked the Astros, so it’s a lock for the Bravos, right?
8:09
Mrs. Phanatic: Reminder for all of us nerds: the announcers aren’t for us, they’re for the general public that loves pronouncing RBIs as ribbies.
8:09
David Laurila: This is true.
8:09
Alex Sonty: True, Phanatic
8:09
Dan Szymborski: One downside of the Statcast broadcast is you miss whatever wackiness A-Rod said that Twitter is going on about!
8:09
Alex Sonty: I don’t know what you’re talking about, Dan.
8:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m just here to watch the world burn! lol
8:10
Lzfreak: Is A Rod still calling this Astros team an upstart underdog?
8:10
Alex Sonty: (like i literally don’t know, as i’ve only watched a-rod call a game once or twice)
8:10
Dan Szymborski: Did you ever encounter his odd leads vs. even leads thing? I still obnoxiously snark about that.
8:10
David Laurila: It stood out during the ALCS how Chaim Bloom strove put together “team versatility,” with numerous players who could, and did, play multiple positions. They mixed-and-matched a lot. Conversely, the Astros and Braves have more standard lineups, without a lot of multi-position going on. Chas McCormick at all three OF positions is really the only one for Houston, while Atlanta had a few outfielders moving around, but that was more from necessity than intent.
8:11
Dan Szymborski: I totally forgot that Kyle Wright was still around when they added him to the roster.
8:11
Blue Morpho: O/U 10 innings combined from starters tonight?
8:12
Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna say over!
8:12
egm: Arod says the word “hitterish” a lot and it’s like nails on a chalkboard to me
8:12
Alex Sonty: Cringe word
8:12
Alex Sonty: I got the under on 10 IP
8:13
Dan Szymborski: Oh.
8:13
Mrs. Phanatic: Hard under. World Series games in 2021? First sign of danger they’re getting pulled.
8:13
Hugh Duffy: The Braves needed someone to replace Huascar Ynoa. Potential Game 4 starter in Wright. Or long right-handed reliever.
8:13
Alex Sonty: Jorge Soler has the most power in the WS
8:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure, I just forgot he was there. Like the place near me that has good buffalo wings but you have to physically go get them yourself like it’s 1993.
8:14
Alex Sonty: I think his barrel rate is the highest since 2020
8:15
David Laurila: My “let’s talk about teams’ roster construction” idea shall play second-fiddle to early-inning action.
8:17
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: TACO
8:17
Lzfreak: TACO
8:17
Mrs. Phanatic: Is there a better first name for a World Series pitcher than Framber?
8:17
David Laurila: Burleigh Grimes pitched in multiple World Series.
8:17
Dan Szymborski: If he steals third here, do we get good tacos?
8:17
Jake Cave: Last time there was a leadoff homer to begin the WS? Dexter Fowler in 2016. Is that a sign that this will be a great series?
8:18
Lzfreak: Astros need to upgrade to Frambest
8:18
RTJ: Valdez not locating pitches early. Could be looking at a way-under ?
8:18
Dan Szymborski: My fault for taking the over!
8:18
GoBarves: I hear Mrs. Phanatic on the “broadcast isn’t for us” thing, but can we at least get the OPS listed instead of AVG? That’s been known for 20+ years!
8:18
GoBarves: Which Atlanta pending FA outfielder would you bring back? Personally was a big Rosario believer going into the season, but with a possible perma-DH next season, maybe Soler is the pick if you only get one?
8:18
Alex Sonty: Soler because dingers and age. Rosario disappeared for a lot of this year. Duvall is pushing the mid-30s.
8:19
Hugh Duffy: Thanks Ozzie Albies! 🌮🌮🌮
8:19
David Laurila: Hugh Duffy batted .440 one year for the Braves franchise.
8:19
David Laurila: The Braves franchise played in Boston from 1876 through 1952 before moving to Milwaukee, and then to Atlanta in 1966. While in Boston, they played as the Red Stockings, Beaneaters, Doves, Rustlers, and — beginning in 1912 — the Braves.
8:22
DBRuns: “Atlanta won 88 games in the regular season, but that’s misleading”. So, what, did they actually win a different number of games?
8:22
Alex Sonty: The Braves Pyth was 94-67 and this was not the roster with which they started the season, so the 88 wins are a bit misleading as to how good they are now.
8:22
Dan Szymborski: Was it ever established if George Stallings’ deathbed words were apocryphal?
8:23
Dan Szymborski: I like how baseball has made it that I’m a long division genius so long as the denominator is precisely 162.
8:23
David Laurila: As impressive as the 2021 Braves second half was…The 1914 Boston “Miracle” Braves had a record of 4-18 on May 20 and didn’t reach .500 until August 1. They finished 94-59 and then swept the Philadelphia A’s in the World Series.
8:23
Dan Szymborski: 94/162? That’s .580. 94/161? .580somethingorother?
8:23
pabravesfan: Re: 88 wins–The Braves team that’s playing now has something like the 3rd most wins in the MLB, since it was constructed.
8:24
RTJ: Beaneaters has to be an all-time good nickname
8:24
Kevin: The Braves also had a second half record that extrapolates to a 99-win season, so they got a lot better.
8:24
Hugh Duffy: I hope that the World Series MVP hits like I did in 1894.
8:24
Shodai: Babe Ruth: Braves legend
8:25
BigDaddeh: Do the Astros still wear the tequila sunrise alternates or no?
8:25
Dan Szymborski: They wear them time to time, but I missed the last time they did it.
8:26
Brooks: Is Framber’s velo jump just the usual postseason bump?
Mrs. Phanatic: The word bean was mentioned, Dan is legally obligation to mention chili in some form. Did Chili Davis ever play in a World Series?
8:26
Dan Szymborski: What does “bean” have to do with chili? <ducking>
8:26
Monkey Wrench: Remember that terrible baseball movie, Ed? With Joey from friends? Anyway, How would you rate each of their tools and FV?
8:27
Alex Sonty: Dan with the kick to the nuts, smh
8:27
Dan Szymborski: heh
8:28
Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard the plot to Ed and I know it was one of Jack Warden’s final roles, but I never actually saw it
8:28
Dan Szymborski: I’d take OPS over BA, but I’d take seasonal BA over postseason OPS
8:28
David Laurila: FWIW: We wouldn’t have had baseball tonight had the Red Sox advanced to the Series. Lots of rain and wind here in Boston. Tomorrow may have washed out, as well.
8:28
Alex Sonty: Seasonal anything over postseason stats
8:29
Dan Szymborski: Lawry’s Seasoning Salt > Postseason stats
8:29
Dan Szymborski: Oh, freezing Altuve with that peekaboo curve
Quarantino Martinez: I hope Peter Angelos is looking at this Astros lineup/staff and feeling bad about not spending on international free agents for a generation.
8:29
David Laurila: Fortunately for the O’s, that should be a thing of the past.
8:30
Dan Szymborski: Winning, too!
8:30
Jake Cave: Would all-time postseason batting average be better, especially for the Astros hitters?
8:30
Alex Sonty: You’re making this harder than it has to be
8:30
Mrs. Phanatic: Another reminder: Charlie Morton, when he sucked way back when, just decided to go and copy verbatim Roy Halladay’s delivery. And now he’s pitching game one in the WS. RIP Doc, I miss you.
8:31
Dan Szymborski: Always crib from the greats!
8:31
BigDaddeh: Has anyone ever signed Morton to a FA deal and regretted it after? Guy always seems to deliver
8:31
Alex Sonty: Morton’s old game is gonna take him into his 40s if he wants.
8:31
Jake Cave: First player you think of? I’ll go Hunter Pence
8:32
Dan Szymborski: Bags
8:32
Alex Sonty: Bagwell
8:32
Dan Szymborski: With that logo especially
8:32
Dan Szymborski: 80s logo, Mike Scott
8:32
Alex Sonty: Totally. It looks like facial hair….. 80s, I got Nolan.
8:32
Cameron: Probably one of the best deliveries to copy. I remember coaches teaching me to copy Halladay too
8:33
Doug: Biggio
8:33
Lzfreak: Carlos Lee
8:33
MantisTobagganMD: Berkman
8:33
Jeffrey: Craig Biggio. Second best Astros 2B ever
8:33
Alex Sonty: lukewarm take
8:33
Dan Szymborski: I sucked because I stole Terry Leach’s delivery instead.
8:34
5 Run Homer: Randy Myers
8:34
Alex Sonty: I remember Randy Myers as just a premier leverage pitcher. Am I wrong?
8:36
Lzfreak: Is Lance Berkman the most underrated player ever? I always look up his stats and am very surprised how great he was
8:36
David Laurila: Berkman and “Indian Bob” Johnson are in the same conversation.
8:36
Dan Szymborski: I pitched sidearm as a kid because I injured my shoulder sledding when I was 9 and I’ve had occasional slight shoulder pain like it feels like it’s juuuuuust popping out since.
8:36
Alex Sonty: I think I got Kevin Brown as most underrated, personally
8:36
Dan Szymborski: And it felt better to my arm.
8:37
Quarantino Martinez: Ran into my high school baseball coach as a (drunk) adult, and he compared my motion to Jesse Orosco’s. Still not sure if it was a compliment.
8:37
Dan Szymborski: Him as a drunk adult or you?
8:38
Dan Szymborski: I also have a knee I injured crawling through a weird tunnel at St. Louis’ city museum in 2011.
8:39
Quarantino Martinez: him drunk
8:39
Don: I’m finishing watching Succession, but will tune into the game after. Alex, I wasn’t aware you were at fangraphs. Hopefully it hasn’t been too long and I’ve just been oblivious. You got any weird stuff outside of baseball you’re into like Dan and a lot of the other fangraphs staff (I did a Twitter look and saw you do NFL and have political science expertise. Good stuff)? Things you wouldn’t mind the occasional off topic chat question about maybe? Welcome too, if you do happen to be relatively new.
8:39
Alex Sonty: Thanks, Don. I wrote DFS articles all season. Baseball and football are business for me; NBA, too. For fun, I play guitar and go bowling with friends a couple times a month. I also love gory movies.
8:39
Dan Szymborski: A friend had the reception for his wedding rehearsal there. I figured if I ignored it, it would go away, 10 years later, my knee still pops loudly every time I bend it after it was straight for awhile.
Jake Cave: If you could have one player on either one of these rosters for the next five years who would it be?
8:40
Alex Sonty: Yordan and not sure it’s close
8:41
Dan Szymborski: Is Stanley in 1986 the most famous baseball wild pitch/passed ball?
8:41
Jake Cave: What about Jeter as most underrated all time?
8:41
Alex Sonty: Jeter is properly rated in most baseball circles. There are some in which he’s underrated but that’s just a loud fringe.
8:42
Quarantino Martinez: It’s impressive that Yordan is so good at drawing walks given how big his strikezone is
8:42
Roach: If looking at current rosters as is…maybe Albies and only because of how generous that contract is.
8:42
David Laurila: Seven balls have been put in play tonight. Soler’s home run is fourth hardest at 105.0 mph.
8:43
Dan Szymborski: If Charlie Morton’s mad about something, do we describe it as Morton’s salt?
8:43
ChuckNChino: People still bowl?
8:43
Alex Sonty: Very few between 25 and 50 bowl, but, yes, the lanes are packed Thursday through Saturday.
8:44
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I bowled since I was 25. I’ll probably start going in 7 more years
8:44
Dan Szymborski: This commercial is basically stealing the Lees of Virginia song from 1776
8:45
Brooks: Yordan even with the worries about the knees?
8:46
Alex Sonty: I kinda’ don’t care? I’ll take some injuries from a guy in his mid-20s to lesser talents with age bombs. Who you got from these rosters?
