How the Best Tools Translate to the Majors: A Partial Study

As perhaps indicated by the piece I published here in the fall concerning the relationship between scouting grades and wins, one of my particular interests — and, I would argue, one of the more compelling frontiers of baseball research currently — is the examination of how a prospect’s scouting profile relates, in a concrete and objective way, to the production that might be expected of him at the major-league level. My assumption is that many, if not all, professional organizations have a means by which to assess such a thing — perhaps some in a less, others in a more, formal way. The bonuses they extend to amateur players indicate that some manner of valuation exists. For the public, however, the process by which such valuations are established is rather opaque.

The intention of this post is to add very, very slightly to the extant body of research on this topic. It (i.e. this post) has its genesis in a pastime that probably won’t be unfamiliar to the reader — namely, flipping through the pages of a Baseball America Prospect Handbook (a text with regard to which I’ve documented my emotional emotions elsewhere). As the reader will probably know, for each organization, the editors of Baseball America identify which prospects within that organization feature the best of this or that tool: Best Hitter for Average, Best Power Hitter, Best Strike-Zone Discipline, etc.

“How,” I said aloud to myself, because my life is full predominantly of sadness, “how might the prospects with the greatest ability to hit for average compare to the ones with most power compare to the ones with best plate discipline once all of these players have eventually graduated to the majors (or, alternatively, have not graduated to the majors, from lack of opportunity/talent)?” Phrased differently: how have the best tools translated to major-league production?

Obviously, for the players who appear in the 2014 edition of the Handbook, such a question is unanswerable. Were one to examine players who’ve had sufficient time to produce a major-league resume, however, such an endeavor would be possible. Fortunately, BA has been assembling such lists for a while — and lists of each organizations best tools are available online going back to 2005, it appears.

Accordingly, 2005 is where I decided to begin this very small thing. What I did, simply, was to record which players were distinguished for the following traits within their respective organizations:

• Best Hitter for Average
• Best Power Hitter
• Best Strike-Zone Discipline
• Fastest Baserunner
• Best Athlete

After assembling a list of all Best Tool players from each of the 30 organizations, I produced five separate custom leaderboards with the metrics that might be most relevant to assessing the quality of a major leaguer. That information appears below, in a number of forms and accompanied by mediocre commentary.

Before we consider that data, it’s important to note that there are probably about a thousand caveats that ought to be made regarding this exercise. For one: these Best Tool lists represent a distillation of opinions from scouts and other industry contacts. Educated opinions, of course, but opinions nonetheless. Naturally, there’s a lack of absolute precision. For two: just as in 2014, talent wasn’t distributed evenly in 2005 among all 30 organizations. Toronto’s top power-hitting prospect in 2005 (Guillermo Quiroz) was never regarded as having the same sort of home-run potential as Milwaukee’s top power prospect from then (i.e. Prince Fielder). For three: owing to how the data here represents only a single year’s worth of prospects, the present work is hardly exhaustive.

Below are five leaderboards, each containing the players who (a) were distinguished by Baseball America for possessing one of the five relevant tools named above and (b) also recorded at least a single plate appearance in the majors. Players are sorted by career WAR to date. Also included are the number of players demonstrating the relevant tool to have graduated to the majors and the numbers of those players to have recorded at least 5.0 WAR over the course of their respective career. HRC% denotes home runs on contact (that is, home runs per ball batted into fair play); WAR550, meanwhile, denotes WAR for every 550 plate appearances of a player’s career.

