Hanson Hooks on with Rangers

Once upon a time, Tommy Hanson’s career seemed like it would be spun into legend. He was one of the best young pitchers in baseball, in one of the best organizations. Now, heading into his age-27 season, his story seems more like a particularly cruel choose-your-own-adventure story. Shoulder injuries will do that. On Monday, he agreed to a deal with the Rangers. There are conflicting reports as I write this as to whether it is a minor league or major league deal. Either way, this will be Hanson’s third team in three years, and if things don’t work out for him in Texas, this could be his last chance.

That is not to imply that Hanson has some sort of tragic career. Far from it. If you slice and dice enough data, you can find plenty of comparable cases to Hanson. By the end of his age-24 season, which was his third season in the majors, Hanson had crossed the 450-inning threshold in his career. Since the expansion era started in 1961, there have been 105 other pitchers who have accomplished such a feat. To wit:

Pitchers with 450+ IP, First Three Seasons, Age-24 or Younger, 1961-Present
Player	IP	From	To	Age	Career IP
Don Sutton	666.0	1966	1968	21-23	5282.1
Bert Blyleven	729.2	1970	1972	19-21	4970.0
Roger Clemens	485.2	1984	1986	21-23	4916.2
Tom Seaver	802.1	1967	1969	22-24	4783.0
Fergie Jenkins	486.0	1965	1967	22-24	4500.2
Frank Tanana	552.1	1973	1975	19-21	4188.1
Dennis Martinez	470.2	1976	1978	22-24	3999.2
Mickey Lolich	620.0	1963	1965	22-24	3638.1
Joe Niekro	568.1	1967	1969	22-24	3584.1
Mike Mussina	496.1	1991	1993	22-24	3562.2
John Smoltz	503.1	1988	1990	21-23	3473.0
Catfish Hunter	569.1	1965	1967	19-21	3449.1
Dennis Eckersley	633.1	1975	1977	20-22	3285.2
Fernando Valenzuela	495.0	1980	1982	19-21	2930.0
Dave Stieb	555.2	1979	1981	21-23	2895.1
Mark Buehrle*	511.2	2000	2002	21-23	2882.2
Javier Vazquez	544.2	1998	2000	21-23	2840.0
Frank Viola	593.2	1982	1984	22-24	2836.1
Mike Moore	484.1	1982	1984	22-24	2831.2
Dwight Gooden	744.2	1984	1986	19-21	2800.2
CC Sabathia*	588.0	2001	2003	20-22	2775.1
Kevin Millwood	453.2	1997	1999	22-24	2720.1
Bob Knepper	451.0	1976	1978	22-24	2708.0
Jim Slaton	468.0	1971	1973	21-23	2683.2
Mel Stottlemyre	638.0	1964	1966	22-24	2661.1
Burt Hooton	479.1	1971	1973	21-23	2652.0
Barry Zito*	536.1	2000	2002	22-24	2569.2
Bret Saberhagen	549.0	1984	1986	20-22	2562.2
Stan Bahnsen	511.0	1966	1969	21-24	2529.0
John Candelaria	571.1	1975	1977	21-23	2525.2
Andy Benes	482.0	1989	1991	21-23	2505.1
Bobby Witt	475.0	1986	1988	22-24	2465.0
Brad Radke	652.2	1995	1997	22-24	2451.0
Jon Matlack	523.0	1971	1973	21-23	2363.0
Scott Erickson	529.0	1990	1992	22-24	2360.2
Ron Darling	489.0	1983	1985	22-24	2360.1
Randy Wolf	491.0	1999	2001	22-24	2268.0
Freddy Garcia*	564.1	1999	2001	22-24	2264.0
Andy Messersmith	526.0	1968	1970	22-24	2230.1
