A little while ago, I took a look at the potential variability in a pitcher’s ERA based on their peripherals, with the promise that this week I would look at each individual pitcher’s likely ERA spread for this year.

Here is that. There’s a (sortable) table within this post with some information including a point estimate, the standard deviation of each pitcher’s ERAs (with 1,000 simulations), and the 10th and 90th percentile ERAs. Download this .csv file for a more detailed table with more percentile estimates, BABIP estimates, some more various information, and about 200 more pitchers (the following table is cut off at pitchers projected for 55 innings or more).

Speaking of innings, the number of innings used for this is the number projected by the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which are set by humans who know what’s going on with each team and player. This is the most accurate way, probably, of predicting how many innings each pitcher will throw. Of course, the results will be different for a given pitcher if he ends up throwing a different amount of innings, as the number of innings pitched greatly affects the variability. Additionally, the K% and BB% that were used as inputs were obtained from those depth charts, which use ZiPS and Steamer averaged together (they do not, however, have batted ball distribution projections; for that, I used the methods in this post).

Name	Avg. ERA	Standard Deviation	10th percentile	90th percentile	2015 Projected IP
Aroldis Chapman	1.92	0.6804	1.14	2.79	65
Craig Kimbrel	2.23	0.7561	1.27	3.30	65
John Holdzkom	2.37	0.834	1.35	3.45	55
Greg Holland	2.55	0.796	1.65	3.68	65
Andrew Miller	2.57	0.7721	1.65	3.56	65
Ken Giles	2.62	0.8257	1.65	3.68	65
Kenley Jansen	2.64	0.8249	1.52	3.68	65
Clayton Kershaw	2.65	0.4344	2.10	3.20	232
Brad Boxberger	2.69	0.8569	1.65	3.94	65
David Robertson	2.75	0.8474	1.65	3.94	65
Jake McGee	2.76	0.8342	1.78	3.81	65
Felix Hernandez	2.78	0.458	2.21	3.35	217
Koji Uehara	2.78	0.8393	1.78	3.94	65
Zach Britton	2.81	0.829	1.78	3.94	65
Dellin Betances	2.82	0.8867	1.78	3.94	65
Mark Melancon	2.84	0.869	1.78	3.94	65
Stephen Strasburg	2.92	0.488	2.33	3.59	191
Evan Marshall	2.94	0.9525	1.80	4.20	55
Randy Choate	2.94	0.8832	1.91	4.19	65
Sean Doolittle	2.94	0.9012	1.80	4.20	55
Pedro Strop	2.95	0.8806	1.91	4.06	65
Chris Sale	2.96	0.4731	2.37	3.63	216
Joaquin Benoit	2.98	0.8463	1.91	4.06	65
Chad Qualls	2.99	0.9521	1.80	4.20	55
Corey Kluber	3.01	0.486	2.41	3.62	212
Brad Ziegler	3.07	0.8578	2.03	4.19	65
Steve Cishek	3.07	0.9388	1.91	4.32	65
Jeurys Familia	3.09	0.9904	1.80	4.35	55
Max Scherzer	3.10	0.4891	2.47	3.72	211
Madison Bumgarner	3.10	0.4576	2.54	3.70	221
Joe Smith	3.11	0.8703	2.03	4.32	65