8:46
Lzfreak: This is not gonna be a short game
8:46
Dan Szymborski:
8:46
David Laurila: Andrew Miller said in the most-recent episode of FanGraphs Audio that his about-to-turn eight year old is obsessed with baseball… and has to go to bed without seeing a great majority fo these games.
8:46
Roach: I bet you didn’t know this, but Mookie Betts bowls. Definitely something that isn’t brought up every time he comes up to bat.
8:47
Jake Cave: Does Ray Chapman passing away from getting hit in the head qualify as a wild pitch? If not, I think it’s Stanley’s
8:47
Cory: You gotta give us a gory movie recommendation now, right?
8:47
Alex Sonty: Bloodthirsty
8:47
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a HBP counts!
8:47
Dan Szymborski: This has been a hitful game
8:48
Brooks: I guess the injury risk makes it not a “not sure it’s close” situation. Chance that Kyle Tucker has more WAR next five years, maybe 30%?
8:48
Alex Sonty: Tucker would be my second choice on the Astros. So many barrels.
8:48
ChuckNChino: Give me Kyle Tucker for next 5 years
8:48
Dan Szymborski: Jack Chesbro had a very famous one.
8:48
GoBarves: Tucker, Correa, Riley, Albies, all in the conversation. Certainly don’t think it’s that much of a slam dunk for Yordan
8:48
ChuckNChino: Gory: Squid games?
8:48
Alex Sonty: Haven’t started it yet. Will probably after the World Series is done.
8:49
Jake Cave: What are your guys predictions for the Series?
8:49
Alex Sonty: Low ratings
8:49
ChuckNChino: Is Joc Pederson walkup music, from ZZ Top? Pearl Necklace?
8:49
David Laurila: More productive player over next two seasons, Albies or Altuve?
8:49
Dan Szymborski: Yes on Pederson
8:50
Dan Szymborski: Chris Getz, of course, had the best walkup music.
8:50
Dan Szymborski:
8:50
pabravesfan: Ozzie’s contract needs to factor in too
8:50
Mrs. Phanatic: Albies. Let’s not forget his horrible start (I tried desperately to trade for him in fantasy) and he still hit 30 HR
8:50
GoBarves: Albies and definitely not biased at all 🙂
8:52
David Laurila: Chas McCormick quietly had a good season for the Astros.
8:52
5 Run Homer: I probably overrate Albies based on Vibes but he just rocks, he might be my pick on these rosters
8:52
Brooks: probably a chance for a pitcher like Max Fried or even Framber to out-WAR Yordan over the next few years.
8:52
Alex Sonty: Metrics are always gonna fall short on Fried
8:52
Dan Szymborski:
8:53
Dan Szymborski:
8:54
David Laurila: Soler’s leadoff home run is now the sixth-hardest-hit ball tonight, per Statcast. We’re still in the top of the second inning.
8:54
Jake Cave: About Fried’s metrics, why is that?
8:54
Alex Sonty: His contact rates are high for today’s age
8:55
Dan Szymborski: Framber’s giving Maldonado a workout tonight
8:55
Roach: An interesting what-if is if the Astros hadn’t selected Mark Appel as the #1 Overall Pick in 2013. Do they sign Kris Bryant? Or do they stay with pitching and select someone like Jon Gray?
Also, is Mark Appel the worst #1 overall pick due to the fact that he never made it to the pros?
8:55
Dan Szymborski: No way, he got higher than Brien Taylor
8:56
David Laurila: Wheels.
8:56
Dan Szymborski: Appel made a comeback this year, though it didn’t go super well
8:57
Joe: Weird sequence from Valdez. 4 straight terrible pitches
8:57
Alex Sonty: He doesn’t have a fourseam
8:57
Dan Szymborski: Eating gold is clearly performance enhancing
8:57
Lzfreak: This could get late early
8:57
Dan Szymborski: OH I THOUGHT YOU MEANT O/U 10 RUNS FROM THE STARTERS
8:58
Hugh Duffy: Fried pitches to contact. His goal is to induce weak contact. When he’s on, he’s largely successful at it. His average exit velocity was 86.5 mph.
8:58
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS knows about exit velocity and I assume Steamer is too
8:58
Dan Szymborski: Huge K
8:58
Dan Szymborski: that’s two bases loaded strandings already
8:59
Alex Sonty: I wasn’t castin’ shade on Fried. Was just saying that — yeah — because he pitches more to contact than so many, the surface numbers are a bit deceptive.
8:59
David Laurila: To the person who said that Mark Appel “never made it to the pros”… uh, no, He’s pitched six professional seasons.
9:00
Mr. 954: . What music do you put over games when you can’t stand the announcers?
9:00
Dan Szymborski: Nothing specific for me
9:00
Alex Sonty: Cannibal Corpse
9:00
Oddball Herrera: 86.5? Not impressed, my opponent exit velo in my beer league softball team is way lower
9:01
David Laurila: Speaking of beer, I just opened a Mountain Ale, by the Vermont-based Shed Brewery. It’s a brown ale.
9:01
DBRuns: Only one middle- to lower-market team has made the WS in 5 years (Tampa in 2020). Is there a concern about the growing divide between the haves and have nots? Feels like the “intellect” gap has significantly shrunk, and the “resources” gap is driving more and more outcomes.
9:01
Dan Szymborski: Whiel that’s a concern, you’re also choosing an exact number of years to make it look the most stark
But without a salary cap, the richest owners would just buy the best players and dominate!
25 Oct 2021
9:02
David Laurila: Per Baseball America’s JJ Cooper on Twitter: “Statcast has Albies at 4.12 from the right side on that infield single. He was booking.”
9:02
GoBarves: Monkless belgian dubbel for me
9:03
Dan Szymborski: The Astros/Dodgers combined are 6 of the last 10 WS teams. You don’t count the Rays and that just leaves 3 possibilities.
9:03
Alex Sonty: There’s more parity in baseball than we discuss. I said before the WC games that there were seven legit contenders in the postseason.
9:03
Dan Szymborski: And if you go six years you get Cleveland then two years of KC.
9:04
Dan Szymborski: Any team in the playoffs can get to the WS. The question should be if small market and mid market teams have trouble getting to the playoffs.
9:05
Dan Szymborski: There’s no Big Market + Smarts reason which made Tampa Bay or Milwaukee not advance to the CS this year
9:05
TuffyGoeswich: Is ZiPS still sprinkling in playoff performance into next year’s projections? Does a hot run like Yordan or Rosario move the needle that much?
9:05
Dan Szymborski: It does, it can make a difference at the margins. It did for Arozarena and Daniel Murphy
9:05
Quarantino Martinez: Even the musical taste is gory
9:06
GoBarves: Alex, is the parity in baseball due to salary cap or due to the randomness of baseball playoffs in SSS?
9:06
Alex Sonty: Baseball is just weird.
9:06
Alex Sonty: So much room for devilmagik
9:06
Jake Cave: When Billy Beane says “my shit doesn’t work in the postseason” in Moneyball, do you guys think that’s true? Are the playoffs too small of a sample size?
9:06
Dan Szymborski: Yes
9:07
Dan Szymborski: You’ll literally find nothing correlated with postseason excellence other than preseason excellence, once you take into consideration the top part of the roster gets a larger % of the playing time
9:07
Dan Szymborski: errr season excellence, not preseason excellence
9:07
Dan Szymborski: I love those liners when the camera can’t catch up
9:08
Quarantino Martinez: I know the HOU lineup is seen as superior, but Chas and Maldonado are a pretty lackluster 8-9 for a ws team in 2021
9:08
Alex Sonty: Chas is fine, Maldonado is there to catch and get the ball to the outfield.
9:08
Oddball Herrera: Trouble isn’t small market teams getting into the playoffs, trouble is doing it consistently. Money buys getting you there every year, while small market teams rotate and get a couple shots a decade
9:08
ChuckNChino: Mason Ale Works, Checkerboard Silver (IPA), over here.
9:08
GoBarves: Love the weirdness. Embrace it!
9:09
Dan Szymborski: Four of the ten winningest teams in the last decade are St. Louis (#2), Cleveland (#3), Tampa Bay (#6), and Oakland (#8)
9:09
5 Run Homer: From my experience as a hockey and baseball fan, “parity” usually just means the randomness of the postseason, and that’s a good thing
9:09
Alex Sonty: Parity in sports is usually code for rampant mediocrity.
9:09
Dan Szymborski: And yes, St. Louis is a small market.
9:09
Dan Szymborski: A very well-run small market team.
9:09
Jake Cave: Do you think teams should practice similar game environments to the postseason in the regular season? Like bringing in their ace to close out a close game or using more openers?
9:09
Dan Szymborski: You’re going to tire out your team by May doing that
9:10
ChuckNChino: how many WS between those winningest teams in the past decade?
9:10
Dan Szymborski: What does that have to do with anything?
9:10
Dan Szymborski: There’s one WS a year. It’s a volatile measure that you don’t use for this kind of analysis.
9:11
Dan Szymborski: Or at least, an argument why large market mumbo jumbo suddenly kicks in during the postseason.
9:11
Harmon Ripkowski: As long as you get to the postseason, you got a shot
9:12
Alex Sonty: And, again, everyone in the postseason has a shot like no other of the major US sports. Even the NHL is easier to handicap, series by series.
9:12
ChuckNChino: NHL used to reshuffle the playoffs after every round too
9:13
Dan Szymborski: There are as many appearance in the WS by Tampa teams as teams in NY over the last decade. But it’d be bizarre to use that as backing for an argument that it proves NY teams have it harder to make the WS.
Brooks: It’s absolutely good for MLB/”baseball” to have one or two really good, successful, dominant teams go deep in the playoffs consistently
9:14
Dan Szymborski: Lopez/Matthews/Baumer estimated that for MLB playoffs to have the same “best team advances” record as the NBA, you’d have to play best of 75 series.
9:14
ChuckNChino: is 10 years big enough sample size?
9:14
Dan Szymborski: No.
9:14
Mr. Hypothetical: If all the other AL teams decided to collude in secret against HOU beginning this offseason, how many wins could they shave off HOU in 2022?
9:14
Dan Szymborski: Not many.
9:14
Mrs. Phanatic: I’m down for a best of 75 series!
9:15
Dan Szymborski: Writing a gamer for Game 63 of a best of 75 sounds like some kind of weird hell fantasy.
9:15
Mrs. Phanatic: Would regular season baseball games be more watchable if they shows all of the high speed replays we’re getting tonight?
9:15
Alex Sonty: Do you not like baseball?
9:15
Alex Sonty: lol
9:16
Dan Szymborski: Well, that went out fast
9:16
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m *more* inclined to leave Valdez in now.
9:16
Mateo: Unreal that the homer occurs while Buck says “Valdez fighting to stay in the game”
9:16
Roach: Exit velocity of 112 mph…I think Duvall got all of that
9:17
Lzfreak: Is there any correlation between having an excellent bullpen and overperformance in the postseason?
9:17
Alex Sonty: I’ve wanted to look into this, but haven’t because when I have that question and I’m always doing football stuff. My guess is not as much as I want there to be.
9:17
5 Run Homer: Here’s the thing: dynasties rule and are fun as hell. Regular season parity is overrated
9:17
Alex Sonty: It totally depends on the sport.
9:18
Dan Szymborski: Soler’s HR down to *seventh* hardest hit this game.
9:18
Russ: Eddie Rosario is the greatest Brave trade since ___… (Mark Teixeria obviously excluded)
9:18
Roach: A-Rod agrees with you Dan, those pesky odd leads just aren’t that desirable.
9:18
PJ: They should make it the Crawford Sandbox, you know, for kids!
9:18
Whitty: Just make baseball a year round sport
9:18
Alex Sonty: If KBO pivoted to the winter, I’d play KBO DFS every night.
9:18
David Laurila: I did the chat for ALDS Game 1 between the Astros and White Sox, which was a 6-1 snoozefest that took 3:34 to play. I’m hoping this one turns into something better than that…
9:18
Russ: Is Adam Duvall the best Braves trade since Eddie Rosario?
