Mitch Moreland Will Be on the Red Sox Again
How do you respond when your fiercest rival picks up Giancarlo Stanton? Well, I don’t care how you respond. Here’s how the Red Sox have responded.
Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to a two-year deal.
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) December 18, 2017
Mitch Moreland, two years, $13 million. If he hits all his incentives, it’ll be $14 million instead. This isn’t something that would take the Red Sox out of the running for every free agent, but this does seem to take the Sox out of the running for Eric Hosmer. We’ll get to that.
I think there are two ways to look at this. If you want to be optimistic, you might note that Moreland injured a toe in the middle of June, and then that toe injury seems to have cascaded into a knee injury. Moreland’s 2017 splits are of some significance:
| Split | PA | wRC+ | Hard% | Exit Velo | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through 6/13 | 247 | 128 | 46% | 90 | 0.395 |
| After 6/15 | 327 | 76 | 35% | 89 | 0.353 |
Before the injuries, Moreland was really quite good! The Red Sox might figure that Moreland is healthy again, so they might figure they’ll get more of that early-season edition moving forward. At 32, Moreland isn’t young, but he’s not so old you’d expect him to fall flat on his face. There’s still some power in there, he improved his walk rate, and he’s long been a good defender at first base. It’s possible to look at this and conclude the Red Sox have a potential bargain on their hands.
Yet Moreland is coming off a 0.9 WAR season. This is where you go if you want to be pessimistic. Moreland has been in the majors for eight seasons, and only once has he been worth at least one win above replacement. His career WAR is 5.1, over 3,338 plate appearances. That’s 0.9 WAR per 600. Based on the Steamer projections, on a per-600-PA basis, Moreland ranks as the 42nd-best first baseman. There are 30 major-league baseball teams. You can see the upside in how Moreland got started this past year, but he doesn’t have a very encouraging record. This would appear to be an investment in veteran mediocrity.
The Red Sox could still conceivably try to go after J.D. Martinez. They’d have to move an outfielder, or move on from Hanley Ramirez. Neither is too high a hurdle. But the Hosmer angle is also important, because it doesn’t seem like Hosmer has a very large market at all. Maybe I’m just misreading things, or maybe it’s a consequence of Scott Boras’ sky-high price tag. In theory, if it came down, more teams could get involved. But by far the hottest suitor has been San Diego, and the competition they face might be…limited…to…Kansas City. Boston had been included in there, as a big-budget team with a positional need, but now they’re out. At this point I’d be pretty surprised if Hosmer didn’t end up with the Padres. That’s a weird sentence.
Anyhow, Hosmer is for another day. This day is for the Red Sox re-signing Mitch Moreland. It’s not a move that doesn’t have upside. That’s about as much as I think I can sell it.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
In the table, it says after 6/15 Moreland had a .353 xwOBA, but he had a 76 wRC+. Did he get super, super unlucky, or is this an error?
Moreland seems to consistently underperform his expected wOBA, probably because he is left-handed and slow.
Mitch Moreland 2017 xWOBA = .371
Eric Hosmer 2017 xWOBA = .353
He did hit this year like he was expected to last year. His upside is he could hit next year like he was expected to this year. Also, his after toe numbers were REALLY bad for 6 weeks, then he had a 175 wRC+ in August.
The move should come as no surprise. Eric Hosmer has a lifetime wRC+ of only 111, has been at or below replacement value in three of the past six years, and has as an agent a man in Scott Boras demanding what one would expect to pay a player projected to produce 4 WAR consistently over the next six or season years, demands that are delusional.
Far better for the Red Sox to sign Moreland and use the money save to sign JD Martinez, who has a 148 wRC+ since he revamped his swing in 2014, and/or to save money for what is shaping up to be a monster free agent class at the end of 2018.
The funny part of this is that Eric Hosmer actually would be a better fit in Fenway Park than most places. One of the commenters here did a bunch of research showing that lefties who go the opposite way a lot in Fenway do very well. Hosmer is #19 in opposite field hits over the last 3 years, and a lot of those guys aren’t lefties.
The problem with that is that just because Hosmer is a good fit for Fenway still does not mean he’s a consistent enough player to justify that huge contract he’s looking for. If his price dropped below $100 million they might take another look but I doubt it will.
