Grander than Sizemore?

Despite the Indians poor season, I believe there’s a pretty decent case to be made that Grady Sizemore has been the best player in the American League this year. He’s already gone 30-30 while playing a nifty center field, and his 3.09 WPA/LI is the best in the AL for an up-the-middle player. Ask pretty much anyone who the best CF in the AL is, and they’ll tell you it’s Sizemore.

They might not be right, however. I think, at some point, we have to consider whether Curtis Granderson might be the superior ballplayer right now (though the time he spent on the DL hurts his MVP chances). He doesn’t get the notoriety that Sizemore does, but he’s been an elite player for two years now. Here are some comparative graphs.

Sizemore was much better in 2006, but the last two years, Granderson has been as good or arguably better. He’s compiled 5.84 WPA/LI over 1,088 at-bats while Sizemore has racked up 5.31 WPA/LI over 1,176 at-bats. Despite playing a bit less, Granderson’s been more valuable offensively even on a counting stat basis. On a per at-bat basis, it hasn’t even been close.

We can’t ignore 2006, however. It happened, and it still matters. The up-to-date Marcel projections, which include the last three years of data, have Sizemore’s true talent level as at .284/.380/.503 and Granderson at .294/.372/.493. Very close, but a slight edge to Sizemore, thanks to the difference between their 2006 performances.

Both are considered to be quality defensive center fielders, and both have posted strong defensive numbers over the years. Granderson’s running a -10 in the Fielding Bible’s +/- system this year, but he was +20 last year and +12 the year before, so that’s probably just an outlier. Scouts love his defense, and until this year, the numbers had agreed. There’s no reason to believe that he’s suddenly turned into a problem with the glove.

So, if they’re basically equal offensively in true talent level, with Granderson being better the last two years, and there’s no compelling evidence to believe that Sizemore is superior defensively, how can we justify the belief that Sizemore is clearly the best CF in the AL?

I’m not saying Granderson’s definitely better, but I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s every bit as good as his more famous peer down in Cleveland.