Four Questions Facing Dodgers After World Series Loss
For the second straight year, the Dodgers’ season has ended in a World Series appearance but not a World Series victory. While the Red Sox’ four-games-to-one win might show up in history as something of a blowout, the Dodgers were one key hit away from victory in Game One. If they’d also held onto a fifth-inning lead in Game Two and an eighth-inning lead in Game Four, we’d be talking about a great Dodgers team finally winning it all.
It didn’t happen that way, though — and it wasn’t because the Red Sox wanted it more or because the Dodgers’ analytics failed them. Sometimes baseball happens. It happened to the Dodgers, and in the end, the more deserving team won.
Win or lose, the Dodgers were going to face a lot of questions this offseason. Here are the four most-pressing questions in need of an answer.
Bring Back Clayton Kershaw?
Clayton Kershaw could make the decision easy for everyone by not opting out of the two years and $65 million he has left on his contract. There are plenty of concerns with Kershaw: his velocity has declined and he’s relying on his slider more than ever. The future Hall of Famer will begin next season at 31 years old, hardly an elder, but certainly past his prime. Despite those concerns, Kershaw started 31 games in 2018 and pitched 191.1 innings, including the postseason. His ERA and FIP, including the playoffs, were 2.96, and 3.31, respectively. Those are both very good numbers along with his 3.6 WAR from the regular season. Among pending free-agent pitchers, only Patrick Corbin had a better season — and Kershaw showed he could still get outs at a high rate with declining velocity.
The Dodgers rotation figures to include emerging star Walker Buehler, a 39-year-old Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, and maybe some combination of reliever/starters Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, and Alex Wood. Hyun-Jin Ryu is also a free agent, leaving the Dodgers with a huge innings gap to make up. Bringing back Kershaw by adding a couple years to his current deal, maybe at a lower average annual value, would seem to make sense for a Hall of Fame-level pitcher who still provides a good amount of value, playing for the only team by which he’s been employed since becoming a pro.
Change Course in the Bullpen?
The Dodgers entered the 2017 season with Kenley Jansen and a bunch of question marks. The bullpen held up okay during the season, but midseason acquisitions Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson — along with a great season from non-roster free agent Brandon Morrow and converted starter Kenta Maeda — led to a great playoff run with a sub-three ERA. The Dodgers opted for the same course this season, but there was no Brandon Morrow in the group. Tom Koehler was hurt. Scott Alexander had a decent season, but wasn’t trusted come playoff time. Ross Stripling faded at the end of the year. Ryan Madson pitched well down the stretch, but didn’t get the job done in the World Series. Dylan Floro was solid and Pedro Baez had a good season, but in the playoffs it looked more like the Mattingly-led version of the Dodgers that depended on Kenley Jansen and little else.
The cost of a decent reliever in free agency is high, and those relievers don’t provide much more guarantee of success than what the Dodgers have received from lower-profile options in recent years.. The smart play is to keep doing the same thing, but there is going to be pressure to commit some of that gigantic payroll to the perception of security.
Go After Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Even with Clayton Kershaw on the books and all the arbitration raises, the Dodgers payroll is something close to $180 million right now. Including competitive-balance tax payments, the Dodgers averaged $306 million per year from 2014 through the 2017 season. Going under the competitive-balance tax threshold this season reset the team’s tax figure, lowering the potential taxes they’d face in 2019 if they once again crossed the threshold. If the team added another $100 million in 2019 salaries during free agency, they would still end up close to what they paid in the four years prior to this one. The team could bring back Kershaw, choose between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and still go get more help without breaking the bank.
The Dodgers figure to get Corey Seager back at full strength next season, but the club could move Seager to second base after his elbow surgery and keep Machado at shortstop. The team has a ton of options in the outfield between Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Matt Kemp, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, and Chris Taylor, as well as prospect Alex Verdugo. That said, none of those options are immovable or appear to be future stars. Hernandez and Taylor can play multiple positions, Bellinger is still probably a better fit at first base, and Puig (and Kemp) will be free agents after next season. There is a spot for Bryce Harper, or maybe for A.J. Pollock at a considerably reduced rate.
What to Do at Catcher?