9:19
ChuckNChino: too early to throw in the towel, imo
9:19
B’Ryce Hammer: how to win in two steps: 1. Chase the starter 2. Shred the pen
9:20
JamesD84: The big-money teams have a floor. The Yankees haven’t been below .519 since 1992. They’re well-run, but not that much better-run than anyone else. If the Mets didn’t have tons of money, with their management they’d be the Rockies.
9:20
Dan Szymborski: But how big a deal is it REALLY that small money teams are crappier crappy teams than big money teams when they’re crappy?
9:20
GoBarves: Dansby for Shelby Miller, Russ
9:21
Joe: the dansby Swanson trade
9:21
Dan Szymborski: And how do you make a system in which ensuring more parity isn’t just a player-to-team wealth transfer program?
9:21
Jake Cave: Mets and Rockies have the same number of WS appearances this century
9:21
Lzfreak: The Mets are already the Rockies in terms of WS appearances in the last 20 years
9:21
Molina Mo Problems: The real problem is that small market teams spend like they are independent league teams. A’s and Rays could afford higher salaries
9:21
Dan Szymborski: But why would they? MLB’s revenue sharing system doesn’t incentivize spending on your team.
9:22
Harmon Ripkowski: Just throwing out the Fred McGriff trade…
9:22
Dan Szymborski: Revenue sharing should be designed to normalize the marginal value of a win from market to market
9:23
sadtrombone: Yeah definitely too soon to throw in the towel. The Astros regularly put up 5-6 against every playoff team.
9:23
sadtrombone: But obviously it’s not looking good.
9:24
Dan Szymborski: TB gets no change in their national, merchandising, internet, or international revenue if they’re good. They see little attendance change from being good. The system doesn’t incentivize the Rays to spend.
9:25
Lzfreak: Salary cap and floor together seems like a win win
9:25
Alex Sonty: For football, it works. I think this is horrible for baseball. Contracts are really tricky and the ways rosters fluctuate. And the contracts would just get smaller, when I’d argue they aren’t large enough in terms of AAV.
9:25
Dan Szymborski: If the Rays got a lot more revenue in 95 win years than they normally get in 95 win seasons and a lot less revenue in 75 wins than they normally get in 75 win seasons, they’d actually have a financial incentive to put money into the team.
9:25
Dan Szymborski: We already have a soft salary cap
9:25
Alex Sonty: Yes
9:25
Dan Szymborski: And a salary floor just forces small market teams to overpay in their down cycles to no benefit.
9:26
Molina Mo Problems: then in this system, is anyone incentivized to spend? other than owners wanting W’s?
9:26
Alex Sonty: What crap teams do with a floor is overpay 2-3 win players like 4-6 win players and cheap it up everywhere else.
9:26
Dan Szymborski: Teams that see increased revenue from wins have a financial incentive.
9:27
Harmon Ripkowski: I keep reading TB, Dan, as tuberculosis…that probably wouldn’t change revenue either
9:27
Whitty: The Astros have won just one postseason game in which they trailed by 5+ runs: the 18 inning 2005 NLDS Game 4 against the Braves. (via Sarah Langs)
9:28
A: That Red Sox Astros game (I think game 3) was brutal
9:28
David Laurila: Didn’t have work obligations that day, so watched in a bar with friends. Blowout with Guinness.
9:28
Kevin Z.: They’re all big markets, and they’re all professional hitters
9:28
Lzfreak: The Rays are good though
9:28
Alex Sonty: Rays are damn good
9:29
sadtrombone: I agree that revenue sharing should make teams more competitive, and that should be the goal…but every proposal I’ve seen as an alternative to this system docks teams for not winning. And that creates some vicious cycles with payroll. If you can come up with a method that incentivizes winning without making it impossible for bad teams to get good I’d love to hear it.
9:29
Alex Sonty: The fanbase incentivizes winning
9:29
5 Run Homer: if you think free agency is broken now, just wait til you see it with a salary cap…
9:29
Alex Sonty: Such a mess
9:30
Dan Szymborski: I missed the 8th and 9th in that 2005 NLDS game
9:30
JamesD84: Minor leaguer John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander worked out pretty well in the short term for Detroit and in the long term for Atlanta.
9:31
David Laurila: Smoltz had a 5.68 ERA and nearly as many walks as strikeouts in Double-A when that trade was made. Alexander went 9-0, 1.53 with the Tigers after the trade.
9:31
ChuckNChino: TB is good and gonna be good for a long while too — what a pipeline of talent
9:31
Mateo: But what would the Rays be without Jeff Sullivan?
9:31
Dan Szymborski: I had plans that night, IIRC it was to go to Padonia Station and meet my friend Jay because Padonia Station had all you can eat nuclear wings for $9.99 during afternoon football.
9:32
Dan Szymborski: I went to go to the bathroom and take a shower after McCann’s homer in the 8th.
9:32
Dan Szymborski: SO I missed the comeback
9:32
Jake Cave: What % chance is there that a salary cap and/or floor are implemented in the CBA?
9:32
Alex Sonty: I don’t think the salary cap in MLB is worthy of a conversation, tbh, It’s a fun thought experiment. It’s an idea. But that’s all it is.
9:32
Dan Szymborski: 1%
9:33
Phil: Is this game out of hand enough that I can ask totally off-topic questions such as whether Franchy Cordero could still have a future?
9:33
David Laurila: You can, and my best guest is no. When Boston acquired Franchy, I suggested he was akin to a LHH Wily Mo Pena.
9:34
Phil: Doyle Alexander is one of those guys who was better in his 30s than his 20s, which seems pretty rare for a pitcher.
9:34
ChuckNChino: Morton hurt could get HOU back in this game
9:34
TStats: Oh no… not Morton
9:34
Molina Mo Problems: True or false – Rays trade Wander Franco before 2025 season
9:34
David Laurila: False.
9:35
Slew(Seattle): I hate injuries
9:37
Dan Szymborski: Even if you got players interested in a salary cap/floor, the numbers are really far apart
9:37
Dan Szymborski: The owners proposal of 100-180 million for luxury tax would have reduced total payrolls by about $150 million
9:37
Phil: But if TB has no incentive to be good, then why do they try so hard to be good without spending? Clearly there’s some incentive.
9:37
Dan Szymborski: They have an incentive, but a financial one means that when the choice is money or winning, money wins
9:38
Blue Morpho: Which team would benefit the most from the services of recent free agent Dave Cameron?
9:38
David Laurila: Team FanGraphs.
9:38
Dan Szymborski: If I won the lottery tomorrow, I’d still do my job.
9:38
Dan Szymborski: But you can’t deny that it would change my incentives about how to weigh my job
9:38
Dan Szymborski: The Rays want to win.
9:39
Dan Szymborski: But wanting to win and wanting to invest a lot of money in your team to win are two very different things
9:39
Greg: RIP for Padonia Station
9:39
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it changed names for a few years and now it’s like offices. 🙁
9:39
Mad Joe-Don: Dan, if I won the lottery I’d do your job too.
9:39
Russ: Just when I was hoping the Braves wouldn’t have to spend much on the bullpen today.
9:39
Kevin Z.: Michael Brantley, paid to hit
9:40
Russ: Wait what did I miss? Is Dave Cameron not with the Padres anymore?
9:40
Dan Szymborski: He left the team a few weeks ago
9:40
Jake Cave: What do you think the Rays will do with Wander long-term?
9:40
Dan Szymborski: Maybe get a small extension, but when he hits FA, he’ll be wearing another team’s uni
9:40
Shaquille Oatmeal: Is Jeff Sullivan still with the Rays?
9:40
Dan Szymborski: As far as I know he is
9:41
ChuckNChino: Anyone else surprised Shildt got canned from STL?
9:41
Dan Szymborski: I love the awkward first base tag
9:41
David Laurila: I think most people are. There certainly must be a good reason; whether we ever learn what it is, is anyone’s guess.
9:41
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there’s more to the story for sure.
9:42
Dan Szymborski: Now, it’s understandable that Shildt was never really the front office’s guy. But the team played a lot better under him that year than Matheny and it was the path of least resistance to keep him.
9:42
Dan Szymborski: But to fire him so suddenly right NOW? Something very odd has to have happened.
9:42
PJ: It seems like STL preferred Marmol anyway and had to make up a reason
9:43
Dan Szymborski: You don’t get special approval from MLB to announce a managerial firing during the playoffs just because you like another guy better
9:44
Billy: I love fangraphs its great to have and go to
9:44
Shaquille Oatmeal: I heard Schildt thought the Cardinals had the 2nd best fans in baseball.
9:45
Dan Szymborski: The Mintest.
9:45
Joe: I heard he didn’t like playing the right way.
9:45
Alex Sonty: lmao
9:45
Alex Sonty: Didn’t manage the right way
9:46
Alex Sonty: Won to much
9:46
GoBarves: Dans puns are why he’s an elite chat WAR guy
9:47
Mad Joe-Don: Dan’s CHAWS is off the charts.
9:47
ChuckNChino: yeah, and Cris Carter only catches touchdowns….
9:47
Alex Sonty: Between 1995 and 1999. Cris Carter had 65 TDs on 475 catches.
9:47
GoBarves: How many folks we have in the chat this evening? How does that compare to other chats?
9:48
Dan Szymborski: We’ve got 173 right now. A bit lighter compared to earlier ones. But Boston/New York games get more chatterers
9:48
Dan Szymborski: Last one I did we were between 200 and 300 most of the game
9:48
Dan Szymborski: These are simultaneous ones, not total.
9:49
BigDaddeh: What would you put the over/under at for players who played in the major leagues this year who aren’t watching more than half of tonight’s game? 50%?
9:49
Alex Sonty: If I were an MLB player, I wouldn’t watch.
9:49
Alex Sonty: As someone who uses baseball to make a living, I’ve missed four of the last five World Series.
9:50
Dan Szymborski: Usually, the number of unique readers is about 6-12 times that of our max at any one point
9:50
David Laurila: Speaking of the Boston games, getting to cover the ones played at Fenway will never get old. Fantastic experience.
9:50
Quarantino Martinez: Is there a tastier matchup than the Salt vs. Eggs Odorizzi?
9:50
GoBarves: You know you’re old an married when your wife and her friends get the TV to watch the bachelor and you’re relegated to streaming and chatting with FanGraphs strangers on your computer
9:51
Jeremy: Alex, aren’t most MLB players baseball junkies?
9:51
Dan Szymborski: I’d say no!
9:51
Alex Sonty: Barves, you need a mancave
9:51
Dan Szymborski: Some are. A *ton* aren’t.
9:51
Alex Sonty: I don’t think so, Jeremy
9:52
Jeremy: Is Jake Odorizzi the shortest strider in baseball?
9:52
David Laurila: FWIW: Odorizzi has always been fantastic to deal with media-wise. Both accommodating and thoughtful.
9:52
Cream: If you are Snitker, do you just have to use your “A” bullpen guys this game if the margin stays around 5 runs, or do you try to sneak one of the lesser guys in for an inning or two?
9:52
Alex Sonty: I like going to the back of the pen around now.
9:52
ChuckNChino: the Orioles players haven’t been paying attention to baseball since May.
9:53
Alex Sonty: The Astros mash LHPs and RHPs, but noting that they’re righty-heavy could be a clue.
9:53
Jeremy: Huh, ok. So, they mostly like playing and practicing, but other than that they’re mostly not watching baseball all the time?
9:53
Dan Szymborski: Players are very good at *playing* baseball. But it’s also a job and it’s a job that takes so much of your time
9:54
PJ: David, what made it great to cover games at Fenway?
9:54
David Laurila: It’s Fenway. Fantastic atmosphere.
