I’m Sure Banny Already Knows But…

Brian Bannister made quite the saber splash this off-season when he professed his love of sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis to unearth exactly what would make him successful. One of his goals involved staying ahead of the hitters, which would in turn reduce his BABIP against. For the most part, this worked in 2007, as he kept hitters at bay with a .266 BABIP. This well below the average mark helped his 3.87 ERA vastly outdo his 4.40 FIP.

In addition to balls put in play against him failing more often than most others to result in hits, his HR/FB was a very low 6.8%. If the average in this category is around 11-12%, then not only was he successful in preventing hits, but he didn’t give up much in the home run department either. So why the 4.40 FIP? Well, he didn’t strike anyone out and his BB/9 was not ridiculously low relative to the strikeout total. All told, his K/BB was a meager 1.75 last year.

This year, things have seemingly changed. His 5.96 ERA is over two full runs worse, his HR/FB has just about doubled to 12%, and 11 of his 25 starts have resulted in five or more earned runs crossing the plate. His latest start featured ten runs in one inning. Though he has definitely had some great games this year, when 44% of your starts involve 5+ earned runs, then either your controllable skills have faltered or you are very unlucky… or both.

If his controllable skills had truly imploded, then his FIP likely wouldn’t be just a half-run higher than last year. Despite his 5.96 ERA, his FIP is a run lower at 4.94. His HR/9 has jumped from 0.82 to 1.41, but his K/BB has risen from 1.75 to 1.94. Additionally, according to the xFIP statistic kept at The Hardball Times—which normalizes the home run component of FIP—Bannister has actually been pitching better this year.

Last year, when his ERA was 3.87 and FIP was 4.40, his xFIP was 5.14. This year, at 5.96 and 4.94, respectively, his xFIP comes in at 4.79. While he outdid his xFIP in both cases last year in the positive direction, both his ERA and FIP have done the opposite this year. It’s hard to convince people that someone with numbers seemingly as poor as his—a -2.02 WPA, -2.36 REW, and -1.39 WPA/LI—is actually performing a bit better than a year in which his surface numbers looked pretty solid, but this does seem to be the case.

I’m sure Banny the Math Whiz already knows this, but for any Royals fan upset with his performance, it isn’t nearly as bad as it looks.