Is the Shift Killing Offense in MLB?
Last week, Tom Verducci wrote a story at Sports Illustrated suggesting that perhaps Major League Baseball should consider some kind of “illegal defense” rule to reduce the effects of shifting, which has grown significantly in popularity over the last few years. In the article, Verducci notes that shifting has disproportionately hurt left-handed hitters, and is part of why offense is down so much over the last few years.
But I’m not actually sure that is true. Sure, shifting hurts some players, but just for fun, take a look at the league batting average on balls in play for each of the last 30 years.
| Season | BABIP |
|---|---|
| 1985 | 0.281 |
| 1986 | 0.286 |
| 1987 | 0.289 |
| 1988 | 0.282 |
| 1989 | 0.283 |
| 1990 | 0.287 |
| 1991 | 0.285 |
| 1992 | 0.285 |
| 1993 | 0.294 |
| 1994 | 0.300 |
| 1995 | 0.298 |
| 1996 | 0.301 |
| 1997 | 0.301 |
| 1998 | 0.300 |
| 1999 | 0.302 |
| 2000 | 0.300 |
| 2001 | 0.296 |
| 2002 | 0.293 |
| 2003 | 0.294 |
| 2004 | 0.297 |
| 2005 | 0.295 |
| 2006 | 0.301 |
| 2007 | 0.303 |
| 2008 | 0.300 |
| 2009 | 0.299 |
| 2010 | 0.297 |
| 2011 | 0.295 |
| 2012 | 0.297 |
| 2013 | 0.297 |
| 2014 | 0.299 |
The rate of hits on balls that defenders could theoretically turn into outs is about the same now as it was for most of the 1990s, when home runs were plentiful and every team could score five runs per game. In fact, as shifts have become more prevalent over the last few years, the overall rate of hits on balls in play has gone up, not down.
Offense isn’t down across Major League Baseball because fewer in-play balls are getting past defenders. Offense is down in Major League Baseball because the league average strikeout rate is 20.3 percent, the highest it has ever been. If we want to change some the game to bring offense back to baseball, the strike zone is the first place to start.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
If shifted sluggers are starting to use all fields, you’d expect to see BABIP increase but at the expense of SLG, so reducing offense overall (quite apart from the impact of K%).
This was my thought as well. Offensive value of balls in play might be measured best by something other than average.
Any thoughts on why the league BABIP was down in the .280s consistently from 85-92?
I’m a bit too young to have been able to watch baseball back then and get any true meaning from it, so was the game played differently or is it just a few fluky years that happen to be there?
Ozzie Smith.
Here’s an idea: call the actual strike zone. Probably don’t rely on human eyes for this.
So are you saying teams are making a mistake by even bothering to shift their defense? Whether or not it’s succeeding, the goal of shifting is to limit offense. So if it’s not, why should teams continue doing it?
Is there a SLGBIP stat somewhere? That might be useful for this discussion.
I think you want SLGCON – you don’t want to ignore home runs, since the shift may be limiting home runs.
Rough calc excluding home runs, SLGBIP 201 = .5604.
I also ignored HBP, because I’m at work.
But yes, that’s probably a good idea. Although including home runs is probably going to bring out the steroid counterargument.
TL;DR: BABIP has been holding steady for about 20 years, so the historically high league strikout rate is probably a better place to look.
Is a TLDR necessary on a post literally designed to be brief?
And that’s the joke!
This is the first InstaGraphs post I’ve read, and I like it.
Makes sense, since it’s the first one
Verducci is just another example of people trying to change the rules instead of adapting to the competition.
Any chance that (as illustrated in an article earlier this week about Carlos Santana) strikeouts are up because people are trying to hit over the shift?
I was wondering the same thing.
I don’t think you can look at the league BABIP only because left handed hitters I would think suffer from the shift more than right handed hitters. What I would like to see is how the BABIP for left handed hitters in the league compares to the right handed hitters in the league for BABIP. I just think using the average doesn’t give us the whole story. I mean are right handed hitters who don’t see the shift as prevalently hitting a lot better than left hand hitters who see the shift more often. These are things I would like to know.
I would push the mound back farther and shrink the strikezone in an attempt to increase offense. I think too much pitching is being wasted in the league and pitching is too one sided. A mostly pitching league is good for the hardcore fans, but you need to draw those casual fans back because of the drop of tv ratings.
“I would push the mound back farther and shrink the strikezone in an attempt to increase offense.”
You monster.