Mark Gubicza	547.0	1984	1986	21-23	2223.1
Kyle Lohse*	472.0	2001	2003	22-24	2171.2
Darryl Kile	450.2	1991	1993	22-24	2165.1
Dean Chance	473.0	1961	1963	20-22	2147.1
Mike Witt	462.2	1981	1983	20-22	2108.1
Jaime Navarro	493.0	1989	1991	22-24	2055.1
Ross Grimsley	601.1	1971	1973	21-23	2039.1
Don Robinson	549.1	1978	1980	21-23	1958.1
Jake Peavy*	458.2	2002	2004	21-23	1945.0
Brad Penny*	454.0	2000	2002	22-24	1899.0
Ray Culp	542.2	1963	1965	21-23	1898.1
Jose DeLeon	463.0	1983	1985	22-24	1897.1
Jeff Weaver	593.0	1999	2001	22-24	1838.0
Ismael Valdez	451.0	1994	1996	20-22	1827.1
Felix Hernandez*	465.2	2005	2007	19-21	1824.2
Storm Davis	526.0	1982	1984	20-22	1780.2
Sidney Ponson	567.0	1998	2000	21-23	1760.1
Alex Fernandez	467.0	1990	1992	20-22	1760.1
Mike LaCoss	471.0	1978	1980	22-24	1739.2
Lary Sorensen	658.1	1977	1979	21-23	1736.1
Bob Stanley	509.1	1977	1979	22-24	1707.0
Ervin Santana*	487.2	2005	2007	22-24	1686.2
Gary Nolan	485.1	1967	1969	19-21	1674.2
Jim Abbott	636.0	1989	1991	21-23	1674.0
Steve Hargan	475.1	1965	1967	22-24	1632.0
Ben Sheets	588.2	2001	2003	22-24	1596.2
Cole Hamels*	543.0	2006	2008	22-24	1596.2
Frank Castillo	458.1	1991	1993	22-24	1595.1
Eric Milton	578.2	1998	2000	22-24	1582.1
Steve Avery	543.0	1990	1992	20-22	1554.2
Clay Kirby	697.2	1969	1971	21-23	1548.0
Tom Murphy	542.0	1968	1970	22-24	1444.0
Pete Falcone	526.0	1975	1977	21-23	1435.1
Kerry Wood	478.0	1998	2001	21-24	1380.0
Mark Mulder*	590.2	2000	2002	22-24	1314.0
Bruce Ruffin	495.1	1986	1988	22-24	1268.0
Chuck Dobson	506.2	1966	1968	22-24	1258.1
Jeremy Bonderman*	535.0	2003	2005	20-22	1231.0
Dontrelle Willis	594.0	2003	2005	21-23	1221.2
Clayton Kershaw*	483.0	2008	2010	20-22	1180.0
John Danks*	534.1	2007	2009	22-24	1109.2
Don Aase	456.1	1977	1979	22-24	1109.1
Jim Nash	578.0	1966	1968	21-23	1107.1
Dave Rozema	525.0	1977	1979	20-22	1106.0
Joe Magrane	570.1	1987	1989	22-24	1096.2
Steve Busby	570.2	1972	1974	22-24	1060.2
Art Mahaffey	493.1	1961	1962	23-24	999.0
Johnny Cueto*	531.0	2008	2010	22-24	964.2
Brian Meadows	549.0	1998	2000	22-24	960.2
Trevor Cahill*	583.0	2009	2011	21-23	929.2
Gary Gentry	625.1	1969	1971	22-24	902.2
Bob Hendley	466.1	1961	1963	22-24	879.1
Rick Porcello*	515.1	2009	2011	20-22	868.2
Dave Freisleben	564.2	1974	1976	22-24	865.1
Dennis Bennett	502.0	1962	1964	22-24	863.0
Jay Tibbs	509.0	1984	1986	22-24	862.2
Dave Morehead	534.0	1963	1965	20-22	819.1
Roger Erickson	580.0	1978	1980	21-23	799.1
Steve Kline	559.0	1970	1972	22-24	750.1
Jose Rosado	484.2	1996	1998	21-23	720.1
Tommy Hanson*	460.1	2009	2011	22-24	708.0
Paul Hartzell	512.1	1976	1978	22-24	703.1
Mike Leake*	485.0	2010	2012	22-24	677.1
Frankie Rodriguez	454.2	1995	1997	22-24	654.0
Ray Corbin	450.1	1971	1973	22-24	652.1
Mark Lemongello	454.0	1976	1978	20-22	537.0
Bill Parsons	518.1	1971	1973	22-24	520.1
Juan Nieves	490.2	1986	1988	21-23	490.2

