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Chatwood was one of the more interesting free agents in this class. Mike Petriello made a case for why Chatwood could be this year’s Charlie Morton, a high-velocity guy with a high-spin curveball who just needs a change of scenery. He was always likely to sign with an analytically-inclined organization, and the Cubs certainly qualify.
Chatwood ranked 17th among our Top 50 free agents heading into the off-season, with projections that work out to roughly league-average pitching when he’s on the mound, with durability a legitimate question.
Contract Estimate
| Type |
Years |
AAV |
Total |
| Dave Cameron |
3 |
$10.0 M |
$30.0 M |
| Median Crowdsource |
0.0 |
$0.0 M |
$0.0 M |
| Avg Crowdsource |
0.0 |
$0.0 M |
$0.0 M |
2018 Steamer Forecast
| Age |
IP |
BB% |
K% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
RA9-WAR |
| 28 |
128.0 |
10.4% |
19.3% |
53.4% |
4.32 |
4.39 |
4.36 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
I projected he’d get $30 million over three years, but it sounds like he did a bit better than that.
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At nearly $40 million, Chatwood is no huge bargain, but there are definitely things to like about having him as a back-end starter with upside. There’s also plenty of risk here, of course, and the fact that an upside play with a limited track record of success costs $40 million tells you that this is a good winter to be a free agent pitcher.
Is it just me or is 13mm per year a little high?
Maybe. Chatwood didn’t get the QA from the Rockies, so he didn’t cost the Cubs a draft pick. Could make up for the cash. Maybe?
If you go by his numbers away from Coors, it’s probably the right price. Fair but definitely not a bargain.
You have to put a lot of faith in his ability to limit contact outside of Coors. His BABIP last year on the road was .217. Although his career road BABIP is .272.
They must be banking on a Kyle Hendricks-type of situation outside of Coors, although he walks way more than Kendricks (and I think strikes out less as well).
I also think they are banking on being able to change the effectiveness of his repertoire/stuff simply by taking Coors and its diminishment of repertoire/stuff out of his head.
And they may be right. Away – he has improved over the years. At home – he has struggled and has basically not improved at all with more MLB experience. I can easily see where that struggle-at-home has gotten into his head – and by getting rid of that, he can make a nice leap forward in an environment that will now be 100% ‘normal’ rather than 50/50 split between normal/moon.
That said – I don’t think his improvement is a Hendricks control-type one. I think its more a stuff or pitch-mix type.
Yeah, I was thinking of Hendricks in terms of results, not style.
In general I think it’s a good idea to buy low on guys coming out of Colorado but I don’t think this is buying low.
Just not sold yet, but maybe the new Cubs pitching coach will make this look really good.
$40 million buys about 4.5 WAR at free agent prices. Looks like that’s exactly what he’ll be projected for, since he’s projecting for 1.6 WAR next year.
Yeah, but no one actually wants to pay $10 million a win. That’s just what we’ve figured out it has cost teams in retrospect, which includes a bunch of players totally busting in their new locations.
The Cubs are almost certainly on banking on something better than that.
When the guy running the front office is getting paid ten million per year he has to pay more for everyone.
I guess.
The Cubs literally have infinite money.
You keep using that word … I do not think it means what you think it means.
He’s a helluva defensive pitcher and can also hit a little bit. His 4.69 ERA came out to a 94 ERA- so the Cubs are pretty much banking on him to provide a little bit of everything if you ask me. A career .217 BA from a pitcher is pretty good. And if his walk rate and/or homer rate comes down a bit, he looks even better.
Being 27 and throwing 95 MPH probably moved this price higher, but still love this signing. Better than $70 million for Ian Kennedy.
Most free agent signings are better than $70 million for Ian Kennedy.
Update:
Better than Zimmerman, Chen, Leake, Kazmir, Kennedy, Pelfrey, Volquez, Hammel, T. Wood.
Basically, 3/4 of the multi year free agent pitching contracts the last two offseason have been objectively horrid.
Seems like a weirdly arbitrary comparison to make. “Better than one of the worst free agent signings from 2 years ago” is damning with faint praise.