Hosmer does hit the opposite way quite a bit, as you noted. But he also hits few fly balls, and it is my impression that the left-handed hitters who benefit most from Fenway are those who hit opposite field fly balls that would be routine outs in most parks but can be doubles off the Green Monster. A more typical opposite field hit for Hosmer, at least relative to the norm, is a line drive, and I would guess that more of those liners would end up being singles in Fenway, when played off the wall, than in a more spacious left field where liners in the gap lead to doubles.
I just googled it. I don’t have the time to look through it carefully, but Peter Bonney was the guy who did it and here is his powerpoint:
https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/EI8pJmOiLQevlU
And here is his article at THT:
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/new-findings-about-an-old-park/
From a first glance, it looks like “high double lefties” who go the opposite way get way more of an advantage than anyone else (righty or lefty). Hosmer actually qualifies, although as I said before he still probably wouldn’t be worth that price tag.
“High doubles lefties” definitely do get a boost from Fenway in most cases. To know how much of a boost Hosmer would get one would have to look at his fly balls to left. As most have noted, it’s the fly ball that is routinely an out in most parks that turns into a double in Fenway. If most of his opposite field hits are line drives he may not benefit much, and if they’re balls that drop-in for hits he may suffer since most left fielders play quite shallow at Fenway.
That said, it’s only half the season so paying for Hosmer because he might maximize Fenway’s left field probably isn’t a great practice. I give credit to Dombrowski and his staff here for not reaching on Hosmer when it doesn’t seem like he’s a great longterm fit. It’s a mistake to acquire a player simply because he’s the best available right now. Sometimes you need to acknowledge the right fit for your club isn’t available at an acceptable price and just do the best you can.
https://www.mlb.com/news/how-a-new-home-could-affect-eric-hosmer-power/c-263643446
Hosmer only hit 41 fly balls this year that went at least 300 feet (fewer than Alcides freaking Escobar), so playing at Fenway wouldn’t really make much of a difference.
Doesn’t get the blood pumping, but I think its a better move than paying too much in cash for Hosmer or paying too much in prospects for Abreu. My optimism lies in the avoidance of other potential mistakes.
Hosmer is partially a victim of advanced stats. Otherwise, you would look at his top line numbers from 2016 (25 HR/104 RBI, All Star) and you might otherwise figure that a dozen more hits (bloops, better-placed line drives) puts his BA and OBP in the right range. Boras knows that as well, which is why he’s also pushing the leadership, etc. model.
Isn’t there likely some benefit in just having Moreland to deflate the price of Hosmer? Not that I think for a second that the Red Sox are doing that, but Hosmer’s market must have cratered by more than $12mmm (total guaranteed) because of this, no? I can’t see what leverage Boras has. If Boston wanted they could still put a low ball March bid on Hosmer and just eat half of the Moreland deal and come out ahead, no? Like a stylized version of the Cashman Bubba Crosby strategy.
Hosmer and Boras have got to hate this. The only teams potentially in the first base market now are SD, KC, NYM, and LAA. SD & KC aren’t in the right place on the win curve to pay for Hosmer and NYM will likely roll with Dom Smith. LAA could use an upgrade on Cron, but why spend top dollar on Hosmer when you can just wait out Morrison/Alonso/Duda?
It looks for all the world like SD is competing with themselves here. Not sure the Angels are going to take on another giant contract at first base under any circumstances. KC would love to have him back, but I doubt they can come anywhere near SD financially right now, which of course the Padres have to know. If St. Louis could move Matt Carpenter plus a left-side infielder for Machado or Donaldson I could see them jumping in. Or maybe the Astros go for broke unexpectedly. But otherwise, this market is just awful. San Diego looked like a weird fit, but no wonder they’re in here.
Moreland has a career 2.15 FIP. What’s not to like???
Seriously though, BR has him with 2.0 WAR last year and 6.9 in his career. So it’s possible that his value is a bit higher than what this article gives him credit for.
I actually do want to see Moreland go two-way.
Team pays 1-WAR 1B like 1-WAR 1B.
Here’s something I don’t understand:
— Last offseason, Boston was able to sign the free-agent Moreland for 1 year at $5.5 million, for age 31.