Brett Anderson	3.12	0.8167	2.04	4.18	81
Trevor Rosenthal	3.13	0.8727	2.03	4.32	65
Jose Fernandez	3.15	0.6219	2.37	3.97	129
Brett Cecil	3.15	0.8767	2.16	4.32	65
Hisashi Iwakuma	3.15	0.4965	2.51	3.80	204
Alex Cobb	3.16	0.5145	2.51	3.86	197
Luke Gregerson	3.17	0.874	2.03	4.32	65
Tyson Ross	3.17	0.5628	2.49	3.91	169
Seth Maness	3.18	0.9609	1.95	4.35	55
David Price	3.18	0.497	2.59	3.87	220
Sean Burnett	3.18	0.9049	2.03	4.45	65
Jenrry Mejia	3.19	0.9157	2.03	4.45	65
Tony Watson	3.19	0.9782	1.95	4.50	55
Cliff Lee	3.20	0.6534	2.41	4.05	106
Drew Storen	3.20	0.9118	2.03	4.45	65
Cody Allen	3.21	0.9147	2.03	4.32	65
Wade Davis	3.21	0.9594	2.03	4.45	65
Zach Duke	3.22	0.926	2.03	4.45	65
Jeff Samardzija	3.23	0.5094	2.58	3.89	208
Will Smith	3.23	0.8707	2.23	4.35	74
Hyun-Jin Ryu	3.23	0.5262	2.59	3.95	188
Bobby Parnell	3.23	0.9365	2.03	4.45	65
Santiago Casilla	3.24	0.9006	2.03	4.45	65
Carlos Carrasco	3.24	0.5456	2.55	3.92	162
Dallas Keuchel	3.25	0.5041	2.61	3.88	215
J.P. Howell	3.28	0.9282	2.03	4.45	65
Jonathan Papelbon	3.28	0.8767	2.16	4.45	65
Francisco Liriano	3.29	0.5826	2.54	4.01	169
Sergio Romo	3.29	0.9108	2.16	4.45	65
Fernando Rodney	3.30	0.952	2.16	4.45	65
Javier Lopez	3.31	1.0678	2.10	4.65	55
Johnny Cueto	3.32	0.5136	2.70	3.99	205
Shawn Kelley	3.33	0.9673	2.10	4.50	55
Jordan Walden	3.33	1.0149	2.10	4.80	55
Jonathan Broxton	3.33	0.9487	2.16	4.57	65
Tyler Clippard	3.34	0.912	2.16	4.57	65
Kelvin Herrera	3.34	0.9851	2.10	4.65	55
Cole Hamels	3.34	0.5042	2.71	3.98	216
Pat Neshek	3.34	0.8874	2.29	4.57	65
Zack Greinke	3.35	0.5174	2.70	4.05	202
Joakim Soria	3.35	0.9291	2.29	4.45	65
Garrett Richards	3.35	0.5999	2.58	4.15	157
Darren O’Day	3.36	0.9204	2.16	4.57	65
Glen Perkins	3.36	0.9051	2.29	4.57	65
Aaron Sanchez	3.38	0.741	2.45	4.39	111
Homer Bailey	3.38	0.5456	2.68	4.11	185
Scott Atchison	3.39	1.0504	2.10	4.65	55
Sonny Gray	3.39	0.5428	2.71	4.13	198
Al Alburquerque	3.40	1.0178	2.10	4.80	55
Aaron Loup	3.40	0.9383	2.29	4.70	65
Jeremy Affeldt	3.40	1.0748	2.10	4.80	55
Kevin Jepsen	3.40	1.0424	2.10	4.65	55
Andrew Cashner	3.41	0.5652	2.68	4.15	163
James Shields	3.41	0.5122	2.78	4.03	217
Masahiro Tanaka	3.42	0.5325	2.74	4.11	211
Ryan Cook	3.42	0.942	2.29	4.57	65
Charlie Furbush	3.43	1.0099	2.25	4.80	55
Adam Ottavino	3.43	0.98	2.25	4.80	55
Bryan Morris	3.43	0.9527	2.29	4.57	65
Francisco Rodriguez	3.43	0.9273	2.29	4.70	65
Gerrit Cole	3.43	0.5761	2.71	4.20	177
Brandon McCarthy	3.44	0.6	2.72	4.25	167
Jon Lester	3.44	0.5289	2.78	4.17	214
Anibal Sanchez	3.44	0.6053	2.68	4.20	163
Marc Rzepczynski	3.45	1.0693	2.10	4.95	55
John Lackey	3.45	0.5617	2.74	4.17	184
Danny Farquhar	3.45	1.0485	2.25	4.80	55
Hector Rondon	3.45	0.9467	2.29	4.70	65
Joel Peralta	3.46	1.0085	2.25	4.80	55