Over the last four seasons, Yasmani Grandal ranks third among MLB catchers with 11.2 WAR, trailing only Buster Posey and J.T. Realmuto. With another October from Hell, Grandal again saw himself lose his starting job in the playoffs. Despite those struggles, Grandal’s performance in the regular season should net him a healthy multi-year deal. He will also net the Dodgers a draft pick at the end of the second round if he signs elsewhere. (The Dodgers would forfeit their second-round pick for signing a free agent with the qualifying offer attached.) The Dodgers have two of the best catching prospects in baseball sitting in the minors in Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, as well as Austin Barnes.
Bringing back Grandal seems unlikely, but so does turning the catching duties over to Ruiz or Smith, even if Barnes does provide some cover. In addition to Grandal, Wilson Ramos will also likely receive a multi-year deal. That leaves potential one-year options like Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Brian McCann, and Kurt Suzuki. None are great, though McCann is a left-handed to potentially balance Barnes’ righty bat. It looks to be a transition year for the Dodgers at catcher, which might provide them with an incentive to seek more certainty elsewhere.
The Dodgers just finished a really good season, even if they fell short of their ultimate goal. They have the players and resources to reach the playoffs again next season, but they do have to answer a few questions about the direction of their team.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Can’t the Dodgers flip one of either Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith (with something else thrown in ) for Realmuto?
Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball, and it’s not really close at all.
So, no, they won’t be able to acquire baseball’s best catcher (with 2 years of control still) for that cheap.
Oh I agree, it’ll take a lot greater package than my shorthand statement. The Marlins are the worst org in MLB, I’m pretty sure JT wants out, and I think the Dodgers have the pieces to make this trade.
1 of them would have to be included in a deal but neither is a headliner. As a 2nd best piece sure.
The Marlins turned down a deal that was headlined by Victor Robles during the season. They’re looking for something similar to the haul they got for Yelich.
My prediction: They’ll place a truly unattainable price on Realmuto until he goes through an extended slump, at which point they’ll panic and sell on him when he’s at his lowest in value.
I’m not sure the Dodgers are willing to wait for that to happen, and something tells me that if they spend a lot for a catcher they’ll want one who frames better than Realmuto anyway.
They could have Cervelli for one of Ruiz or Smith straight up, fwiw.
I’m sure they could, but that is definitely not happening.
A possible lineup vs RHP:
LF Joc Pederson/Puig/Harper
SS Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
RF Bryce Harper/Puig
1B Max Muncy/Bellinger
CF Cody Bellinger
2B Chris Taylor/Hernandez/Muncy
C Black hole TBD
A possible lineup vs LHP:
2B Chris Taylor/Hernandez
SS Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
RF Bryce Harper
1B David Freese/Muncy
CF Hernandez/Bellinger/Taylor
LF Puig/Bellinger/Hernandez/Taylor
C Black hole TBD
P Clayton Kershaw
P Walker Buehler
P Rich Hill
P Kenta Maeda
P Alex Wood/Ross Stripling/Urias/Ryu?
I mean, that’s a very good team, right? This implies you trade Kemp and eat like, $18 million of his contract or something and pick up the $5.5 million net option on Freese.
Everyone kinda assumes that Harper is a better fit because of Seager, but I think if you look at the way the lineups shake out, Machado might actually work better, assuming Seager is willing to move to 2B.
vs. RHP
LF Joc Pederson
2B Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
SS Manny Machado
1B Max Muncy
CF Cody Bellinger
RF Yasiel Puig
C Black Hole TBD
vs LHP
LF Chris Taylor/Bellinger/Hernandez
2B Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
SS Manny Machado
1B David Freese/Muncy
CF Enrique Hernandez/Bellinger/Taylor
RF Puig/Hernandez/Taylor
C Black Hole TBD
Unless you’re trading Joc Pederson or Puig, having Machado allows Puig to stay in RF and play every day against RHP. Getting Harper is a little tougher because in order to have your optimal lineup against RHP, you need Bellinger, Muncy, Pederson, Harper, Seager and Puig in the lineup (reverse splits) and it’s basically impossible to do that unless you sacrifice a lot of defense with Muncy at 2B, Harper in CF and Bellinger at 1B.
That said, these are amazing first world problems to have, and that could be an insanely good group so who cares about small defensive downgrades.
I dont see them signing Harper. AJ Pollock is a really good fit and someone who the FO has wanted in the past
See that’s where I disagree, I don’t see how adding another like, 10-15% above average injury prone outfielder fits with this team. Since his first full year in 2013 Pollock has averaged 101 games per year, and that was during his peak years, age wise. He’ll also play all of next year at 31, so who knows how much his value from speed/defense will still be there moving forward.
