Carlos Carrasco’s Objectively Most Impressive Changeups
Yesterday, in these electronic pages, FanGraphs contributor and Italian-American street tough Mike Petriello published a much-deserved paean to Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, which right-handed pitcher has recorded the second-highest WAR among all pitchers over the last month and the absolutely lowest park- and league-adjusted xFIP among 111 qualifiers over that same interval.
Among Petriello’s observations is one concerning Carrasco’s split-change to the effect that it (i.e. the split-change) is simultaneously absurd and nearly impossible to hit — appended to which comments, and for the pleasure of the wide readership, were technicolor video examples of the pitch in question.
With a view towards facilitating even more pleasure for that same readership, what I’ve done below is supply three additional examples of Carrasco’s split-change from 2014 — the objectively most impressive examples, actually, where most impressive is defined as those changeups which feature the greatest overall movement relative to a spinless ball and also induced a swinging strike.
For each pitch, I’ve included the relevant batter, the date, the velocity, and then both the horizontal- and vertical-movement figures relative to a spinless ball from the catcher’s perspective, such that a negative horizontal figure denotes armside run from a right-handed pitcher.
No. 3
Batter: Michael Morse Date: April 25th
Velocity: 88.8 mph Movement: -6.0 in. by -3.2 in. (6.8 in.)
Footage:
More Different Footage:
This footage comes from Carrasco’s fourth start of the season — and his last before a transition to the bullpen in late April. Carrasco’s fielding-independent marks against the Giants actually weren’t bad (3.79 FIP and 3.07 xFIP over 6.0 innings), but he conceded four runs and departed the game having recorded a 6.95 over his first four starts.
No. 2
Batter: Marwin Gonzalez Date: August 22nd
Velocity: 88.4 mph Movement: -7.0 in. by -0.2 in. (7.0 in.)
Footage:
More Different Footage:
The Cleveland broadcast team noted after this pitch that Marwin Gonzalez seemed to be attempting to ambush a first-pitch fastball by Carrasco here, but whiffed when he got the changeup instead. What Gonzalez did was ambush a second-pitch fastball, homering to right field. Of course, that needn’t detract from the beauty of this particular offering, whose armside movement is depicted reasonably well in the slow-motion version of the two GIFs above.
No. 1
Batter: David Peralta Date: June 24th
Velocity: 89.3 mph Movement: -7.4 in. by -0.3 in. (7.4 in.)
Footage:
More Different Footage:
According to the potentially flawed methodology described above, this is Carrasco’s most objectively impressive changeup of the season, from a late-June relief appearance. At 89.3 mph, it’s harder than the average fastballs thrown by a fifth of qualified starters — a leaderboard full of which I would insert a link right here had I not accidentally just closed the relevant window.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen that much drop on a pitch that’s nearly 90 mph. Just nasty.
I take it that you’ve never seen Felix Hernandez pitch?
The pitches shown above dropped -3.2, -.2, -.3 inches respectively. This year is the only year in which King Felix has had drop on his change up and it has averaged -.1. No other pitches of his approach 90 mph and have drop.
So you’re comparing a sample of three pitches that were specifically picked to show vertical movement to another pitcher’s average vertical movement? Surely you can see the incoherency in that.
Since you already looked up Hernandez’s average changeup movement you could have also looked up Carrasco’s average; Hernandez (-.1) is leading Carrasco (.1).
According to Brooks Baseball, which is generally the most reliable, Felix has 1.45 inches of rise on average, while Carrasco has -0.31 inches of sink. This is to be expected because Felix’s changeup is much closer to fastball velocity.