Tanner Scheppers	3.46	1.0602	2.25	4.95	55
Manny Parra	3.47	1.0324	2.25	4.80	55
Alex Wood	3.47	0.601	2.70	4.22	174
Brandon Maurer	3.48	0.9885	2.29	4.83	65
Zach Putnam	3.49	1.0464	2.25	4.95	55
Michael Wacha	3.49	0.6123	2.72	4.27	149
Vinnie Pestano	3.49	1.044	2.25	4.80	55
Aaron Barrett	3.51	1.0368	2.25	4.95	55
Carter Capps	3.51	1.0486	2.25	4.95	55
Adam Wainwright	3.52	0.5307	2.89	4.28	197
Gio Gonzalez	3.52	0.5949	2.80	4.28	162
Tommy Hunter	3.52	1.0176	2.25	4.80	55
Doug Fister	3.54	0.5537	2.84	4.21	192
David Carpenter	3.54	1.0111	2.25	4.95	55
Jim Johnson	3.54	1.0503	2.25	4.80	55
Tony Cingrani	3.55	0.6405	2.73	4.37	157
Tim Hudson	3.55	0.5813	2.78	4.29	181
Mike Dunn	3.56	1.0809	2.25	4.95	55
Jake Diekman	3.56	1.0987	2.25	4.95	55
Jason Grilli	3.56	0.9781	2.29	4.83	65
Jordan Zimmermann	3.56	0.5651	2.85	4.28	191
Edward Mujica	3.56	1.0649	2.25	4.95	55
Nicholas Tropeano	3.56	1.0113	2.36	4.85	63
Brian Matusz	3.57	1.0469	2.25	4.95	55
Tony Sipp	3.57	1.0523	2.25	4.95	55
A.J. Burnett	3.57	0.5922	2.83	4.31	184
James Paxton	3.58	0.5975	2.87	4.37	170
Jason Motte	3.58	1.0675	2.25	4.95	55
Bryan Shaw	3.59	0.9915	2.29	4.83	65
Drew Smyly	3.59	0.6731	2.73	4.44	121
Jake Petricka	3.59	1.1099	2.25	4.95	55
John Axford	3.59	1.0771	2.25	5.10	55
Oliver Perez	3.60	1.0619	2.25	4.95	55
Brandon League	3.60	1.1057	2.25	5.10	55
Shawn Tolleson	3.61	0.9851	2.41	4.95	65
Brandon Morrow	3.61	0.8482	2.59	4.68	83
Matt Garza	3.61	0.602	2.84	4.35	186
Tom Wilhelmsen	3.62	0.999	2.41	4.83	65
Matt Shoemaker	3.62	0.5711	2.91	4.38	196
Huston Street	3.62	0.9777	2.41	4.95	65
Jake Arrieta	3.63	0.6216	2.89	4.46	163
Carlos Martinez	3.64	0.7574	2.64	4.65	119
CC Sabathia	3.64	0.5353	2.95	4.33	210
Scott Kazmir	3.65	0.5847	2.89	4.43	177
T.J. House	3.65	0.6736	2.79	4.51	139
Casey Fien	3.65	0.9081	2.41	4.83	65
Danny Salazar	3.65	0.6565	2.85	4.50	145
Yusmeiro Petit	3.66	0.7967	2.60	4.76	92
Antonio Bastardo	3.66	0.9872	2.41	4.95	65
Yordano Ventura	3.66	0.5971	2.94	4.46	174
Derek Holland	3.67	0.5852	2.92	4.40	195
Jacob deGrom	3.68	0.618	2.90	4.45	165
Addison Reed	3.68	0.9599	2.54	4.95	65
Odrisamer Despaigne	3.68	0.8062	2.66	4.79	93
Roman Mendez	3.68	1.0628	2.40	5.10	55
Mike Leake	3.68	0.5955	2.92	4.47	181
Phil Hughes	3.69	0.5519	3.04	4.37	204
Kyle Hendricks	3.70	0.7039	2.79	4.72	133
Drew Hutchison	3.71	0.5981	2.97	4.50	167
Ian Kennedy	3.71	0.5552	2.97	4.38	200
Wily Peralta	3.71	0.6167	2.89	4.50	180
Marco Estrada	3.71	0.5686	3.02	4.44	175
Trevor Cahill	3.71	0.8386	2.66	4.79	93
Jose Quintana	3.72	0.5601	3.01	4.40	184
Vic Black	3.72	1.0909	2.25	5.25	55
Lance Lynn	3.73	0.6035	2.93	4.51	183
Wade Miley	3.73	0.6149	2.96	4.53	173
Junichi Tazawa	3.73	0.9984	2.54	5.08	65
Rick Porcello	3.74	0.5783	2.99	4.51	196
Adam Warren	3.74	1.1395	2.25	5.40	55
