Game of the Week: 5/18-5/24

Roy Halladay is good. I mean, really, really good. Without question, Halladay is one of those guys so consistently great that he gets overlooked due to flashes in the pan and pitchers that cobble together unexpectedly great seasons. Even more impressive than his raw figures and rates is the fact that these statistics have been accrued while facing the beasts of the AL East with regularity over the last several seasons.

This past Thursday, Doc turned in the type of performance we have come to expect, but the suddenly anemic Blue Jays could not muster any offense whatsoever. Despite seven scoreless innings from their ace, the Jays fell 1-0 to “rookie” Kenshin Kawakami and the Atlanta Braves:

Halladay’s performance was matched by Kawakami, as the latter scattered a mere three hits over eight frames, issuing nary a free pass while fanning seven. Kawakami started off a tad slow but has looked extremely solid over his last few outings. Both starting pitchers held the opposition scoreless, ultimately leading to a 1-0 win for the Braves on the heels of a Casey Kotchman sacrifice fly in the eighth inning.

Jesse Carlson, who had relieved Halladay after the seventh, surrendered a ground-rule double to Matt Diaz to begin the inning. Diaz advanced to third on a Yunel Escobar groundout, before scoring thanks to Kotchman’s flyball in a plate appearance with a 3.29 leverage index. Mike Gonzalez closed out the game for Kawakami, extending the Blue Jays losing streak and preventing Halladay from notching career win 140.

Regardless, Halladay has been absolutely phenomenal in the win category that actually means something: wins above replacement. Since 2002, including a couple seasons with lesser playing time due to injuries, here are Roy’s win values: 7.8, 8.0, 3.2, 4.4, 5.7, 5.8, 7.6. Following this particular outing, Halladay’s present win value shot up to 2.7. And if you consider that, in 2001, his 2.34 FIP in 105.1 innings bests his output in 2004–3.79 FIP in 133.0 innings–then Halladay had to have been in the range of 3.2-3.5 wins back then as well.

Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher, Roy Halladay has never seen his overall contribution fall lower than at least a win above an average pitcher, and those numbers were produced in partial seasons. His lowest win value in a full season is an astonishing 5.7 wins. In other words, Roy’s “worst” full season exceeded the production level of Johan Santana last season.

In last week’s top game, Halladay provided but another valid reason as to why he should not be left out of best active pitcher discussions. At 31 years old, he might not have another decade in the tank, but another few healthy seasons at his current pace and those Hall of Fame discussions are going to pick up steam almost exponentially.