9:54
Dan Szymborski: That a ton of players when they have free time away from playing baseball or traveling for baseball or training for baseball, want to focus on other things in their actual free time
9:54
Alex Sonty: I don’t know MLB players. Like I said, as a human with an MLB-related career, burnout is real. The sports therapists are probably telling them all to not look at a ball for some time if they don’t have to. But this is all conjecture.
9:55
Guest: Would you prefer to see your team sign Joc Pederson or Jorge Soler to play the OF?
9:55
Dan Szymborski: Soler’s upside is more fun
9:55
David Laurila: As someone who sees a lot more A.L. baseball than N.L. baseball, I knew Albies was fast, but I didn’t know he was this fast.
9:55
Guest: Is anyone else sick of Shohei Ohtani hype? He had an excellent season, yes, but by fWAR he was worth 8.1 WAR; we’ve seen comparable or better seasons many times recently in the past few years alone. So doesn’t it seem ridiculous to, say, give him an historic achievement award?
9:55
Alex Sonty: What he did was historic
9:56
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, ti’s the fact that he did as a hitter AND as a pitcher
9:56
Dan Szymborski: And not in the normal pitcher way of hitting 200/230/300 or something which is amazing for a pitcher but kinda sucks for normal hitters
9:56
GoBarves: Wow, could not disagree with Guest more
9:56
Quarantino Martinez: I can’t believe I just read an anti-Ohtani take in real life
9:56
B’Ryce Hammer: How could anyone ever get tired of the Shohei show? Dudes a monster, at the plate, on the bases, and on the mound.
9:57
BigDaddeh: I think in coming years the 2021 Ohtani season will become more historic, not less historic. Still seems hard to believe what he did
9:57
Jeremy: Now I wonder if this varies by sport? Do most NFL or NBA players watch a lot of their own sport as well as playing/practicing it? Or are they mostly the same as MLB players?
9:57
Alex Sonty: I would think NFL players take the four hours or so to watch the one big game and plenty of NBA players are junkies who play all year ’round.
9:57
Dan Szymborski: Baseball is 162 games. That’s a LOT of baseball
9:58
Guest: Re: Ohtani: But you could easily say that what Mike Trout did as a rookie is “historic” or what Miguel Cabrera did in winning the Triple Crown is “historic” or on and on. There are all sorts of “historic” achievements that don’t get recognized the same way as Ohtani does.
9:58
Dan Szymborski: But the Triple Crown is just being really good at specific things that are correlated with each other
9:59
ChuckNChino: Ohtani is amazing
9:59
David Laurila: A handful of spring trainings ago I asked an Angels coach who had the best raw power on the team. He said it was Trout, but Ohtani wasn’t far behind.
9:59
Mad Joe-Don: More Ohtani, please!
9:59
Dan Szymborski: It’s not just about the magnitude of awesomeness, but the VARIETY of it with things that aren’t correlated
9:59
Dan Szymborski: (and being an awesome MLB hitter and an awesome MLB pitcher aren’t correlated)
10:00
Jeremy: I feel like the closest recent historical comp to Ohtani is Bo Jackson. You have to be just an off-the-charts athlete to do what he’s doing, even compared to other off-the-charts athletes.
10:00
Dan Szymborski: If Haydn also invented constitutional government, that would be super impressive. We wouldn’t say “Why is that special, Mozart was a better composer.”
10:00
Alex Sonty: Was Deion the better two-sport performer?
10:01
GoBarves: I want to see full Ohtani with him playing RF most days. He was a very good OF in NPB!
10:01
Roland: I for one am with guest on this one. Ohtani is great, but there are plenty of great players. Don’t get myopic in devoting so much attention to him.
10:01
Joe: It amazes me that people baseball players can do it. MLB is a huge step up in games played. I don’t think any other sport comes close in terms of gradient between levels (though the NBA has a terrible grind too)
10:01
Alex Sonty: Sports are hard
10:01
B’Ryce Hammer: Ohtani! Ohtani! More Ohtani!
10:01
Hugh Duffy: Freddie Freeman talked in an interview yesterday about how in other years he tried to avoid the World Series, because he was so disappointed… and then would end up watching it anyway because he loves baseball and it’s the last baseball of the year.
10:01
ChuckNChino: who was the last two way MLB player? Honest question…
10:01
Alex Sonty: Brian Jordan?
10:02
Dan Szymborski: If you were a very good QB and a very good WR that would be super impressive, even if the very good QB isn’t as good as the best QB.
10:02
BigDaddeh: The most exciting thing in baseball ever would be Ohtani in a game 7 in an NL park with no DH. Where you could just bring him in for specific batters and then put him back in the outfield at various points throughout the game
10:02
Alex Sonty: Oh, wait. I read that as two-sport.
10:02
Bunk: Cabrera did something that didn’t happen in decades. What Ohtani did hasn’t been done in over 100 years and who knows if it will ever be done again.
10:02
Dan Szymborski: I just wanted an excuse to post this.
10:02
Dan Szymborski:
10:02
ChuckNChino: Bo Jackson was a beast — especially in TECMO BOWL
10:03
Cream: Brian Jordan is as bad of a broadcaster as he was good at baseball and football.
10:03
Guest: Your Haydn analogy is inapposite: we can objectively measure the total value a player contributes in a way that we cannot measure the “value” that someone contributes to society by writing a symphony or inventing a form of government. And when we *do* measure players’ value, we find many players who match or exceed Ohtani’s.
10:03
Dan Szymborski: You’re assuming that magnitude of value is the only impressive thing
10:03
Dan Szymborski: If I develop the ability to magically turn farts into tacos, it’s super impressive, even if the value to society is minimal.
10:04
Dan Szymborski: Why are we only allowed to be most impressed by what creates the most wins.
10:04
Dan Szymborski: If a pitcher came up and threw a 130 mph fastball but stunk otherwise, we can’t still be in awe of the fastball?
10:04
Alex Sonty: Didn’t you hear, Dan? The nerds are killing baseball.
10:05
Guest: If anyone awards you a “historic achievement award” for turning farts into tacos, I will quietly resign from humanity.
10:05
Asufool: The converse of turning tacos into farts is not impressive.
10:05
Phil: Your magic tacos would be ruined by your insisting that there’s only one possible ingredient list that counts as a taco.
10:06
Ryan: Would you eat a taco that was originally a fart?
10:06
Dan Szymborski: Everything was originally poo.
10:06
Dan Szymborski: Do we ahve to go into the circle of life?
10:06
Phil: As someone who’s interested in baseball history going back to the nineteenth century, I feel like what Ohtani has done in no way compares to Cabrera or even Trout. It’s really hard to think of a comparison. There have been pitchers who could hit for power, but SO had a .372 OBP. However, Haydn was actually pretty shrewd about politics, and Mozart was really really not, so. . .
10:06
David Laurila: Wes Ferrell slashed .347/.427/.533 with a 142 wRC+ over 150 plate appearances in 1935. Went 25-14, 3.52 on the mound.
10:07
Zachary: Well I showed up at the wrong time. Tacos. Poo. Dan, you’re kind of an idiot.
10:07
Dan Szymborski: We were talking about Ohtani!
10:07
TStats: 5 most attractive players in baseball right now I’ll go first: Treat Turner, Kevin Keirmaier, Kris Bryant, Cody Bellinger, Nolan Arenado
10:07
Dan Szymborski: I like Treat Turner as typos go
10:08
Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t it Bill James’ theory that the Hall committee was given Wes’s stats instead of Rick’s and got confused?
10:08
TStats: touche… idk how I did that one. But he is a treat 😉
10:09
ChuckNChino: ohtani is handsome
10:09
Alex Sonty: The fact that we have to go back and discover Wes Ferrell’s 1935 season should put the cherry on top of this conversation.
10:09
Dan Szymborski: oof
10:09
Dan Szymborski: Ferrell was the closest to Ohtani, he was a legitimately good offensive player, but Ohtanis’ hitting better
10:10
DLHughey: Re: ohtani, I’m just tired of every mediocre baseball writer spitting out some dumb stat on Twitter like “it’s the first time someone hit this much and pitched this well in the same month”. We get it, and we don’t need endless variations of the same sentiment regurgitated all the time. He is exceptional, but force feeding it to us like we’re idiots is tiresome
10:10
Dan Szymborski: Being awesome at hitting *and* pitching is hardly some obscure stat
10:10
The 6ix: Most of the known universe is rooting for the Braves right?
10:10
Dan Szymborski: Would I get shouted down if I noted that the Braves 2017 GM was suspended for longer than the Astros 2017 GM?
10:11
RTJ: is it insane that I think houston should have considered pinch hitting for maldonado ?
10:11
Dan Szymborski: no
10:11
Fire Ken Tremendous: I’m rooting for chaos. Chaos or comedy
10:11
Alex Sonty: DL, you’re acting as if one guy was really good/great at similar things. Ohtani was really good/great at something that requires two different people.
10:12
Kevin Z.: Do they ever talk about professional pitchers?
10:12
Alex Sonty: Dallas Keuchel would be him, amirite?
10:12
Quarantino Martinez: Eno wrote this morning that HOU’s biggest advantage is their ability to put the ball in play. Proving it there.
10:12
Mad Joe-Don: James did say that followed by the assertion that if it were true it would have been the first time the Veterans Committee ever looked at stats.
10:13
Phil: The Braves’ cheating is kind of nullified by how incompetent they were at it.
10:13
Guest: Dan, don’t willfully misconstrue DLHughey’s comments–we’ve all seen exactly the sort of obscure stats he’s talking about. (Ohtani is the first ever to hit a double and strikeout three while walking one on a Tuesday in a road game in May!!oneone!!?!)
10:13
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but nobody here is talking those
10:13
Alex Sonty: Quarantino, Astros K rate is insane
10:13
Dan Szymborski: I could argue that the Astros were fairly incompetent
10:13
LFC Mike: Otani ‘s season would be like Tom Brady throwing 30 TD passes and getting 10 sacks and a few interceptions on defense . A true 2 way superstar
10:13
David Laurila: In 1943, Washington’s Sammy Baugh threw 23 TD passes, had 11 interceptions, and led the NFL in punting.
10:13
Dan Szymborski: Imagine being such a high-tech, modern term and your secret plan involves BANGING A TRASH CAN
10:14
Dan Szymborski: team
10:14
Jake Cave: This feels like a moment where Altuve makes it 5-4
10:14
Jake Cave: Or not
10:14
DLHughey: That’s the point. Nobody else hits and pitches anywhere near this well. So the stats are pointless. The is Ruth territory, end of conversation. I don’t need to know that “this is the first time someone hit 13 HRs and struck out 33 guys in a month” (@codifybaseball)
10:14
Shodai: Bob Gibson played for the Harlem Globetrotters, does that count?
10:14
Dan Szymborski: OK then
10:15
Jeremy: That Wes Ferrell line is amazing, and even that doesn’t measure up to Ohtani, does it? Only 150 PA.
10:15
Dan Szymborski: Yes, it counts. Gibby was a very good baseball player
10:15
Phil: For 2022 only, ignoring money, which Gurriel brother would you rather have? Is it just always better to bet on the younger guy?
10:15
Alex Sonty: Lourdes might be better
10:15
Dan Szymborski: errr basketball player
10:15
Dan Szymborski: I mean, he was a very good baseball player too of course
10:15
Whitty: Speaking of two way players, Alex Verdugo hopes to be pitching again by 2023. Not in full Ohtani capacity, but relieve every now and again.
RHP Charlie Morton underwent X-rays tonight that revealed a right fibula fracture. He will miss the remainder of the World Series and is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2022.
