A Very Current Statistical Report for the Arizona Fall League
Last year during October and November, the author published a series of statistical reports on the Arizona Fall League — less because such reports are of great utility to prospect analysis, and more because, for those of us currently not residing in the Greater Phoenix area, one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league is by dwelling for too long on very small statistical samples.
What follows is an example of such a statistical report for this year’s iteration of the AFL, currently about 12 or 13 games into its season.
SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter O’Brien | D-backs | 23 | 49 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3.0% | 17.0% | 20.4% | 135 |
| Matt Olson | Athletics | 20 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 3.3% | 13.7% | 18.9% | 131 |
| Daniel Robertson | Athletics | 20 | 35 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2.0% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 127 |
| Patrick Kivlehan | Mariners | 24 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 3.1% | 11.2% | 15.8% | 127 |
| D.J. Peterson | Mariners | 22 | 43 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1.9% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 123 |
| Austin Nola | Marlins | 24 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.5% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 120 |
| Brandon Drury | D-backs | 21 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2.5% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 120 |
| Herschel Powell | Athletics | 21 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2.7% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 116 |
| Roman Quinn | Phillies | 21 | 55 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 1.2% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 116 |
| Jesse Winker | Reds | 20 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2.6% | 12.0% | 20.5% | 114 |
SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT leaderboard for AFL pitchers who’ve recorded at least one start. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | Team | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Zimmer | Royals | 22 | 3 | 3 | 9.2 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 31.4% | 10.6% | 72 |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 21 | 2 | 2 | 9.0 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 25.4% | 9.2% | 84 |
| Mark Appel | Astros | 22 | 3 | 3 | 12.0 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 85 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | Cardinals | 21 | 2 | 2 | 8.1 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 87 |
| Robbie Ray | Tigers | 22 | 2 | 2 | 5.0 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 25.3% | 10.5% | 88 |
| Joely Rodriguez | Pirates | 22 | 3 | 3 | 9.1 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 89 |
| Sean Nolin | Blue Jays | 24 | 3 | 3 | 5.1 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 95 |
| Matt Magill | Dodgers | 24 | 3 | 2 | 9.0 | 41 | 10 | 5 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 95 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Marlins | 24 | 2 | 2 | 7.0 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 96 |
| Jayson Aquino | Rockies | 21 | 2 | 2 | 7.0 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 97 |
Notes and Observations
• Traded at the most recent July 31st deadline from the Yankees to the Diamondbacks, Arizona’s Peter O’Brien features one of the top WAR projections among all rookie-eligible players entering the 2015 season — largely on the strength, that projection, of his raw power. In addition to having recorded the second-most home runs among AFL batters, O’Brien also leads the league thus far with 13 walks — five more than second place Daniel Robertson’s total by that measure.
• Before receiving a 50-game suspension in early July after testing positive for an amphetamine, Oakland prospect Herschel Powell (known as Boog) had produced a promising age-21 season, recording walk and strikeout rates of 16.2% and 14.2%, respectively, in 365 plate appearances between Class- and High-A while also paying center field almost exclusively. Of Powell’s defensive skills in center, MLB.com’s Jim Callis referred to them as “solid.” A compelling combination of offensive and defensive skills, it would appear, for a former 20th-round selection.
• After missing almost the entirety of the 2014 season (all except 4.2 innings of it) to a combination of biceps tendinitis and then a strained lat muscle, Kansas City right-hander Kyle Zimmer was excellent over three starts in the AFL, exhibiting a fastball at 96 mph a plus-plus curveball, according to Baseball America’s Bill Mitchell — and producing similarly impressive defense-independent numbers. Unfortunately, the Kansas City Star’s Andy McCullough now reports that, after feeling tightness in his right shoulder last week, Zimmer has been shut down for duration of the AFL.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.