Best Hitters for Average
Graduated to Majors: 27
Number Above 5.0 WAR: 15

Name	PA	BB%	K%	HRC%	BABIP	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR	WAR550
Joe Mauer	5060	12.2%	11.1%	2.7%	.349	134	11.1	222.4	42.0	44.0	4.8
Curtis Granderson	5044	10.2%	23.1%	6.4%	.305	118	27.6	136.4	22.3	33.2	3.6
Joey Votto	3790	14.9%	18.5%	6.2%	.359	156	-11.4	240.1	-44.1	33.0	4.8
Ian Kinsler	4791	9.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.281	111	39.8	104.9	18.2	29.1	3.3
Michael Bourn	3941	8.5%	20.6%	1.0%	.342	92	53.4	14.9	66.5	21.7	3.0
Aaron Hill	4814	6.9%	13.1%	3.5%	.291	101	6.8	14.5	27.8	20.6	2.4
Nick Markakis	5256	9.3%	13.1%	3.1%	.317	113	5.9	89.3	-65.8	20.0	2.1
Rickie Weeks	4414	10.6%	23.3%	4.8%	.302	107	21.3	61.1	-35.0	17.2	2.1
Carlos Quentin	3092	9.1%	15.6%	6.4%	.258	124	-5.6	81.0	-78.3	10.8	1.9
Nate McLouth	3575	9.8%	16.9%	3.8%	.279	101	33.8	37.3	-52.2	10.4	1.6
Billy Butler	4208	9.2%	14.3%	3.7%	.327	120	-37.0	62.2	-108.8	9.8	1.3
Melky Cabrera	4236	7.2%	12.1%	2.1%	.310	99	1.2	-7.8	-46.8	8.9	1.2
Ryan Sweeney	2112	8.0%	14.6%	1.2%	.320	96	0.8	-10.4	19.2	8.0	2.1
Jeff Francoeur	4959	5.0%	18.3%	3.7%	.297	88	-11.2	-81.2	-19.2	6.2	0.7
Matt Murton	1058	8.8%	14.1%	3.6%	.312	101	1.7	3.4	16.3	5.4	2.8
Brandon Moss	1550	8.8%	25.7%	6.5%	.304	113	-9.5	12.7	-23.5	4.3	1.5
Casey Kotchman	3412	7.8%	9.9%	2.5%	.271	93	-25.1	-54.9	-31.9	2.7	0.4
Ian Stewart	1620	10.3%	27.3%	5.8%	.290	83	-2.1	-33.9	5.9	2.5	0.8
Jeremy Reed	1376	7.3%	14.2%	1.1%	.289	78	0.1	-36.8	10.4	2.0	0.8
Jeremy Hermida	2261	9.6%	22.9%	4.3%	.314	96	-9.4	-18.6	-38.6	1.8	0.4
Blake DeWitt	1247	8.6%	15.6%	2.2%	.292	87	0.1	-18.9	-3.0	1.8	0.8
Brendan Harris	1876	7.0%	18.3%	2.4%	.301	85	2.8	-30.7	-17.4	1.5	0.4
Josh Barfield	1075	4.1%	17.5%	1.9%	.307	75	9.4	-24.6	-0.9	1.1	0.6
Chris Burke	1443	7.8%	16.8%	2.1%	.277	76	5.9	-38.1	-2.5	0.8	0.3
Michael Aubrey	145	6.9%	10.3%	5.0%	.254	96	-1.0	-1.8	-2.5	0.1	0.4
Delmon Young	3936	4.2%	17.9%	3.3%	.322	96	-10.2	-27.7	-114.8	-1.2	-0.2
Omar Quintanilla	1131	8.3%	20.6%	1.0%	.278	52	0.8	-64.7	11.7	-1.7	-0.8
Average	3016	8.5%	16.9%	3.5%	.302	100	3.7	23.3	-16.5	10.9	2.0

