Yankees Reportedly Thinking About ’27 Yankees 2.0
Well, this is something.
#Yankees in play for Stanton, sources tell The Athletic.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2017
Sources: Yankees making progress on a trade for Giancarlo Stanton. One source cautioned nothing done. Another was confident it’s moving toward that. Either way, momentum for Stanton to Yankees is significant.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2017
#Yankees are indeed making a move to try to land Stanton. Deal coming into focus
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2017
After Stanton vetoed the Giants and Cardinals, and reportedly listed just four teams he’d accept trades to, the Yankees are turning into opportunists. Pretty clearly, they weren’t interested at the price SF/STL were willing to pay, but with those teams out of the running, it’s pretty easy to imagine Brian Cashman calling his former shortstop with an offer that is totally just helping out a former friend and not at all taking advantage of an executive who might be in over his head.
The Yankees already have an overcrowded outfield, with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge as the penciled in starters, Jacoby Ellsbury a pretty decent (if overpaid) fourth OF, and Clint Frazier hanging around in case anyone gets hurt. While Ellsbury could be included in the deal as a salary offset, the Marlins were reportedly looking to avoid taking on money in the pre opt-out years, hoping that any financial commitment remaining on their books would be wiped out if Stanton did indeed exercise his option after the 2020 season.
And even if the team added Stanton, Ellsbury still has his usefulness as insurance for Hicks in center, so perhaps Brett Gardner and his easily movable $11M 2018 salary (with a cheap $12.5 million 2019 option) is more likely to be going back to Miami, since the Marlins wouldn’t have a hard time then flipping Gardner elsewhere in a separate move.
If the Yankees acquired Stanton, Frazier would also become somewhat redundant, so perhaps the Yankees would send back a pair of outfielders, consolidating their depth into a better starting left fielder. Of course, the primary downside of this plan would be that — barring a decision to totally punt CF defense — acquiring Stanton makes signing Bryce Harper less likely next year, and many have long speculated that Harper is going to end up in pinstripes. But if the Marlins are legitimately desperate and the Yankees can get Stanton for something in the low $200M range without parting with a ton of young talent, they’d very likely be better off making a deal now rather than trying to win the bidding for Harper next year.
It’s been a nutty 24 hours. It doesn’t sound like things are slowing down any time soon.
Update.
Hear Stanton to Yankees is close if not done.
— Henry Schulman BLUE CHECK MARK (@hankschulman) December 9, 2017
Best of luck, AL East lefties.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
This is a vintage Steinbrenner move. The boss would be proud. Ohtani snubs us? F it, let’s trade for the national league MVP. I love it.
Please don’t allow this to happen
Noah, have faith it’s a good deal for the Yanks. 😉
If the Marlins don’t want to take back any money pre-opt-out, what about:
Yankees gets Stanton + some salary relief post-opt-out
Tigers/White Sox/Rebuilding team gets bad Yankee contracts, good Yankee prospects
Marlins get slightly worse prospects from Rebuilding Team
Marlins get full salary relief pre-opt-out and some young talent. Yankees get Stanton and get below the CBT in 2018. Rebuilding team gets an overpriced vet to satisfy the MLBPA and adds to their farm.
that’s the ideal scenario for all involved, but players like ellsbury have NTC
Ellsbury has a full no trade clause and is big into investing/real estate
Could he be interested in some Miami beachfront property?
Fortunately for Boston, the RH reliever market is well stocked. Though that might be the definition of slim comfort if Stanton to NY happens…..
Ridiculous. You would have to have a die-hard Yankee in Miami in order to get them to just gift Stanton to the Bronx. Never happen. Next !!!
The Yankees do have a crowded outfield, but they’ve got a void at DH.
Here are the career defensive numbers for the Yankees outfielders (sorted by Outs Above Average, which is just for 2017 and only measures range, but Statcast is fun).
Judge 6.9 UZR/150, 9 DRS/150, 6 OAA
Gardner 16.3 UZR/150, 19.8 DRS/150, 3 OAA
Hicks 0.9 UZR/150, 7.1 DRS/150, 1 OAA
Frazier -20.4 UZR/150, -20.4 DRS/150, 1 OAA
Ellsbury 5.7 UZR/150, 3.5 DRS/150, 1 OAA
Stanton 4.3 UZR/150, 6.9 DRS/150, -1 OAA
The scouting report on Frazier has been that he has a CF’s speed but the hands aren’t there yet. Clay Davenport’s numbers also had him 7 runs below average in the minors. Ellsbury looks like the odd man out (despite the narrative, he’s been very nearly worth the $84M he’s gotten so far, though the next $68M don’t look pretty). Hicks in center leaves the Yanks with 4 above average corner outfielders, two of whom (Gardner and Frazier) could play center in a pinch.