Pollock seems like a prime risk/reward candidate, to me he’s a better fit on someone like Colorado where it’s a lower monetary risk for some slight upside if he stays healthy all year and doesn’t lose more speed and defense than he has every year the past few years. A low OBP outfielder doesn’t really fit with this front office’s plan either.
For context, Pollock’s UZR/150 2013-2016 was 7.4, 9.4, 9.4, 31.4 (maybe weirdness there), then 2017-2018 it’s been 1.7 and -1.6
Stole 39 bases in 157 games in 15, 4 in 12 games in 2016, 20 in 112 games 2017 and 13 in 113 games in 2018. Not great trends there.
Pollocks injuries have been pretty freaky so thats not something i would worry about. But yes i agree he is risky since his production has been declining since 2015. He shouldn’t have a crazy market so i do see some value there. Basically i think well see Kershaw and 2-3 mid level signings as opposed to 2 whales in Kershaw/Harper
I think Kershaw gets something like 4 years $110-120. He gets basically a 2 year extension at around the same average annual value of the last contract, and he’ll still be young enough at the end of that deal to get one more “big” contract, obviously depending on his health and performance.
I don’t think Kershaw getting the same salary (there’s almost no chance he gets another 7 years or makes even more money per year) for an extra couple years would really make much difference for the Dodgers financial planning or ability to sign one of Harper/Machado.
Their major 2020 commitments right now by CBT AAV are
1) Kershaw – $30.714 million
2) Kenley Jansen – $16 million
3) Justin Turner – $16 million (final year)
4) Kenta Maeda – $3.125 million (plus bonuses)
They will have TONS of available payroll going forward. Seager will be in his 2nd year of arbitration, Bellinger will be 1st year, Taylor 2nd year, Joc is a free agent, Alex Wood will be a free agent…Urias won’t even have reached arbitration yet, same with Buehler. Cots Contracts estimates $125 million in available payroll under the CBT tax threshold for 2020 (before arb guys), and $173 million in 2021.
Obviously these things change, and roster turnover is always a lot more severe than people think it will be, but there is a TON of room under the “cap” going forward, and they can go over for two years without the more severe penalties coming in.
To me, it seems obvious they cleared the decks as much as possible in 2018 while still trying to win, in order to get one of Machado or Harper. 26 year old potential superstars are almost never available in free agency, if you’re ever going to use the money and roster flexibility to get a big name player, this is the time.
True they are set up very well payroll wise long term. And still have a good farm system. I think its silly people have started to say their window closed.
I think it feels like this group of guys window might have closed. 6 of the 25 guys on the WS roster could be free agents- Kershaw, Ryu, Madson, Machado, Dozier, and Grandal. Free agents after next year are Kemp, Hill, Freese, Puig, and Wood. So there’s going to be a lot of retooling here in the next 2 years- after a good bit of retooling after last year.
LOL. Sorry but they lost several guys off last years roster, are losing several more after this year, and even more after next year. I’m not saying the Dodgers won’t contend, but this group of guys that they’ve had for 5-6 years aren’t going to be together for much longer at all. It’s definitely a changing of the guard for them. I mean just go look at 2016 roster. For guys with at least 100 abs or 30 ips- only 12 of those guys will be back for sure next year. 3 more of those guys could be gone after next year in Puig, Hill, and Wood. Then 4 more after 2020- Turner, Pederson, Hernandez, and Baez(and Kershaw if he reups his deal). In 2 years- here’s the only guys guaranteed to be back with LA if LA wants them- Seager, Jansen, Maeda, Stripling, and Urias. If that’s not a changing of the guard, I don’t know what is..
The Dodgers might have great replacements for all of them and win. I’m not disputing that in the least.
Dude, Buehler, Bellinger, Taylor, Pederson, Hernandez and Muncy and Turner will all still be under team control or in arbitration in 2 years. On top of Seager, Jansen, Maeda, Stripling and Urias. That’s a pretty deep core group of guys to build around there, not including Kershaw who will likely still be on the team…not sure how many teams have 12-13 potentially average average pitchers and players to start their roster construction with in 2 years.
