Giants Out on Giancarlo Stanton Too
The Marlins struck two deals to trade Giancarlo Stanton and most of his remaining contract, one with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the other with the San Francisco Giants. Earlier today, the Cardinals announced that they were out of the running, and now, the Giants have made the same concession.
#SFGiants also announce they are out on Stanton.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 8, 2017
Stanton and his representatives likely imagined this exact scenario when they signed a long-term deal with Jeffrey Loria, knowing that the day would come when the Marlins decided that they only really wanted those first few cheap years, not the expensive ones at the end of the deal. Getting a full no-trade clause gives Stanton the ability to decide exactly where he wants to play, and apparently, it isn’t San Francisco either.
While there are some attractive things about the franchise, it’s not an entirely surprising decision. AT&T Park is one of the worst places to hit in all of baseball, and if Stanton is planning on opting out in three years, he probably stands a better chance of getting another raise if he doesn’t have to remind every other team about park effects as the primary part of his pitch. The Giants also were atrocious last year, and even with Stanton, would have been a fringe Wild Card contender, well behind the Dodgers in the NL West pecking order.
Plus, growing up in LA, I’m guessing he didn’t have the fondest feelings about the Giants as a kid. So when the arch rival of the team you grew up rooting for wants to trade for you, coming off a season where they posted the second-worst record in baseball, it’s probably not that appealing of an offer. And since Stanton has every right to dictate where he’s traded, there’s no real reason for him to settle for an option he doesn’t prefer, since he doesn’t have to.
For the Marlins, this is nothing short of a disaster. The teams that Stanton has reportedly indicated he will accept a trade to — the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Cubs — can all win without him, and all of them are probably eying Bryce Harper as a potential free agent target next winter. To take themselves out of the Harper bidding at this point, they’re going to have to get Stanton at a significant discount. There’s no sense of urgency from any of those clubs.
At this point, the Marlins may very well be best served just waiting until next year, then marketing Stanton as the cheaper alternative to the teams that don’t get Harper. Trying to force a trade now, when they have almost no leverage, is how a franchise makes a disastrous decision. If the Dodgers want to get into a bidding war, the Marlins should obviously consider it, but they’re now in dangerous territory, and could end up making a colossal mistake if they refuse to see any other options besides trading Stanton this winter.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Guess the fire sale now extends to guys like Yelich and Ozuna. The Marlins could surpass the pre-Ohtani Angels for the biggest “star and scrubs” team ever 😉
I agree, Marlins already told Stanton what would happen if he did not agree to a trade that was palatable to the Marlins ownership, and for them to back down now would be a horrible precedence for future negotiations with any other player, and a sign of horrible management. And, who knows, maybe they are bad managers.
Stanton and his agent is not being realistic, though. If those teams he chose had any interest in him before, under the Marlins requirement that they take on most of his contract, they would have been among the finalists with Cards and Giants. Stanton thinks the Marlins have no options but to trade him, but he’s wrong and he was even told what would happen if he refuses: fire sale of the rest of the team.
Assuming the Marlins do what they said they would do, that means they go to plan B, which they should have had in mind when they originally came to Stanton and told him that they are trading him or they are trading others, but however it happens, the payroll is going down $50M or so.
They dumped $13M of that with Gordon, and their only other high priced payrolls that are actually tradeable are Yellich and Ozuna, who I don’t blame the Marlins for wanting to keep over Stanton, but to get close to $50M, both will have to go, in which case, may as well sell off the whole team, in terms of who is valuable, and go with AAA players filling in everywhere.
Stanton will be unhappy (presumably, playing for a dump fire of a team; or maybe he’s happy counting his way to the bank), but he’s probably spending 2018 just counting how many homers he can hit. I guess he and his agents are willing to kill off 2018 in hopes the Dodgers would be willing to take on his contract after the 2018 season, rather than have him spend even one season in SF or St. Louis.
It is his right, and I get it, it is much like how a number of Giants players didn’t want to be Dodgers, like Vogelsong or Goodwin, so we’ll see how this works out for him. Maybe read things right by calling their bluff and they fold, that is very possible. But if they hold to what they said, they’ll probably be earning the first pick of 2019 draft.
Giants or Cardinals fan eh?
Probably a safe bet after seeing his name.
The Marlins did not give Stanton an ultimatum, and they never mentioned trading Ozuna or Yelich, nor a ‘fire sale.’ Apart from trading Gordon, they’ll just dump some bad contracts, though they’ll have to get creative.
Stanton’s agent Joel Wolfe is just leaking nonsense to try to get his client to his preferred destination- can’t take these tabloid press reports at face value.
Zeigler has $9/1 remaining on his contract, and projects for 3.95 ERA and 0.4 WAR- not impossible to eat half his contract and move him, or pair him with a guy like Dietrich in a trade. He limits HRs very well and suffered a .346 BABIP last season.
Prado projects for 1.5 WAR, has recovered from injury and has $26/2 left on his deal. Like Zeigler he is not unmovable if either some money is eaten, another player is added, or both depending on the terms.
The Marlins can cut $15m off of payroll by just moving those two, and then they are fairly near their target. Volquez is insured, so it’s not certain how they view the $8m or so from his insurance. That would leave somewhere between $0-15m still to cut in order to get under $90, depending on the deals and the insurance money, though there are no taxes to worry about if they miss their target.
Chen is projected for 1.1 WAR and 2.1 per 200 IP, though health obviously an issue and the bad contract at $42/3 remaining. If the Marlins ate half that contract, he doesn’t turn 33 until July and something around $21/3 might be movable. They at least have a chance to work something to save $7 or so there. Volquez and Tazawa are pretty impossible to move admittedly, but I’d be calling LAA right now and offering to eat $5.5 of the remaining 7 owed to Tazawa- he’s 31 and had 4 strong seasons in Boston prior to his last 2 years.
If absolutely desperate, Miami can find a prospect that they value around $5-10m and pair him with some dead money. Braxton Garrett was valued by fangraphs prospect value estimator at $22m this past March. Guys like 3B Brian Anderson, 3B James Nelson, SP Dillon Peters, or OF Brian Miller may have that $7-15m value that could be used to move a Chen or Tazawa.
Miami isn’t screwed, they are fairly likely to get 1-3 more great years of Stanton at a good price and then see him opt out – even if his FA market value dips a bit below his current AAV. They certainly don’t have to trade Yelich or Ozuna (despite more agent noise) for poor returns.
“Stanton and his agent is not being realistic, though. If those teams he chose had any interest in him before, under the Marlins requirement that they take on most of his contract, they would have been among the finalists with Cards and Giants.”
Maybe he just prefers Miami to St. Louis or San Francisco? Remember, it is not Stanton’s prerogative to help the Marlins solve their financial issues.
I know it’s been framed as mutually beneficial for Stanton and the Marlins to figure out a trade, but Stanton apparently feels that would only be true if LAD or NYY was his trade destination. And he’s well within his right to feel that way – he has the full no-trade clause, so he makes the rules.
recommend English class for you….
I believe you meant so say
“I would recommend you take an English class”
Perhaps you can get a two for one deal.