Yankees Strike Deal for Giancarlo Stanton
After Giancarlo Stanton rejected deals to the Cardinals and Giants, the Yankees sensed opportunity and have reportedly reached an agreement to acquire the NL MVP. While the Shohei Ohtani decision Friday was the most anticipated news item of the offseason, this is a stunning and fascinating development.
sources: yankees and marlins have a deal for giancarlo stanton
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2017
Source: Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement is in place between #Yankees and #Marlins, but deal is still pending Stanton’s consent and Yankees approval of physical. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2017
The stove is piping hot.
Already in possession of the only player to rival and exceed Stanton’s power and frame in Aaron Judge, the Yankees now have each of the game’s Statcast Gods — if Stanton approves the deal. Complete details are not known regarding the return for the Marlins.
Stanton wanted to play for a winner and he would join a Yankees team that advanced to the ALCS last year and is loaded with young talent and set up to enjoy a long window of contention.
Judge and Stanton each filled highlight shows with mammoth home runs last season as each eclipsed 50 home runs. They finished 1-2 in average exit velocity on line drives and flyballs
While Ohtani has a chance to be a historic figure as a two-way player, the only MLB team to ever have two 50-plus home run hitters in the same lineup in the same season was the 1961 Yankees with Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris.
We might have just witnessed transactions with historic implications on back-to-back days. The Yankees lineup will be absurd. Let’s not forget about Gary Sanchez and Gregory Bird.
The ramifications of the deal are fascinating.
The Yankees (89 wins) trailed the Red Sox (91), Astros (97) and Indians (93) in the AL in projected wins before the deal. Stanton could swing the AL East race in favor of the Yankees.
I assume Stanton and Judge would slot in corner outfield spots and occasionally fill the DH role for a respite. Does Stanton eliminate the Yankees as Bryce Harper favorites or even contenders next offseason, or would the Yankees still be willing to court Harper and place him in center field?
sounds like yanks are planning on keeping gardner. if they get stanton, they'd likely rotate those two plus judge in the 2 corner OF spots plus dh.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2017
If the deal goes through, it’s going to be interesting to see how Stanton’s power fits as Yankee Stadium II and its absurdly close right-field wall. Mike Petriello examined the Statcast data and found there might be as large of a change as we might expect.
If Stanton had called Yankee Stadium home in 2017, the home run difference would have been… maybe nothing at all!
RF is shorter, but he hits everything so far anyway that he had nothing in the "maybe" zone there. pic.twitter.com/umT8AmlYQf
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 9, 2017
Stanton’s line drives and flyballs since 2015 overlayed with Yankee Stadium:
Still, I’d be interested to see if Yankee Stadium II helps Stanton build upon and consolidate the skill gains he made last season, through a closed stance, in reducing his strikeout rate by six percentage points en route to a career-low (23.6%) mark, while still smashing an-MLB best 59 home runs. While Stanton didn’t dramatically change his spray chart and batted-ball profile, he made better contact and 34.3% of his fly balls went for home runs.
We don’t know what the Marlins received yet but the franchise looks to be on the verge of entering a deep down-period and will be without its top drawing card if Stanton accepts.
Jeff polled the crowd in his recent front-office rankings and the Marlins were graded to be by far the worst. It’s fair to wonder what exactly CEO Derek Jeter is doing and why an ownership group that paid $1.2 billion to buy the Marlins in the summer cannot afford its best player, and has been so desperate to move its best player.
A new era begins. pic.twitter.com/WkqL2oyn2O
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) October 3, 2017
If the trade was largely a cash dump as anticipated, then the Marlins are probably not returning cornerstone players in a rebuilding effort.
This is akin to being house poor, to buying a the-top-of-your budget home and not being able to furnish it. The Marlins have already moved Dee Gordon, the NL MVP is perhaps gone, and maybe Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna will follow. Marlins Park is going often be an empty house in 2018. Yankee Stadium II is going to be filled and the ball is going to be flying.
It’s going to be interesting to see if Stanton opts out, and how he ages. But those are longer-term concerns. In the shorter-term, we’re going to see Judge and Stanton together against Baltimore pitching. Let’s hold off on de-juicing the ball another year, MLB.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Wow. I thought the National League was catching up a bit to the American league in talent but the AL just gained about 10-15 WAR on the NL in 2 days.
For sure! The NL always seems like a pretty weak league to me but wow. What if Harper leaves? Winning the NL the last few years hasn’t really been much of an accomplishment- after next year the winner might just deserve a “congrats bud”.
The last 18 WS have gone 9 NL and 9 AL.
But the last 14 interleague season totals have gone to the AL … which seems like a slightly more meaningful sample.
This is where sabermetric types lose sight of the big picture (& I include myself as a sabermetric person). There is no question the AL it’s better, but at the end of the season, that has meant absolutely nothing. Winning the NL it’s much more significant than a “pat on the back”. Half the time that makes you the Champion.
I’ve never bothered to do the math, but it seems like the truer test would be interleague record in NL parks. NL teams don’t have DHs on the roster and are at a big disadvantage in AL parks.
You might say AL teams are also at a disadvantage in NL parks when they have to sit a DH who can’t play the field, but that doesn’t feel comparable to me.
I’m sorry if you’re a fan of an NL team. No offense meant. It’s just a given that way crappier players play way more in the NL. Scrapjunk bench players and scrapjunk relievers get used way more. I just think AAA players get way more playing time in the NL. Think about the Reds starters and then their bullpen. It’s not major league but those guys pitch a bunch and other teams pad their stats.
The cerebral nature of NL ball is SO much more satisfying! A byproduct of having no DH is forcing both teams to use their entire team, not just 9 hitters and 2-3 pitchers. It’s called strategy, and it’s far more enjoyable-as well as being historically consistent. So keep your superior, condescending attitude and understand that NL fans like baseball the way it was always meant to be.
What did the White Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Mariners and Twins starters and bullpen do to you? Don’t they deserve your love too?
1) You’re making an arbitrary guess on the relative impact of NL teams playing with a DH vs. AL teams playing without one. The simple fact is that each league is better equipped than the other to play by its own rules.
