Josh Donaldson Reportedly Traded to Club with Best Third Baseman
On the most superficial level, this has something of the absurd about it:
Sources: Josh Donaldson has been told he's been traded to the Cleveland Indians.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 1, 2018
Josh Donaldson, when healthy, is one of the best third baseman in the majors. He’s talented both offensively and also defensively, which is almost all the ways a ballplayer can be talented. He’d represent an upgrade on basically any of baseball’s contending clubs.
That’s basically any of baseball’s contending clubs. Not all of them, though. A brief examination of this site’s WAR leaderboard for position players reveals why.
Rk | Name | Team | PA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | Red Sox | 525 | 184 | 58.3 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
2 | Jose Ramirez | Indians | 579 | 164 | 53.4 | 6.1 | 8.1 |
3 | Mike Trout | Angels | 508 | 190 | 59.7 | 1.4 | 8.0 |
4 | Francisco Lindor | Indians | 614 | 138 | 27.6 | 17.6 | 6.7 |
5 | Alex Bregman | Astros | 592 | 156 | 42.4 | -0.4 | 6.3 |
This table feature the top-five major-league position players by WAR currently. Two of those players have recorded the majority of their starts at third base. Alex Bregman is one of them. As noted by Jeff Sullivan recently, Houston’s Alex Bregman is an emerging superstar — is perhaps, now, even a fully emerged superstar. Josh Donaldson — and, in particular, a version of Josh Donaldson who hasn’t appeared in a major-league game since late May — likely would not represent an improvement on Bregman for the Astros.
Even closer to the top of the leaderboard, though, is Jose Ramirez. However modest his pedigree as a prospect, Ramirez has become one of the game’s greatest players. He has more trade value than anyone else in the majors, according to Kiley McDaniel. He’s possibly en route to a 10-win season, according to Jay Jaffe. He could possibly break baseball, according to Dan Szymborski. If one takes for granted that waiver-deadline trades are most frequently executed by contending clubs looking to address known weaknesses, then the notion of Cleveland acquiring a third baseman would represent one of the least possible outcomes. They already have the best one of those.
In reality, of course, this deal (if and when it happens) won’t be a case of Cleveland attempting to address a deficiency at third base. Rather, it could very well represent an attempt by the club to address one of its actual shortcomings — namely, center field — by a sort of positional ripple effect. Because of his positional flexibility, Jose Ramirez could switch to second base following the arrival of Donaldson. And because of his positional flexibility, Jason Kipnis could possibly serve as a reinforcement for what is projected as one of the worse center fields in the majors.

It’s very possible that Cleveland is acquiring Donaldson to address (indirectly!) their center-field needs. If healthy, Josh Donaldson could greatly improve Cleveland’s center-field production without ever playing an inning there. As for the cost to Cleveland, that remains unclear. As for a number of other things, they also remain unclear. For the moment, however, it seems as though Cleveland has acquired an elite bat for the middle of their lineup while simultaneously addressing one of the club’s few weaknesses.
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Yay! Greg Allen has actually been hitting somewhat respectably recently with good defense in center. I wonder if they’d consider putting Kipnis in right. A defensive outfield of brantley, kipnis, and melky cabrera scares me.
Right now the biggest gain is from making Kipnis a twice a week backup/utility.
Cabrera has been adequate offensively and Allen is starting to adjust to the majors. With Gomes close to peak Gomes the only real offensive hole is 2B.
The team can probably survive with Allen’s bat and Cabrera’s glove as long as Allen’s glove and Cabrera’s bat deliver.
But that bullpen…
Allen’s “adjustment” to the majors has mostly come against the dregs of the Central. Which means it’s mostly been against AAAA pitching. And even with that he’s only hit .278/.311/.340 since being recalled.
Kipnis, on the other hand, has hit just fine after an awful start. I’m cherry-picking a bit but over the past 60 games he’s hit .265/.362/.456.
Anyway, hopefully Donaldson becomes Alonso’s platoon partner against lefties. Against righties, he’d play 3rd with Ramirez at 2nd and an outfield of Brantley/Kipnis/Cabrera. Allen’s role would be pinch runner/late inning defensive replacement.
If the OF were the main concern why not go for McCutcheon? They had to pass on him for him to get to the yanks and he still plays a better CF than Kipnis.
I still think getting Donaldson is about reducing their exposure to Kipnis.
The changes of Terry Francona drastically reducing the playing time of a veteran player a month before the playoffs, a player who’s been with him his whole tenure in Cleveland, a player who’s helped him win lots of games, a player who is still productive (1.1 BWar, 1.8 FWar) is basically nil.
As for why Donaldson instead and not McCutcheon, I can think of a few reasons. While there’s more risk with Donaldson, there’s also a lot more upside. Donaldson is a potential game changer in a way that McCutcheon isn’t. Also the price for Donaldson in terms of both $$$ and (likely) prospects.
BTW, McCutcheon is absolutely dreadful in center.
If Jason Kipnis were in right field the opposing team’s baserunners could walk from 1st to 3b on singles. His arm is … not good