27 Oct 2021
10:15
Whitty: According to the Braves, Charlie Morton suffered a right fibula fracture. That’s horrible
10:15
Whitty: Charlie Morton’s season is done
10:16
ChuckNChino: isn’t Gose pitching now — thought he hit triple digits
10:16
Dan Szymborski: He was in teh majors this year, though he’s still very wild
10:16
ChuckNChino: WHOA! Morton broken leg
10:16
GoBarves: But can we also respect him for pitching on a broken fibula? I broke mine skiing one year and it was quite painful
10:16
GoBarves: Wow, that’s awful
10:16
Guest: Goes can’t hit though.
10:18
Asufool: Can the Braves replace Morton on the roster?
10:18
Dan Szymborski: Yes
10:18
Dan Szymborski: But they have to get permission from the league which will obviously be given
10:18
5 Run Homer: Greg Maddux gonna get a start for the braves
10:19
Dan Szymborski: And he can’t play in the series after the World Series, which is fine since he’s out until the spring regardless and the Galaxy Series hasn’t started up yet.
10:19
Quarantino Martinez: There’s no replacing Morton (aside from literally)
10:19
Lzfreak: Is this the end of the line for Chuck?
10:19
Dan Szymborski: Nah
10:19
Dan Szymborski: Hey, he got the side out WITH the broken leg, so it follows he’d be even better with it healed!
10:20
Joe: So…. Drew Smyly? Toussaint?
10:20
Alex Sonty: Oh, God, Smyly’s barrel rate or Touki’s walk rate
10:20
The 6ix: Smoltz: the manager isn’t going to choose Morton’s replacement. The GM will. Idiot.
10:20
5 Run Homer: That’s such a bummer, Morton rules
10:20
Alex Sonty: Yeah, one of my favorite pitchers. Such a gamer.
10:20
Dan Szymborski: Smyly should have to go as Smiley and earn back the y’s
10:21
BigDaddeh: only thing more impressive than ohtani was canseco going 40/40, blowing his arm out in a pitching appearance, and knocking a ball over the fence with his head. but that wasn’t all in the same season
10:21
TStats: how does he earn the y’s dan
10:21
David Laurila: I was at the game Canseco pitched — it was at Fenway — and I left an inning before he came in, as the score was 12-1. Yes, I regret having done so.
10:21
Dan Szymborski: All Star appearances
10:21
Dan Szymborski: I guess it should be Smilee
10:21
Dan Szymborski: then Smiley.
10:21
TStats: guess his name is smilee now forever
10:21
Bunk: Morton seems like one of the more underrated players in the game. He’s been fun to watch.
10:21
ChuckNChino: Wasn’t Caneseco’s greatest gift was blowing the lid off PED’s?
Alex Sonty: Canseco’s greatest gift was being one of the most fun players in baseball for years
10:23
Dan Szymborski: Canseco totally pwned me on Twitter some years ago.
10:23
Dan Szymborski:
10:23
Shaquille Oatmeal: Hey Dan, just catching up, but nasa turned farts into tacos like a decade ago on the ISS.
10:23
Alex Sonty: hahaha
10:24
Dan Szymborski: I have a Canseco premium juice shirt.
10:24
JamesD84: Accomplished British neurologist Roger Bannister was the Ohtani of medical research and four-minute miles.
10:24
Alex Sonty: My wife half-understands baseball, but totally understands a pitcher just Ks a dude when the strut starts.
10:24
Alex Sonty: *Kd
10:24
Dan Szymborski: “I’m so sick of people talking about Ohtanis and Bannisters. I can eat a lot of hamburgers AND a lot of cheeseburgers.”
10:24
David Laurila: This is one of those game that feels like a bigger deficit than it actually is. The Astros are a few big swings away from making it interesting, if not coming from behind to win.
10:24
BigDaddeh: when canseco farts it turns into one of those taco bell double decker tacos
10:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry, Alex and David, my presence has started to turn this into weird chat.
10:25
Alex Sonty: “So sick of this Ohtani talk. I can drive and talk on the phone good enough to not die yet”
10:25
Quarantino Martinez: “What I speak out of my mouth is the truth. It burns like fire.” — Jose Canseco
10:25
GoBarves: Agreed, David. This game is far from over
10:25
Alex Sonty: Soler and Duvall framed this chat
10:26
Dan Szymborski: If you really want weird, I did a live chat with Bowden in 2012 for ESPN for the ASG and I didn’t turn down my normal oddness one bit.
10:26
Joe: The Ohtani of academia is either Herb Simon or Tom Lehrer
10:26
Alex Sonty: I’m a professional gambler who taught political science for 12 years.
10:27
Guest: Dan, I made a stew on Sunday. Was it chili, and if not, where did I go wrong: beef, dried Chiles, chicken stock, onions, oregano, cinnamon, allspice
Logan: With Rays’ general pitching strategy, the proliferation of “openers,” the injuries to Morton and Kershaw, the dead arm of Scherzer, and so on, this might be the worst post-season for starters of all time. Will we ever see a performance like Bumgarner in 2014 or Schilling/Johnson in 2001 again?
10:28
Alex Sonty: I’m in an empty movie theater reading a newspaper on this one, but I hope so.
10:28
Mtazek: Losing Morton is tough, but not to worry–I can pick up all his innings.
10:28
Dan Szymborski:
10:29
Bunk: We’re only two seasons removed from Strasburg’s postseason
10:29
Jeremy: Now I want some research on which WS teams in history had the worst starting pitching staffs.
10:29
Dan Szymborski: On it
10:29
Guest: Charlie Morton staying in to get three outs, two on strikeouts, with a broken leg – more or less impressive than the bloody sock?
10:30
Jeremy: Opening bid: 2008 Phillies.
10:30
Alex Sonty: I’m a fan of the three-man rotation for the World Series, stretching SPs to 80-100 pitches, depending on gameflow. But this is purely aesthetic and not related to optimal baseball strategery.
10:31
Kevin Z.: Greg Maddux, professional pitcher
10:31
Alex Sonty: Derek Holland, literally a professional pitcher.
10:31
ChuckNChino: Cinci had a bad rotation, right?
10:31
Alex Sonty: Did they?
10:31
Alex Sonty: Gray was great, Castillo was unlucky.
10:31
Joe: Yeah whatever happened to the Rangers “develop guys who can go 7” theory? Never seemed to catch on.
10:31
David Laurila: About a month ago, Kyle Boddy said in a FanGraphs Audio episode that the Reds were working to get starters deeper into game in the minors.
Dan Szymborski: Yankees 1996 starters had a 4.96 ERA
10:33
David Laurila: BTW: If you don’t listen to FanGraphs Audio, we usually have some really good guests. Last week was Andrew Miller, and this Friday will feature a Royals pitcher.
10:33
Dan Szymborski: 4.79 ERA for 2006 Cardinals starters may be worse
10:33
ChuckNChino: this is FanGraphs — we dont talk ERA
10:34
Dan Szymborski: We don’t have splits that far back
10:35
BigDaddeh: would have been fun to see the dogers-astros world series so that they could show a split screen of dusty and mark prior and remind us that dusty would regularly have prior throw 130 pitches per start
10:35
Alex Sonty: Prior avg’d 113+ pitches per start in 2003.
10:35
ChuckNChino: I think the Reds of 1975 had the worst staff
10:35
Dan Szymborski: The rotation had a 3.62 ERA which was right about a 100 ERA+ for them
10:36
ChuckNChino: that Dusty/Prior comment just made my shoulder hurt
10:36
Dan Szymborski: Cardinals starters were a 93 ERA+
10:36
GoBarves: Huuuuuge, out of Mintest
10:37
Quarantino Martinez: My cat’s already had dinner but is meowing at me again. What does she want?
10:37
Alex Sonty: You to go to sleep, so she can eat your face.
10:37
Roach: Remember when Mark Prior was seen as having perfect mechanics?
10:37
Alex Sonty: Because he did
10:37
Dan Szymborski: 97 ERA+ for 2015 KC starters
10:37
David Laurila: Re the ’75 Reds, Gullet and Nolan were pretty good, and Billingham was a fantastic postseason pitcher.
10:37
ChuckNChino: speaking of cats — Dan, update please
10:37
Dan Szymborski: None have visited me this game!
10:37
Alex Sonty: Steve Stone could tell he was pitching hurt in 2004 because he couldn’t throw strikes.
10:38
Alex Sonty: Prior, that is
10:38
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t been upstairs since like 6 PM, so I have no idea what cats are doing. I haven’t heard any shrieking violence though
10:38
Alex Sonty: But Prior’s mechanics were like art.
10:38
Roach: That inverted W seems to put a lot of stress in the elbow.
10:38
Jeremy: 1987 Twins looks like a pretty bad starting staff for a WS team too. Running a 4.47 ERA back in 1987 is not very good.
10:39
Dan Szymborski:
10:39
Guest: Oct 8, 2019 — The 1959 World Series was the first in which a starting pitcher — for both teams — failed to toss a complete game. Dodgers relief pitcher
10:39
B: What the Astros did 4 years ago was bad, but am I missing something? Why is it still an issue? Even beyond that, it confuses me when cheating without being caught is often seen as a savvy and smart by the same ppl who can’t seem to get over cheating and being caught
10:40
Dan Szymborski: People dont’ like cheating
10:40
Logan: Do you think teams’ increased stolen base rate in the post-season presages any increase in stolen base attempts for 2022?
10:40
Dan Szymborski: No
10:40
David Laurila: Switched to seltzer water after an early-inning adult beverage, but may need to go back to beer if I hope to survive the rest of this game/chat. We need some Astros action to liven things up.
10:40
Oddball Herrera: Also people like being mad
10:40
Alex Sonty: The Astros players didn’t really get punished
10:40
Dan Szymborski: I really want a taco or a burrito now, but I live in suburban Ohio, so ain’t nothing delivering now
10:41
Dan Szymborski: I wish I hadn’t made a taco analogy
10:41
BigDaddeh: if someone pulled a jack morris in 2021 and pitched 10 innings in the world series, would we celebrate it or would we think it was unwise given the # of times through the order?
10:41
Dan Szymborski: Oh, we’d celebrate it
10:41
Alex Sonty: I ate a chicken burrito for dinner I rule
10:41
Jake Cave: If they got punished, would it be less of a discussion now?
10:41
Dan Szymborski: If they were in a position to get punished, we might never have gotten an investigation
10:41
Lily: Just don’t pull a “Jack Morris in 2021” in any year.
10:41
Dan Szymborski: Or any off-field Jack Morris
10:42
David Laurila: Babe Ruth threw a 14-inning complete-game win in the World Series.
10:43
Dan Szymborski: My favorite Ruth fun fact is that he mas a higher career pitching postseason WPA than hitting postseason WPA.
10:45
Dan Szymborski: That game was the highest WPA game in postseason history
10:45
Dan Szymborski: Art Nehf, of all people, has two of the top 10
10:45
Dan Szymborski: (among pitchers)
10:46
Alex Sonty: Talkin about the one-run game where everyone was left on base?
10:46
Roach: Babe Ruth was also caught stealing to end the WS
10:46
BigDaddeh: in fangraphs existed in 1920, contrarian posters would be talking about how what he was doing wasn’t as impressive as home run baker
10:46
David Laurila: I just bounced over to Twitter to mention that Lindy McDaniel had a really good career. You’re excused if you’re not familiar with him.
10:46
Art Nehf: You bet your balls I do
10:46
Guest: I am of the theory that Astros players didn’t get punished because MLB knew full well other orgs were doing it and how do you pretend that wasn’t happening and punish the Astros players at the same time. MLB split the baby to make it go away, which makes no one happy (because halving babies is frowned upon)
10:47
David Laurila: This is not an unreasonable take.
10:47
Guest: Do you find it surprising that James Dansby Swanson apparently voluntarily goes by Dansby, rather than James or JD?
10:47
RTJ: Here’s a Random Hypothetical: If you were in charge of a new expansion MLB team and could choose any MLB team’s current manager to start developing your new team, who you going with?