An overall comparison of DH and pitcher-hitting stats for 2004-17, by league:
— DH OPS: AL .770, NL .711 –> AL +.059
— Pitcher OPS: NL .347, AL .283 –> NL +.063
The raw difference is a wash. Now, DHs do get about 75% more PAs than do pitchers in interleague games, or 1.8 more PAs per game — but it’s an absurd stretch to hang the AL’s massive interleague edge on a modest edge in one batting position for 1.8 PAs per game.
2) Even if your point was true, the AL’s interleague road W% since 2004 is .496, which is +.035 above the same-league road W% of .461 in that span — or +5.7 wins per 162 games.
The AL is just better.
I don’t doubt the AL is stronger than the NL, but I’m a Mets fan myself and I believe the lack of a DH in the NL creates a more strategic environment. The decisions of pinch hitting, utilizing a greater part of the team, I believe require more decision making which I happen to prefer. Also, I happen to despise the Stanton trade due to my extreme bias haha.
Happy Saturday Travis, Jeter will always be a Yankee at heart.
Talent in my NL only is getting thinned out! Seems inevitable Dombrowski ponies up for JD Martinez now too.
And a bunch of right handers for the pitching staff.
This is a great move by Cashman. Yes, between the opt-out and length of his contract there are scenarios where it doesn’t end well. But between now and the opt-out, they get the age 28, 29 and 30 seasons of a hall of fame level talent. The Yankees window is right now. If they waited until next year to get Harper, that’s 1 less year of the primes of Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Chapman, and Sonny Gray.
They can worry about every season after 2020 when that comes. They should be competing for a WS every year until then with the roster they have.
Now they can just get Machado instead of Harper.
That’s funny, I don’t remember the yankees announcing that they had acquired a new farm team?
I sure hope the Yankees send Jeter a signed ball.
I think he’s entitled to a really nice gift basket.
Not only do the Yankees get Stanton, they don’t give up any major prospects and get to dump Castro’s contract.
It’s not exactly a heist since the contract is close to market value, but it is close.
The fact the Cubs and (especially) the Dodgers were unwilling to beat that is surprising. A signed ball would be the least Cashman can do.
The Yankees got about $16 million in 2018 salary relief for luxury tax purposes from the trade.
If the Dodgers were take on Stanton’s $25 million 2018 luxury tax hit they would have required about $34 million in 2018 salary relief since they are already $8.5 million over the $197 million threshold.
So that’s twice as much 2018 salary relief, plus the players the Dodgers would have wanted to trade to make that happen (McCarthy, Gonzalez, Kazmir) are more expensive, not as good and not as tradable as Castro.
The Cubs are $57 million under the threshold so idk there.
They are currently $57 million under the tax for for 2018, but they’ll also almost certainly eat up a big chunk of that between adding one more starting pitcher and adding multiple late-inning relievers. If they do something like sign Darvish or Arrieta, sign Wade Davis, and sign someone from the Morrow / Addison Reed level of set-up guys, that would be on the order of $50 million AAV on multi-year contracts. Or maybe they spend less money on some of those players but bring back Jon Jay, or sign someone similar to him.
For luxury tax and payroll, the Cubs may also be looking at the impact on 2019 and 2020 as much as 2018. They’ll have natural internal increases in payroll over the next few years because of arbitration, or pre-FA extensions with guys who are otherwise arb or minimum salary. Bryant, Hendricks, and Russell all have their first arb years in 2018, so they’ll keep going up each year as they progress through arbitration. Baez and Schwarber are arb-eligible in 2019. The only significant contract that goes away is Zobrist’s $14 million AAV after 2019.
Even with the Cubs’ young position players making less than market value, the money adds up if a team is paying free agent prices for 60% of its starting rotation, plus free agent prices for some late-inning relievers, plus Heyward’s $23 millon AAV.
While there seemed to be a consensus that his remaining contract (10/$295 with his opt out after Year 3) was about what Stanton would get as a free agent, it’s possible that the Dodgers simply valued him at quite a bit less than that contract. And, of course, the estimation of what a player would get as a free agent is what the high bidder would pay, not a median valuation with which every front office agrees.
The Dodgers under Friedman have so far been pretty disciplined on making big commitments to individual players in free agency. For example, they let Greinke leave and haven’t signed any $100 million+ contracts since the Friedman regime arrived after the 2014 season.
There are so many assumptions to make on valuing Stanton’s contract, between the opt out, the amount of money and years that are after the opt out, and Stanton’s injury history that I could see teams coming up with really wide range of valuations. It’s very possible that the Dodgers simply valued Stanton, with the opt out in his contract, as worth something 10 / $225 and then stayed disciplined on budging much beyond that valuation.
* as worth something like 10 / $225
As the fan of a small market team, this is really depressing. Baseball needs a hard(er) salary cap. It simply isn’t fair to have to compete against teams with double or triple the financial resources. It’s one thing the NFL does well.
I get the sentiment, but I’m definitely not in favour of artificially limiting salaries so that owners just get to keep all the money. Travis has been arguing for a salary floor and that makes a lot of sense to me.
A salary floor is a good idea, too, but that doesn’t really obviate the need for a cap. The problem is that the teams in the league are not really playing on even playing fields, so to speak. If the NFL can do it (a league that barely does anything well nowadays) there is no reason MLB can’t.
The point is that salary caps just benefit owners. Players make less money, wages are kept artificially low, and owners make a killing. If the Twins can’t afford to keep up, they can sell the team to someone who can. I hate that the only place there is real socialism in America is in professional sports when billionaire owners want to not pay free market costs.
There are other issues with caps as well such as creating mediocrity, making trading difficult to impossible, etc…
Smaller markets can’t keep up, period. No owner is going to lose money for long just to keep up with the Yankees and Dodgers. The salary caps have to be reasonable based on average incoming revenue, like in the other major sports leagues. It’s not a matter of socialism, but of ensuring an even playing field for a league.
“No owner is going to lose money”‘
Look in the mirror, that’s where you will find both the problem and the solution.
Players currently get a higher percentage of revenue in every league with a collectively bargained salary cap than they do in MLB.
Caps may only benefit owners but the same may be more true of the current system.