— So, after one season utterly consistent with his past mediocre performance, why is Moreland worth a 2-year commitment for age 32-33, at a higher AAV?
Simple. Wins Above Replacement has become less important than Cost Below Hosmer..
One easy way to reconcile this is simply to look at his performance by bWAR.
bWAR only changes the picture if you believe his age 29-31 value supersedes everything he did before that. Overall, he’s averaged 0.9 bWAR per year, excluding his rookie call-up. His bWAR and fWAR totals are similar, and his projected fWAR this year is 1.0 or less.
It’s possible they just want to tie down this position (even in a mediocre but cost-effective manner) and try to focus on bigger things. Boras was pushing Hosmer/JD as a pair. Two years of mediocrity, or maybe shorter than that if someone else emerges. It’s not enough of an economic commitment to not be disposable.
I read the “pair” theory, but I don’t buy it. It’s easy for us to think of these players as a bunch of stats, but at the end of the day they are people with a bunch of weird wants and needs that agents have to keep in mind, not widgets. They are giving 5% of their contracts to these agents. I can’t believe Martinez would put up potentially taking a discount or going to Boston under less than ideal circumstances to get Hosmer a better deal, especially when Boras has represented Martinez for only a few months.
He’s a league average hitter (career OPS+ of 100) and a little bit of pop (3 straight years with 20+ HRs) and good D metrics at 1B. I think he’s underpaid because people expect big sluggers at 1B.
The reason he’s getting paid a little more now is that the 1/$5.5M was for platooning at 1B with Hanley, which didn’t happen and isn’t going to happen, and what tz said above.
I really don’t believe this takes the Red Sox out of the market. It’s a really inexpensive deal, and they could still be in for Hosmer at the right price. Also, Moreland can fit a role as a backup/platoon outfielder as well
Have no idea what the Red Sox are thinking. Even if you don’t want Hosmer, there is still Duda, Morrison, and Alonso on the market with not that many teams needing 1bmen. How much worse are Matt Adams and Mike Napoli even? Take a shot on a rebound from Adrian Gonzalez. The point is that there are tons of 1bman so committing two years and not at a bargain rate for a proven mediocre player is very strange.
When you mentioned Adrian Gonzalez, I almost regurgitated my dinner. You apparently have no understanding of the events that preceded his leaving town on that glorious date of August 26, 2012. To say that he left Boston under a cloud doesn’t even come close to the level of animosity that virtually all members of Red Sox Nation have for him.
The sad truth is the most ardent fanbase tends to be toxic regardless of which sports or team it represents.
Gonzalez was great in his first year as a Red Sox
and was good enough the next season to allow the team to dump Carl Crawford’s salary.
However, for some reason, the Red Sox fans decided to make Gonzalez a scapegoat for the team’s epic collapse in September 2011 even though Gonzalez himself performed well during that time.
It is fine to harbor an irrational hate for someone who did your team a favor, but just know it looks silly and petty outside that circle of like-minded people.
tung, it was mostly A-Gon’s ‘Que sera sera’ attitude, not hitting prowess, that (what’s the opposite of endeared) him to Sox fans.
You are correct. His infamous quote was “They take their baseball much too seriously there.” After that the locals brought out the tar and feathers.
I’m forever grateful to AGon for being the piece that actually got LAD to take on Crawford’s contract.
You are also correct. If the Dodgers didn’t have a man crush on him the Red Sox would not have seen the light of day for many years.
I think this is a totally logical move to make…in January. It’s not like there was a shortage of similarly-talented first basemen out there, with Morrison and Alonso and Duda all hanging out. Why not just wait for whoever is left? Is it that important to get Moreland over the others?
It seems like the downside is this closes off getting Abreu and/or JD Martinez without dumping Hanley (or Moreland, for that matter), but maybe this is their way of Dombrowski walking away from the table, saying to the White Sox and Martinez/Boras: “Come back when you are willing to talk sense.”
I am really intrigued by this move, which is weird because it is just Mitch Moreland.
Moreland over the other available FA first basemen is probably a case of “The Devil You Know.” They know how he fits their team and clubhouse based on being there last year. Maybe they do genuinely belive injury sapped him of his production. His consistent D makes him a fairly high floor player and natural platoon for Hanley which could in turn help them to keep Hanley from triggering his option for 2019.
