When the home team enters the top of the 9th with a 3-run lead, they will win that game 98% of the time. That happens mostly because they get to pick and choose the reliever they want. If they chose a random reliever, they’d win 97% of the time. If they chose a poor reliever, they’d win 96% of the time. It’s pretty tough to mess up a 3-run lead, especially when the home team gets one more crack at it in the bottom of the 9th.

So, we have a SP that went 8, and he hands off to the reliever this 3-run lead. The ace reliever comes in. Let’s call him Armando Benitez. He walks the first batter, allows a HR to the second, then strikes out the side. The game ends, and his team wins. Armando even gets a “save”, whatever that is supposed to imply.

Since he was given a 3-run rope, and he only used 2-runs, he was able to turn a 96% or 98% chance of winning into 100%, all without the help of his fielders. Incredibly, things could have gotten worse, which does happen 2 to 4 percent of the time. In this case, he pitched just bad enough to win.