Hamels-Santana

When the Mets traded for Johan Santana and promptly signed him to a six year contract extension, I was one of few Phillies fans actually excited that their rivals had just acquired arguably the best pitcher in the game. My sentiment was that, come September, I could not wait for a Santana vs. Cole Hamels matchup with the division potentially on the line; two of the league’s best lefties, with the best two changeups in baseball, squaring off with the collective fanbase of each team hanging onto every pitch. You can imagine that when Sunday’s game was moved to 8 pm EST, to be the ESPN national Sunday Night Game, everything I looked forward to before the season had gone to that next level.

What occurred, however, was a pretty one-sided beating in which the score did not tell the whole story. The Mets may have won 6-3, but the deficit seemed much larger than that, as the Phillies failed to do anything against Johan Santana for virtually the entire game. Hamels pitched poorly, giving Carlos Delgado’s much-publicized book some great notes to add, and the Phillies failed to put the finishing touches on a sweep that would have put them in a tie for first place.

With 19 games to play, the Mets are in the driver’s seat with a two game lead. Last year, with 17 games remaining, the Mets led by 7 games and managed to lose the division. One of the primary reasons for that collapse was a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, which directly loosened their divisional grip by three games. Unlike then, the Phillies and Mets are now finished playing each other for the season, which means the division will be decided by how they fare against their remaining opponents.

The Phillies start a three game set with the Marlins tonight, before playing the Brewers for four. Following that seven game homestand, they go to Atlanta and then Florida for three games each, before returning home to finish the year out against the Braves and Nationals. All told, they have 3 against the Nationals, 4 against the Brewers, 6 against the Marlins, and 6 against the Braves. The Mets, on the other hand, have 3 against the Marlins, 4 against the Cubs, 6 against the Nationals, and 6 against the Braves. It seems that the division will be decided by which team fares the best against potential NL East spoilers and the top-tier NL Central teams. Or, the Marlins could win all six against the Phillies and all three against the Mets and win the division.

This September might not have the exact makings of 2007, but it still has the potential to be a very fun and intense stretch of 19 games. Throw in the close proximity between the DBacks-Dodgers and Twins-White Sox and there are three potential divisions that could be decided over the last few games.

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Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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R M
17 years ago

You left out the Red Sox-Rays race in the AL East!