Best Power Hitters
Graduated to Majors: 23
Number Above 5.0 WAR: 6

Name	PA	BB%	K%	HRC%	BABIP	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR	WAR550
Joey Votto	3790	14.9%	18.5%	6.2%	.359	156	-11.4	240.1	-44.1	33.0	4.8
Prince Fielder	5612	12.9%	17.5%	7.3%	.303	140	-44.2	229.0	-142.2	27.7	2.7
Ryan Howard	5018	11.7%	27.9%	10.3%	.324	130	-38.9	152.3	-110.0	20.4	2.2
Carlos Quentin	3092	9.1%	15.6%	6.4%	.258	124	-5.6	81.0	-78.3	10.8	1.9
Billy Butler	4208	9.2%	14.3%	3.7%	.327	120	-37.0	62.2	-108.8	9.8	1.3
Nate Schierholtz	1892	6.0%	17.1%	3.1%	.299	98	4.6	0.3	-3.4	5.9	1.7
Chris Duncan	1317	12.1%	24.0%	6.5%	.307	111	1.3	21.1	-32.0	3.2	1.3
Ian Stewart	1620	10.3%	27.3%	5.8%	.290	83	-2.1	-33.9	5.9	2.5	0.8
Dan Johnson	1556	13.2%	14.8%	5.0%	.243	101	-4.4	-1.9	-28.7	2.2	0.8
Dallas McPherson	414	6.5%	32.1%	7.1%	.319	92	-2.0	-6.2	4.0	1.2	1.6
Jason Botts	326	11.7%	33.1%	2.8%	.349	76	-0.7	-10.6	4.8	0.5	0.8
Jon Knott	37	13.5%	24.3%	4.3%	.227	75	-0.5	-1.8	0.6	0.0	0.0
Walter Young	37	10.8%	18.9%	3.8%	.360	113	-0.6	0.0	-1.2	0.0	0.0
Josh Fields	796	8.7%	29.5%	6.9%	.298	86	-3.6	-17.4	-10.9	-0.1	-0.1
Joel Guzman	62	8.1%	19.4%	0.0%	.295	68	0.1	-2.5	-1.0	-0.1	-0.9
Wladimir Balentien	559	7.9%	26.7%	4.1%	.279	72	1.5	-18.0	-2.8	-0.2	-0.2
Scott Moore	430	6.5%	24.4%	5.4%	.285	88	-0.8	-7.3	-9.2	-0.2	-0.3
Brad Snyder	37	2.7%	48.6%	0.0%	.333	-5	0.0	-4.6	1.5	-0.2	-3.0
Mike Restovich	297	9.4%	22.9%	3.0%	.299	82	-0.3	-7.4	-7.5	-0.5	-0.9
Delmon Young	3936	4.2%	17.9%	3.3%	.322	96	-10.2	-27.7	-114.8	-1.2	-0.2
Brad Eldred	299	5.7%	36.5%	8.7%	.266	71	-1.0	-12.1	-11.3	-1.4	-2.6
Guillermo Quiroz	377	5.8%	22.5%	1.1%	.257	43	-3.5	-29.9	2.5	-1.5	-2.2
Andy Marte	924	7.3%	19.2%	2.9%	.252	67	-3.5	-41.5	-10.3	-2.1	-1.3
Average	1593	9.1%	24.0%	4.7%	.298	91	-7.1	24.5	-30.3	4.8	1.6

Best Strike-Zone Discipline-ers
Graduated to Majors: 25
Number Above 5.0 WAR: 13

Name	PA	BB%	K%	HRC%	BABIP	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR	WAR550
Dustin Pedroia	4548	9.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.314	119	3.8	105.7	75.6	34.4	4.2
Curtis Granderson	5044	10.2%	23.1%	6.4%	.305	118	27.6	136.4	22.3	33.2	3.6
Joey Votto	3790	14.9%	18.5%	6.2%	.359	156	-11.4	240.1	-44.1	33.0	4.8
Prince Fielder	5612	12.9%	17.5%	7.3%	.303	140	-44.2	229.0	-142.2	27.7	2.7
Nick Swisher	5647	13.2%	21.4%	6.3%	.291	119	-5.3	126.5	-44.5	27.7	2.7
Michael Bourn	3941	8.5%	20.6%	1.0%	.342	92	53.4	14.9	66.5	21.7	3.0
Josh Willingham	4252	11.8%	22.0%	6.4%	.294	123	-7.3	111.2	-85.9	16.8	2.2
Billy Butler	4208	9.2%	14.3%	3.7%	.327	120	-37.0	62.2	-108.8	9.8	1.3
Ryan Church	2128	8.8%	21.6%	3.8%	.319	102	-0.3	7.2	9.6	8.6	2.2
Garrett Atkins	3273	8.9%	13.7%	3.9%	.305	99	-6.5	-6.5	-31.5	6.9	1.2
Rajai Davis	2640	5.7%	17.1%	1.3%	.317	87	41.6	1.5	-22.1	6.8	1.4
Matt Murton	1058	8.8%	14.1%	3.6%	.312	101	1.7	3.4	16.3	5.4	2.8
Jeff Keppinger	3156	6.3%	6.8%	1.6%	.290	92	-7.6	-36.9	-12.6	5.4	0.9
Fred Lewis	1763	9.6%	22.1%	2.2%	.337	100	8.8	9.9	-22.5	4.5	1.4
Conor Jackson	2485	10.1%	11.7%	2.7%	.290	98	2.6	-3.7	-45.8	3.3	0.7
Jason Kubel	3707	9.1%	20.9%	5.4%	.302	107	-14.5	17.6	-113.7	2.7	0.4
Casey Kotchman	3412	7.8%	9.9%	2.5%	.271	93	-25.1	-54.9	-31.9	2.7	0.4
Jeremy Reed	1376	7.3%	14.2%	1.1%	.289	78	0.1	-36.8	10.4	2.0	0.8
Elliot Johnson	806	6.7%	26.2%	2.2%	.288	65	2.5	-30.5	8.2	0.4	0.3
Michael Aubrey	145	6.9%	10.3%	5.0%	.254	96	-1.0	-1.8	-2.5	0.1	0.4
Val Majewski	13	0.0%	7.7%	0.0%	.167	-11	0.3	-1.5	0.6	0.0	0.0
John Gall	56	1.8%	25.0%	4.9%	.289	74	-0.6	-2.5	-0.7	-0.1	-1.0
Paul McAnulty	275	13.1%	26.5%	3.6%	.263	77	1.5	-6.5	-3.6	-0.1	-0.2
Todd Self	49	6.1%	18.4%	2.7%	.229	45	-0.6	-4.0	-0.2	-0.3	-3.4
Russ Adams	993	8.6%	11.9%	2.2%	.264	78	0.2	-27.2	-17.7	-1.0	-0.6
Average	2575	8.6%	17.0%	3.5%	.293	95	-0.7	34.1	-20.8	10.1	2.1

