All the Non-Tendered Players, By the Projections
Tuesday night represented the deadline for clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. MLB Trade Rumors has rendered a service to the public by publishing a list of those players who were not tendered contracts by their respective clubs and who have, as a result, become free agents.
What follows is suspiciously like the aforementioned MLB Trade Rumors’ post, except for that the author — who remains employed by the present site for uncertain reasons — has also included the Steamer projections for all the non-tendered players prorated to 600 plate appearances for hitters (450 PA for catchers) and 200 innings for pitchers (65 IP for relievers).
Hitters
Here are the prorated Steamer projections, sorted by WAR, for those hitters who were non-tendered by their clubs:
# | Name | Age | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kyle Blanks | 28 | 1B/OF | 600 | .251 | .322 | .426 | 111 | 7.6 | -9.7 | 1.8 |
2 | Everth Cabrera | 28 | SS | 600 | .251 | .312 | .336 | 84 | -7.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
3 | Andy Dirks | 29 | OF | 600 | .259 | .321 | .394 | 101 | 0.8 | -7.5 | 1.3 |
4 | Carlos Rivero | 27 | 3B | 600 | .257 | .303 | .373 | 87 | -8.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
5 | Justin Smoak | 28 | 1B | 600 | .238 | .324 | .400 | 105 | 0.6 | -10.3 | 1.0 |
6 | Slade Heathcott | 24 | OF | 600 | .246 | .301 | .383 | 90 | -6.9 | -3.2 | 1.0 |
7 | Andrew Brown | 30 | OF | 600 | .238 | .307 | .403 | 99 | -0.6 | -10.2 | 0.9 |
8 | Gordon Beckham | 28 | 2B | 600 | .243 | .294 | .358 | 83 | -11.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
9 | Eric Young | 30 | OF | 600 | .243 | .311 | .334 | 83 | -6.9 | -5.2 | 0.7 |
10 | Juan Francisco | 28 | 1B/3B | 600 | .225 | .289 | .411 | 95 | -4.0 | -9.5 | 0.6 |
11 | Adam Rosales | 32 | IF | 600 | .239 | .297 | .355 | 84 | -11.5 | -1.2 | 0.6 |
12 | John Mayberry | 31 | OF | 600 | .233 | .300 | .385 | 93 | -5.2 | -9.6 | 0.4 |
13 | Daniel Descalso | 28 | 2B/3B | 600 | .242 | .311 | .342 | 83 | -10.2 | -5.6 | 0.3 |
14 | John Baker | 34 | C | 450 | .203 | .276 | .271 | 54 | -24.0 | 5.8 | -0.5 |
Pitchers
Here are the prorated Steamer projections, sorted by WAR, for those pitchers who were non-tendered by their clubs:
# | Name | Age | Hand | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kris Medlen | 29 | RHP | 200 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 3.98 | 1.9 |
2 | Brandon Beachy | 28 | RHP | 200 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 4.47 | 0.8 |
3 | Wesley Wright | 30 | LHP | 65 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 3.60 | 0.2 |
4 | David Huff | 30 | LHP | 65 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 3.79 | 0.1 |
5 | Wade LeBlanc | 30 | LHP | 65 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 3.87 | 0.0 |
6 | Alexi Ogando | 31 | RHP | 65 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
7 | Curtis Partch | 28 | RHP | 65 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 4.13 | 0.0 |
8 | Jose Campos | 22 | RHP | 65 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 4.23 | 0.0 |
9 | Yoslan Herrera | 34 | RHP | 65 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.93 | -0.1 |
10 | Logan Ondrusek | 30 | RHP | 65 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.97 | -0.1 |
11 | Francisley Bueno | 34 | LHP | 65 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 4.08 | -0.1 |
12 | Chaz Roe | 28 | RHP | 65 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 4.17 | -0.1 |
13 | Michael Kirkman | 28 | LHP | 65 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 4.51 | -0.2 |
14 | Scott Carroll | 30 | RHP | 65 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4.65 | -0.3 |
15 | Kraig Sitton | 26 | LHP | 65 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
16 | Gus Schlosser | 26 | RHP | 65 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 4.91 | -0.9 |
17 | Scott Snodgress | 25 | LHP | 200 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 5.74 | -1.4 |
Three Brief Notes
Here are three brief notes of limited utility:
• While the prorated WAR projections provide a reasonable estimate of each player’s present true talent, it’s also true that a number of the players here, due to injury, are unlikely to play a full season. Former Atlanta right-handers Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen, for example, both underwent Tommy John procedures last spring and won’t approach pitch a full complement of innings in 2015 — a major factor, no doubt, in the Braves’ decision not to tender them contracts.
• There are a number of players here who appear likely to provide value in 2015 — just not at the price their salaries would have dictated at this point on their respective arbitration calendars. Matt Swartz’ has created a model for projecting arbitration salaries, available here. One finds, for example, that Gordon Beckham, projected to produce about a win in 2015, would have likely earned $5.0 million by way of arbitration — a bit expensive for what amounts to a bench player at this point.
• Kyle Blanks and Andrew Brown were invoked in these pages recently as potential sources of right-handed power available at a relatively affordable cost in the context of those seemingly inflated contracts given recently to Billy Butler, Michael Cuddyer, and Nelson Cruz.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Where’s Gaby Sanchez? Probably the best bet for right handed power of all non-tenders. Did he already sign somewhere or just an oversight.
I think Blanks is really interesting, while Sanchez probably has less variance.