Braves Sign Nick Markakis, Cause Head Scratching
Over the last few days, rumors circulated that the Braves were pushing hard to sign Nick Markakis, so this morning, Mike Petriello wrote up a piece on Markakis’ value, questioning just MLB teams see in him that we don’t see. He didn’t find an answer, and besides durability, I don’t really have one either, but clearly the Atlanta Braves see something in Nick Markakis that they really value, as Jeff Passan reports they’ve signed him to a four year, ~$44 million contract.
Source: OF Nick Markakis agrees to four-year deal with Atlanta Braves. Dollars unclear, but sides discussed a deal in neighborhood of $44M.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 3, 2014
Rather than just re-hash what Mike wrote this morning, I’ll just quote his conclusion.
Let’s say you disagree with Markakis’ defensive ratings, that you prefer to think of him as a 2 WAR player, which isn’t unfair. That’s a league-average player. Markakis seems like a league-average player. If wins are somewhere around $7 million this winter, you can make the argument that he’s worth $14 million next year. Let’s even call it $15 million, if you really like not striking out. But even if we go with that, he’s already shown that the last two years are the start of his decline. A four-year deal easily takes you to below-average or replacement or worse. It’s hard to see a team coming out ahead on that.
When I started this, I really wanted to see what I’d been missing. I wanted to know why the public perception and the advanced metrics seem so far apart. I’m not really sure I accomplished that. Markakis is a steady player, nothing more, with little upside remaining and age squarely against him, one who could look worse outside of Camden depending on where he winds up. Some team is going to pay heavily for that. Some team is going to regret doing so.
Maybe the Braves believe they can get him to rediscover his power. Maybe they think he’s really an above average defender, not a below average one. You can stretch and see how this could kinda work, if you didn’t also see Nori Aoki — they are the same player, basically — sitting around looking to sign for half this price, most likely. But more likely, Markakis is what he is, and the Braves will end up wondering why they spent $44 million on an underpowered corner outfielder entering his decline years.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
A couple times during discussions with Jays fans, he was called the Greek God of Mediocrity. That’s a fairly accurate assessment, ha.
If you thought that was a head-scratcher, try out Saunders for Happ straight up.
Even better Saunders has more WAR than Markakis over the last 3 seasons and is considered an underachiever/injury prone.
Well, technically Saunders considered an underachiever by just that one guy.
Him signing for 4/44 makes me wonder if DD flubbed it by not tendering him a QO.
This, me thinks, is a good point. Initial response in Oriole-land here is to blame Angelos for being cheap, but I think Duquette may have screwed this up a bit. First of all he bought out the mutual $17.5 mil option on Markakis for $2 mil instead of executing it to see if Nick would decline and save him the $2 mil. Then, once he’s declined $17.5 mil for 2015 he obviously would decline the $15.3 QO. Worst case scenario he accepts the option year and you have Markakis in his age 31 season for $17.5 mil a year after he’s been a 2.5-3 WAR player.
Completely agree. Maybe Markakis accepts the mutual option, in which case you’re overpaying him by about $5 million next year only. This is not much in modern baseball.
The only thing that makes me feel OK about this for the O’s not getting a compensation pick is that those picks aren’t really that valuable. It’s better to have them than not, but play around with the Baseball Reference engine for pick No. 30, No. 31, No. 32, etc. all time and you see that even ordinary major league regulars aren’t found all that often there.
For example (because I love that engine so much): the best No. 33 overall pick ever — EVER! — is Mike Gallego, 17.1 WAR. Dave Burba is second.
Y’know, I’ve been more-or-less with the Braves front office up until now. This just makes me think they have no idea what they’re doing. Reminds me of the Chris Johnson deal, although Markakis is a better player than Johnson–just raises the question of why this player at this time?
It looks like they’re just spinning their wheels.
Well, they did trade for and sign Dan Uggla to a big contract too, so they must know something about signing up a player on the downside of his career who may or may not be good defensively at his position.