Chad Jenkins	3.75	1.0838	2.40	5.25	55
Jon Niese	3.75	0.5856	3.02	4.55	178
Jesse Chavez	3.76	0.9539	2.61	4.89	76
Ivan Nova	3.77	0.7684	2.78	4.75	113
Andrew Heaney	3.78	1.0067	2.54	5.08	65
Justin Masterson	3.78	0.6307	2.97	4.65	167
Jake Peavy	3.78	0.5942	3.04	4.54	171
Shelby Miller	3.79	0.6033	3.02	4.55	167
Jason Hammel	3.79	0.6466	2.97	4.67	161
Mike Fiers	3.80	0.6248	3.03	4.64	169
Edwin Jackson	3.80	0.8106	2.75	4.82	96
Julio Teheran	3.81	0.5734	3.10	4.53	197
Chris Archer	3.81	0.5746	3.08	4.58	182
Dan Haren	3.81	0.6487	2.98	4.65	158
Drew Pomeranz	3.81	0.6578	2.99	4.70	160
Tanner Roark	3.81	0.8193	2.78	4.87	95
Charlie Morton	3.82	1.0282	2.50	5.13	66
Dillon Gee	3.82	0.9141	2.61	5.02	79
Justin Verlander	3.82	0.5677	3.08	4.54	209
Henderson Alvarez	3.83	0.6213	3.03	4.63	166
Clay Buchholz	3.83	0.5991	3.12	4.59	180
Bartolo Colon	3.83	0.5855	3.10	4.60	176
Zach McAllister	3.83	0.8634	2.79	4.97	83
Matt Cain	3.84	0.6275	3.05	4.67	168
Yovani Gallardo	3.84	0.6061	3.07	4.65	183
Randall Delgado	3.85	0.9075	2.79	5.07	83
Dan Otero	3.86	1.1145	2.55	5.25	55
Wandy Rodriguez	3.86	0.9873	2.67	5.08	65
Casey Janssen	3.86	1.0046	2.67	5.08	65
Mat Latos	3.88	0.5777	3.18	4.64	192
LaTroy Hawkins	3.89	0.9977	2.67	5.21	65
Tim Lincecum	3.89	0.694	3.04	4.78	152
J.A. Happ	3.89	0.6553	3.03	4.76	158
Jimmy Nelson	3.90	0.6801	3.03	4.76	158
Tsuyoshi Wada	3.90	0.8679	2.84	5.15	93
Alex Torres	3.90	1.1024	2.55	5.25	55
Mike Minor	3.90	0.6775	3.07	4.84	145
Kyle Gibson	3.91	0.6738	3.05	4.75	146
Daniel Norris	3.91	0.7077	3.03	4.87	139
R.A. Dickey	3.91	0.5525	3.24	4.58	209
Felix Doubront	3.91	0.9749	2.67	5.22	68
Ricky Nolasco	3.92	0.6063	3.17	4.70	172
Jeff Locke	3.93	0.6709	3.08	4.81	158
Shane Greene	3.93	0.7201	2.99	4.89	130
Tyler Matzek	3.93	0.7205	3.08	4.87	134
Collin McHugh	3.94	0.5866	3.23	4.73	192
Chase Anderson	3.94	0.8657	2.90	5.09	94
Vance Worley	3.94	0.7281	2.98	4.87	122
Sam LeCure	3.94	1.0285	2.67	5.21	65
Josh Tomlin	3.95	0.9274	2.79	5.15	77
Jorge de la Rosa	3.95	0.6186	3.22	4.74	190
Joba Chamberlain	3.95	1.113	2.55	5.40	55
Vidal Nuno	3.95	0.9432	2.79	5.23	71
Justin De Fratus	3.96	1.1003	2.55	5.40	55
Todd Redmond	3.96	1.1402	2.55	5.40	55
Samuel Deduno	3.97	1.1274	2.56	5.41	58
Ervin Santana	3.97	0.5772	3.20	4.72	201
Jarred Cosart	3.97	0.8238	2.94	5.08	104
Jim Henderson	3.99	1.1161	2.55	5.40	55
Kyle Lohse	4.00	0.5876	3.25	4.75	193
Brian Wilson	4.00	1.0605	2.67	5.46	65
Grant Balfour	4.00	1.1704	2.55	5.55	55
Matt Moore	4.00	0.6593	3.19	4.86	158
Roenis Elias	4.00	0.6761	3.17	4.86	146
Edinson Volquez	4.01	0.6614	3.17	4.88	159
Dan Straily	4.01	1.0583	2.62	5.37	63
Joe Nathan	4.01	1.07	2.67	5.46	65
Rubby de la Rosa	4.02	0.7285	3.11	4.97	138
Wei-Yin Chen	4.02	0.6002	3.26	4.81	175