Fastest Baserunners
Graduated to Majors: 17
Number Above 5.0 WAR: 7

Name	PA	BB%	K%	HRC%	BABIP	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR	WAR550
Hanley Ramirez	4760	9.5%	16.6%	5.1%	.334	132	28.1	217.4	-6.5	37.1	4.3
Michael Bourn	3941	8.5%	20.6%	1.0%	.342	92	53.4	14.9	66.5	21.7	3.0
Denard Span	3333	8.9%	11.9%	1.0%	.318	103	18.0	32.2	37.5	18.5	3.1
Chris Young	3963	10.0%	22.9%	5.4%	.274	94	17.3	-14.2	29.8	15.0	2.1
Gregor Blanco	1800	11.7%	19.8%	0.8%	.325	93	9.4	-6.2	16.0	7.1	2.2
Rajai Davis	2640	5.7%	17.1%	1.3%	.317	87	41.6	1.5	-22.1	6.8	1.4
Willy Taveras	2644	5.1%	14.8%	0.4%	.323	68	39.1	-66.4	37.7	5.8	1.2
Joey Gathright	1329	7.3%	16.0%	0.1%	.318	71	9.9	-39.4	24.7	3.0	1.2
Jason Repko	779	6.7%	25.0%	3.0%	.288	72	8.4	-18.4	15.6	2.3	1.6
Jerry Owens	430	7.0%	16.7%	0.3%	.319	65	7.6	-11.1	6.7	1.0	1.3
Jamal Strong	26	7.7%	23.1%	0.0%	.294	72	0.5	-0.4	0.6	0.1	2.1
Freddy Guzman	102	3.9%	16.7%	1.2%	.244	41	1.2	-6.5	4.3	0.1	0.5
Dave Krynzel	54	5.6%	33.3%	0.0%	.300	36	0.3	-4.2	2.2	0.0	0.0
Mel Stocker	3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	.000	-100	0.6	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
Freddie Bynum	377	4.2%	28.6%	2.4%	.321	64	-0.1	-16.9	-1.5	-0.5	-0.7
Eric Reed	68	4.4%	23.5%	0.0%	.133	-36	0.9	-11.1	3.6	-0.5	-4.0
Ramon Nivar	133	3.0%	14.3%	0.0%	.262	30	-0.2	-11.8	-5.2	-1.2	-5.0
Average	1552	6.4%	18.9%	1.3%	.277	58	13.9	3.5	12.4	6.8	2.4

