Before we talk about baseball, let’s talk about the other three major sports. You’re on your own 20 yard line, you march down field on a series of plays, but ultimately, you punt. Or, you march down field and move far enough for a tough field goal that gets made. All those running and passing plays aren’t considered any differently based on the results. The RB got 25 yards on 4 running plays, and no one matches it up to the end result.
In hockey and basketball, a great pass that doesn’t ultimately lead to a goal or basket goes away like a fart in the wind. No one tracks it, and if they do, it’s not considered anything close to the impact of an assist that led to a score.
Why the difference? I think it’s because of the stop-start nature of football, that the “sequence” ends after each play, and the whole drive is 2-5 football minutes or 5-15 human minutes. In hockey and basketball, turnovers happen often enough and each drive lasts 10-30 seconds in sport or human minutes. I think that’s the reason.
So, let’s talk about the leadoff triple. Billy Hamilton gets on third base, and the next three batters strike out. He’s stranded there, no runs score. A fart in the wind triple? Or something much more tangible? Jarrod Dyson gets on third, the next batter hits a medium fly ball out, far enough to let Dyson score. The next two batters strike out. One run scores. That triple is obviously tangible.
How do you see these two triples?
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Well, some people do! And I have on occasion. Regardless, its important to speak for yourself, and not worry about how others have approached the issue. There are no wrong choices here.
A triple is a triple.
It’s not like we go back and add more WPA to the triple that scored.
Well, some people do! And I have on occasion. Regardless, its important to speak for yourself, and not worry about how others have approached the issue. There are no wrong choices here.
My thinking is that the runner on third did nothing to influence the other batter who either struck-out or hit the sac-fly.
You could argue the runner on third’s speed/base-running should increase in value.