Found: Verlander’s Velocity

I love the BIS pitch data statistics that are available here on FanGraphs. One of the first things we noticed using that data this season was that Justin Verlander’s fastball disappeared in April. He was throwing 91-92 instead of his usual 94-95, and his performance suffered as a result. He walked 18 and struck out just 20 batters in his six April starts, leading to a 6.50 ERA. His struggles were a major reason why Detroit failed to live up to expectations early on.

As the calender rolled into May, however, Verlander’s velocity started to pick up. After averaging just a 91.9 MPH fastball during his first three starts of the season, his fastball averaged 93.6 MPH during May, and his performance improved right along with the velocity spike. In 39 innings in May, he walked 13 and struck out 24 while posting a 3.92 ERA. It still wasn’t classic Verlander, but it was at least encouraging.

Enter June, and it’s safe to say that Verlander is back. His average fastball is now 94.5 MPH, sixth best in baseball during this month, and the results are what we expected from a guy who looked like an emerging ace last season. He’s walked 10 and struck out 28 batters in 27 1/3 innings, dominating hitters and holding them to a .575 OPS.

Whether it was just a tired arm phase or a mechanical tweak, Verlander’s fastball is back, and he’s pitching like the Tigers thought he would heading into the year. Detroit fans have to be happy to have their ace back to pitching like one, and it’s even more comforting that there’s a verifiable explanation for the improvement. For all the talk of guys learning how to pitch without their best stuff, Justin Verlander is clearly a better pitcher when he’s throwing 95 instead of 92.