You have to add the cost of operating a minor league system to the players salaries – MLB does not have a college system feeding fully developed players to it’s big league teams like the NFL and NBA enjoy
@bdhumbert – correct, and the MLBPA apparently agrees after seeing the numbers including benefits and minor league systems that the percent going to players is both higher and more stable than commonly reported. http://www.chroniclet.com/national-news/2016/03/21/AP-study-players-share-of-Major-League-Baseball-revenues-remain-stable-over-past-decade.html
It’s also sometimes misleading to look at MLB percentages based on all team revenue and compare them to the headline percentages from the NFL or NBA CBA’s. IIRC, those calculations are pretty complicated in that they exclude some revenue (or weight it differently) and also have some deductions from revenue for things like stadium debt payments.
There is absolutely no truth to this whatsoever and it annoys me that you’re getting upvoted while TwinPeaks is being downvoted. Collective bargaining agreements in the NBA and NFL mandate that a certain percentage of revenue is given to the players (50% and 47% respectively), so those salary caps do not suppress wages but they do help to level the playing field between different teams. In the past, MLB payrolls didn’t correlate that strongly with winning and therefore it wasn’t as much of a concern, but lately that correlation has been growing stronger.
Glevin- “This country has socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for the poor” MLK
The NFL can do it because most of their revenue comes from showing all of their games on national TV. Having each team play 16 games a season instead of 162 makes the league a TV rating juggernaut (being the easiest sport to gamble on as well as the most popular fantasy sport to play for the casual fan doesn’t hurt either for ratings).
Baseball is more dependent on attendance and local television for revenue which is why a salary cap will never happen because large market teams (Dodgers, Yankees) have these factors priced into their team’s market valuations.
That’s even more reason to have a salary cap rather than being a reason against one. Sports like the NFL with revenue concentrated in national TV deals will presumably have less differentiation in revenue between teams, whereas there are massive differences in baseball. That’s why MLB already has revenue sharing, but the gap between the haves and the have nots appears to be getting wider again. Baseball having many more years of initial team control helps small market teams stay in it, but if those years are ever reduced (which I would like), then some mechanisms would need to be added to help those smaller markets remain competitive.
Two of the last three world champions are small market Kansas City and low-TV-revenue Houston. Until it’s shown that even with classic rebuilding techniques a low-revenue team can’t compete, I don’t see a need for a change, and I say that as an A’s fan.
Twin, Football is a national sport, baseball is a regional sport. Think about the implications of that… Okay, revenue for football comes from national television contracts, baseball revenue from ticket sales and regional baseball packages. So a fan in a small market pays less for the experience than a large market fan. Baseball has revenue sharing and have small market teams invested the windfall?
No small market owner wants a salary floor – and knows that there is no way a cap gets implemented without a floor AND a minimum % to players guarantee.
As a Buffalo Bills fan I have issues with the idea that salary caps create level playing fields.
LOL – there is no way to create a GM/ownership competency floor. If only…
You could always become a Cleveland Browns fan. You’ll be their 3rd!
I just don’t like the idea that billionaire owners think they should be guaranteed profits. Owning a team is a business and there is risk involved. The Cardinals are a small market and have done well over the last 10 years. The Rays were competitive even though they were extremely cheap. Well run teams can win and profit.
Would argue that the Cardinals are NOT small market – St Louis is a great baseball town with no NFL team. They are certain of an average of 40,000+ in attendance [second in baseball last FIVE years] and a huge local media contribution. They have a vast market – second largest number of radio affiliates and Cardinals broadcast every game on local TV and are often the highest rated show in their time slot
I agree that the Cardinals punch above their weight revenue-wise due to the combination of very good support in St. Louis and a fanbase over a broad geographic area that’s in part due to a history of franchise success and in part due to the historical accident of being the westernmost major league team until the 1950’s.
To that point, here’s how Fox Sports Midwest describes the territory where it tries to acquire cable carriage of the Cardinals: “most of Missouri, central and southern Illinois, most of Iowa, southwest Indiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and parts of Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.” http://mlb.mlb.com/stl/schedule/fsn-faq/
STL isnt small market unless you are so naive to think that their market is only the city. Look at their TV broadcast area. They touch something like 8 different states and include other sizeable metros like Memphis.
This TV/radio market is their real market. They pull from that area. Memphis, TN and other mid metros like springfield (MO and IL) and Columbia, MO are a short drive to STL. They draw huge attendance because they broadcast to a large population with very little competition.
Cleveland Browns fans would disagree with you on this point.
Not meant as a snarky or leading question, but–is there any chance this could be some sort of collusion, since Jeter?
It’d be hard to prove, and I highly doubt that it’s the case. They’ve already had offers agreed upon with other teams that were declined.
That said, the meme potential is off the charts.
I’m having flashbacks to Kevin McHale trading Kevin Garnett to the Celtics for, like, two basketballs signed by Red Auerbach.
The Timberwolves actually got quite a bit back in that trade:
Al Jefferson, who was 22 years old and had just averaged 16 points and 11 Rebounds.
Theo Ratliff, whose expiring contract would take free up about $11 million for the T-wolves. Since the salary cap was $55 million, that was a substantial asset.
Ryan Gomes, who at 24 had just averaged 12 points and almost 6 rebounds, and looked like a good shooter.
Sebastian Telfair, who hadn’t done much (and never would), but looked like a lottery ticket at least.
Gerald Green, who looked like a cheap, young, decent backup.
Boston’s 2009 first round pick (top 3 protected).
The Wolves 2009 first round pick that had gone in a previous trade.
Garnett was 31 and due about $40 million over the next two years. He had 5-6 more effective years in him before falling apart, though no one knew that at the time. There was no reason to think he would have resigned with Minnesota after those two years, so they needed to get something for him.
In retrospect, the deal looks way worse because the Timberwolves took Jonny Flynn and Wayne Ellington with those two draft picks. Neither guy every amounted to anything, and Flynn was particularly egregious since they drafted both him and Ricky Rubio in the same draft.
That’s a result of poor drafting, though, not it being a lopsided trade.
I’m much more inclined to think it’s a combination of Stanton exercising his no-trade when he wanted + Cashman schooling a new owner who has little to no idea what he’s doing.
Just what exactly would Jeter have to gain here? He’s already bound for the HOF, loved by most of baseball, and has all the money he’ll ever need. All that could happen is that he gets caught and banned from baseball. No way he’s taking that risk.
“Just what exactly would Jeter have to gain here?”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Tens of millions in profit every year.
