A Statistical Report for All the Caribbean Leagues at Once
For much the same reason that he published a statistical report yesterday for the Arizona Fall League, the author is publishing here a combined statistical report for the various Caribbean winter leagues that have started play — again, not necessarily because such reports are of great utility for evaluating players, but because they provide a means by which to participate in those leagues which doesn’t also require a substantial investment in transportation and lodging.
In this case, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, and Venezuelan Leagues separately*. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a pair of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2014.
*The fourth major Caribbean league, the Puerto Rican League, doesn’t commence until October 30th.
SCOUT Leaderboard for Caribbean League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Caribbean League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.
| Player | Lg | ’14 Org | ’14 Age | Pos | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Heras | MEX | Astros | 24 | OF | 41 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3.5% | 13.1% | 7.5% | 150 |
| Orlando Arcia | VEN | Brewers | 19 | SS | 42 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 127 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | VEN | White Sox | 23 | C | 20 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2.1% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 126 |
| Carlos Rivero | VEN | Red Sox | 26 | 3B | 41 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3.6% | 9.5% | 17.4% | 125 |
| Henry Rodriguez | VEN | Reds | 24 | 2B | 42 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 123 |
| Marquez Smith | MEX | Reds | 29 | 1B | 36 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3.5% | 10.1% | 19.0% | 119 |
| Yasmani Grandal | DOM | Padres | 25 | C | 17 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2.6% | 11.6% | 17.6% | 118 |
| Mark Minicozzi | VEN | Giants | 31 | LF | 41 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2.5% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 117 |
| Carlos Gastelum | MEX | Mexico | 34 | 2B | 39 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2.3% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 116 |
| Sebastian Elizalde | MEX | Reds | 22 | OF | 40 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 4.1% | 7.4% | 19.5% | 116 |
SCOUT Leaderboard for Caribbean League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT leaderboard for Caribbean League pitchers who’ve recorded at least one start. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | Lg | ’14 Org | ’14 Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kozlowski | MEX | Indy | 33 | 2 | 2 | 10.2 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 77 |
| Alberto Castillo | MEX | N/A | 38 | 2 | 2 | 10.0 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 26.4% | 9.4% | 78 |
| Jose Contreras | MEX | Mexican | 42 | 2 | 2 | 9.2 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 79 |
| Rolando Valdez | MEX | Mexican | 28 | 2 | 2 | 8.0 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 24.1% | 8.4% | 81 |
| Raul Rivero | VEN | N/A | 28 | 3 | 3 | 15.0 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 82 |
| James Gillheeney | MEX | Mariners | 26 | 2 | 2 | 9.1 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 21.9% | 6.7% | 83 |
| Luis Niebla | MEX | Yankees | 23 | 2 | 2 | 7.2 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 84 |
| Arturo Lopez | MEX | Mexican | 31 | 2 | 2 | 10.1 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 86 |
| Nestor Molina | VEN | White Sox | 25 | 2 | 1 | 5.0 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 88 |
| Randall Delgado | DOM | D-backs | 24 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 88 |
Notes and Observations
• Outfielder Leo Heras was, at one point, among the most talented and young players in the Mexican League. Now a part of the Houston system, he’s less young but still reasonably talented. As a 24-year-old with Double-A Corpus Christi, Heras produced a nearly even walk-strikeout differential (13.9% BB, 15.5% K) and 19-for-23 stolen-base record over 375 plate plate appearances. Mostly a center fielder in Mexico, he split his time between left and right fields in affiliated baseball this season — possibly because he lacks the tools to play center or possibly because teammates Andrew Aplin, Delino DeShields, and Teoscar Hernandez are more qualified than him. This winter so far, Heras has continued to exhibit excellent control of the strike zone.
• The most promising name one finds here — on account of he’s just 20 years old and also plays shortstop — is Milwaukee prospect Orlando Arcia. The brother of Minnesota’s Oswaldo, Arcia has exhibited a contact-oriented approach as a profession, recording a 11.9% strikeout rate this season as just a 19-year-old in the High-A Florida State League. Over 42 plate appearances in the Venezuelan Winter League, he’s produced an expected strikeout rate of 10.4%. With regard to his defense, Arcia’s profile from Baseball America’s 2014 Prospect Handbook reads like a paean to it, citing his range and footwork and hands.
• While a number of promising young players have, to date, produced compelling Caribbean League lines, that’s less the case for the league’s pitchers. Indeed, only three of the Caribbean’s top-10 pitchers are 25 or younger — and one of them (Randall Delgado) has already recorded more than 300 innings in the majors. Of some interest perhaps is Raul Rivero — if only because he most recently pitched in the Italian League and the concept of the Italian League is a charming one.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.