* = Active Pitcher

As you can see, most of these guys went on to have long careers, and many of them are still having them. A full 85 of the pitchers here tossed at least 1,000 innings, and Art Mahaffey was close enough to call him 86. And then there are three active pitchers who can be reasonably expected to clear that bar this season — Johnny Cueto, Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. That brings us to 89. Still, that’s 18 pitchers (I know, I’m awesome at math) that didn’t clear that bar, or won’t this year. And to be frank, no one is closing the door on Hanson being one of them. The chart is simply to illustrate that Hanson isn’t exactly special in seeing his career arc plummet back to earth so quickly. Even after parsing the data much more than I would normally, you’re still left with more than a dozen guys in the same boat as him. If you want to talk tragic, let’s talk about Juan Nieves, who tossed a no-hitter at age-22 and then was out of the game two years later following shoulder troubles of his own. Whether Hanson’s troubles are less severe, or today’s medical technology has advanced far enough to give him additional opportunities, Hanson is still standing, and that’s pretty good.

Still, his chances of succeeding in the Rangers rotation are not what you would call promising. Whether he’s slotted in to be the team’s fifth, sixth or seventh starting pitcher, he faces an uphill climb on the road back to respectability. As we’ve discussed, the first and most important consideration is whether or not he can take the ball every fifth day. After tossing 202.2 innings in 2010, he has made just 66 starts across the past three seasons, and totaled just 377.2 innings pitched. That’s roughly two-thirds the starts you would hope to see, and about half the innings pitched you would hope to see. And the lowest total for each came last season, when he missed time with a forearm strain, and then was later demoted to Triple-A.

When he was on the mound, things weren’t much prettier. His BB% rose up to a level that was well worse than league average in 2012, and it remained at that level in 2013. In 2012 though, had an above-average strikeout rate, which helped mitigate some of the problem. Last season though, that strikeout rate dipped four percent down to 17.1%. On top of that, he became a fly ball pitcher. Perhaps that was him trying to adjust to an environment where Mike Trout and Peter Bourjos had his back in the outfield, or perhaps that was because he generated far fewer swings, and swings and misses than he had in the past. Not exactly known for pounding the strike zone — his 49.3% Zone% ranked right in the middle, 107th out of 206 pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched last year — Hanson needs hitters to swing the bat, and they stopped doing that last season. Looking again at the 206-pitcher sample, we see that only eight pitchers generated a lower Swing% than did Hanson.

This isn’t to suggest that Hanson is finished. He still possesses a fantastic curveball. Even last season, his 1.82 wCU/C ranked 16th-best out of 206 — better than Adam Wainwright, Matt Harvey and James Shields, to name just a few. And again, he’s still going to be just 27, so there aren’t a ton of miles on his arm. This deal is a bet that the Rangers can turn him around, and in a vacuum, it’s not a bad bet, especially for the low-low price of $2 million or less.

I say in a vacuum, because it seems like the last thing the Rangers need is a pitcher with injury concerns. Derek Holland is going to be out for at least half the season, and Colby Lewis didn’t pitch at all in the majors last season. Matt Harrison missed just about all of 2013 with back problems, and while he is supposed to be healthy, once you begin having back problems you never really are pain-free, no matter what your job is. And Alexi Ogando twice battled shoulder problems of his own last season. That leaves the Rangers with just Yu Darvish and Martin Perez around as guys you would consider totally healthy, and even Perez missed time last year with a left forearm fracture (though that hopefully shouldn’t linger). So, it would seem like perhaps the Rangers would have been better off signing a player that they could count on to deliver innings. And perhaps they still will. But Hanson certainly seems like an odd fit, unless the Rangers have figured out something about his health that we don’t know (and I’m not ruling that out).

Tommy Hanson was once a very promising pitcher, but his career has been derailed by injuries, much like several of the other members of his new team. If the Rangers can help either fix him or help him adjust to life with diminished velocity, they could end up with one of the steals of the winter. It’s more likely however, that this adventure won’t have a happy ending, and Hanson will be in much greater danger of falling under that 1,000 career innings pitched threshold. Pitchers need to either get strikeouts or ground balls to perform well in good hitting environments like Arlington, and Hanson hasn’t been getting much of either as of late.