More like he’s a Yankee for life and he just went from “God at short” to “God in the front office”.
If you wanted to be the best Yankee GM ever, you would do it by working for another team. It’s quite simple really.
And there’s no “collusion” at all. It’s all him, and it’s all allowed.
Why would the Yankees pay Jeter tens of millions a year to make this trade? That costs way more than the value they got in the trade (assuming they got any value, period). And Jeter has more than tens of millions already.
“Trump won’t use the White House for personal profit, he’s already rich. Why would he risk it ?”
The collusion is real, but it begins in the office of Manfred. If the other guy, the Cuban Miami billionaire, was sold the team then this never happens.
Very true. Practically everything that MLB has given its blessing to involving Jeff Loria stinks to high heaven. If it weren’t for baseball’s anti-trust exemption it would be felony fraud.
No, Jimmie, there’s very little evidence for that, and I’m disappointed that this has so many upvotes.
People apparently don’t look at the numbers showing that the Marlins’ revenue is down in the same territory as the Rays and A’s, who are obviously teams that don’t take on 10 year / $295 million contract commitments.
We were just reading rumors of SF sending Panik and some b-grade prospects, and that was fine. This is basically the same exact package.
Yeah.
People don’t realize there isn’t much of a gap between the Yankees’ 9th prospect and the Giants’ 2nd.
Nightengale reported that SF’s package was Tyler Beede, Aramis Garcia and $230MM of the $295MM owed to Stanton.
Frankly, Jeter and the Marlins did better with NYY’s package – Castro, Guzman, Devers and NY taking $265MM of the contract.
I was *blown away* to read the Giants’ offer. They were gonna trade Stanton for even less than what they got from the Yankees!
And it further amazes me that the Dodgers (and to a lesser extent, the Cubs) couldn’t or wouldn’t jump in on that.
Someone in the Marlins front office–the owner, the GM, or someone in between–really got schooled hard. They didn’t have a lot of leverage, but yikes.
Well, the more you are amazed that teams like the Dodgers and Cubs didn’t jump in, the more evidence there is to think that the Marlins didn’t get schooled.
There was plenty of analysis done supporting the view that Stanton’s remaining contract had little or no surplus value at all.
Except there was no reason to trade Stanton today (or yesterday, or whatever it was)…
Ah hell, who am I kidding. You’re right. They wanted to dump the contract. They did a good job of that. I just don’t like it. They didn’t get “schooled” as much as they had priorities I didn’t like.
Again though, I think the Yankees did awfully well to get a top flight player, and the Dodgers should have tried harder. A lot harder. It is awfully hard to find guys who can put up 6 WAR in a single roster spot. Yeah, sure, there are some major downsides to that contract (and there wasn’t a ton of surplus value there, you’re right), but if the point is to wait to give Bryce Harper a 400 million dollar contract next offseason then I don’t like that either. I like the trade for Stanton way more than that.
“It is awfully hard to find guys who can put up 6 WAR in a single roster spot.”
It is tough – though the Dodgers did find a couple 5+ WAR seasons out of nowhere with Turner – but let’s also be realistic with Stanton. He’s played 7 major league seasons where he was on the Opening Day roster. He has just as many sub-3 WAR seasons (two) as he does 6+ WAR seasons.
I fully agree, and Nightengale also reported the Cardinals’ offer as Alcantara, Flaherty, and “nearly $250 million” of the contract.
Going by what Fangraphs uses for prospect value, I think that’s maybe $280 to $295 million in total cash and prospect value, vs. about $275 to $280 million from the Yankees. So there’s a discount there, but it’s not massive on a percentage basis.
And, if you believe Nightengale’s reporting from Friday that the Yankees a few weeks ago had wanted the Marlins to take back Ellsbury’s contract in exchange for Stanton and his contract, then the Yankees apparently moved more on their offer than the Marlins lost vs. the Cardinals’ offer (unless that Ellsbury offer had much better Yankees’ prospects attached).
Yanks could push up near 300 HR as team….fuck…I’m a Jays fan 🙁
Just waitin for Bo and Vlad at this point. I honestly think we should offload Donaldson, painful as it is. I find it difficult to see us competing in the next 2 yearsish. If we get something of value for him though, we’ll have an exceptional core to play with our young pitchers.
@DayNife
The crazy thing is, from a purely baseball standpoint, Donaldson to the Yanks makes perfect sense sporting wise. They have a need at 3B, while the Jays would likely need to re-load and they’ll need space at 3B for Vlad when he comes (though that does create a hole next year and assumes Vlad and Bo actually continue to smash their way to the majors). The Yanks would get immediate help there and it would be cheaper than getting Machado.
Agreed on Donaldson. More broadly, it seems like the Ohtani and Stanton deals should encourage the Jays, Orioles, Rangers, etc. to punt on 2018 and sell Donaldson, Machado, Beltre etc. The AL wildcard simply looks like a 2 horse race (Angels and whichever of BOS and NYY does not win the division), so why waste resources on trying for a playoff spot?
The Twins are right in there, too.
I very much disagree on this point.
Teams that project to be within 4-5 games of the team ahead of them have some decent chance to catch that team due to the variance inherent in projections.
The Angels strike me as a team with particular risk because they still look like a stars and scrubs roster. A lot of their projected production will be concentrated in Trout, Simmons, and Ohtani, with some contribution from Upton, Calhoun, and Richards. They could have a pretty ugly year if several names on this list (particularly Trout, of course) miss really large amounts of the season due to injuries.
The Twin Towers unite!
Still too soon.
Lots of alpha dogs in that clubhouse. Wonder how well he’ll mesh in team chemistry-wise. Plus a new manager who’s never even coached. Will be extremely difficult to reach the now stratospheric expectations that this team will now have.
Who are the alpha dogs? The team got along great last year (or at least it seemed that way compared to previous teams that didn’t know how to have fun). I’ve never heard that Stanton is difficult to get along with.
Stanton and Judge (especially) seem pretty damn chill. I’m no too even sure who you’d consider an “alpha dog” type right now? Maybe Sanchez?
One team strikes a deal to acquire an outstanding player; the deal falls through at the eleventh hour; the Yankees swoop in to acquire a giant star and his giant contract.