Of course, I didn’t say they knew something good about it…
I’m just glad that the rumors about the Giants interest did not come to fruition.
Another stupid overly-long overpay for an already-declining player. Atlanta, WTH?
At least B.J. Upton was reasonably young when he signed his deal.
But now the Braves can cry poverty when they dump Justin Upton and Gattis for 50 cents on the dollar. After which they can sign Stephen Drew for 4/44 to be their new 2B.
I’m a huge Braves fan and try to get behind each of their moves, and I just can’t find anything to get behind on this one. He’s going to be just another contract albatross for this time in a couple years (or less)… Just don’t get it.
I agree with what you all are sayings. Markakis is a declining 31 year old outfielder with not a ton of upside and overrated defense. But he also is a decent contact hitter who works counts and could lead off, and who does not hurt you as a defender. I don’t thin he rediscovers his power or finds some type of All star resurgence in Atlanta. I feel the braves may overvalue him because his skillset is in big contrast to the lineups we have put together over the past few years, and he can be a good start for Kevin Seitzer to change the hitting philosophy of our team. This deal pays for more than just stats, it pays for a good clubhouse presence and reliability that, while it may not jump off the paper or produce head turning stats, it provides a nice stable influence for a lineup that has been way to up and down over the past few years. He is not Heyward, nor does he have his upside, but getting him at the third of the price for heyward, plus 10 years of control for two talented young pitchers is not a bad haul. Sometimes, overpaying f
Overpaying for reliability may not make much much sense, but still holds value. I really feel that think Markakis can be the veteran piece for the clubhouse that we have been missing either the departure of Hudson and chipper and McCann over the past few years.
Honest question…how much would you pay for a guaranteed 2 WAR player?
No upside, no downside. Guaranteed 2 WAR.
Well, at least they only spent $1.6 on Jim Johnson SMH.
Ruben Amaro Jr., you now have competition for the most inept GM in the NL East cellar.
Jim Johnson, who was a plus reliever for four years running before last? With one of the best pitching coaches in the bigs to try and fix him?
That’s really funny. Your statement suggests that Doug Jones and Curt Young are bums.
Given Roger McDowell’s history, Jim Johnson has a higher probability of Tommy John surgery than being “fixed.” In fact, Johnson has a higher probability of multiple Tommy John surgeries.
However, $1.6 million for Johnson is a fine gamble.
No problem with the Jim Johnson signing, to be honest with you. But when that’s by far the best move a front office has done in an offseason (because it actually doesn’t hurt the club), that’s the head-smacking part.
Forgive my English, my fat fingers evidently hate the iPhone buttons.
If the Braves were in the M’s position, I could squint and like this okay. 4/44 with no QO for Markakis is an overpay, but I could see Markakis aging decently since he’s shown athleticism. However, where the Braves are now this makes no sense. Should have just rolled with a scrub, given Chris Johnson away for some salary relief and gone after Chase Headley. He at least has enough upside to possibly be a very good player in 2017. Markakis, I’m praying for just “below average” by then.
They would have been better off giving Frenchy a non-roster invite to fill RF while they rebuild.
In other words, they made a worse decision than Ruben Freaking Amaro Jr.
Hope they enjoy hearing the crickets at their new ballpark….
This may be the most salient point of all…are the Braves rebuilding for 2017? If so, the markakis signing makes little sense. Or, are they having a last go in 2015, with Upton’s last year? If so, the Heyward trade makes no sense.
The Braves are paying Markakis to be worth in the neighborhood of 6 WAR over the next 4 seasons, his age-31 to age-34 seasons. He’s been worth less than 6 WAR over the last 4 seasons, ages 27-30…presumably, his prime.
Somebody owes somebody something. Or, he is related to someone in the front office…?
John Coppolella must be trapped in front office Hell. John Hart and Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz sure are teaching that young buck a lesson or two on how to organize a baseball team!