10:47
Alex Sonty: I don’t know, but Ricky Renteria is on the list
10:47
Dan Szymborski: I like Dansby Swanson, it sounds like a Great Gatsby character
10:47
David Laurila: A.J. Hinch.
10:47
Dan Szymborski: Nowhere near as weird as David Jonathan “JD” Drew
10:48
Kate Mitchell: No one will ever match the Old Hoss “pitch every inning of a World Series sweep” though.
10:48
Alex Sonty: Hinch could be the answer. I found him a bit erratic with his lineups this year, but if there’s a time to go nuts….
10:48
Dan Szymborski: It’s more impressive that he tweets 120 years after his death
10:49
David Laurila: Christy Mathewson throwing three shutouts in six days is the best World Series pitching performance ever.
10:50
Alex Sonty: Doesn’t this all just saying that hitting kinda sucked?
10:51
BigDaddeh: didn’t oil can boyd admit to using crack every day for the 86 season? he didn’t pitch great during the WS that year, but all things considered thats pretty impressive
10:51
Alex Sonty: Regularly getting owned the ninth time through the order
10:51
Dan Szymborski: If he really did it every day, it is pretty impressive
10:51
ChuckNChino: Agreed with Mathewson — Kofax on short rest was pretty good too.
10:51
The 6ix: How do you think those pitchers of yesteryear would fare in today’s game?
10:51
Dan Szymborski: They’d largely be used like pitchers are today
10:51
Dan Szymborski: pitchers go max effort now
10:52
Jeremy: If Correa leaves, do the Astros try Bregman at SS next year?
10:52
Dan Szymborski: No
10:52
David Laurila: There’s an Oil Can Boyd autobiography that came out a few years ago that I haven’t read, and I really need to.
10:53
Guest: Would you really run Koufax out there for 5 and 2/3 innings and then go to, e.g., Joe Kelly so Koufax *gasp* doesn’t have to face the top of the order a third time?
10:53
Alex Sonty: I’d keep Koufax in until his arm fell off
10:53
Dan Szymborski: But you can’t truly transport the context of the times they pitched in
10:53
Dan Szymborski: That’s kinda what the Dodgers did!
10:53
Alex Sonty: lol
10:53
Alex Sonty: touche
10:54
ChuckNChino: pretty sure the LAD did keep kofax in till his arm fell off
10:54
Alex Sonty: These days, you don’t get multiple shots at the crown. When you’r in, you’re in and this could always be the best shot you got. A true ace of aces is better than who I wanna bring in from the pen. I believe that.
10:55
Steve Nebraska: Catching up, but don’t blame dusty for prior… Blame… Marcus Giles.
10:56
Dan Szymborski: I loved the horrified look on that blonde guy’s face after the check swing
10:56
RTJ: is there ever going to be a better way to define a “swing” ?
10:56
Dan Szymborski: The Judge Potter Check Swing
10:56
David Laurila: OK. Opened a second beer. Going with a Granola Brown Ale, from the Black Hog Brewing Co. this time. Meanwhile, Go Astros. We need to make this game.
10:57
GoBarves: What year did they change what constituted a check swing?
10:57
Jeremy: Koufax beat the Twins 2-0 on 2 days rest in game 7 in 1965. The Dodgers also had Drysdale available on normal rest. I’ve always wondered if Drysdale was upset at being passed over for Koufax.
10:57
Dan Szymborski: I don’t thin kthere was ever a definition change
10:57
Dan Szymborski: it was more a cultural change in ump calls
10:57
Dan Szymborski: But I could be wrong
10:57
GoBarves: I remember seeing old games where batters fully swung through but because they slowed down halfway it was a check swing
10:57
Dan Szymborski: Ah, yes, that was a cultural change
10:57
GoBarves: OK, OK, enough with the “best when all the hitters were white and bad” takes. Best pitching performance in the last 40 years? Randy/Schilling in ’01 has to be up there?
10:57
Alex Sonty: I think it’s Johnson/Schilling, unless I’m missing something from the Phillies or White Sox
10:58
Dan Szymborski: There’s a hypothesis going around that umps started calling more check swings as strikes when slow motion replays started to become available
10:58
Dan Szymborski: and you could see just how far the bat sometimes got
10:58
BigDaddeh: taco bell advertisement behind homeplate – they see u dan
10:58
Kate Mitchell: I’ve got a Dreamsicle Ale from Backwoods Brewing Company. Tastes like the real thing! Also, there’s not really a rulebook definition of a swing at all.
10:58
ChuckNChino: Mad Bum?
10:59
Dan Szymborski: The NCAA has an actual rule
10:59
Dan Szymborski: An attempt by the batter to stop the forward motion of the bat while swinging, which puts the batter in jeopardy of a strike being called. The half swing shall be called a strike if the barrel head of the bat passes the batter’s front hip. This does not apply to a bunt attempt when the batter pulls the bat back.
10:59
Jeremy: Ok, now I’m thirsty again. Had an Omnipollo Noa Pecan Mud Cake earlier. Whatever I have next won’t be as good.
10:59
Phil: Pedro in game 5 against Cleveland, ’99, was the best situational pitching performance I’ve ever seen.
10:59
BigDaddeh: it changed when umpires realized we were there to see them, not the players
10:59
Lzfreak: I’m partial to Bumgarner
11:00
Skyline Chili: We have 24/7 delivery Mr. Szymborski. FYI
11:01
ChuckNChino: Im going with Zombie of Dankness, double IPA — but its only 8PM here.
11:01
Lzfreak: David, who you got in Michigan vs Michigan St?
11:01
Kate Mitchell: Speaking of going to see the umps: Anyone got a favorite ump? Mine’s Pat Hoberg
11:01
Dan Szymborski: Joe West, I like a good heel
11:01
Alex Sonty: Bumgarner wasn’t that long ago and guys as tough and stubborn as him do exist.
11:02
GoBarves: The other part of Dan’s CHWAR – he loves a heel and a hot taek
11:02
Hugh Duffy: Joe West umpired a really good playoff game. Really turned up his game behind the plate for his final game.
11:02
Kate Mitchell: Joe West’s music isn’t half bad. Out at Home is genuinely well-done comedy country.
11:02
ChuckNChino: Ump: Doug Harvey, please
11:02
Phil: Jim Joyce has it all. Facial hair, attitude, accuracy.
11:03
Jeremy: Going with another dessert beer: Cold Garden Cakeface.
11:03
Cowboy Joe West: Thanks Mr Szymborski all my CDs are available at your local flea market.
11:03
Jeremy: +1 for Jim Joyce.
11:03
Quarantino Martinez: That’s pretty crazy that there’s never been a leadoff home run in WS history. Though I guess that’s only 117 games?
11:04
Jeremy: I seem to recall an old FG post showing that the youngest umps tend to be the best at calling balls and strikes?
11:04
David Laurila: Derek Lowe threw 88 pitches in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS versus the Yankees, then came back on two days rest to allow one run and one hit over six innings in Game 7. Most-underrated pitching performance in recent postseason history IMO.
11:05
Dan Szymborski: Nto sure if we did something, but I remember this piece.
ChuckNChino: Joyce won me over after he tearfully apologized about missing The Call
11:05
Lzfreak: I’ve always wanted Maton to rhyme with “baton”
11:05
GoBarves: Oooo that’s a good one. Loved 2000s Derek Lowe
11:06
Phil: Yes, you’re right about Lowe. A victim of the wins rule (ND in game 4) plus overshadowed by the offense in g7.
11:06
Russ: Ah yes, Derek Lowe, former Braves great.
11:06
Alex Sonty: Eddie Rosario with the professional hit
11:07
GoBarves: Glavine in 95 was awesome too, but properly rated as WS MVP
11:07
Dan Szymborski: If framing is a skill for catchers, hypnotizing Eric Gregg counts as a skill for pitchers
11:07
RTJ: love Smoltz’s insight on too many strike outs make it hard to win. Brilliant
11:08
Dan Szymborski: I admit to being surprised that the scoring just kinda stopped
11:08
David Laurila: We might be setting a FanGraphs postseason-game-chat record for least commentary on the game itself, but man… this is anything but a compelling barnburner.
11:09
Dan Szymborski: Our content rate is similar to game leverage index, I think
11:09
Dan Szymborski: At least our off topic is mostly baseball related
11:09
Alex Sonty: I can’t tell you the last time I went to a game and talked about the game. I was legit, like, 12.
11:10
ChuckNChino: HOU never got started on the scoring
11:10
LFC Mike: that stat is highly correlated to Dan being on the chat
11:10
Dan Szymborski: heh
11:11
Dan Szymborski: We did ALCS Game 3 this year and after it went 9-0, I think we mostly just shared recipes
11:11
Portlandus: My biggest gripe with the MLB schedule is that 10+ teams are basically eliminated from playoff contention after 1/4 of the season. Any way to address this?
11:11
Alex Sonty: They should try winning more.
11:11
BigDaddeh: related to both comments – my 12 year old is downstairs playing MLB the show on xbox, and every once in a while wanders up to check on the store and then leaves uninterested upon hearing 5-1
11:11
Dan Szymborski: Here’s the problem – if you have everyone contending much later into the season, you’ll also have fewer great teams
11:12
Dan Szymborski: a team in which everyone contends all year is also won where playoff teams are 86-76
11:12
Dan Szymborski: one
11:12
ChuckNChino: was really hoping for choas
11:12
Quarantino Martinez: Is it weird that MLB can place a digital ad on the pitcher’s mound, all convincingly angled and lit? We are living in an age of miracles!
11:12
Shaquille Oatmeal: At least people don’t watch the World Series for the commercials and 5th inning show.
11:12
Alex Sonty: fine with the ads
11:13
Jeremy: Here in Canada we have a choice of two different tv announcing crews. The Canadian equivalent of ESPN seems to have drafted in their own crew, rather than just rebroadcasting the Fox feed like they did in earlier rounds. Unfortunately, the Canadian crew is just as boring as the Fox crew.
11:13
David Laurila: I wonder if Canada’s French-language broadcasters are there? Have seen them at past Series.
11:13
ChuckNChino: was really hoping for chaos in the playoffs — but nope
11:13
Jon: I’m team more ads on the field if it means less commercials
11:13
Alex Sonty: These results are pretty choatic
11:13
Roach: If you’re the Braves, that had to be a promising Luke Jackson performance
11:14
Jake Cave: Would you trade a “boring” six games for a great Game 7?
11:14
Alex Sonty: I’d rather a great five or six games
11:14
Don: I get these guys were taught the game in a certain way and it’s hard to shake that stuff, but do we really have to constantly hear all this talk about how players are just one dimensional now and back in the day they could do it all? I doubt teams back then would’ve dominated teams now. Hell, they probably would’ve lost more to teams with these pitching, hitting, and defensive approaches. I doubt they were as well rounded then as they think they were too. Let’s get back to ground outs to second and bunts? I did really enjoy those formative years of baseball though, Rant over.
11:14
David Laurila: Rants are allowed.
11:14
Dan Szymborski: Depends if I have to write a gamer for some of them!
11:14
Alex Sonty: A+ rant
11:15
RTJ: IMO the MLB playoff structure is just about right. As a fan of European soccer, the only thing missing from MLB is a relegation structure to keep it more interesting
11:15
Dan Szymborski: The thing about Smoltz is that he was a Hall of Famer for pitching. He has a lot to contribute when he talks inside baseball things and the psychology/experience of being a pitcher.
11:15
Dan Szymborski: Problem is, he also thinks he was a Hall of Famer for complaining.
11:15
Alex Sonty: The relegation talk needs to stop, imo. This is a professional league with lots at stake
11:16
Portlandus: That’s fair, but I think it’s an issue at both extremes – really good and bad/really bad teams are pretty much locked in place past June or so
11:16
David Laurila: Apropos of nothing, my hair was as long as Stanek’s until I got it cut a few weeks ago,
11:16
Dan Szymborski: But here’s the thing: would the O’s future be any better if they had to pretend they were competitive into June before finishing 25 games back instead of 50?