This all sounds like ARod 2.0. And would Yankee fans do that deal again? Were ARod’s All-star performances and 2009 playoff performance worth the off field drama, the luxury tax implications, and the negative PED publicity?
I mean that as a legitimate question. And I also don’t mean to suggest that Stanton comes with similar off field baggage. Instead, I think it’s simply fair to note that any trade of this magnitude carries a lot of risk, and to use this new trade as a chance to look back on and evaluate the last comparable transaction.
re-signing arod, specifically the yankees bidding against themselves, was the mistake.
Yeah, his first contract was working out pretty well
Yes. Every single time.
I just wonder if the Nats may be the big winner today with this. Bryce Harper probably doesn’t go to New York now.
(not to mention for the 2018 season at least, Washington gets 19 games with Miami sans Stanton).
Maybe, but there is still a long list of teams willing to pay him $400 plus million. They might be able to keep him easier, but he won’t come any cheaper.
no doubt, but it takes a major team(probably favorite) presumably totally out of the equation. And I question just how long of a list there is to pay him 400 million plus.
Depending on how his 2018 season goes, I don’t know if there are any teams willing to pay Harper $400 million.
I understand that he’s 25 right now and that Steamer projects him to put up about 6 WAR in 2018. I also understand that maybe a team can talk themselves into thinking that at some point he’ll put up another season (or seasons) approaching his 9.5 WAR 2015.
He also, though, has played less than 120 games in 3 of the past 5 seasons. His second-best season after 2015 is 4.8 WAR. Let’s say that in 2018 he puts up a season with a 110 to 120 wRC+, like he did in both 2014 and 2016, and misses a month or so due to an injury. That’s below his median forecast, but I don’t see how that would be shocking given his track record. What’s his market if that happens?
I always wondered if the Yankees were going to be serious players for Harper. I always thought Machado was going to be the guy they went after, and now I definitely do.
Still, it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Nationals will now be bidding against one less financial juggernaut.
I wonder if Cashman isn’t thinking “I’ve dodged the Harper bullet.” The Yankees are hard enough to manage as it is without such a big-ego star.
Helps them a little. Still need to bid against the Cubs and Dodgers.
Jason Heyward waves hello from the Windy city.
No Dodgers either.
Two hours down the turnpike from NY is where both Machado and Harper will be signed.
Current teams are three hours south.
Because Heyward would start over Harper?
Fwiw … 11 teams have had 2 players with a prior 50-HR year. None of those tandems totaled more than 63 HRs, and no individual topped 37.
— Yankees of 1962-66, Mantle & Maris
— Yankees of 2011-12, A-Rod & Andruw
— Orioles of 1999-2000, Belle & Brady Anderson
— 2012 Phillies, Thome & Howard
— 2008 White Sox, Thome & Junior
The only such tandem to both reach 30 HRs was Mantle & Maris in ’62.
This is obviously not meant as prediction, just a point of trivial interest. And of course, none of those tandems were both in their 20s, as Judge & Giancarlo will be (26 and 28); the youngest pair were Maris (27) and Mantle (30) in ’62.
FWIW the teams you mentioned had at least one player way past his prime, which is not the case with either Stanton or Judge… Of course, injuries could always happen.
You should look again at Mantle-Maris from 1962-64. Both missed a lot of ’63 but were excellent when they played. And no reason to *expect* either was way past his prime at that point.
I suspect the ball was much less lively back then compared to the past few years.
I remember how much fun it was,following the Maris,Mantle hr race.
Hope Judge,and Stanton can create the same excitement.
Not to mention when they sign Harper too
I DEMAND A FULL SCALE INVESTIGATION IMMEDIATELY! THE YANKEES BOUGHT THE MARLINS AND ALL THAT TRADES IN PLACE WITH THE GIANTS AND CARDINALS WAS A BIG SMOKESCREEN TO THROW EVERYBODY OFF….COME ON JETER IS A YANKEE LIFER THAT OWNS WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE MARLINS??? LESS THAN 10%…..I WANT TO KNOW WHERE EVERY PENNY OF ALL THESE SO CALLED PERCENTAGE OWNERS IS COMING FROM…..
DIRECT SCENE FUNCTIONALITY DITEN! JENKE RULE MARLINE AND ALL OTHER COMMERCIAL RELATED TO GIANTS AND CARDINALS, SMOKESCREEN IS A GAME … GOOD TO CHECK JANKE LIFER LINKED BY MARLINA ??? Less than 10% … ..I WANT TO KNOW WHAT WE KNOW WHAT FILLS T PERSON FROM … … ..
So this is obviously a bit irrationally written. But this is the same league that stopped the Big Red Machine era Reds from trading with the Oakland A’s for an ace because it wasn’t in ‘the best interest of the game.’
I’ll be honest – to the casual fan, Derek Jeter handing the reigning NL MVP to the Yankees as his first major move of his ownership certainly could be called ‘not in the best interest of the game’ for several reasons.
Downvote this man if you want, but come on, I don’t trust anyone who didn’t have this gut reaction when they heard the news
Me neither, but I trust people who type in all caps and use ellipses as their main punctuation even less.
I personally think Ozuna is a top 20 mlb player (I really think top 10, but like keeping those opinions to myself) and am really curious to see where he ends up next year.
Ozuna’s 2017 was far and away the best season of his career to date, and he was 23rd in position player WAR.
Some of the players above him on that list also had career years, but some of the players below him (Harper, Freeman, Posey, Rizzo, to name just a few) would clearly be ranked as better players due to looking at career track records beyond 2017.
crazy that a comment this innocuous gets downvoted
Ah, maaaaaaaaaaaaaaan…
I hate it when the Yankees acquire players that I like. That’s one less player I get to enjoy happily, without any conflicts at all.
That lineup’s gonna be absurd and all, but the purely emotional fan part of me wants Jeter arrested for collusion and sentenced to life in prison. Imagine going back to spring 2017 and telling Marlins fans that Stanton was gonna hit 59 homers, win MVP, and get traded for Starlin Castro and the Yankees’ 9th-best prospect?
That’s a harsh sentence, but yeah, I think he wanted to send Stanton to the Bronx.
I think he should be forced to hand over the Marlins to a trust run by Fangraphs, Inc.