Bud Norris	4.03	0.7745	3.05	5.01	122
C.J. Wilson	4.03	0.6035	3.28	4.85	194
Jerome Williams	4.04	0.8534	2.99	5.18	94
Nathan Eovaldi	4.04	0.6508	3.24	4.91	168
Jeremy Hellickson	4.04	0.6419	3.22	4.88	159
Marco Gonzales	4.04	0.9356	2.85	5.30	81
Jordan Lyles	4.04	0.899	2.93	5.15	93
Fernando Salas	4.06	1.1414	2.70	5.55	55
David Buchanan	4.06	0.7659	3.10	5.09	120
Chris Capuano	4.07	0.9097	2.90	5.24	74
Rafael Soriano	4.07	1.0371	2.79	5.46	65
David Phelps	4.08	0.9049	2.99	5.35	91
Ubaldo Jimenez	4.09	0.8497	2.99	5.27	105
Kevin Gausman	4.10	0.6513	3.30	4.95	160
Chris Tillman	4.10	0.5903	3.35	4.82	197
Buck Farmer	4.12	1.0869	2.75	5.50	57
James Russell	4.12	1.1494	2.70	5.55	55
Joe Kelly	4.12	0.728	3.24	5.07	140
Rex Brothers	4.13	1.0404	2.79	5.59	65
Brett Oberholtzer	4.13	0.6417	3.31	4.94	162
Tom Koehler	4.14	1.0215	2.88	5.50	66
Michael Tonkin	4.14	1.178	2.70	5.70	55
David Hale	4.14	1.1121	2.71	5.55	64
Neftali Feliz	4.14	1.0115	2.92	5.46	65
Danny Duffy	4.15	0.7153	3.27	5.05	139
Josh Collmenter	4.16	0.6189	3.37	4.98	184
Ross Detwiler	4.16	0.7115	3.27	5.11	139
Jesse Hahn	4.17	0.7277	3.30	5.13	140
Jason Vargas	4.22	0.6128	3.42	4.97	191
Kyle Kendrick	4.22	0.8152	3.26	5.29	114
Trevor Bauer	4.22	0.655	3.39	5.09	180
Kendall Graveman	4.22	0.8865	3.10	5.40	104
Jake Odorizzi	4.24	0.6678	3.41	5.04	167
Anthony Ranaudo	4.24	0.9862	2.94	5.66	73
Jered Weaver	4.25	0.6163	3.44	5.02	204
Ryan Vogelsong	4.26	0.9908	2.97	5.50	75
Andre Rienzo	4.27	0.9078	3.10	5.42	96
Aaron Harang	4.27	0.6737	3.44	5.17	163
Alfredo Simon	4.28	0.7333	3.34	5.20	146
Nate Karns	4.28	1.0111	3.00	5.58	77
Mark Buehrle	4.28	0.5929	3.52	5.06	204
Jumbo Diaz	4.28	1.2019	2.85	6.01	55
Hector Santiago	4.29	0.7282	3.35	5.25	143
Tim Stauffer	4.31	1.0572	3.04	5.59	68
Tommy Milone	4.31	0.917	3.15	5.50	84
Anthony DeSclafani	4.32	0.7591	3.33	5.29	139
Allen Webster	4.32	0.7914	3.33	5.34	119
Brad Peacock	4.34	0.8043	3.36	5.37	123
Miguel Gonzalez	4.38	0.755	3.41	5.34	133
Colby Lewis	4.41	0.7113	3.51	5.36	148
Jeremy Guthrie	4.43	0.6143	3.60	5.25	195
John Danks	4.44	0.7597	3.48	5.40	133
Mike Pelfrey	4.48	1.0363	3.17	5.88	73
Scott Feldman	4.48	0.6688	3.61	5.30	176
Caleb Thielbar	4.49	1.1555	3.00	6.01	55
Hector Noesi	4.50	0.7376	3.57	5.45	141
Travis Wood	4.54	0.7305	3.63	5.50	150
Craig Breslow	4.56	1.2375	3.00	6.16	55
Nick Tepesch	4.57	0.8926	3.48	5.74	95
Erik Johnson	4.58	1.1166	3.13	6.01	66
Alex Colome	4.59	0.9183	3.39	5.78	100
Eddie Butler	4.60	1.0215	3.24	6.00	84
Jhoulys Chacin	4.60	0.7152	3.74	5.52	172
Kevin Slowey	4.62	1.0616	3.26	6.08	76
Mike Foltynewicz	4.69	0.9802	3.46	5.95	86
Ethan Martin	4.82	1.1763	3.41	6.42	63
Chris Young	4.82	1.1825	3.33	6.37	57
Christian Bergman	5.03	1.1108	3.67	6.42	63
Miguel Gonzalez	5.64	1.1484	4.18	7.18	77