11:16
Portlandus: would like to see the best team in a bad division have some incentive to keep their foot on the gas in the second half
11:16
Fire Ken Tremendous: There have been 4 Ryne’s in MLB history and half of them played this year. We’re living through Peak Ryne!
11:17
Dan Szymborski: Again, if there was a win component in revenue sharing…
11:17
TStats: Stanek is cool, splitty guys are totally underappreciated. An effective splitter is hard to throw/design.
11:18
Alex Sonty: Teams know who they are in all sports around 30-40% of the way through the season. On the field of play, they bust ass. What the FO/org does is up to them. I don’t think baseball is better when a 20-40 team trades a prospect for a star.
11:18
Dan Szymborski: Better band? Fastball or the Banana Splits
11:18
Alex Sonty: Slayer
11:18
Dan Szymborski: THERES NO PITCH CALLED A SLAYER
11:18
Alex Sonty: NOT YET
11:19
Dan Szymborski: Hey, i wonder if I can get the neural network to give me baseball themed band names
11:19
Dan Szymborski: I’ve done band names generally
11:19
Jeremy: I don’t have any Francophone sports channels in my cable package, so I can’t check if there is a French language WS broadcast here in Canada.
11:19
David Laurila: Alain Usereau — good guy based on my interactions with him — is/was Canada’s primary French-language broadcaster for post-season games.
11:19
Roach: I bet that’s what Mariano Rivera called his cutter
11:19
Kevin Z.: It’s getting late late
11:20
JamesD84: Since there’s so much randomness in who wins the WS, I’d like to see some way to reward teams for having the best regular-season record. MLS has a separate trophy for the team with the best regular-season record, and teams & fans do seem to care about it, though less than about the playoff championship. Not sure how you would start something from scratch that everyone would care about, though.
11:20
Alex Sonty: A six-team playoff where that brackets like the NFL is a way.
11:20
Alex Sonty: I don’t like it, but it’s the logical next step
11:20
Guest: Why is being a professional a reason to not have relegation? Football all over Europe is professional, has relegation.
11:20
Alex Sonty: Because no one would pay to see relegated teams
11:21
Guest: People paid to see minor league teams
11:21
Alex Sonty: how much?
11:22
Dan Szymborski: Meh, there need to be more baseball-themed band names to get the neural network on the right track
11:22
Alex Sonty: Look, I get it. We want more excitement. But when the Sox were awful, I didn’t go to games at my convenience. I went to games at my convenience when good teams were coming to town. Take away good teams from coming to town and the crowds shrink. Also, ESPN gets a national schedule in advance.
11:23
Dan Szymborski: Even if a good idea, the logistics would be an absolute nightmare
11:23
Phil: Most of my smart British friends seem to believe that relegation will eventually be eliminated from the Premier League. There’s just too much money at stake. (But because of that money it’s effectively impossible for a team like Man United to be relegated anyway–they’ll just buy enough players to stay in the middle of the league if they’re not good enough to win it.)
11:23
Kate Mitchell: The franchise model means relegation is simply impossible. Teams own the league, they’d never set up a system that could see their revenue obliterated. Look at clubs like Parma — some relegated teams never, ever recover.
11:23
The 6ix: Owners won’t tolerate the revenue hit if relegated.
11:23
Oddball Herrera: Who would pay to Own a team that could be relegated?
11:23
RTJ: Definitely several pros/cons to relegation system. Just trading one issue for a different one, in reality
11:23
Dan: People earlier talking about cribbing people’s throws. I definitely threw like post yips chuck knoblack when I played second.
11:24
LFC Mike: Josie from jJosie and the Pussycats broke up the Banana Splits . A real Yoko Ono.
11:24
Kevin Z.: modern baseball, rookie of the year
11:24
TStats: My friend throws a demon pitch that I know call a slayer for Alex’s sake. Puts his fingertips on the horseshoe and throws it like a fast ball, no spin with fastball velo (he hits 80 so maybe 75 on this demon pitch). Bottom falls right out of it, scares the crap out of me when we play catch
11:24
Alex Sonty: Sounds like it reigns in blood
11:24
David Laurila: I’m highly skeptical that relegation will go away in the UK. The sport is built upon it, throughout all levels.
11:24
Hugh Duffy: Relegation doesn’t work here because it’s not like you can just create a baseball team and work your way into MLB.
11:24
Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’ll call them the Banana Split-Fingered Fastballs to see if it gets the network on the right track too
11:25
Dan Szymborski: Also Puig Destroyer, Yo La Tengo
11:25
Portlandus: Split the season in half, records reset to 0-0 at the All-Star break. Winning a division in both halves earns a bye.
11:25
Alex Sonty: Win the 1st half split and just dog it the 2nd half?
11:25
David Laurila: The most “pure” baseball postseason was 8 (and then 10) teams in each league and the pennant winners meeting in the World Series. Not saying that was “better,” but it did take away a lot of the randomness.
11:26
Alex Sonty: Well, it rewarded the regular season.
11:26
Kate Mitchell: The Super League drama was the first attempt at doing away with traditional league structures. It won’t be the last.
11:26
David Laurila: True, but the backlash was quick and severe.
11:26
Alex Sonty: With 30 teams, divisions make that sloppy, so four is fine.
11:27
Marco: Also, 2 leagues with 2 8 team divisions, 154 regular season, balanced sched (16 against in division teams, 7 outside), 4 wildcards per league playing a best of three, winners play division winners in best of 5, lcs and ws 7 game.
11:27
TStats: Alex, that was very very forced pun. What makes the pitch scarier is he throws a knuckleball too. And the fastball runs A LOT more than expected from his over arm delievery. With the MASSIVE 12-6 to boot
11:27
Oddball Herrera: I think all sports leagues should have a regular season belt that gets passed around WWE style if you beat the team that has it, so even in September Orioles fans can get a chuckle out of maybe stealing the belt from a good team
11:27
Alex Sonty: NBA does this
11:27
Shaquille Oatmeal: In Japan, the better team starts with a 1-0 lead in the series. Seems more fair than “home field advantage” to the team that won 30 more games than the 2nd wild card.
11:28
Dan Szymborski: It’s trying, but it just can’t get there.
Kevin Z.: 6-4-3 Double Play would be a good band name
11:29
Jeremy: Guess we’ll have to come up with our own baseball-themed band names.
11:29
Fire Ken Tremendous: Peter Buck’s The Baseball Project
11:29
Dan Szymborski: I’ve had better luck generating baseball clickbait headlines
11:29
Dan Szymborski:
11:31
Shaquille Oatmeal: I like the WWE idea, but let me counter with a WCW idea. 3 baseball fields under a steel cage.
11:31
Phil: In the UK, the Premier League champion is actually the regular season champion. Then there are the various Cups, which are seeded by reg. season results but are considered separate competitions.
11:31
Guest: haha, the clickbait bot for football learned to just say Kaepernick as often as possible a long time ago
11:31
Dan Szymborski: I lose it every time I get to “Billy Hamilton is Eating Live Mice Right Now”
11:31
Alex Sonty: All these relegation ideas sound very NIT to me.
11:32
GoBarves: Some of those are amazing, Dan
11:32
Dan Szymborski: I had a few of the articles written!
11:32
Jeremy: Spin Doctors is secretly a baseball band name.
11:32
BigDaddeh: Gotta give Bernie Williams’ band some love
11:32
David Laurila: Bernie Williams may well be a better guitar player than he was a baseball player. Dead serious in saying that.
11:33
LFC Mike: relegation is part of the culture of European soccer. Lower tier teams would never accept being in the a certain tier forever. There are parachute payments to teams that are relegated so they don’t slide down one or two tiers after relegation.
11:34
Dan Szymborski: Since we’re on a commercial, I had the neural network write the plot to the FanGraphs movie a while back.
11:34
Dan Szymborski:
11:35
ChuckNChino: I’d pay to see The Three Finger Browns
11:35
David Laurila: There was a Connecticut-based band called “The Del Crandalls” in the 1990s.
11:35
RH: I would love to see a promotion/relegation system with a regional component in college sports. Vandy should be playing baseball at the highest level but not football.
11:35
Dan Szymborski: I’d buy their albums just from the band name!
11:35
John Thacker: The funny thing about English soccer is that now grumpy old timers complain about no one caring about the FA Cup as much these days.
11:35
GoBarves: lol Dinklage as Sporer!
11:35
ChuckNChino: Bernie Williams is a legit guitarist.
11:35
Dan Szymborski: None of the casting choices are great. Sasso for me is probably fine, but Mark Addy would be better.
11:36
Dan Szymborski: Who would make a good David? Ben Whishaw?
11:36
Jeremy: Exit Velocity would be a good baseball band name.
11:36
Shaquille Oatmeal: Thinking about Bernie in retirement made me think of Dave Roberts’ immediate retirement hobby: wine. He started “Red Stitch Wine”. How did they have the opportunity to go “Red Lace Wine” and miss it. Sexy and baseball related.
11:37
Jeremy: Wow, Altuve.
11:37
John Thacker: Trying to simultaneously solve complaints of “more teams should be in the playoffs”, “the playoffs should be less random”, and “the playoffs shouldn’t run into November” is close to impossible, at least without shortening the regular season. I really think that the current system is a local maximum for satisfying different people.
11:37
Shaquille Oatmeal: The Will to Win is a gWAR cover band.
11:37
GoBarves: TOOTBLAN as an EDM DJ
11:38
David Laurila: The Isotopes Punk Rock Baseball Club has a good song called “The Ballad of Rey Ordonez.”
11:39
Dan Szymborski:
11:40
ChuckNChino: or TINSTAAP
11:40
ChuckNChino: The LOOGY’s
11:41
Shaquille Oatmeal: I watched Ken Burns’ “Baseball” 1 time a decade ago, and still sing that awful “Hey, Joe, whaddya know, Jumpin Joe Dimaggio” song at least twice a week. Please no new baseball songs. I beg thee.
11:42
Fez: Who’s the highest 20-80 scale player in this game? What’s the number?
11:42
David Laurila: Barbara Manning & San Francisco Seals did a great cover of that song.
11:42
Jeremy: Now I want to hear about the best *obscure* baseball-related songs. No picking “Centerfield”, “Piazza, New York Catcher”, “Paradise By the Dashboard Light”, or “Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio”. I will also accept songs that sound like they are about baseball, but actually aren’t.
11:42
Quarantino Martinez: That Stanek bellyflop was amazing
11:44
RTJ: well that was a bit of a mess
11:44
GoBarves: haha 37.5 EV on that hit for Soler
11:44
Dan Szymborski: What about Tony Conigliaro?
11:44
Dan Szymborski:
11:45
Portlandus: I think the goal should be “fewer low-impact regular season games”
11:45
Alex Sonty: This is far, but there are orgs who also DGAF
11:45
David Laurila: “Obscure” is relative, but IMO the best baseball song is “Past Time” by the Baseball Project.
11:45
Jeremy: What was Stanek trying to accomplish with that…dive?
11:45
Alex Sonty: lol
11:45
Jeremy: Opening bid for “songs that sound like they are about baseball, but actually aren’t”:
11:45
Dan Szymborski: And that’s 6-1
11:45
Dan Szymborski: Charles Ives was a HUGE baseball fan
11:45
Dan Szymborski:
11:45
ChuckNChino: Stanek had to re-direct, thinking he was covering 1st…
11:46
Ghost of Ebbets Field: Mickey Owens had the most famous WS passed ball.
11:46
Quarantino Martinez: He looked like a little kid who’s technically playing a sport but is really just in it for rolling around in the grass.
11:46
David Laurila: That was a great slide.