That’s a great idea! Instead of MLB taking over a team like they did with the Expos, let Fangraphs set up an ownership coalition of Fangraphs members to run the team. Like the people of Green Bay own the Packers. As part of the deal, MLB would own the rights to a reality show based upon the Fangraphs Marlins (like HBO’s Hard Knocks).
Who else is in?
Aye
I would pay a ton of money (and it would need to be a ton of money) for a Fangraphs membership if it meant owning 1/100,000th of the Marlins. I would also expect to control approximately 1/100,000th of the personnel process too, and free food at the park. No need to distribute any money to me, I’ll even buy my own hats and jerseys.
And, if we were all also divvying up the capital calls from this trust to cover any losses, we’d look at the Marlins’ expected revenue versus player expenses for 2018, and decide to cut payroll.
And, as Fangraphs readers, we’d probably also look at the farm system, get a realistic idea of how bad it is, and start trading other players in a full Astros-style rebuild with the target of having a good team by around 2021.
How many games did Stanton miss in ’15 and ’16?
Don’t get me wrong, I could totally see that contract becoming an albatross in a hurry after Stanton turns 30. That said, if he’s anywhere near as good as he was in 2017 for the next 3-4 years he’ll be worth that contract; there was widespread agreement that the remaining years on his deal was about what he’d get on the open market. Giving that away for Starlin Castro and a couple of decent prospects is asking a lot of any fanbase, and this will be the 4th time the Marlins have torn it all down in 20 years.
I feel like a club needs at least one playoff appearance before gutting it can be referred to as “tearing it all down,” haha.
Also – Guzman’s a very solid prospect, and Denbo’s familiar with him.
If the Marlins were drawing 2M+ year maybe – but they were a pretty competitive team last year until late August with a homer thumping MVP – and could not even get to 1M.
I have lived in South Florida for 15 years and went through the “fans will never turn out for an open air stadium when the temp and humidity for most of the season is close to 90. WE MUST HAVE AN ENCLOSED STADIUM.
In a great rip off of local taxpayers [not me, I live in St Lucie County]
They got their wish in 2012. And fans continued to stay home.
The Marlins drew 1.65 million in 2017, so they were well above 1 million.
I agree with your broader point, though, because the Marlins’ average home attendance was 3rd from the bottom of baseball, above only the A’s and Rays, even with Stanton hitting 59 HR’s and a team that finished a few games under .500.
I understand that Loria’s track record of ownership really screwed up the market, but the problem is that’s the state of the market now and for at least the next few years, making the Marlins one of the two or three lowest revenue teams in the majors.
All of this is true, but keep in mind that Loria and Samson played hardball with the stadium deal, really screwed the local community with that deal, and were not nice about it. This is not a town that has a good relationship with its team, and it’s not all on the town.
If Stanton is anywhere near as good as he was in 2017 for the next 3 years, then he’s essentially 100% guaranteed to opt out, so how he performs in Year 4 will be relevant for his next contract, not this one.
131 combined. You know that information’s on this site, right?
Yep, Stanton has played 123 games or less in 4 of the last 6 seasons. One of those seasons (2015) was due to a fractured hand caused by getting hit by a pitch, but the other injuries are an array of mostly lower-body injuries (knee, hamstring, groin).
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/baseball/Search/SearchResults.php?Player=giancarlo+stanton&Team=&BeginDate=&EndDate=&PlayerMovementChkBx=yes&DLChkBx=yes&InjuriesChkBx=yes&submit=Search
Really amazed at how many folks are trying to bash the Marlins for this move. Stanton’s contract was an albatross – it is now gone. They added a serviceable second baseman. Have two of the top ten outfielders in the game and a top five catcher. Let’s wait and see how Jeter and his team add pieces going forward before we jump to conclusions
Word is they’re looking to cut more salary, people think they’re gonna try to flip at least one of Castro/Ozuna/Yelich for prospects. The ownership group apparently just does not have the cash to field a competitive team for the next couple years.
Why wouldn’t Marlins fans be upset? They had the MVP and a group of good young players, the chance to finally move on from one of the worst owners in professional sports, and now they’re facing a total rebuild with one of the worst farm systems in the league.
after 3 years of attendance around 1.7M the Marlins WITH the MVP crunching a HR every 3rd game or so dropped to below 1M. AGAIN the Stanton contract was an albatross and would prevent the Marlins from doing anything to make the team better for years to come
If Manfred OKs the Cuban billionaire in Miami instead of Jeter then the Marlins would be buying starting pitching right now instead of unloading their entire team.
The Marlins have a new ballpark, a new TV contract on the way and they have not seen the playoffs in 14 years unless they were watching TV in October.
This is criminal.
Hey Jimmie – how about putting some of your energy into getting some butts in seats. AND I am still waiting for some support/proof that the CB you so much admire would be doing anything different.
Yes – there is still a lot of work to be done – the payroll AFTER this trade stands at $116M. The Chen and Prado contracts are not movable. Hopefully Prado can at least be a 2 WAR player. Yellich with his contract is probably going to bring the biggest haul – but moving Ozuna would save the most $$$. They may be able to dump Volquez at the trade deadline – but probably not over the winter. Getting the payroll to $100M gives them a chance to turn a profit and begin getting back to competitive.
I had a bad source for last years attendance – it was actually in the same range as the prior 3 years – still not where it should be for a team that had the kind of draw that Stanton was last year.
Volquez can’t be dumped at the 2018 trade deadline. He had Tommy John surgery in August 2017, so there’s a good chance that he won’t even pitch at all in 2018.
A logical trade for the Marlins could be to package Yelich with Chen’s contract. Yelich’s team friendly contract still has surplus value even with Chen. My rough estimate is that Yelich’s contract by itself has $100+ million of surplus.
Another idea, as a true investment for the future rebuild to re-stock the farm system, is to trade off basically every player on the current roster with value but keep the bad contracts and let them run-off.
Move Yelich without any bad contracts attached to get an Adam Eaton-type package. Also trade Ozuna and Castro. Ozuna nets something, though much less than Yelich. I don’t think that Castro returns much if anything beyond salary relief – maybe a similar package to Dee Gordon at best. That gets the 2018 payroll down to about $80 million, per Cot’s. $29 million of that runs off after 2018 (Volquez, Ziegler, Tazawa), though Chen and Prado’s combined salaries increase by $11.5 million. Prado’s contract is up after 2019, Chen after 2020.
