Harden the Ranger

On a free agent market lacking elite reliable arms, Rich Harden stood out as perhaps the most intriguing of the never-well collection. Today, the Texas Rangers signed the 28-year-old to a one-year deal worth $7.5M along with a $11.5M club option for next season according to Craig Calcaterra.

This isn’t the Rangers first run-in with an injured pitcher, as they were reportedly infatuated with Ben Sheets throughout last off-season and this season. Unlike Sheet, Harden actually pitched last season, and pitched moderately well. A FIP of 4.35 is worse than we’ve come to expect from 6’1” righty with an average fastball velocity just north of 92 MPH, but he still induced many an empty swing. Harden’s 67.3% contact rate ranked tops amongst all starting pitchers with at least 140 innings. In fact, over the last three seasons, Harden is the only starter below 70%.

Harden’s xFIP has ranged from 3.5 to 3.9 each of the past four seasons. He’s morphed into more of a fly ball pitcher lately – allowing 40% or more fly balls each of the past three seasons – which isn’t what you want from a guy heading into Arlington, but it is what it is. A move to the American League is going to hurt his numbers a bit as well. Still, Harden is pretty familiar with the American League West and its inhabitants, having pitched with Oakland for the majority of his career.

The money itself is similar to the deal Brad Penny just received from St. Louis. When healthy, Harden is the superior talent. The problem with Harden has never been talent though, but the nastiest six-letter word in the baseball dictionary when it comes to pitchers: health. There’s a good chance he throws something like 140 innings and produces 3+ WAR. There’s also a good chance he gets hurt in May and misses most of the year with an injury, as he has two of the past four seasons.

Risky indeed. However, if Harden can do the unthinkable and stay healthy, Texas just made the AL West race a lot more interesting.