I’d DH Stanton opening day, as he doesn’t have Judge or Gardner’s range. It’d be a weird way to put together a team, which is why they were looking to acquire Schwarber and not Stanton, but if the Marlins are giving Stanton away… Also, the Yankees do like giving Judge and Sanchez time at DH, so perhaps a permanent DH wouldn’t be the best move. Carlos Santana or J.D. Martinez would fit in nicely, playing the field occasionally, but with the downside of not *being the reigning MVP*.
The question isn’t really the money; moving from Ellsbury to Stanton is a $3.2M increase in AAV even without any money changing hands, way cheaper than a DH on the open market. The Yankees could still comfortably put $30 million into a starter (Alex Cobb? CC?) and a power bat off the bench (Yonder Alonso? Matt Adams?) and buy at the deadline, or alternatively get into the Darvish sweepstakes.
The question is what you have to give up. The Marlins say they don’t want to pay down any money before the opt out, but I suspect they’d be content with a Verlander-style deal, where they pay down the salary and get prospects back, which makes trading a franchise player more palatable. The issue, as we saw in the Verlander deal, is that trading for a big name, even when you have all the leverage, can cause teams to pay more than the typical deadline going rates.
I bet Stanton with the Marlins desperate and $30M paid down (maybe half before the opt out) would get back a back end top 100 guy, a flyer, and a couple guys in between (Miguel Andujar and hard throwing righties Juan de Paula, Luis Medina and Johnathan Loaisiga?). Then the Yankees could put that $30M towards Ellsbury, who’s probably still worth $8M, meaning they’d need $30M in prospects. That’s one guy around 50 or two at the edges of top 100 lists (Justus Sheffield or Albert Abreu and Freicer Perez (who’s frame keeps scouts interested, but he’s never found the Ks to go with it)). The system could spare it, but that’s still a big expenditure of prospects.
Steamer has Stanton projected for the 10th highest WAR in the league next year, and if he’s being given away, the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros and Cubs would accept his services. He’s not though; he comes with a hefty contract and an expectation of some prospects in return. If he’s really available below his value, the Yankees could put him and his project 150 wRC+ to use, but with stars, their going rate tend to be quite different.
Sorry to focus on just one sentence of your post, but what on earth does it mean that Clint Frazier’s hands aren’t there yet for CF? You need hands in the infield for bad hops and such, but I’ve yet to see a flyball affected by turbulence enough that an OF needed soft hands to catch it. Does he not wear a glove or something?
Good for the yankees…They’re going to need some resources after the 2017 career years from multiple players regress back to normal. You know if you look at Aaron Judges last 3 years he only averages 20 MLB hrs per year. (Fun with sample sizes) Plus Aaron F’ing Boone is about 5 wins worst than Giardi.
Footnote – this post was not written by a bitter Red Sox fan who had his Ohtani not going to they yankees celebration interrupted by this news.
Well, I’m not dancing about this (as a card carrying Yankee hater) and I think replacing Giradi with a guy who has never coached in his life is insanity, but no mananger of any team in any year has ever been worth 5 wins. Managers worth a tenth of that would be EXTREMELY valuable
Having said that, I do think there’s a chance Judge hits 30 instead of 50, Stanton gets hurt, Bird is .250 with 15 instead of .250 with 30, Sanchez can’t stay behind the plate defensively (which would hurt LOTS of his value), Didi (whose peripherals do not match his production) shows his true self, there are out spots at 2b and 3b in the lineup all year, and Sonny Gray is…well…Sonny Gray. That would leave them with two good starters and a good bullpen and a meh kind of year offensively. So I don’t totally disagree some those guys could regress.
Hearing the deal would include Castro and some “good but not great” prospects. Would NYY play Ronald Torreyes at 2B before Gleyber Torres came up?
They would. He did fine at SS in April this year. They also have Tyler Wade.
That’s funny, I don’t remember the yankees announcing that they had acquired a new farm team?
Great offseason to be a Dodger fan. Lose the world series, lose out on the best foreign player, and then lose out on the reigning NL MVP. Yay!
If it makes you feel better, you were never going to get Ohtani and not getting Stanton might end up being a blessing
Yes.
For me and other Cardinals fans, it’s disappointing that the team has missed the playoffs for the last two years, but missing out on signing either Heyward or Price after the 2015 season now looks like dodging two bullets.
Stanton’s a great player, and it’s easy to see the optimistic outcome for the Yankees. He’s great for three years, he then opts out, and the Yankees are disciplined enough to let some other team pay a huge amount for his decline years.
OTOH, it’s also easy to see the downside: the injury problems continue and worsen for a 6′ 6″, 245 pound player with a history of knee, hamstring, and groin injuries, decline (exacerbated by injuries) sets in and saps his power somewhat over the next three years, he doesn’t opt out, and in about 5 years this contract looks like an albatross with another 5 years still to go at about $30 million per year.
You poor poor Dodger fans