I think that Ziegler could also be traded if the Marlins pay part of his $9 million in 2018, so they could get salary relief for part of that. Maybe they wait to try for a trade deadline deal in 2018 when relievers are in demand.
Some of Prado’s remaining money looks tradable if he comes back healthy and plays well in 2018. He was a 3+ WAR player as recently as 2016. They could probably move him today if they ate a really big chunk of his contract, but trying to lessen that hit if he bounces back isn’t crazy.
There also arb guys to sell for prospects beyond Ozuna. Realmuto has 3 arb years. MLB Trade Rumors estimates that he’ll get $4.2 million as an Arb1, and he’s a 3+ WAR catcher. Would the Nationals, or maybe the Astros, pay up with prospects to acquire Realmuto.
They have other arb guys (Bour, Dietrich, Straily, Rojas) that probably have some trade value, but I don’t know if they’d net much. Bour might in a vacuum, but there a ton of LH hitting 1B available in free agency, not just the top of the market (Santana and Hosmer) but down through Morrison, Duda, and Alonso. Either way, none of these guys individually cost that much, each less than $5 million in estimated arb salaries in 2018.
The team on the field would be ugly the next couple years. It might be 2012-13 Astros level bad. Perhaps this group wouldn’t want the business and PR hit of such a complete teardown with a fanbase that’s been scarred by the history with Loria. Between the prospect return in trades and some high 1st round draft picks, however, this idea at least offers a path to put a good team on the field in the early 2020’s.
I see more upside in investing money in eating the last years of bad contracts, while trading good players, than in something like paying Ozuna for his last two arb years on a bad team. And, of course, spend money on player development and scouting, spend the team’s full IFA pool each year, and spend the full bonus slot allotment in each draft.
I can understand not being happy as a Marlins fan, but they were realistically facing that whoever bought the team.
Between backloading deals and some contracts that haven’t worked well (such as Chen), the Marlins have both a mediocre team and future payroll that’s out of whack with team revenue. I think that it’s realistically at least a 5-year project to get Miami to a place where revenue rises toward something close to the population of the market, and it’s probably more like a 10-year project even if things go well.
The dream for Marlins fans would be an ownership group that was willing to kick in money to fund pretty big operating losses and support a larger payroll, but I don’t see that it’s realistic to think that a team would be able to find such owners. Mike Ilitch type owners are a rarity, and the Tigers’ estimated revenue is about $70 million per year higher than the Marlins (Forbes estimate for 2016).
The problem is that the “saved a ton of money” thing is predicated entirely on the assumption that Stanton wouldn’t opt out. Now, that’s probably correct. But the notion that he definitely wouldn’t leave after 3 (more) awful years seems off base.
If he does opt out, they’ve saved only $30 million over the next two years, though $56 over the next 3.
If he doesn’t opt out, then yes, they have saved themselves a ton of money.
I just don’t think it’s a guarantee that he doesn’t opt out.
Nailed it !!
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/paul-sporers-2017-bold-predictions-a-review/
francis_soyer, 2 months 5 days ago
Bold offseason prediction: Jeter gifts Stanton to the Yankees. Nobody has the guts to call it suspicious.
( At least nobody in the press, some commenters have figured it out. I suppose one guy will say something and then they’ll lose their job in a few weeks )
And if you’re going to reply with a backlash post, save it.
You’ll just be making my original prediction look that much better.
Looks like you’re the next Ben Reiter lol 😉
Lighten up Francis!
(sorry, I can’t pass up a gift like that!!!)
Uncle Hulka ?
Why would there be a backlash? People who accuse Jeter of buying the Marlins in order to be a Yankee secret agent are the real heroes.
He has a very small stake, 4 percent, he didn’t “buy” the Marlins.
Downvote me all you want.
I saw this because it was obvious.
If you’re downvoting you’re either not paying attention, unable to be objective, or a Yankee fan who doesn’t want to admit to what you know just went down.
Perhaps when you downvote me, you can leave your name and which camp you belong to.
The prediction was great, we’re just downvoting you to watch your hilarious reaction.
You left something off the end there: “If you’re downvoting you’re either not paying attention, unable to be objective, or a Yankee fan who doesn’t want to admit to what you know just went down… [or I’m just making a ridiculously outrageous claim which makes no sense at all when considering the other reported deals from the Giants and Cardinals.]”
“Reported” ….
See how you are actually making my part 2 look better ?
Point is nobody has the guts to report what they are thinking. These reporters are part of the same corporate structure who turned a blind eye in the PED era ( and now act all indignant ).
A player with a 10 year / $265 million contract (reportedly what the Yankees assumed) and a player opt-out after Year 3 can’t really be “gifted” to another team.
Or, if is a gift, it’s like giving someone a house that has a decent chance to collapse – with the gift recipient in it.
A real gift to the Yankees, or any other team, would be to trade Yelich and his team-friendly contract for 50 cents on the dollar. The Marlins may trade Yelich, but we haven’t seen any signs that they’d do it for 50 cents on the dollar.
Dave T, get real. Stanton for Castro + 2 minor lgers is a gift.
If it’s such a burden, why were 4 or 5 teams in on him ?
If they trade him back to Miami in 5 years, I bet you’ll still find a way to rationalize it.
This argument would be stronger if more than one of the teams he was willing to play for were “in on him.”
1) There was at least one team, probably more that you don’t know of.
2) If it was so obvious he would have to go to NY, why did you all miss it ?
3) Very easy to tell Stanton, “this is where you are going, take it or stay here with garbage – and say you won’t go to STL or SF”. Very easy
Read Bob Nightengale’s reporting of the other trade offers – https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/12/10/mlb-winter-meetings-preview-trade-rumors-free-agents/938521001/
The Cardinals reportedly would take on “nearly $250 million” of Stanton’s contract and trade two pretty good (50 or 55 FV) prospects, Sandy Alcantara and Jack Flaherty.
The Giants reportedly would take on $230 million of Stanton’s contract and trade one pretty good (50, maybe 55 FV) prospect, Tyler Beede, and one lesser prospect in Aramis Garcia.
The Yankees are taking on more money than either of these offers. The Yankees overall offer looks pretty clearly better than the one from the Giants, and not dramatically worse than the one from the Cardinals.