It’s also a move to gain some leverage with Boras. It’s obviously in Boras’ best interest to keep the Red Sox as a potential player for Hosmer until he can get him signed to a stupid contact somewhere, and the best way to do that is to not have the Red Sox sign any big bat. With this move, it presumably leaves Boras with less of a reason to not proceed with Martinez negotiations, especially now that Longoria has gone to SF.
30+ year old veterans everywhere are taking note that the Sox are signing players for one year per injury suffered during sub-par seasons. Somewhere David Wright is counting up the dollar signs in his head.
The albatross that is Hanley Ramirez’s inability to play first base is hanging around the neck of the Red Sox. It will be a bitter pill if the Sox have to eat another contract but what other course of action is there if they want to bring J.D. Martinez on board, but putting Martinez in the outfield, and it can’t be RF, and removing Bradley from that same outfield is a thought that is too painful for any Sox fan to even contemplate. Oh the pain of it all, caught between a rock and a hard place with the ghost of Ben Cherington continuing to haunt the hallowed grounds of the Cathedral of New England.
You realize Cherington is at least partially responsible for most of the good young players on the Red Sox? I’d take Cherington in a heartbeat over DD.
I don’t know how either of them are GMs. Both are great at one aspect of their jobs and so piss poor at others – I mean Cherrington drafted fantastic position players but was terrible at drafting pitching or identifying free agents. If you honestly look at most of DD’s trades, they have worked out for him, Scherzer, Cabrerea, Pomeranz, Kimbrell, but once he strips a farm, he never builds it back. Plus he has a tendency to overpay.
Plan A – Sign JD Martinez, start HanRam/Moreland platoon, dump HanRam next year to sign Kershaw or some other great FA in 2019. Blow through CBT tax for two years and then get under cap in 2020 when Porcello/Sandoval come off the books.
Plan B – Replace JD Martinez in plan A with “best available hitter with power” and repeat.
Plan C – Go with a Moreland/HanRam/Travis combo at 1B/DH. Run out there with less competitive team, but not due to lack of trying. Sign Kershaw and/or one more great FA in 2019 as HanRam is off books and we went on the cheap in 2018. Blow through CBT tax for one year and then get under cap in 2020 when Porcello/Sandoval come off the books.
I wonder if Dombrowski has a backup play in mind if things don’t go his way this winter–stay pat until May-June and see if the player he has already acquired twice has re-emerged as the best hitter in baseball. Detroit will pay some of that contract, and Dombrowski will then cut Ramirez if he’s not hitting, and keep him if he is to pinch hit and spell Moreland.
Outlandish prediction:
Red Sox trade Moreland and JBJ to White Sox for Abreau and quality 4th outfielder who can cover CF; Mookie moves to center; J-Mart signs with Red Sox.
Why would Mookie move to CF? Last year when JBJ was hurt it was Benintendi who moved. I think if they trade JBJ, Benintendi is the CF.
Including previous articles regarding a possible JBJ, I think a lot of people just forgot that Benintendi exists at all.
You can’t trade a player on a deal for more than one year in the first season of that contract before the summer by MLB rules.
Random rule question – I really don’t know the answer but am curious – Lets say the Red Sox DFA Hanley Ramirez say in June this year, and he is say 300 ABs shy of his vesting option. If another team picks him up and his option vests, are the Red Sox responsible for his contract in 2019 minus the minimum?
I have no idea why we didn’t just do the smart thing and sign Carlos Santana, but this makes me happy in that at least it means they won’t waste their money on Eric fucking Hosmer.
Also came here to say why didn’t they just top the Phillies’ offer for Santana? But I’d rather have a cheap body at first for a couple years than an overpaid Hosmer for the better part of a decade, so this is fine.
Funny thing is that if the Red Sox could get Hosmer for what Santana got, I’d say sure, what the neck. At that price the deal would be sort of like Porcello’s extension, no bargain but a reasonable market price for a guy who’s still young.
But compared to Boras’s target price, I’d rather take Kemp off the Dodgers hands.
Hey, it’s better than giving Hosmer $150 million.