The Braves could have kept Heyward, kept La Stella, signed a couple bench guys, plugged in a couple prospects and reasonably expect to compete for at least a wild card spot. If you can’t get deals done with Heyward or Upton, take the potential 90 wins and the draft picks and move on. You’d have both of those guys’ salaries coming off the books, as well as Dan Uggla’s, after the 2015 season. Also, most of the extensions they handed out last winter don’t start to see big raises until a little further down the line.
I’ve always questioned their decision to rebuild while they already had a very good team coming off a strange down year. But this has already got the makings of a pretty bad rebuilding job, and signing Markakis makes it worse. I can just see John Hart and Fredi Gonzalez salivating over the fact that Markakis doesn’t strike out a ton. I think that’s the only thing they care about anymore.
I shudder to think that Kirk Gibson is available now. He’d make a perfect “grit coach” for Fredi’s staff.
(And he could play RF if Markakis gets hurt)
Nope.
Why not? They had one bad year after averaging more wins than any other team the previous four years. And most of the players were the same as in those winning years, if not replaced by a better player. The 2013 Braves won 96 games WITH BJ Upton and Dan Uggla and Chris Johnson. Freddy Garcia, Paul Maholm, and Kameron Loe combined to throw like 220 innings that year, too. The Braves were in first place into July, and had a bad couple of months over a span of like 5 years. Why couldn’t they have been a 90-win team?
Was really hoping the braves would get Saunders.
We have a huge crop of ML teams interested in a player. Inspired by that, we begin to wonder if we are missing something. We appeal to our traditional — and certainly less complex than that which goes on in FOs — approach as fans/analysts. We conclude that our gut was right all along, even though we never really did anything to challenge what reflexive assumptions we make in the first place. We proceed to bleat that a player desired as a starter by many teams is as good as one that will likely get a 4th OF role somewhere.
I’m no logician, but something in the above feels a little off.
You have to think Markakis is an allstar to like this deal. If you assume his defense is good, this deal is about fair, but still should not be made by a team in the Braves’ position.
I realize this comment is on an article (briefly) discussing the Barves-Markakis deal, but my comment was more aimed at Mike P.’s ambivalent piece and Dave’s tossed-off genius that Aoki is as good of a player.
“You have to think Markakis is an allstar to like this deal.”
At 7.5M/win, as has been discussed as this offseason’s market rate, he’d have to put up 1.5 WAR/season to be worth it — far from all-star level.
…and then repeat that performance for three more years. Overpaying for a player’s decline years can make sense, if it means you’re underpaying for their prime years. But the chances that the Braves will get 2.5 WAR or more out of Markakis this year are slim, at best.
Let’s assume a standard aging curve here: Markakis was worth 2.5 WAR last year*, so he’ll be worth 2, 1.5, 1, and .5 WAR the next four years. If the value of 1 WAR is 7Mill this year, the Braves are getting their money’s worth. But they’re then assuming that the value of a win will rise much more rapidly than it has in even the very recent past. It just doesn’t make sense, any way you slice it.
(*reminder: this was his best year since 2008)
It’s almost as though I’m made of straw.
I agree with the evaluation here, but the lamenting seems like much ado about nothing to me. If you think Markakis is worth 2/1.5/1.0/0.5 WAR at 7.5/8/8.5/9 million per WAR (6% inflation), then a reasonable contract is 4/40. At 1.5/1.0/0.5/0.0 and 7/7/7/7, then a reasonable contract is 4/21. At 2.5/2.0/1.5/1.0 and 7.5/8.25/9/9.75 (9% inflation), then a reasonable contract is 4/59.
All of these outcomes seem perfectly plausible without anything crazy happening. In fact $7M and no inflation seems most unreasonable expectation. And the variance in reasonable contracts ends about the same as the contract itself. My point is that there’s just not much worth getting worked up about on a $45M contract these days. Is it a great contract? Probably not. But it’s not too hard to see it working out just fine either, and the downside is very small in today’s baseball economy. Copy this post and put it over on Eno’s Billy Butler thread.
His series against the Blue Jays left me scratching my head wondering if you know what you’re talking about.