Does the Steamer forecast know he’s not pitching in Colorado? This is a nice get by the Cubs.
Nice payday. Perhaps organizations are seeing multi-inning relief guy as something of a failsafe for these good stuff/ questionable durability guys and making them more comfortable being generous than when they were just seen as ‘risky’ starters.
$38 M what’s that value him as 1.5 WAR? Cubs need rotation depth though.
If any other team signed him, it would be an overpay, but because it was the Cubs, it’s “Crafty”.
:ROLLEYES:
My prediction: 75 innings of 4.75+ ERA ball before he’s demoted to mop-up duty/long relief.
It’s true that people may think this but Chatwood is probably a solid pitcher nevertheless. Looks like neither an overpay nor a major bargain. At $9M/win they are paying for an average of 1.4 WAR per year which is sensible.
WTF he basically said they overpaid by $10M – 33%.
I’m saying this is more than an overpay, this is a foolish.
Player A: Career 15.6% K%, 10.7% BB%, 54.7% GB rate, 4.58 FIP, 4.31ERA, 93.2mph avg fb
Player B: Career 16.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 51.2% GB rate, 4.42 FIP, 4.48 ERA, 95.1mph avg fb
Player A is Tyler Chatwood, who was given $38 million by the Cubs, Player B is Wily Peralta, who was given $1.5 million by the Royals.
And Wily is only 6 months older than Chatwood…
Player B kept his ERA under 8 this year by the skin of his teeth. That’s a relevant data point.
Player B also posted a 4.35 FIP…at Triple-A.
Chatwood is a risky buy, no doubt, but he’s a risky buy with an OK 2017 and a good 2016 in his rearview mirror, plus some intriguing peripherals. And he pitched primarily at Coors. There are enough reasons to like this deal, even if it came a price higher than expected (I had him pegged for 2/24).
Charlie Morton had arguably more success before he got his deal this year for 2/14. Sure it was coming off a hamstring injury, but it wasn’t an arm or shoulder issue. IMO a fair deal for Chatwood would have been 2/15 with a team option for 10, 2 mil buyout.
And by the way, Steamer has Peralta projected for a 4.31FIP/4.44 xFIP, which would be worth about 2 WAR in 150 innings.
Player A pitched half his games in Coors.
While I am not certain about the signing myself, this isn’t totally fair to Chatwood.
Wily Career FIP- of 110, Chatwood 108
Using career numbers is pretty misleading as it gives equal credit to Peralta’s good years, which are at least 3 years in the rear view mirror.
Over their last 300 innings (roughly), Chatwood’s ERA+ is at 115. Peralta’s is 77.
The price is a lot higher than expected. Dave gave him 3 years/$30 million and MLB trade rumors only had him at 3 years/$20 million.
I think it’s wrong to say Chatwood and Peralta are so similar. Their career numbers aren’t too far apart, since 2016, Chatwood has a 87/102/102 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- and Peralta is at 134/114/106. Chatwood has a 0.321 xwOBA, Peralta 0.346. Chatwood has been reasonably durable since TJS, Peralta has not since 2014.
Quite frankly, it’s going to be hard to find a deal quite like Charlie Morton’s. Morton was a great find and in this analytical age, every team is scrambling to try to find the next big thing. Chatwood has some interesting skills that might make him a potential bargain, although admittedly it’s going to be harder at this price.
Player B seems to have moved to the bullpen this year which probably played a pretty big role in the difference.
as I posted elsewhere here:
Pitcher A:
19-29, 5.25era, 59gs, 1.628 whip
Pitcher B:
21-17, 3.31era, 54gs, 1.335 whip
Chatwood’s home (A) and away (B) splits, lifetime.
Not a Cubs fan. But it seems a pretty savvy signing to me. Especially when you have gobs of money, and need some decent (to good) SP ips.
I’ll put this one in the technically true but misleading category.
Player A also pitched his home games at Coors. Player B’s career stats are bolstered by pitching better in 2013 and 2014 than he has in recent years.
