Gonzalez Loves Mountains; Headley Hates Beaches
Well, actually I have no idea if Carlos Gonzalez loves the mountains or if Chase Headley hates the beach, but if my home/road splits looked like their’s, I would certainly start to appreciate/blame the topography.
Many have pointed out how dramatic a split young Carlos Gonzalez possess — at home in Colorado, he’s an elite swing sultan; away from where the beer flows like wins, he is a pedestrian, league-average bat-swinger. Yeah, we get it. Everyone knows, right?
Well, the split is perhaps more dramatic than initially anticipated. Looking at players in the last decade (from 2001 through 2011) with a minimum of 500 home and 500 away PAs, we see CarGo has hit a wRC+ 74 points higher at home than away — more than anyone else in the period:
In other words, no one compares to Carlos Gonzalez… Okay, well, actually one guy does.
And it makes a world of difference.
Before the CarGo Era, there was the Matt Holliday Era. Matt Holliday had a wRC+ 66 points higher in the Rockies during his tenure with Colorado. Then, he got traded to the St. Louis Cardinals and continued to mash like he never left Colorado.
What does this mean? Hellifiknow. But it certainly means that being a product of Coors Field doesn’t necessarily make a body a bad player. Perhaps it helped make a young Holliday look better than he really was, and then when he became an even better player, we just didn’t notice. Who knows?
In the meantime, San Diego Padres hitters must be just about sick of the west coast life. Chase Headley and a pair of other Padres have seen their wRC+ absolutely bottom out in PETCO Caverns Park.
Here’s the top 9 and bottom 9 (why 9? Because I’m feeling frisky) home/road split differences for 2001 through 2011 (min. 500 PAs both home and away):
Name | Team | PA | BB% | K% | HR% | wRC+ | wRC+ Diff |
Carlos Gonzalez | COL | 1495 | 8% | 21% | 4.9% | 138 | 74 |
Alfonso Soriano | TEX | 1340 | 5% | 18% | 4.8% | 107 | 71 |
Matt Holliday | COL | 2968 | 8% | 17% | 4.3% | 134 | 66 |
Luke Scott | BAL | 1795 | 11% | 20% | 4.7% | 115 | 62 |
Nelson Cruz | TEX | 2077 | 8% | 22% | 5.1% | 115 | 58 |
Scott Hatteberg | CIN | 1017 | 13% | 8% | 2.3% | 111 | 54 |
Ian Kinsler | TEX | 3446 | 10% | 12% | 3.6% | 119 | 54 |
Frank Thomas | CHW | 1730 | 16% | 18% | 5.8% | 137 | 52 |
Justin Upton | ARI | 2402 | 10% | 24% | 3.8% | 119 | 50 |
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 1354 | 9% | 16% | 1.0% | 78 | -33 |
Dmitri Young | DET | 1976 | 7% | 19% | 4.1% | 115 | -34 |
D’Angelo Jimenez | CIN | 1102 | 12% | 15% | 1.7% | 98 | -35 |
Miguel Tejada | OAK | 1418 | 6% | 11% | 4.3% | 121 | -35 |
Xavier Nady | PIT | 1050 | 6% | 18% | 3.4% | 116 | -35 |
Adrian Gonzalez | SDP | 3425 | 12% | 18% | 4.7% | 135 | -35 |
Omar Infante | DET | 1732 | 6% | 18% | 1.8% | 79 | -36 |
Khalil Greene | SDP | 2642 | 7% | 20% | 3.2% | 93 | -36 |
Chase Headley | SDP | 2114 | 10% | 22% | 1.7% | 108 | -37 |
Wow A-Gonz had a negative split at home? Would love to see why, considering he was hitting in Fenway…
It’s 2001-2011. That’s his PetCo data you’re seeing
Not only is this 2001-2011, these numbers are split by team, and the Gonzalez numbers on the chart only include his time with San Diego.
But, Bradley, if your goal is to find guys who just have some innate skill at hitting better home/away, then you shouldn’t split by team, and expand your sample size cutoff to something more significant. If you did that, I’d think Adrian Beltre would lead the pack.
Good thoughts Yirmi.
Actually, this data is just a byproduct of some other research I’m working on for Fangraphs, so it was more of a “Oh my!” observation than an effort to divine home/away skills.