Dodgers Spending Big to Bring Back Core
In a weak free agent class, no team looked as vulnerable to being picked clean in free agency like the Dodgers; by our rankings, they were potentially set to lose the #2, #6, and #8 free agents in this class, in Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Rich Hill. Last week, they made sure they’d bring back at least one of the three by signing Hill to a three year, $48 million contract; today, it sounds like they’re going to get the other two as well.
Sources: #Dodgers close on both Turner AND Jansen.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 12, 2016
Hear #Dodgers Turner were close at 4 yrs, $64M, but could be higher total with deferrals to keep current value down.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 12, 2016
Dodgers source confirms 5yrs $80m with Jansen
— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) December 12, 2016
In prior years, the Dodgers preferred to eschew free agency, making trades to round out their roster instead, often taking on salary in order to build up their base of young talent. This year, the Dodgers are just using their hoards of cash to keep their roster together. The three will cost about $50 million per year for the next three years, then Jansen and Turner will cost about $35 million per year for the final two years of their deals, so clearly, the Dodgers resources are being put to use here.
But it’s also worth noting that, for what they’re getting, these seem mostly like pretty good deals. I had Turner and Hill rated as my top two free agent bargains headed into the winter, and that was at presumed prices of 4/$82M for Turner and 2/$48M for Hill. In the end, they got both for significantly less than what I expected.
You can certainly quibble with giving $80 million to a reliever; the odds of Jansen still being a lights out reliever in a few years are pretty slim. That one is definitely a win-now move with some likely long-term pain associated with the cost of acquiring an elite bullpen arm. But whatever overpay you think Jansen might be getting, Turner is likely to offset that with his expected savings.
At 4/$64M, Turner is getting just a bit more than Josh Reddick, but, uh, Turner is a lot better than Reddick.
Our projections from the Top 50 free agents post.
| Type | Years | AAV | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Cameron | 4 | $20.5 M | $82.0 M |
| Avg Crowdsource | 4 | $17.2 M | $70.9 M |
| Median Crowdsource | 4 | $17.0 M | $68.0 M |
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 560 | 8.3% | 17.5% | .284 | .353 | .466 | .352 | 120 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Type | Years | AAV | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Cameron | 3 | $15.0 M | $45.0 M |
| Avg Crowdsource | 4 | $13.7 M | $49.3 M |
| Median Crowdsource | 4 | $14.0 M | $56.0 M |
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 525 | 9.0% | 13.9% | .271 | .337 | .451 | .337 | 109 | 7.3 | -3.4 | 2.2 |
Turner is not that much worse of a hitter than Edwin Encarnacion, only he can also play the field. The power isn’t the same, and teams continue to pay less for singles and doubles than home runs, but Turner gets to a similar overall value, and when you toss in the ability to play third base, 4/$64M in this market seems like a steal.
We’ll have more on these signings once they become official, but the Dodgers have made it clear that they’re going for it again, and this time, they’re just doing it the old fashioned way.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
For the next 5 years, Jensen will get a quarter of a million dollars per inning pitched. Great work if you can get it.
I’m personally hoping they pay him about $80 million per world series ring.
You can probably find one a little bit cheaper on ebay
Justin Turner putting the hometown in hometown discount.
Born: Long Beach, CA
HS: Lakewood, CA
College: Cal State Fullerton
Non-tendered free agency: LA Dodgers
Full service time free agency: LA Dodgers
The So Cal connection has to be a big factor. That, plus not as many suitors out there for Turner as the other guys.
If the Cardinals spend on Trumbo or Encarnacion as is rumored, one might be inclined to believe that Turner was never an option for them given the seemingly overwhelming geographical preference of Mr. Turner.
I can’t fathom that Justin Turner contract. This is about as good an offseason as the Dodgers could have hoped for.
To be fair, Jansen does have a chance to remind us why we all used to hate all reliever contracts.
4/$64M seems like something the Cardinals could have matched with ease. What a deal for the Dodgers.
But the Cardinals are not in SoCal, so it seemingly wouldn’t have mattered.
Turner is a great deal at that price. Don’t understand why teams willingly pass up bargains on good players because they’re not a certain type of player.
Speaking of the So Cal connection, I’m sure his girly wanted him to stay in LA. You can’t blame the guy: http://fabwags.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/justin-turner-kourtney-elizabeth-5.jpg
I’d choose to live somewhere with so much smog that sun exposure is less of an issue too if I had his complexion.
Considering how long Mariano Rivera effectively threw nothing but cutters, I’d think Jansen has a better chance to age well than most relievers.
For all the stories in recent years about how dysfunctional the Dodgers clubhouse and management has been, this is some very nice evidence that things seem to have changed.
Are you talking about the Mccourt era? I didn’t know that ending was still news