The Cardinals signed Mikolas for 2 years at 15 million. The Cubs signed Chatwood for 3 years at 40 million. We’ll see which is a better buy.
just three years helps a lot
Does this mean the Cubs are assuming they’re out on Ohtani?
I wouldn’t think so. Only Lester, Hendricks and Quintana seemed guaranteed a rotation spot before Chatwood. Now #5 is Montgomery. If the Cubs get Ohtani or anyone else, Montgomery goes back to the pen.
And then you start thinking about depth.
I don’t think it is smart to put Ohtani in a regular rotation. If he is hitting he probably needs extra rest. I am guessing Ohtani will have a special schedule, and whoever signs him will still need 5 other SP
Pitcher A:
19-29, 5.25era, 59gs, 1.628 whip
Pitcher B:
21-17, 3.31era, 54gs, 1.335 whip
Chatwood’s home (A) and away (B) splits, lifetime.
Not a Cubs fan. But it seems a pretty savvy signing to me. Especially when you have gobs of money, and need some decent (to good) SP ips.
The numbers left out in (B) though are a career 4.19 FIP and 4.40 xFIP on the road.
Granted, with the money in baseball today, around 3 / $40 simply isn’t going to sign a free agent starting pitcher unless he has some question marks. Chatwood’s career peripherals on the road, however, include a 16.2% K rate and 10.7% walk rate, which are what’s driving that fairly high road FIP.
Maybe the Cubs have a reasonable basis to think that he’ll improve his overall approach if he doesn’t pitch half of his games at Coors, but I wouldn’t count on a road ERA that far below his road FIP being sustainable.
His peripherals are basically the same at home and the road. The difference is he gets hammered at home and does a good job of limiting contact on the road. I don’t think it is likely that that Chatwood is going to consistently get good BABIP luck, but he might get it enough to outperform the FIP. Might. This signing has ???? written all over it.
The Cubs lost $59.4M in salary from Arrieta $15.6M, Davis $10M, Lackey $16M, Duensing $2M, Avila $2M, Jay $8M & Rondon $5.8M. They have the money from FA lost to sign anyone. Is this a signing by the Cubs because they have a LOT of young players that will get their payday in the next couple of years? I fully understand Charwood’s MPH went up to 95 this year and his stats away from Coors field where a little better than decent. But even away from Coors field he walks almost 1 guy per 2 innings. He is a decent #5 starter. Myself, I don’t like this signing
To quote an article from Dave Cameron written about 6 weeks ago ago: “when you need two full-time rotation guys, a closer, and a bunch of solid pitching depth, $40-$50 million goes quickly” ( https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-already-need-to-retool/ ). That solid pitching depth may include 1 or more setup relievers from the Morrow, Reed, or Shaw tier of free agents, who are expected to get multi-year contracts at or approaching $10 million per year. So something like one of those guys plus bringing back Wade Davis plus Chatwood would cost the Cubs about $40 million per year, with one rotation spot still to be filled.
And, yes, part of if it is that the younger players are starting to get more expensive, whether that’s from arbitration or seeing if the team can agree to extensions with them. This year Bryant, Hendricks, and Russell each hit their first arbitration year. They project to go from making a combined total of about $2.3 million in 2017 to around $16 million, using the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration estimates. And figure that number goes up something like 50% in 2019 if those players perform consistent with prior years, plus other players (Baez, Schwarber, Edwards, Montgomery) will start arbitration in 2019.
The price seems high, being as Chatwood has had *two* Tommy John surgeries. (Wikipedia mentions one in 2014, but the Denver Post reports he also had one in 2006, in his teens.)
Walking that many batters will eventually catch up to you, even if you are a ground ball pitcher.
Even for a team with supposedly deep pockets it sure seems like an overpay in either years or $$ for a guy who has had two TJ surgeries and doesn’t miss many bats despite mid 90s heat. Wonder why Theo couldn’t have gotten him on a 1 or 2 year guaranteed contract with a club option for a third year. I guess it shows how weak of a class of SP there are this year.