If we look at the Cardinals’ offer as the top of the trade market for Stanton, then the Yankees paid something like 95 cents on the dollar. That’s hardly a “gift”, especially not in an auction-like process where the expectation is that the high bidder wins.
Bob Nightengale didn’t say Jeter would gift Stanton to NY 2 months ago now, did he ?
He’s fed a story and he reports it. Big deal.
You’re all making me look better and better with your denials. So many people bending over backwards to rationalize this.
Hey, I upvoted you for that. I never saw that coming, and I would definitely take a bow if I called that.
Aww shucks. I’m more proud of part 2 than part 1.
I’m sure a lot of people are rolling their eyes behind the scenes in the league office, but Jeter’s a made guy and he just told Rob Manfred to go get his shine box.
Maybe they mistook Jose Devers for his cousin and thought they were getting Rafael Devers?
To everyone who was outraged by the deal from the Miami side….what were the alternatives, besides having a better financed purchaser from Loria who wouldn’t have been compelled to make this deal–or any deal. If you get Manfred to block the deal…you still have economically weak ownership.
Yes to all this. If the Marlins fan has anything to be mad about, it’s (1) Loria giving Stanton the deal with the ridiculous back-loading after the opt-out year and (2) MLB letting a weak ownership block give Loria his $billion plus.
Marlins have a new ballpark and TV deal on the way. This is the MLB mafia looting the Miami market.
The Cuban billionaire would be buying pitching, maybe Darvish and Arrieta right now instead of going into a ten year rebuild.
Jeter and Manfred are unindicted criminals.
How in the hell do you have any clue what the “Cuban Billionaire” would be doing at this point. And Travis is totally off base. First, how can you evaluate Jeter and his team at this point – lets see how the navigate two or three full seasons. Second, NO TEAM drawing less than a million a year in fans can afford Stanton – add in two previous injury shortened years he was gone no matter who bought the team
The Marlins have no payroll.
The Marlins own the 16th largest media market in the USA.
The Reds own the smallest media market in the USA and have the contracts of Joey Votto and Homer Bailey.
even after today the the Marlins are on the hook for $116M – the Reds are at $98M. The Marlins two worst contracts – Chen and Prado are WAY less productive/valuable than the Votto Bailey deals are for the Reds.
AND BTW – the Reds have a great TV contract compared to the Marlins and Can draw 3M+ when competitive.
The Reds also have about $25 million more in annual revenue than the Marlins, per Forbes estimates for 2016. The Reds draw more fans and have more local TV revenue.
The Reds’ opening day payroll was $90 to $95 million per year in each of 2016 and 2017. The Marlins were going to be a bit over $130 million for 2018 before they started cutting, and Jimmie makes the ludicrous claim in other comments that different owners would have pushed that way higher by signing Arrieta or Darvish.
So the Marlins for 2018, before they started trading away players, looked to be in about a $60 million worse financial position than the Reds: $25 million less of revenue and $35 million more of payroll.
Sorry to go off on a tangent here, but as a New York Rangers fan, the day the Islanders signed Don Maloney to be their GM was a great day. They still haven’t recovered.
“why an ownership group that paid $1.2 billion to buy the Marlins in the summer cannot afford its best player, and has been so desperate to move its best player.”
I also wonder why a group paid $1.2 billion for a franchise in such terrible shape, but it’s not at all hard to see why the Marlins are cutting payroll and traded Stanton. The Marlins revenue is down around the same level as the Rays due to anemic attendance and what’s essentially tied for the lowest-revenue local TV contracts. The Rays have run Opening Day 25-man payrolls in the $65 to $75 million range in recent years. The Marlins were at a bit over $130 million for 2018 before they started cutting.
Maybe it’s one thing to run that level of payroll if it’s paying for a really good team with the thought being to eat short-term operating losses with a reasonable expectation that playoff appearances would drive fan interest, attendance, and revenue increases over time. That’s not what it would be funding, however. It would be bringing back almost exactly the same team that went 77-85 in 2017, matching its Pythag record and very close to its Base Runs record (79 -83). A team that also has one of the worst farm systems of any team, maybe the worst, so help isn’t coming from there in the form of graduations or trade chips.
TLDR: we all can understand why the Rays and A’s don’t run $130 million payrolls or have players with 10 years / $295 million remaining on contracts. The Marlins are in the same category revenue-wise, so it shouldn’t at all be surprising that they’re cutting payroll and trading Stanton.
Pretty sure this is the sensible take that the vast majority of the readership of this site would agree with. There’s a couple of “b-but COLLUSION! JEETS IS A PROVEN SECRET AGENT” and “CUBAN BILLIONAIRE HERO WOULDN’T DO THIS” but those comment’s scores seem to properly reflect our collective opinions.
It sure does reflect your collective opinions.
cahooooooooooTS…
CAhoooooooooTS…
CAHOOTS…with a capital TS…
Nah I’m just kidding….Im sure JETER just wants a blank canvas to work with….he has a plan…and a fully functional INVESTIGATION is not needed….i overreacted and I apologize to Mr.Jeter and the Yankees for accusing them of being in CAHOOTS
That’s okay — one should never miss a reasonable chance to say CAHOOTS.
So Jeter the John McGraw of our day. McGraw as player-manager-minority owner played a role in looting the Orioles on behalf of the Giants, and then signed with the Giants for the next 30 yrs (reverse of Jeter) . The Orioles were moved to NY as a result and sometime later became the Yankees.
Seriously though great move for the Yankees. They will hit 300 HR as a team. Its not just the dimensions of YS3, the ball carries better there which is something the charts dont reflect. Also, Orioles pitching staff and more HR friendly parks in the East as a whole
The only question is will we see the juiced ball next year.
He’s the Kevin McHale of our day.
Theo should trade Maddon, Bryant, and Rizzo to the Sox for JBJ and see if anyone complains.
The issues with this analogy are fourfold.
1) Rizzo has been more valuable than Stanton over the last 4 years.
2) Rizzo is cheaper than Stanton.
3) The Cubs can afford to pay him without running a loss.
4) Rizzo does not have any NTC, much less a full one.
Yankee Stadium II was demolished following the 2008 season. A public park exists in its place. Stanton has as much chance as I do to hit a home run in Yankee Stadium II.