The Astros are close, but Verlander and Cole are free agents after 19, so this is the full extent of Astros starting pitching locked up in 2020: Lance McCullers. And if you want to be charitable, Brad Peacock. Even McHugh is a free agent. They’ll still have the core group of Correa, Springer, Altuve and Bregman, but their pitching is what carried them this year and that could be a giant question mark for them starting very soon.
The Red Sox have a very good group, but by Cots estimates they’re already over the luxury tax this year and Sale, Porcello, Moreland, Holt, Nunez and Bogaerts are free agents after 19 and Betts and Bradley are free agents after 20. They still have a lot to build around, but even they are potentially losing a ton or getting very expensive literally by the end of next year.
Buehler, Bellinger, Muncy are all relatively new players for the Dodgers….
Turner is a free agent in 2 years. So is Hernandez. So is Pederson. It’s very possible if not likely all of those, along with Hill, Kershaw, Ryu, Puig- that have been such mainstays in this run will wind up never having won it all.
Also, you bring up Houston and Boston. They have something that LA doesn’t have. And that’s a title.
” are all relatively new players”….so its a bad thing to be able to pump out talent year after year?
It’s not. But the group that would win the series quite possibly won’t be this core group that we’ve seen in LA the last 5-6 years.
You say Kemp is a free agent like its a bad thing. Sounds good to me. Get him and his 20 million dollar deal off the books. Also Hill will free up 18m when he is a free agent. Payroll flexibility + good farm system does not = window closing.
for this group of current Dodgers it is. Dodgers with Kershaw, Ryu, Puig, Hill, Wood, Grandal, Pederson, Turner, etc. all gone would mean that group of Dodgers would never have won it all.
I should point out that the defensive sacrifice is Muncy at 2B and Harper (or Puig?) in CF. Bellinger obviously is good at 1B.
I honestly don’t know why people talk about Machado signing with Dodgers.
Unless Seager or Turner gets injured, it makes no sense.
Turner’s only signed through 2020 and will be 35 at the end of his contract, Seager just had a major arm surgery…having a top 10-15 position player through 2024-2025 who can play serviceable SS or elite 3B is never a bad idea.
Also, moving one of Turner or Seager to 1b and trading Muncy to an AL team (DH) might not be a bad strategy.
Or maybe Turner could re-learn 2B. He played a bit there in 2013 or 2014, I think. Less likely, but between Seager’s recovery maybe taking up some of the early part of 2019 and Turner only being signed through 2020 (maybe they trade him away for pitching mid-year 2020?), maybe they only need to force Turner into 2b for like 200ish games.
An overabundance of top tier bats who play good infield defense is a good problem to have.
Why do you see Bellinger as moving to 1B? Isn’t it easier to find a 1B than an outfielder?
Bellinger is actually a good defensive CF: I’m shocked they would consider using him anywhere else.
I’m pretty sure that that the ideal situation for the Dodgers is for Kershaw to opt-in now, and then to let him walk after a couple years. Which, of course, is why it won’t happen that way at all.
would the Dodgers trade Bellinger for Giancarlo Stanton?
lol no
Stanton was traded less than a year ago for way less than the value of Bellinger. And Stanton didn’t gain any value
Yeah, let’s just play Bellinger at 1B, because they don’t really have anyone there… I just checked and the name Muncy appears nowhere in this article. The most amazing story in baseball, not even worth talking about. Yeah, let’s platoon this sucker, since even though he hits lefties and righties the same, he just looks platoonable. And Bellinger’s speed is wasted at 1B.
Stripling faded at the end of the year? That must have been right around the time they took him out of the starting rotation for no particular reason at all. He was a league leader in many pitching categories around then, would have had Cy Young votes. Bullpen.
Alex Wood could make similar complaints.
I feel like this article is looking at the numbers but not at the actual Dodgers.
Ross Stripling did fade starting in June. From start of season thru June 5- so 7 starts plus several relief appearances 53.2 innings- he had a 1.52 ERA/2.04 FIP/2.70 xFIP. His next 9 starts he had a 3.91 ERA/4.19 FIP/3.03 xFIP.(which included 5 starts in July where he was 4.73 ERA/4.29 FIP/2.91 xFIP). He didn’t go to the bullpen until after he came back off the DL….
Wood had far more of a case- but he still had 2 bad starts in late August/September.. And he wasn’t as good as Kershaw/Ryu/Buehler/Hill.