11:46
Blue Morpho: Love the aggressive send there
11:46
Alex Sonty: More like MANsby
11:47
Kate Mitchell: If you want *obscure* there’s also this Mono Puff song (one of the They Might Be Giants guys’ solo project) about Bill “Spaceman” Lee
ChuckNChino: Wonder if Charles is related to Burl Ives?
11:49
Dan Szymborski: No idea
11:49
RTJ: that’s the one!
11:50
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been meaning to track it down since a SABR presentation about it
11:50
Dan Szymborski: about Ives
11:50
Jeremy: “Past Time” is like “Talkin’ Baseball” if “Talkin’ Baseball” was good. (Note: I say this as someone who listened to Terry Cashman’s album over and over as a kid.)
11:51
Jeremy: As a huge TMBG fan, I can’t believe I didn’t know that Mono Puff did a song about Bill Lee!
11:51
Phil: Don’t think so. Burl Ives was a country boy, Charles was old money.
11:51
Dan Szymborski: I want to see the reply on that jump
11:51
Dan Szymborski: replay
11:52
Jeremy: What was Duvall trying to accomplish with that…leap?
11:52
Dan Szymborski: I was trying to figure out what line he was taking
11:52
David Laurila: I think it was back in the ALDS Game 1 Astros-White Sox chat when I opined that Yordan Alvarez might be the most-underrated hitter in the game. Something like that.
11:52
Alex Sonty: Yordan poked it 400+ feet
11:52
Dan Szymborski: it’s fun watching him swing when he gets extended
11:53
Alex Sonty: Yordan is a special hitter
11:53
Kate Mitchell: To answer the earlier question on who the best player in this game is on a 20-80 scale, it has to be Yordan, right? I think he’s close to that Soto-Acuña-Tatís superstar tier
11:53
ChuckNChino: Come on ‘Stros, make a game of this!
11:53
Alex Sonty: Yordan has 70 power, right?
11:53
Alex Sonty: 65 raw power in 2019
11:54
Hugh Duffy: Duvall was trying to jump to catch it. Misplayed it.
11:54
ChuckNChino: Duvall has to lose the ball, right?
11:54
John Thacker: Speaking of music, whoever picks the end of inning bumper music for Fox is a huge jam band fan. Althea, Eyes of the World, Ain’t Life Grand, Stash, etc. Happened last year as well, all this Dead, Phish, Widespread Panic, etc.
11:54
Fez: That’s some real feel for the barrel and strength
11:55
Jeremy: All respect to Yordan as a hitter, but Correa’s the best player in this game, right? Or are we asking about a single tool on the 20-80 scale?
11:55
Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately for Astros, runs for outs is an insufficient trade at this point
11:55
ChuckNChino: Freeman might have a say in best player
11:55
Dan Szymborski: I love Freeman, but I’d take Correa
11:56
LFC Mike: What is a great baseball moment in a non baseball movie? I’m not taking about the ending of the Adam Sandler classic Blended.. but like the Yankee Stadium scene in Finding Forrester with Sean Connery.
11:56
Dan Szymborski: It feels like Correa’s been around forever, but this is JUST his age 26 season!
11:56
Alex Sonty: Naked Gun
11:56
Dan Szymborski: Yeah
11:56
ChuckNChino: +naked gun
11:56
Dan Szymborski: Naked GUn is the obvious winner
11:56
David Laurila: I remain of the opinion that Kiké Hernandez should have been charged with an error when he dropped Yordan Alvarez’s long fly ball in ALCS Game 6. A ball off the heel of the glove when the outfielder is no longer running hard to make a catch isn’t a double.
11:57
Fire Ken Tremendous: OH NO GURRIEL
11:57
David Laurila: Horrible slide.
11:57
RTJ: oof that slide
11:57
Quarantino Martinez: Naked Gun wins, though the Town’s Fenway heist is strong
11:57
Shaquille Oatmeal: TOOTBLAN
11:57
Blue Morpho: Sticky dirt slide
11:57
ChuckNChino: love to see Correa with the old English D next year…
11:57
Quarantino Martinez: 4 run game, Yuli
11:58
Fez: Thanks, Kate!
11:58
Kate Mitchell: Belly flop!
11:58
Shaquille Oatmeal: That was right in front of him the whole way. How do you not throw on the brakes when t bounced RIGHT TO HIM!
11:58
Dan Szymborski: I just realized who Yuli reminds me of: Jeremy Renner crossed with a troll doll
11:59
Fez: I don’t see Yordan being able to be a 70 overall with his defensive limitations. Power for sure. What was David Ortiz overall? Seems like a ceiling of sorts for Yordan (not bad to have that at all though, of course).
11:59
Alex Sonty: Fair. Correa the best all-around, Yordan with the best tool.
12:00
Farmer Ted: Jonathan Richman did. Song about Walter Johnson
12:01
Farmer Ted: Meant to include a link:
12:01
Kate Mitchell: I mean, that’s a HOF ceiling. I think any Yordan fan would happily take that. Speaking of which, what does a “legit” ring do for Altuve’s Cooperstown bid?
12:01
Alex Sonty: Tuve has work to do, but he probably does it to get there
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Wait I TOTALLY forgot about Jonathan Coulton’s ABSOLUTELY 100% HISTORICALLY CORRECT song.
12:02
Dan Szymborski:
12:03
GoBarves: So Correa probably had the best year, but no one is concerned that his previous three year combined WAR didn’t equal this year’s?
12:03
Jeremy: JONATHAN COULTON FOR THE WIN
12:03
Alex Sonty: He’s really young
12:03
ChuckNChino: Pretty sure Jay Jaffe had an article on Altuve and HOF
12:04
Hugh Duffy: For some reason, I don’t feel like this should really be a 4+ hour game.
12:04
Shaquille Oatmeal: We just gonna forget about Bregman as best on the field? I know he’s been injured, but his last full season was worth more fWAR than Ohtani in 2021.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: People should certainly not be subjected to me for four hours.
12:04
Alex Sonty: Statcast looks down on Bregman a bit.
12:05
Hugh Duffy: We knew what we were in for Dan. We volunteered.
12:05
Shaquille Oatmeal: Better chance at being the 2nd* Ray to make HOF: Longo or Wander?
12:05
Alex Sonty: Longo is an interesting one.
12:05
Alex Sonty: I’m with Jaffe that 3Bs get shafted
12:06
Dan Szymborski: It’s a mid-defensive spectrum thing I think
12:06
LFC Mike: Who will have best peak…. Bergman of Tucker?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: 2B and CF too
12:06
Alex Sonty: Def Tucker
12:06
Hugh Duffy: It is amazing to me that Scott Rolen is still not in the HOF.
12:06
Alex Sonty: silly
12:06
ChuckNChino: or Lou Whitaker — fell of the ballot in one year. smdh
12:06
ChuckNChino: Now or never Stro’s
12:06
David Laurila: There are still over 100 people in this chat. Being past midnight ET with a not-close game, that’s pretty impressive. Great to have all of you sticking with us.
12:07
Alex Sonty: Seriously, salud, all!
12:07
LFC Mike: 4 plus hours and I lose the ability to type and proofread
12:07
Alex Sonty: Paul Sporer would say I don’t have that ability at noon
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Grich should be a HoFer
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Edmonds
12:07
Dan Szymborski: Lofton
12:08
Alex Sonty: Kevin Brown
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I’m curious as to Beltran’s support now
12:08
Lily: Whitaker getting snubbed twice was shameful.
12:08
Alex Sonty: I’m not against TJ and Kaat. Not for it, just wouldn’t fight an advocate.
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Morris in before Whitaker is weird as hell
12:09
ChuckNChino: its been a very eclectic chat!
12:09
Dan Szymborski: (Or Morris at all, but I’m happy not having that yearly fight)
12:09
Kate Mitchell: Jim McCormick is the real biggest snub
12:09
Shaquille Oatmeal: Bregman had 16 fWAR in 2 years. “Definitely Tucker” seems a bit premature.
12:09
Alex Sonty: 18.9 in his last 1975 PAs
12:09
David Laurila: Th list of things that have gone well for the Astros tonight is a short one.
12:10
GoBarves: I’m on that take, Alex. Tucker>Bregman
12:10
GoBarves: Forgot just how awesome Lofton in the 90s was. He was so fun
12:11
LFC Mike: Yaddy certified HOF.. Posey?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: There are only 3 players in the top 10 in JAWS that are eligible for the Hall, not connected to PEDs, but not in the Hall
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Grich, Lofton, and Rolen. And I think Rolen gets in now
12:11
ChuckNChino: Posey gotta be close after this past year, Dan
12:11
TJ177: If Schilling stopped talking after 2004 he’d be in the HOF right now without question
12:11
David Laurila: In all likelihood, yes.
12:11
Quarantino Martinez: Minoso should be in hall
12:11
Dan Szymborski: I’m almost certainly a Posey vote.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: OK, no need for the hedge.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: I’m a Posey vote.
12:12
Alex Sonty: In 2005, ESPN polled players for their most hated. #1 was AJ, #2 was Schilling. There was no secret of who is.
12:12
Alex Sonty: Minoso for sure
12:13
Alex Sonty: I’m on the Posey wagon and Mauer
12:13
Harmon Ripkowski: Minoso YES!
12:13
Alex Sonty: It’s borderline racial ignorance to not have Minoso in
12:13
David Laurila: Without Castro’s big hit in Boston, the Astros might not be playing tonight.
12:13
Alex Sonty: Not racist per se, just ignorant
12:13
Dan Szymborski: There was an SI poll around that time that had 10% picking Babe Ruth as the greatest living player
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I still don’t get why Minoso isn’t in
12:14
Harmon Ripkowski: He’s possibly up this year with the Golden Age commitee, right? And Allen and Oliva (never really understood Wills really strong advocacy…)
12:14
Quarantino Martinez: “ignorance” is kind
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I think the Hall of Fame lost an excuse for any snub anywhere when they indicted BOWIE FREAKING KUHN
12:16
Jeremy: I didn’t realize the HoF could issue indictments. 😉
12:16
Dan Szymborski: dangit!
12:16
Alex Sonty: Minnie letting me wear his WS ring
12:16
Dan Szymborski: WOW
12:16
Dan Szymborski: That’s awesome Alex!
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I never got to meet him. And you wore the ring!
12:16
ChuckNChino: +1 Alex on the Minnie photo! WOW
12:16
ChuckNChino: Lost me with Harold Baines getting in….
12:16
Alex Sonty: He was my best friend’s wedding. His dad had a boat next to his at the harbor
12:17
David Laurila: The rest of the Series will almost assuredly feature better games than tonight’s,
12:17
Alex Sonty: I asked to see the ring on his hand and he just handed it to me
12:17
Quarantino Martinez: What a photo!
12:17
Jeremy: Wow Alex!
12:17
Dan Szymborski: How did you resist hanging out with him ALL THE TIME?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Smoltz: ALL the games are must win in the World Series
12:18
Alex Sonty: We talked a solid half hour. He smoked a cigar outside and I just chain smoked with him. This was July 2012.
12:18
Bronnt: I’m not usually one to complain about long games, but given how little happened in this game, it’s insane it took over four hours to play.
12:19
ChuckNChino: G1 to ATL
12:19
LFC Mike: Careers are made of seasons and for some post seasons . with no post season appearances for Posey (assume) is he HOF material? Trout HOF 100%.. might not ever see the post season again
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Well, thank you all for coming tonight and hanging out with us!
12:19
Alex Sonty: Thanks, everyone!
12:19
David Laurila: Thanks, all. Have a good evening.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: You guys made a not-too-exciting game more fun and hopefully we did the same for you!
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Dan Szymborski: G’evening!
Alex Sonty: Happy World Series Day, y’alls!
David Laurila: Greetings, all. About to move a load of laundry, then back to chat.
First player you think of? I’ll go Hunter Pence
Minnie letting me wear his WS ring