FG on Fox: On the Mets and Going For It

On Monday, the Mets made the first significant free agent signing of the offseason, bringing Michael Cuddyer to New York on a two year, $21 million contract. Because the Rockies anticipated Cuddyer’s market and made him a qualifying offer, the deal also cost the Mets the 15th pick in next summer’s draft, so this move exchanges potential future value for a short-term upgrade. In other words, this is a win-now move, and signifies that the Mets are probably set on improving their 2015 roster, even if it comes at the cost of sacrificing assets that may prove valuable in the long run.

This seems like a bit of a weird decision, given that the team finished 79-83 last year, and perhaps more importantly, finished 17 games out of first place in the National League East. 17 games is not a trivial gap to overcome, and so the Mets don’t necessarily seem to be in a traditional position that incentivizes future-for-present talent swaps. However, I think it’s worth considering that perhaps the Mets position is perhaps more advantageous than it looks at first glance.

The primary variable in whether a team’s status as a potential contender is, of course, that teams own talent level. On this test, the Mets seem to fall a bit short at the moment; the Steamer projections hosted at FanGraphs currently have the team pegged for approximately +27 WAR, roughly the same as the Cubs and Diamondbacks, and well behind the +41 WAR that the Nationals are currently projected to produce. A 14 win gap might be slightly less intimidating than a 17 win gap, but either way, it seems nearly impossible that the Mets could improve enough this winter to match up with the best team in their division.

But being a contender is no longer just about being the best team in your division. We just had a World Series where neither team accomplished that; in fact, neither reigning league champion even won 90 games. MLB’s current playoff system offers some potentially lucrative rewards for being a respectable runner-up, and thanks to the non-Nationals teams in the NL East, it is not entirely crazy to think that the Mets might be able to aspire to that more realistic goal.

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