Flamethrowing Torch

Last week, Dave previewed the important Dodgers-Diamondbacks series by discussing the three great pitching matchups on tap. Dan Haren vs. Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb vs. Chad Billingsley, and Randy Johnson vs. Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Big Unit was scratched from yesterday’s start, paving the way for rookie Max Scherzer to step in. Scherzer, the 24-yr old flamethrowing prospect, had success earlier in the season, however, the return of Doug Davis relegated him to the bullpen, before he was eventually sent back to AAA when the Snakes needed a more durable reliever.

Johnson used to be a flamethrower, as well, arguably staking claim as the best left-handed power pitcher of all time, but it seems the torch of heat may be passing to Scherzer. Now, I’m not saying Max is a hall of famer or anything along those lines, but he definitely deserves a spot in this Diamondbacks rotation. Personal affinities aside—Max and I speak routinely through e-mail as he is very into sabermetrics—his mere 13 appearances this year, 4 of which were starts, have produced a WPA/LI of 0.44. Mark Buehrle’s is 0.50, as is John Lannan’s. Joe Blanton, the supposed answer to the Phillies rotation troubles, has been worth just 0.37 wins above an average pitcher.

In 39 innings this season, he has surrendered just 32 hits, only two of which are home runs. His controllable skills only get better, as his 45 strikeouts and 15 walks translate to a 10.38 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Of balls put in play, an exorbitant 31.2% have been line drives, which means his .316 BABIP is much lower perhaps than what should be expected, but this will not persist and can be expected to even out at some point.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he throws his 94.4 mph fastball 72.3% of the time, with 7.01 horizontal inches of movement and 8.76 vertical inches. His slider is thrown 15% of the time, with the changeup accounting for most of the leftover. His changeup looks particularly effective, too, as it comes in almost a full 10 mph slower, at 84.8 mph. Additionally, he has essentially sustained the horizontal movement from his fastball, but lessened the vertical movement, meaning it will not “rise” as much as his heater. Whether in the rotation or temporarily working out of the bullpen, Scherzer needs to be in the big leagues. If he has the capability to miss bats like he does at the major league level, being in AAA serves no purpose.

To read my interview with Max, in which he explains his relationship with sabermetrics and analysis, and how it pertains to him as a pitcher, click here.