Best Athlete
Graduated to Majors: 20
Number Above 5.0 WAR: 6

Name	PA	BB%	K%	HRC%	BABIP	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR	WAR550
Hanley Ramirez	4760	9.5%	16.6%	5.1%	.334	132	28.1	217.4	-6.5	37.1	4.3
Matt Kemp	3897	8.0%	23.6%	5.9%	.352	126	18.3	138.1	-63.8	20.6	2.9
Denard Span	3333	8.9%	11.9%	1.0%	.318	103	18.0	32.2	37.5	18.5	3.1
Chris Young	3963	10.0%	22.9%	5.4%	.274	94	17.3	-14.2	29.8	15.0	2.1
Brendan Ryan	2645	7.1%	16.0%	0.9%	.279	71	15.2	-75.4	80.5	9.3	1.9
Jeff Francoeur	4959	5.0%	18.3%	3.7%	.297	88	-11.2	-81.2	-19.2	6.2	0.7
Fred Lewis	1763	9.6%	22.1%	2.2%	.337	100	8.8	9.9	-22.5	4.5	1.4
Elijah Dukes	970	13.3%	20.3%	4.8%	.279	105	-3.1	3.5	-13.0	2.3	1.3
Joaquin Arias	855	3.4%	13.5%	0.8%	.309	81	3.4	-15.6	-2.1	1.0	0.6
Jerry Owens	430	7.0%	16.7%	0.3%	.319	65	7.6	-11.1	6.7	1.0	1.3
Ben Johnson	253	10.7%	27.7%	4.5%	.299	92	-0.9	-3.5	2.5	0.8	1.7
Charlton Jimerson	9	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	.500	305	0.6	3.0	0.0	0.3	18.3
Lastings Milledge	1659	6.3%	17.3%	2.6%	.312	92	-4.7	-22.0	-31.3	0.2	0.1
Jai Miller	73	5.5%	39.7%	5.0%	.378	79	0.2	-1.7	-0.1	0.1	0.8
Dave Krynzel	54	5.6%	33.3%	0.0%	.300	36	0.3	-4.2	2.2	0.0	0.0
Matt Tuiasosopo	401	9.5%	31.7%	5.1%	.283	79	-2.0	-12.1	-4.4	-0.3	-0.4
Greg Golson	42	2.4%	23.8%	0.0%	.258	20	-0.1	-4.3	-0.3	-0.3	-3.9
Reggie Abercrombie	421	5.0%	29.2%	3.2%	.301	61	1.6	-19.9	-0.2	-0.5	-0.7
Felix Pie	1082	6.5%	21.0%	2.2%	.300	72	3.6	-32.7	-13.4	-1.1	-0.6
Chris Nelson	820	5.9%	23.0%	2.7%	.335	81	-0.5	-18.2	-27.8	-2.1	-1.4
Average	1619	7.0%	23.1%	4.4%	.318	94	5.0	4.4	-2.3	5.6	1.9

The various sizes of these leaderboards probably help to offer at least an initial idea of the degree to which certain tools have portended major-league success. Among the 30 prospects regarded as best at hitting for average in their respective organizations in 2005, 27 have graduated to the majors — and 26 of them (i.e. all but Michael Aubrey) have recorded at least 1000 major-league plate appearances. Of the prospects designated as their respective organization’s fastest runner, on the other hand, only 17 have ever recorded a major-league plate appearance — of those, only nine have tallied 1000 plate appearances to date, suggesting that the prospects from that group have been less valuable to their respective clubs.

While I’ve included the averages for each group at the bottom of all the leaderboards above, those numbers have limited utility for our concerns here, as they pertain only to those prospects who eventually graduated to the majors. They’re not entirely without use, those figures; however, if our aim is to assess the future production of all the Best Tool prospects, it’s better to find the median figures, instead, for all 30 players named by BA in each tool category.

With that in mind, I’ve included below a table including the median figures (or 15th-best, at least) for several relevant metrics among each tool category.

Tool	PA	BB%	K%	HRC%	wRC+	WAR
ATH	401	5.5%	27.7%	1.0%	72	0.0
AVG	3092	8.5%	16.9%	3.3%	96	5.4
DIS	2128	8.6%	18.5%	2.7%	93	3.3
POW	414	7.9%	24.4%	3.7%	82	-0.1
RUN	54	3.9%	25.0%	0.0%	30	-0.5

Now, in lieu of further serious commentary, here are some observations presented by means of bullet point:

• An inspection of the data above suggests that there is a considerable division in production between the prospects recognized for their capacity to hit for average and demonstrate plate discipline (on the one hand) and the prospects notable for their power, speed, and/or athleticism (on the other). The former two groups have been useful, by and large, at the major-league level; the latter three groups, decidedly less so.
• Despite the fact that the players noted for their footspeed have graduated the fewest players to the majors and produced by far the lowest park-adjusted batting lines, they’ve still approximated the best power hitters and athletes in terms of overall value, compensating for their shortcomings as batters with much better baserunning and defensive figures than the prospects from the other four groups.
• Perhaps unsurprisingly, the power-hitting group has produced the best results in terms of home runs on contact, with a median figure of 3.7%.
• Also probably not surprising: the group recognized for its plate discipline has recorded the highest median walk rate, at 8.6%.
• Three players were designated as possessing three of the five best tools in their respective organization: Michael Bourn, Billy Butler, and Joey Votto. That triumvirate has combined for about 65 wins to date over ca. 12,000 career plate appearances — or about 3.0 WAR for every 550 plate appearances.